Pool C Amateur Predictions and Prizes

Started by PaulNewman, November 10, 2019, 09:45:41 AM

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PaulNewman

Winner gets a full year subscription to University of Rochester athletics video streams.  As a parent of a fairly recent UR graduate, I remain mystified that UR cost me well over 200K (even after some decent merit aid), and I can't access UR matches for free (unlike almost every other major (and non-major) D3 program in the country). 


PaulNewman

#1
PaulNewman Pool C Predictions


1) Amherst
2) Tufts/Middlebury
3) Conn
4) Williams
5) WPI/Brandeis (a close one but I'm going with WPI even though a 3-3-1 record in the UAA often would correlate with a bid)
Sleeper choice:  ECSU if does not get AQ today)


6) RPI
7) Rochester

1-2 additional slots for East with Ithaca, Hobart and Clarkson with almost indistinguishable resumes bearing in mind that Clarkson's SoS should end up competitive with the other two based on last 3 games of Ithaca, RPI and Hobart although Clarkson would end up with 1-2 more blemishes....and noting that Ithaca had H2H on Hobart while Clarkson had H2H on Ithaca)....So I will go with...

8) Hobart/Clarkson "loser"
9) Ithaca (went back and forth on whether to give East another slot but Ithaca's 3 ranked wins may be difference compared to some teams in other regions....and while not being surprised if Ithaca is a casualty of their own making down the stretch)

10) JHU/F&M "loser"
11) Swarthmore (resume very similar to Conn Coll)
12) Gettysburg (fortunate with 11-7-1 record but sky-high SoS and 4-5-1 RvR which edges Haverford and Dickinson, also with shy-high SoS but with slightly inferior record and weaker RvR profile)

13) Christopher Newport
14) Centre (if doesn't get AQ)
15) Rowan (based on far superior SoS and superior RvR compared to Ramapo, Roanoke, etc and with chance for extra ranked win if MSU gets in final ranking)

16) OWU
17) Ohio Northern
(I have Mt Union and Otterbein on outside looking in but if there's another GL slot tough to call between those two as Otter has better SoS but an arguably tough to swallow 3-6 RvR while MTU is 2-3-2 or 2-4-2 on RvR and has two more blemished (9))

I was gonna pencil in KZoo until realizing that Hope beat KZoo twice which narrows the RvR advantage for KZoo to 3-3 versus 2-4-1 but with that head to head problem.  Also North Central and Wheaton right there and Wheaton would love to see UW-W in the final rankings....All those teams have very similar records and SoS.  I'm tempted to punt here, but what the heck, I'll go....

18) Hope
19) KZoo
20) North Central
Sleeper pick:  Wheaton

21) Central
(Does North get one more?  STU?  Loras?  Both with unattractive RvR but at least good number of ranked games.  Gut tells me neither deserving but that one will get in, so...)
(22) St Thomas
Sleeper:  Loras

23) Colorado Coll (if needed)
(Anybody notice that Trinity lost in SCAC semis?  On paper that would appear to end the Tigers' long consecutive NCAA run)
Sleeper pick:  Tex-Dallas or Hardin-Simmons (both low SoS but with couple of ranked wins)


That's total of 23 official picks above (not counting any sleeper picks) and with understanding that Centre, Colorado Coll may not need one....If Centre and/or Colorado get AQs, then my final additions in the 21 would be St Thomas, North Central and Ithaca.(corrected).

FelixCloudy

Quote from: Gregory Sager on November 08, 2019, 03:52:21 PM
The committee will not allocate Pool C berths upon the basis of geography. Geography is neither a primary nor a secondary criterion.
Quote from: Shooter McGavin on November 08, 2019, 02:17:37 PM
Geography and travel certainly is a factor with some selections, but for the most part the committee tends to do a good job of getting the teams in the tourney that deserve to be in and figure out how to make it work with the pods and geography. The exception here and there is traditionally the west region, as sometimes they get a team in because of this (deserving or not) and sometimes it works the other way and they don't get a team in as it would cause more problems. Now none of this can be proven and I don't find it to be done maliciously but more for costs and logic geographically as you mentioned earlier. It's hard to judge right now until we know which teams get the AQs and which teams are vying for a Pool C. 

The reason why you can't prove it is because it doesn't happen. Again, geography is not listed as a criterion in the selection process. Dave McHugh, who does the Final Four PBP in Greensboro and who has probably talked to more NCAA officials and to members of various D3 championships committees than the rest of us combined, will back me up on this.

I am a tad confused.  It looks like you are determining your prediction for Pool C bids by region - even though @Gregory Sager says that is not a factor (except for the 500 mile travel rule)? Given the extremely high SOS in the Mid Atlantic this year, isn't it possible they could have an additional Pool C team, and New England have one less?

PaulNewman

#3
I organized by region...nothing more.  5 for NE is actually less than half of total ranked teams for NE... bigger region.  I would pick both WPI and Brandeis to get in over another MA team, although I wouldn't be shocked to see Haverford get in.  I just think the Ford's and Dickinson have too many blemishes not sufficiently offset by RvR profiles.

FelixCloudy

Got it, and not advocating for any CC team at all per se - just trying to understand how WLT record, RvR and SOS affects the committee's decisions.  Is there some type of magic weighting formula that marries these three data points together?  Or simply voodoo magical judgment?  Three Pool C's for the MA is less than 1/3 of their 10 ranked teams, and if NE went to 4 Pool C's of 12 ranked teams that would be the same ratio.  And since it doesn't matter about the geography... that ratios don't even  matter, right?  Theoretically  a single region could have ALL their teams receive Pool C's if they were better than all the other D3 teams in the country?  Silly I know, just seeing if I understand the system.

Not brave enough yet to put out my own predictions - but pretty interesting to read and learn.

At the half - Dips and Hop are tied 1-1.  I completely agree that the loser is a lock for Pool C.

PaulNewman

#5
I'm gonna toss in Texas Lutheran as a possible "didn't see that coming" pick IF Tex Lutheran does not get AQ versus Colorado Coll.

Scratch that......Texas Lutheran up 2-0 will less than 20 to go.  Colorado College on the bubble and hoping for a bit of generosity towards the West region.

Off Pitch

#6
Pool C predictions: (listed by region)

New England:
1.  Amherst
2.  Connecticut College
3.  WPI
4.  Middlebury
5.  Williams

East:
6.  RPI
7.  Ithaca
8.  Rochester

Mid-Atlantic:
9.  Franklin and Marshall
10.  Swarthmore
11.  Haverford
12.  Gettysburg

South Atlantic
13.  Christopher Newport
14.  Ramapo
15.  Rowan

Great Lakes:
16.  Ohio Northern
17.  Ohio Wesleyan

Central:
18.  Kalamazoo

North:
19.  Central
20.  Loras

West:
21.  Colorado

PaulNewman

#7
PN's cleaned up version....

New England

1) Amherst
2) Midd
3) Conn Coll
4) Williams
5) WPI

Sleeper:  Brandeis

East

6) RPI
7) Rochester
8) Clarkson
9) Ithaca (I would leave Ithaca out but probably more likely for Clarkson to get left out despite big SoS jump and 2-0 H2H for Clarkson)

Mid-Atlantic

10) F&M
11) Swarthmore
12) Gettysburg (I would probably leave Getty out but Dickinson often is in this spot with a relatively mediocre profile)

Sleeper:  Haverford (Won't be surprised but SoS alone should not be enough to save the Fords...same imo with Dickinson)

South Atlantic

13) Christopher Newport
14) Rowan

Empathy pick:  Ramapo
Sleeper:  Roanoke
Condolences:  Oglethorpe

Great Lakes

15) OWU
16) Ohio Northern

Not shocked pick:  Otterbein

Central

17) Hope
18) KZoo
19) North Central

Sleeper:  Wheaton (tempted to switch with North Central based on very similar profile and better SoS although North Central has H2H and I should stick with original predictions)

North

20) Central

Sleeper:  St Thomas (one of toughest overall to make decision on and although less losses than Colorado Coll same # of blemishes and CC has two ranked wins....a toss-up imo really)

Sleeper #2:  Loras (not quite deserving imo based on RvR but even more than STU a tough name to pass over with such cache)

West

21) Colorado Coll (one of last two in or last two out....#sleepless in Colorado Springs)


"Didn't see coming picks" -- ECSU, Rose-Hulman, Covenant

Not surprised if we see picks -- Ramapo, Mt Union, Otterbein, Haverford, St Thomas, Roanoke, Hardin-Simmons, Wheaton



PaulNewman

I expected Clarkson's SoS to jump more than indicated in the D3soccer posted chart based on the trio of Ithaca, RPI and Hobart.  I was guessing a rise to .570 or .580 instead of the listed .551.

Shooter McGavin

#9
Shooter's Pool C Predictions
1. Amherst
2. F&M
3. RPI
4. Conn
5. CNU
6. OWU
7. Central
8. Williams
9. Rowan
10. ONU
11. Getty
12. Rochester
13. Kalamazoo
14. Swat
15. Middlebury
16. Hope
17. WPI
18. Otterbein
19. Trinity
20. Loras
21. Brandeis/Lycoming/Clarkson/Wheaton (Ill)/Haverford/Ithaca/Colorado

NE: 5
East: 2
MA: 4
SA: 2
GL: 3
Cen: 2
North: 2
West: 1


Shooter McGavin

Can't see St. Thomas getting in with 0 ranked wins. Not even on my radar to get selected but I guess we will find out tomorrow!  ;D

discnerd

Not worrying about which teams cause I have too much grading to do.  But here is my top 64 teams.  Invariably, some AQs are ranked below that cutoff and geographic restrictions get in the way of others.  Have fun picking!


RankingTeamRatingConference
1
Johns Hopkins
7.274983
CC
2
Mary Washington
6.404937
CAC
3
Christopher Newport
6.325505
CAC
4
Franklin and Marshall
6.058318
CC
5
Washington and Lee
5.861226
ODAC
6
Amherst
5.501767
NESCAC
7
Calvin
5.199598
MIAA
8
Tufts
4.758455
NESCAC
9
Oneonta State
4.453158
SUNYAC
10
Messiah
4.320247
MACC
11
Catholic
4.099097
LAND
12
Chicago
3.762664
UAA
13
Oglethorpe
3.74774
SAA
14
Gustavus Adolphus
3.743559
MIAC
15
Montclair State
3.642345
NJAC
16
Roanoke
3.604485
ODAC
17
Connecticut College
3.470335
NESCAC
18
Centre
3.367097
SAA
19
Covenant
3.305011
USAC
20
Kenyon
3.293775
NCAC
21
RPI
3.273092
LL
22
Middlebury
3.271638
NESCAC
23
Luther
3.254263
ARC
24
Ohio Wesleyan
3.177396
NCAC
25
Gettysburg
3.162307
CC
26
Claremont-Mudd-Scripps
3.116905
SCIAC
27
Eastern Connecticut
3.067903
LEC
28
Hobart
3.065598
LL
29
Rowan
3.020557
NJAC
30
Haverford
2.991523
CC
31
North Park
2.965349
CCIW
32
Babson
2.905477
NEWMAC
33
Williams
2.82497
NESCAC
34
Texas-Dallas
2.744419
ASC
35
John Carroll
2.74405
OAC
36
Rutgers-Camden
2.738131
NJAC
37
Loras
2.688357
ARC
38
St. Mary's (Md.)
2.687594
CAC
39
Swarthmore
2.626722
CC
40
Ramapo
2.61043
NJAC
41
Dickinson
2.58952
CC
42
Stockton
2.577122
NJAC
43
St. Thomas
2.538851
MIAC
44
Buffalo State
2.520615
SUNYAC
45
Ithaca
2.439258
LL
46
Texas Lutheran
2.403701
SCAC
47
Lynchburg
2.39488
ODAC
48
Brandeis
2.392352
UAA
49
WPI
2.319292
NEWMAC
50
Salisbury
2.306771
CAC
51
Lycoming
2.272534
MACC
52
Muhlenberg
2.220837
CC
53
Colorado College
2.193662
SCAC
54
Hope
2.144634
MIAA
55
Wheaton (Ill.)
2.138748
CCIW
56
Trinity (Texas)
2.120328
SCAC
57
Cortland State
2.118712
SUNYAC
58
Clarkson
2.086891
LL
59
York (Pa.)
2.081022
CAC
60
Hardin-Simmons
2.08095
ASC
61
Otterbein
2.022242
OAC
62
North Carolina Wesleyan
2.005021
USAC
63
Pacific Lutheran
1.965622
NWC
64
TCNJ
1.946055
NJAC




Ron Boerger

Quote from: PaulNewman on November 10, 2019, 11:11:53 AM
PaulNewman Pool C Predictions
...
(Anybody notice that Trinity lost in SCAC semis?  On paper that would appear to end the Tigers' long consecutive NCAA run)


Yes.  After playing the sophomore keeper in the first round who hadn't allowed a goal all season (in admittedly limited time; 2 starts, 6 total appearances, 10 shots faced in 344 minutes), Trinity went back to the guy who only stopped 60% of shots faced this year.  Sure enough, he stopped 60% on Saturday, allowing 2 goals on 5 SOG.   

Their women also lost (for the first time in 130+ conference games) on Sunday, so it's possible Trinity(TX) won't have any representation in the soccer playoffs for the first time since last century (tho I think the women's resume is much better than the men's). 

Domino1195

First 10-12 selections seemed to be fairly straight-forward. The last three in/out - very difficult. Spoke to the baseball coach at Kenyon on Saturday - he told me how brutal the final hours of "that phone call" can be.

Central: Hope
East: Rensselaer, Rochester, Ithaca**, Clarkson**
GL: Ohio Wesleyan, Ohio Northern
MA: Franklin & Marshall, Gettysburg, Dickinson, Haverford, Swarthmore
NE: Connecticut Col., Middlebury, Amherst, Williams
North: Central (IA), North Central (IL)**
SA: Chris. Newport, Oglethorpe, Rowan**

Ithaca, Clarkson, Rowan, North Central - last four in.

Will completely understand if only one of Dickinson and Haverford gets in.  Same for Ithaca and Clarkson.  Ithaca's record last 7,8 games not good at all - committee might take current form into consideration on this one - have to give Clarkson the nod.

Rowan over Ramapo based on SOS and 2 more games vs ranked, but again would not be surprised if the nod goes the other way.

ONU over Otterbein - SOS, RvR and head-to-head favor ONU.

Hope over K'zoo - SOS a wash, K'zoo better RvR but Hope 2-0 head-to-head and going to PK's in the final against Calvin.  Makes you wonder about the canceled game K'zoo had vs UChicago . . .

Great Lakes Hosts: JCU and Kenyon.  Hanover, PSU-B and ONU at Kenyon. Centre, Wash&Jeff, and Hope at JCU.

Mid-Atlantic Fan

MAF Pool C Projections
1. F&M
2. Amherst
3. RPI
4. Conn Coll
5. OWU
6. CNU
7. Rowan
8. ONU
9. Williams
10. Gettysburg
11. Central
12. Kalamazoo
13. Rochester
14. Middlebury
15. Swat
16. Hope
17. WPI
18. Loras
19. Otterbein
20. Colorado
21. Lycoming
-------------------------------
22. Brandeis
23. Ithaca/Clarkson (whoever is ahead of the other in region)
24. Ithaca/Clarkson (whoever is behind the other in region)
25. Haverford
26. North Central (Ill)
27. Oglethorpe
28. Wheaton (Ill)
29. Mt. Union
30. Trinity (Tx)
31. St. Thomas
32. Dickinson
33. Ramapo/Roanoke

Slots #18 thru #30 are a complete toss up as I can see any of those teams battling for the last 4 places of #18-#21.