Pool C -- 2011

Started by Ralph Turner, October 09, 2011, 04:31:59 PM

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ncc_fan

Quote from: K-Mack on November 04, 2011, 01:19:05 AM
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 03, 2011, 01:17:28 PM
From a North Region perspective, there are a couple of things that I suspect will change when the list gets turned over to the national committee...

- I suspect that CWRU's result vs. Rochester will be factored and the Spartans will not be the first at-large team on the table from the North.  And it makes sense, really.  If you're selecting teams on a national basis for a national tournament, it just doesn't make sense or even seem fair to ignore such an important D-III result. 

- I also suspect that Franklin's result against Whitewater will factor into their placement.  Perhaps if they had an Oshkoshish result against the Warhawks then they wouldn't get dinged for that loss. 

And if Wheaton were to beat NCC but not by enough to prevent NCC from earning the AQ, doesn't it make sense that Wheaton would be seeded higher? They wo0uld have a better record, the h2h leverage, and would be co-champions of the CCIW (if one were to think that that label is important).

All of these things make sense.

Seedings do not necessarily rank the AQ winner higher. Just as recently as last season we saw Hampden-Sydney play a home game and W&L get sent to Thomas More, for instance.

I don't see how you take a 9-1 Case with a flat SoS (No. 115, .500 right now) and a loss to Rochester over a 9-1 Illinois Wesleyan with a loss to North Central and a .574 (No. 35) SoS. I think it's safe to assume that would be rectified should both teams end the season with those records, although it's legitimate to ask why would they be ranked the way they are now if those are the facts now. Hmm.

Mike Leonard is thinking big picture. He was at the Stagg Bowl last year and really wants to get Franklin there someday. Playing Whitewater I think was the first step in trying to figure out what Franklin needs to do to get there. Unfortunately the 45-point loss is going to cost his this-year team a little bit. If it had played, say, DePauw and run the table, they'd get a better seed.

He gets it though. The playoffs will be a reward for this year's team. And otherwise, if you want to be the big dog, you gotta beat the big dog.

Better than #2 in the North?  It looks like the North committee has already rewarded Franklin, even though Franklin's record is less impressive than Case's.  Both are unbeaten in-region and have 1 loss overall, but Franklin has a lower SoS (0.459 vs CWRU's 0.498). 

wally_wabash

ncc_fan-

Obviously not better than #2 in the North...that's going to be UMU until further notice.  I think what is being said is that had Franklin taken on a different team and won, they would wind up with a very good seed...probably 2 or 3.  The expectation, mine at least, is that when this list gets turned over to the national committee, that Whitewater result is going to be factored in and Franklin will have a lower seed than you'd think by looking at this week's rankings.  I'd guess they'll wind up as a 4 or 5 if they get by Hanover next weekend. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

Ralph Turner

#152
Pool C bids.

Dodging a bullet...

UMU
Montclair State (in OT versus Rowan)
JHU in their quest for a higher bid


Providing flexibility to the committee to move teams around.

Thomas More with their loss today.

Trinity can lock up an undefeated season next week.  With no more than four undefeateds in the South Region, how about McMurry to Trinity and someone flown into UMHB.  JHU and and one loss Hampden-Sydney can host in the northern half of the bracket.

Or Wesley can host CNU




smedindy

Now we have teams like St. Olaf's, Wheaton and B-W on the 'board' with two losses.

I think all three are better than Case. But...

HScoach

Baldwin-Wallace season is going to likely end at 8-2 with a shocking loss to Capital as the back breaker.  BW was going in to score to ice the game, fumbles on the Capital 5 yard line, then to allows Capital a 95 yard drive in the last minute to lose 14-11.  Terribly costly loss.

BW is probably a better team than any Mount will face in the first 2 rounds of the playoffs. 
I find easily offended people rather offensive!

Statistics are like bikinis; what they reveal is interesting, what they hide is essential.

Mr. Ypsi

Quote from: HScoach on November 05, 2011, 07:28:56 PM
Baldwin-Wallace season is going to likely end at 8-2 with a shocking loss to Capital as the back breaker.  BW was going in to score to ice the game, fumbles on the Capital 5 yard line, then to allows Capital a 95 yard drive in the last minute to lose 14-11.  Terribly costly loss.

BW is probably a better team than any Mount will face in the first 2 rounds of the playoffs.

Since UMU seems destined to anchor the 'East' again, quite possibly BW is better than their first THREE opponents (though I'll reserve judgment on DelVal, and possibly Salisbury will be placed in the East).  On my North Region Fan Poll I moved BW up to 5th, behind only UMU, NCC, Wabash, and IWU (and that is a close call), and jumping Wheaton.

Ralph Turner

Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 02, 2011, 08:59:51 PM
Smed, do we need a Pool C yell practice for Wabash?

"Wabash Always Fights!"

There. How was that? ;)
I think that it worked.

smedindy


FCGrizzliesGrad

Picture is really beginning to clear up now... these aren't necessarily the top contenders for a Pool C bid... just teams with the potential for the best records

Conf        Team                      Record (conf) Region    Remaining game

CCIW: Illinois Wesleyan   8-1 (5-1) 8-1    vs Augustana
MAC:  Delaware Valley     9-0 (7-0) 9-0    vs Widener *Pool A with win*
MWC:  Illinois College    9-1 (8-1) 9-1    NONE
NEFC: Endicott            9-1 (7-1) 9-1    NONE
NWC:  Linfield            8-0 (5-0) 7-0    vs Lewis & Clark *Pool A with win*
SCAC: Centre              7-1 (4-1) 7-1    vs Rhodes
SCIAC Redlands            6-1 (4-1) 6-1    vs Whittier (tonight), @ Chapman


Pool B *one should be Pool B*
      Wesley              8-1       4-1    vs Huntingdon
      Case Western Reserve 8-1      8-0    @ Carnegie Mellon

One Loss in Region
ASC:  McMurry             7-2 (6-1) 6-1    vs Miss College
ECFC: SUNY-Maritime       7-2 (5-1) 7-1    @ Gallaudet


ASC:  None
CC:   None
E8:   None
ECFC: None
HCAC: None
IIAC: None
LL:   None
MIAA: None
MIAC: None
NAthC None
NCAC: None
NJAC: None
OAC:  None
ODAC: None
PAC:  None
UMAC: None
USAC: None
WIAC: None
Football picker extraordinaire
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3x: ASC, IIAC, MIAA:S, NACC:S, NCAC, OAC:P, Nat'l
2x: HCAC, MIAC, ODAC:P, WIAC
1x: Bracket, OAC:S

Basketball
2013 WIAC Pickem Co-champ
2015 Nat'l Pickem
2017: LEC and MIAA Pickem
2019: MIAA and WIAC Pickem

Soccer
2023: Mens Pickem

Ralph Turner

#159
I think that we may have a Pool C team with 2 in-region losses. Let's use the most recent Regional Rankings. I will eliminate those teams that have clinched.

East Region

1)  DVC                   8-0/9-0  hosts Widener for the MAC crown
2)  Hobart               6-1/6-1   at Rochester to clinch the LL bid.
4)  SJF                   7-2/7-2   E8; at Hartwick
5)  Montclair St        8-1/8-1   Hosts Kean for NJAC bid
6)  Kean                  8-1/8-1   at Montclair for NJAC
7)  Widener              7-1/8-1   at DVC for MAC
8)  Lycoming            6-2/7-2   FDU-Florham
9)  WNEC                 9-1/9-1   NEFC Championship Game
10) SUNY-Maritime     7-1/7-2   at Gallaudet

Clinched:  #3) Salisbury and NR Norwich are not listed.

South Region

#3  Wesley              4-1/8-1   Pool B; Hosts Huntingdon
#5  McMurry             6-1/7-2  Hosts Mississippi College
#6  Centre               7-1/7-1   Hosts Rhodes
#7  LaCollege            6-2/7-2   at Hardin-Simmons
#10 W&L                  8-2/8-2  Finished season

Clinched bids: #1 UMHB, #2 JHU, #4 Trinity, #8 Pres AC, #9 H-SC, NR CNU

North Region

#5  CWRU                8-0/8-1   Pool B; at Carnegie-Mellon
#6  IWU                   8-1/8-1   Hosts Augustana
#7  Wheaton IL         7-2/7-2   Hosts Millikin
#8  BWC                  7-2/7-2   Hosts John Carroll
#9  Witt                   5-2/7-2  Hosts Wooster

Clinched:  #1 UMU, #2 Franklin, #3 Wabash, #4 North Central, #10 Albion, NR Benedictine

West Region

#3 Linfield              7-0/8-0    Hosts Lewis and Clark
#5 St Olaf              7-2/7-2    Hosts Concordia-Moorhead
#8 Redlands            7-1/7-1   Playing Whittier tonight; at Chapman next week
#10 Lewis & Clark    7-1/7-1    Plays at Linfield

Clinched:  #1 UWW, #2 St Thomas, #4 Cal Lu, #6 Dubuque, #7 Monmouth, #9 St Scholastica 



And FCGG posted his update while I was working on mine.  :)

Ralph Turner

I am going to leave the projections to the committee.

So far, this is what I see.

South Region:  McMurry and Centre
West Region: Redlands
North Region:  CWRU and IWU
East Region:  Del Valley if they lose.

smedindy

And if Del Val wins out - chaos.

There's Illinois College with one loss in region saying "hey, regional records!"
There's B/W, the Kean / Montclair loser, Wheaton, and Louisiana College (among others) going, "We're better!"


Frank Rossi

Fisher would have a complaint with two losses to tournament teams, assuming Hobart beats Rochester next week.

smedindy

Though SJF's performance against Hobart may put them at the bottom of that list. 56-20 is hard to overlook.

ExTartanPlayer

Quote from: smedindy on November 05, 2011, 10:11:39 PM
There's B/W, the Kean / Montclair loser, Wheaton, and Louisiana College (among others) going, "We're better!"

Can't help but think that Baldwin-Wallace is REALLY going to regret that early-season loss to Capital...few teams have been as impressive as B-W over the last couple weeks, with five straight OAC wins in October, and rallying from a 19-0 deficit to take the lead in the second half AT Mount Union is no joke.
I was small but made up for it by being slow...

http://athletics.cmu.edu/sports/fball/2011-12/releases/20120629a4jaxa