FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

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BashDad

Quote from: wally_wabash on September 03, 2014, 07:57:17 PM
We've spent a lot of time dissecting 2013 results and stats and under normal circumstances that's probably not a great use of time, but this is different.  Both of these teams return such a large percentage of their 2013 starting units that what happened in 2013 is relevant.  These are the same teams, just a year older.

With one Tyler-Holmes-sized difference. That dude looked like a conference PoY and AA candidate in 6 quarters last year. He looked mega-good. There's no telling what that team becomes against a Witt-caliber program with #25 pounding the rock. And there's really no telling what he--and Zureck--do on Saturday. Last year can't tell us that.

Quote from: wally_wabash on September 03, 2014, 07:57:17 PM
Woods switching to the CB spot has to be a response to the Witt game last year with eye toward preventing the same on Saturday.  Mr. Woods will be in the spotlight on Saturday and a lot of Wabash's success will depend on how well he blankets Walker.  This is some serious hombre y hombre stuff going on here.  It's the kind of singular matchup challenge that we don't get to see too often here.

This is such an awesome point. I love that you made this point. This is the best point ever.

I can't wait until Saturday.

HSCTiger fan

Wally great analysis.  Just a couple of points I'd like to add.  HSC starts Seniors at QB (5th year) RB, WR, WR (5th year), and TE. The other WR is a 4th year Junior. I think this experience will be huge against the young DBs of Wabash who starts 3 Sophomores and 1 Junior.  I don't know any of the Wabash players but covering Walker with your 6'1" CB still leaves your other 5'9" CB covering HSC's 6'5" Mey.

You failed to mention kicking game. Big games often hinge on kicking. HSC returns from injury the 2012 all-ODAC kicker. I see from the depth chart Wabash starts a Soph is this his first year start?

I see where your coming from with the lower than expected point total.  It's a logical well thought argument.  However, there's a 98% chance HSC scores more than 17 points. Over their last 50 regular season games the Tigers were held to 17 or less only once. That was last year they only scored 7 against CNU in a game they turned the ball over an unbelievable but true 8 times.

HSC had 28 turnovers last season. Way too many. But when you boil it down 13 of these turnovers came in 2 games.  15 turnovers in the other 10 games.  If HSC can avoid the the meltdown they had against CNU and RMC they will be fine.  I think for Wabash to win they have to be + 3 in turnovers. I see HSC dropping 45 on the board and Wabash will not be able to keep up IF HSC DOES NOT TURN OVER THE BALL. That is a really big "if". I say take 6 points away from HSC for every + in turnovers for Wabash. So if TOs are +3 for Wabash I see a final of 27 to 31 Wabash.  If HSC is + 3 in turnovers it will be ugly for the LGs.
Hampden Sydney College
ODAC Champions 77, 82, 83, 87, 07, 09, 11, 13, 14
NCAA Playoffs - 77, 07, 09, 10, 11, 13, 14
The "Game" 60 wins and counting...
11/18/2018 Wally referred to me as Chief and admitted "I don't know about that!"

BashDad

Quote from: HSCTiger fan on September 03, 2014, 09:54:09 PM
I think for Wabash to win they have to be + 3 in turnovers. I see HSC dropping 45 on the board and Wabash will not be able to keep up IF HSC DOES NOT TURN OVER THE BALL.

No.

DPU3619

#28518
I agree with no. HSC would have to play Wabash at least twice to get to a number that starts with 4. Wabash played a horrible game against one of the best offenses I've ever seen at the D3 level (2013 Wittenberg) and that ended up being 35. HSC's Q isn't Reed Florence. He's really, really good. Good skill players, too. I've seen tape on HSC. But it ain't last year's Witt.

BashDad

If HSC wins, it will be because their defense scored at least once and Nash began drives routinely on the W side of the field.

bashbrother

#28520
HSC Tiger Fan -

You need to relax before you have a heart attack....  Sorry a majority of everyone on the Pick-ems (all conferences with this game listed)  are not giving your Tigers enough respect.... (make sure to run over and add those up) Sorry your ODAC board has like 6 people posting and 3 are not HSC posters.  Your team is good... we get it.   You have Superman and the Flash in the backfield... again.. we get it.   You have one player on your team with 3 legs and he can jump 50 ft high.... Another that runs a 3.47 40... Another that could have played from Virgina Tech but decided to play at HSC for the love of the game.... and.... we get it.   

http://youtu.be/JGARHaQghRI

Its getting a little boring...  I knew what was coming after Wally's balanced and insightful post.     



Why should you go for it on 4th down?

"To overcome the disappointment of not making it on third down." -- Washington State Coach Mike Leach

sigma one

Also leaves your 5-10 corners, who weigh 170 and 150 lbs, covering 6-3, 221 lb Sammy Adams.  Etc, Etc, Etc.
     

DPU3619

#28522
Also, if memory serves, Wabash led the NCAA last year in turnover margin. Across all divisions. I severely doubt HSC ends this thing +3 in turnovers.

wally_wabash

Quote from: HSCTiger fan on September 03, 2014, 09:54:09 PM
Wally great analysis.  Just a couple of points I'd like to add.  HSC starts Seniors at QB (5th year) RB, WR, WR (5th year), and TE. The other WR is a 4th year Junior. I think this experience will be huge against the young DBs of Wabash who starts 3 Sophomores and 1 Junior.  I don't know any of the Wabash players but covering Walker with your 6'1" CB still leaves your other 5'9" CB covering HSC's 6'5" Mey.

Holton Walker caught 111 balls last year.  Michael Mey caught 18.  Michael Mey is not the All-American I'm worried about. 

Also, I think you read the 2-deep wrong.  Wabash's starting secondary has:
CB- Delon Pettiford, soph: he started all 10 games last year.  He's good.  He actually made the front photo on D3football.com in his first game.  He can go. 
CB- Justin Woods, junior- Woods started some at safety as a freshman, started every game last year (well, all but one now that I think about it).  He's the guy Wabash moved to corner. 
SS- Eddie Cmehil, junior - WR as a freshman, moved to defensive back last year.  I can't find a season long participation roster at the moment, but I'm pretty sure he started all 10 games. 
FS - Austin Brown, soph - he's the new guy...first start on Saturday

And then there's senior Houston Hodges who has started at defensive back from day one at Wabash.  He started dabbling at WR midway through 2012, played both ways all of last year.  He's not on the defensive two-deep, but don't be shocked if he gets in if/when the situation calls for an extra DB.  There's plenty of experience back there.  Don't worry. 

Quote from: HSCTiger fan on September 03, 2014, 09:54:09 PM
You failed to mention kicking game. Big games often hinge on kicking. HSC returns from injury the 2012 all-ODAC kicker. I see from the depth chart Wabash starts a Soph is this his first year start?

Yeah, we've got new kickers this year.  Look, I didn't break down the kicking game because I don't think that's the tipping point.  Maybe the game comes down to a kick at the end?  I'm predicting a close game, so it might.  Your all-league kicker was 9-13 with a long of 34.  If we're saying right now that this thing comes down to Antwerpes lining up for a 40-harder to win at the horn, I'll let you take it.  Wabash has been fortunate to have a pair of stellar kickers over the last four years (last year's PK is now kicking at Purdue as you may have read).  That's an outlier in D3.  Guys that have accurate 40+ yard legs just aren't around.  Mostly, things much beyond 30 yards are coin flips and there's not much to break down in a coin flip. 

Experience at the kicker position?  Meh.  The biggest kick (this one's for you, Wes) in DePauw history was a 42-yarder at the horn off of the foot of a kid making his first kick in college ever.  In the Monon Bell game.  If you tell me Wabash has the lead with 3 seconds left and anybody in D3 has a 42 yarder to win, I'll take it.  Wabash is winning that game 9 times out of 10. 

Quote from: HSCTiger fan on September 03, 2014, 09:54:09 PM
I see where your coming from with the lower than expected point total.  It's a logical well thought argument.  However, there's a 98% chance HSC scores more than 17 points. Over their last 50 regular season games the Tigers were held to 17 or less only once. That was last year they only scored 7 against CNU in a game they turned the ball over an unbelievable but true 8 times.

HSC had 28 turnovers last season. Way too many. But when you boil it down 13 of these turnovers came in 2 games.  15 turnovers in the other 10 games.  If HSC can avoid the the meltdown they had against CNU and RMC they will be fine.  I think for Wabash to win they have to be + 3 in turnovers. I see HSC dropping 45 on the board and Wabash will not be able to keep up IF HSC DOES NOT TURN OVER THE BALL. That is a really big "if". I say take 6 points away from HSC for every + in turnovers for Wabash. So if TOs are +3 for Wabash I see a final of 27 to 31 Wabash.  If HSC is + 3 in turnovers it will be ugly for the LGs.

I love the "if you don't count all of these turnovers that happened then we didn't have all that many turnovers" game.  The turnovers happened.  Hampden-Sydney gets to own every last one of them.  I don't know if that means that they'll turn it over on Saturday. But they definitely showed a tendency to give it away in 2013. 

45 points?  If Hampden-Sydney drops 45 on Wabash on Saturday, I'll sport a Hampden-Sydney logo as my avatar until Wabash's next game. 

Fun trivia- without looking it up, when was the last time somebody laid 45 on Wabash? Hint: it's been a minute.
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

HSCTiger fan

I've watched film too. Your right Wittenberg is not anything like HSC. You'll see more open back fields than 2 TE sets.  Preparing for HSC is not easy to replicate. 100% non-traditional. It's a cross between, the spread, run and shoot, razzle dazzle, heavy metal and chaos.

Bashbrother I do wish more fans were on the ODAC board. That way we could all sit around and talk about how good we are - much like what you guys do on this board.

I'm not trashing Wally's balanced and insightful post. I added to it. Nothing in my comments were throwing any player or fan under the bus. It's true we have a 6'5" receiver that Wabash will have to try and cover with someone. It appears that someone is listed at 5'9. It's true kicking is important in big games. I feel as strong about my team as yours.  Heck I agreed with Wally that Wabash wins if they get 3+ turnovers.  I just felt there would be a few more points.

Which of these points do you take such great offense too?  My opinion does not mean anything. Heck I could say I think HSC will score 70. It means nothing.  My opinion of 45 points was based on ZERO HSC turnovers. I don't think that's far fetched because I know the HSC offense. You think it's crazy because you know the Wabash defense. It's all good. I love to hear from you guys as to why I'm nuts. It's not personal. Wally might think I'm nuts but at least he comes back with valid points

Btw -I've never looked at a pick-em. So we aren't getting many votes to win?  That's too bad. But I doubt I have a heart attack because of it.
.
Hampden Sydney College
ODAC Champions 77, 82, 83, 87, 07, 09, 11, 13, 14
NCAA Playoffs - 77, 07, 09, 10, 11, 13, 14
The "Game" 60 wins and counting...
11/18/2018 Wally referred to me as Chief and admitted "I don't know about that!"

wally_wabash

Follow up on my 45 points bet.  I'm not saying "PFFT.  There is NO way they're getting 45!"  That's definitely on the table.  If either one of these teams has the first game bads and the other side doesn't, it's gonna get messy.  These players are all too good to not make you look bad if you don't play well.  I don't think the Tigers are getting near 45 on Saturday, but I don't think it's off the table. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

bashbrother

Whitewater- playoff game?  A guess.
Why should you go for it on 4th down?

"To overcome the disappointment of not making it on third down." -- Washington State Coach Mike Leach

wally_wabash

Quote from: HSCTiger fan on September 03, 2014, 11:42:16 PM
It's true we have a 6'5" receiver that Wabash will have to try and cover with someone.

Serious question.  How hard do you have to cover a guy that gets targeted at a ratio of something less than 10:1 to the guy on the other side of the field? 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

HSCTiger fan

#28528
We hope you don't cover him at all. He missed several games last year with injuries. He did have a huge catch for 47 yards against Linfield that set up a TD. He had another deep catch against RMC that also set up a TD.
Hampden Sydney College
ODAC Champions 77, 82, 83, 87, 07, 09, 11, 13, 14
NCAA Playoffs - 77, 07, 09, 10, 11, 13, 14
The "Game" 60 wins and counting...
11/18/2018 Wally referred to me as Chief and admitted "I don't know about that!"

HSCTiger fan

Hampden Sydney College
ODAC Champions 77, 82, 83, 87, 07, 09, 11, 13, 14
NCAA Playoffs - 77, 07, 09, 10, 11, 13, 14
The "Game" 60 wins and counting...
11/18/2018 Wally referred to me as Chief and admitted "I don't know about that!"