Pool C -- 2012

Started by wally_wabash, August 31, 2012, 11:19:36 AM

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wabndy

OK - next pool C question.  This only applies to the first set of regional rankings.  As we know, the primary criteria includes "In-region results versus regionally ranked teams" and secondary criteria includes "Results versus all Division III ranked teams."

I understand the "once a ranked team, always a ranked team" thing.  For this first round of rankings, how does the committee get past the chicken and the egg problem?  Do they come up with a provisional list of rankings and then adjust based on results against regionally ranked opponents?  For the secondary criteria - does each regional committee share its draft rankings to the other regional committees?  Or are these particular criteria not given as much weight in the first round of regional rankings.  Wouldn't this chicken and egg problem still potentially affect round two or pre-selection rankings for teams who move into the regional rankings after the first set is released?

Pat Coleman

Heh -- you have hit on one of the great conundrums and I am not sure we have an answer for it. I believe the regional rankings are shared across at the level of the national committee call but I am not sure any adjustment of those rankings goes on any longer. I think that part is definitely reactive, as in a week behind, from the first call.
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East undefeated teams: Hobart & Widener
West undefeated teams: UW-O, Linfield, UST, & Coe
South undefeated teams: UMHB, Johns Hopkins, & Waynesburg
North undefeated teams: MUC & Concordia-Chicago

East one loss teams: Cortland State, Mount Ida, Framingham State, Bridgewater State, Rowan, & Salve Regina
West one loss teams:  Bethel, Cal Lutheran, Lake Forest, Northwestern (Minn.), & Concordia-Moorhead
South one loss teams: Wesley
North one loss teams: North Central (Ill.), Elmhurst,  Adrian, Wabash, Wittenberg, Baldwin Wallace, Franklin, Ohio Wesleyan, and Heidelberg


East two loss teams:  SJF, RPI, Utica, Castleton State, Norwich, Delaware Valley, Lycoming, Albright, Endicott, and Salisbury
West two loss teams: St. Norbert, Carroll, Pacific Lutheran, Whitworth, Chapman, St. Scholastica, St. Olaf, and Willamette
South two loss teams: Louisiana College, Gettysburg, Muhlenberg, H-SC, W&L, Bridgewater (Va.), W&J, Centre, & Ferrum, F&M, Huntingdon, Millsaps
North two loss teams: Wheaton, Hanover, Albion, Wisconsin Lutheran, John Carroll, Otterbein, Greenville, and Illinois Wesleyan

Notables with more than two losses: CNU, Redlands, Kenyon, Concordia (Wis.), Trine, Union (N.Y.) & Hardin-Simmons.


Mr. Ypsi

Sheesh - UWW can't even make your 'notables with more than two losses'?!!

How soon they forget the three-time repeat champ! 8-)

ExTartanPlayer

I assume that he's only including teams with a chance to make the playoffs in that "notables with more than two losses" - I didn't check all of them but I assume all are still alive for their conference's Pool A.
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Mr. Ypsi

Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on October 29, 2012, 08:48:31 PM
I assume that he's only including teams with a chance to make the playoffs in that "notables with more than two losses" - I didn't check all of them but I assume all are still alive for their conference's Pool A.

That would be my guess as well, but he didn't SAY that! ;)

FCGrizzliesGrad

How about Kenyon being a notable but UWW isn't ??? And they have the same record... everyone who predicted that before the season, can now be released from the asylum.
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smedindy

The coaches picked Kenyon to finish last in the NCAC. Yes, behind Hiram.

Ralph Turner

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on October 29, 2012, 09:20:10 PM
How about Kenyon being a notable but UWW isn't ??? And they have the same record... everyone who predicted that before the season, can now be released from the asylum.
Sign of the end times...


wally_wabash

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 29, 2012, 09:33:10 PM
Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on October 29, 2012, 09:20:10 PM
How about Kenyon being a notable but UWW isn't ??? And they have the same record... everyone who predicted that before the season, can now be released from the asylum.
Sign of the end times...

At least we're maintaining the purple quota up in here. 
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K-Mack

Quote from: wabndy on October 28, 2012, 09:20:37 PM
Are pool A bids seeded higher than pool C? Namely, if Wabash gets a pool C and Witt gets the AQ, would Witt probably get the higher seed? Pat- didn't someone on the committee tell you last year or the year before that they "never" released seedings?

Two separate issues. Once the 32 teams are selected, they are seeded accordingly no matter how they got in. So just because Witt might beat Bash in AQ tiebreaker scenarios SET BY THE CONFERENCES does not mean they will grade about better on the selection/seeding criteria USED BY THE COMMITTEE.

And to be clear, I have updated my position (and those of you who heard the podcast know) and it goes along with many of the posts I have read here: I think Witt is in line for the NCAC Pool A, but I think Wabash should be fine getting in via Pool C.

However, we shall see.
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K-Mack

Quote from: smedindy on October 29, 2012, 11:57:45 AM
Current SOS rankings for the one loss "C" candidates:

Wabash -13
Wittenberg - 116
Ohio Wesleyan - 89
Elmhurst - 56
Heidelberg -208
Baldwin Wallace - 201
Rowan -93
Bethel -22
Concordia - Moorhead - 30
Illinois College -219

Others:
Pacific Lutheran - 9
Huntingdon - 12
Louisiana College - 49
Willamette - 4
Lycoming - 31
St. John Fisher - 46
UW - Platteville - 52
Centre - 115
Millsaps - 74
Kean - 131

Wabash, Bethel and Elmhurst are in easy, it looks like, at 9-1. Which would be right IMO.

What could get really hairy is if six one-loss teams get in, and then a seventh spot goes to a single two-loss team. There are four teams with an SoS in or around the top 50, and will have 1-2 losses to RROs, and maybe all have zero wins vs. RROs.

It could come down to which teams did and didn't make it to the board to discuss for the 7th spot, and that would give the Eastern and Southern teams (perhaps) an advantage because they'll be on the board to begin with, given the lack of one-loss Pool C candidates to discuss from those regions.

Could make for a great discussion/recreation. Or a bunch of teams could play their way out and make most of this moot.
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wally_wabash

#177
While we wait for our regional top ten lists, it's a good time to examine Pool A I think.  This is what I see is going on...I'm almost certain to be wrong somewhere, so please correct me. 

ASC - UMHB needs one win in their last two to clinch this bid.  Probability: Certain. 
CC - Hopkins needs one win either this week against F&M or next week against winless McDaniel to clinch this bid. 
CCIW - North Central has a deathgrip on this thing.  Wheaton has to not only beat NCC, but they have to beat them by a lot for North Central to not win this bid. 
ECFC - Mount Ida and Castleton State will play for this bid on 11/10
E8 - Despite the loss to Ithaca, Salisbury can wrap this up with a win this Saturday against Utica.  If Utica wins, well, we'll just deal with that next week. 
HCAC - Hanover and Franklin will play for this bid, and their bell, on 11/10. 
IIAC - Coe has clinched a league title, but not a bid yet.  One more win by the Kohawks clinches a bid.  Or a Central loss against Wartburg on Saturday. 
LL - Hobart will wrap this up with one more win; they play winless St. Lawrence on Saturday. 
MAC - Widener clinches with two more wins or one win and a Del Val loss.  If Del Val beats Widener on 11/10, it may be a three way tie in the MAC. 
MWC - Lake Forest can clinch with a St. Norbert loss to Grinnell on Saturday or a win over St. Norbert on 11/10.  St. Norbert can force a three way tie by winning out which will apparently come down to the number of quarters led (INSANE).  (h/t to TitanPride for being on top of that)
MIAA - Adrian clinches with a win over Albion on Saturday.  If Albion wins, another potential three way tie. 
MIAC - St. Thomas clinches with a win against Concordia-Moorhead on Saturday.  A Cobbers win throws this into a three way tie and probably creates three playoff teams from this league. 
NEFC - Championship game between Framingham State and Salve Regina next Saturday. 
NJAC - Cortland State has clinched.  
NCAC - Super messy.  Possible four way tie exists here.  Most of the tiebreak scenarios appear to favor Wittenberg as the league's auto bid.  If Kenyon loses one of their last two, the tiebreak pendulum swings in favor of Wabash.  Tiebreak scenarios do NOT favor Kenyon or Ohio Wesleyan, so it looks like this will come down to the big red W's in the NCAC.  Stay tuned. 
NathCon - Concordia-Chicago clinches with one more win (they have 2-6 Lakeland and winless Maranatha Baptist left)
NWC - Linfield clinches with one more win (winless Puget Sound is next up)
OAC - Mount Union clinches with a victory over B-W.  A Baldwin-Wallace win sets the Jackets up...ah nevermind. 
ODAC - W&L and Hampden-Sydney are playing what looks like a de facto championship game on Saturday.  The winner may also need to win in week 11 to make sure.  ODAC's kind of messy at the moment. 
PAC - Waynesburg can clinch on their bye week with a W&J loss on Saturday.  If the Prez win, we get a winner take all game on 11/10 between Waynesburg and W&J. 
SCIAC - Cal Lutheran clinches with a Chapman loss or a pair of wins.  Chapman over Cal Lutheran on 11/10 could force a three way tie. 
UMAC - Championship game between Northwestern and Greenville on Saturday
USAC - Christopher Newport is in charge and clinches if they win out.
WIAC - UW-Oshkosh has clinched.
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dahlby

Wally:
Redlands could still garner the SCIAC auto-bid if  they win out and Cal Lu drops a game, which is doubtful, but they play the game for a reason. I believe the SCIAC has the "Rose Bowl" rule.

TitanPride

Wally -- Love your work.  Thanks for doing this. 

You did leave out the MWC (I think that's the only Pool A bid that you are missing).  Lake Forest (8-0 in conf.) is in the driver's seat.  They are off this week but can clinch a bid with a St. Norbert loss to Grinnell this Saturday or by beating St. Norbert on 11/10 in De Pere. 

Should St. Norbert beat both Grinnell and Lake Forest (coupled with an Illinois College loss to Cornell or Carroll), St. Norbert would get the Pool A bid.  A 3 way tiebreaker based on quarters led during conference play would come into play if both St. Norbert and Illinois College win out.