Pool C - 2017

Started by wally_wabash, October 09, 2017, 09:11:08 AM

Previous topic - Next topic

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

wally_wabash

Quote from: Andy Jamison - Walla Walla Wildcat on October 25, 2017, 01:13:53 PM
Wally - Now that GFU and Linfield played with the Cats winning a wet, windy game 12-6 do you think it is better for Fox's playoff hopes if Linfield wins out versus going losing a game.  I believe that the way that the NWC works is that the conference winner of the auto bid in the event of a tie is the head to result.

Linfield at 9-1 with the auto bid.  GFU at 8-2 with two losses and I'd guess a fairly high regional ranking.

Versus Linfield at 8-2 with the auto bid and GFU at 8-2 looking for a Pool C.

Just curious and really appreciate all the work that you put into this!

Yeah, the better Linfield finishes, the better it will be for George Fox's at-large chances.  A tight RRO loss against West #3/4 would sound better during an at large discussion than would a close loss to West #7/8. 

George Fox does have a tough road to hoe here though.  The West region is deep, Whitewater is out there potentially jamming everything up (GFU also really, really needs Platteville to beat Whitewater, btw.  Probably more important than whatever Linfield does, actually).  I think 8-2 is a tough spot for George Fox- they're among the top candidates with two losses for sure, but I don't know yet if there's going to be a lot of room for two-loss at-large teams this year. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

smedindy

I think GF will have a tough board. UW-Platteville could be there with one loss if they beat Whitewater. If not, they'll have two losses and a better SOS. There also will be a one-loss team from the MIAC and a strong two loss team. The West is a beast to get a Pool C normally, but this year it seems extraordinarily crowded with quality teams.

Potential RRs:

1. Oshkosh
2. St. Thomas
3. Platteville (with one loss)
4. Linfield (SOS will decrease)
5. Wartburg (SOS will decrease)
6. St. John's / C-M / G-Fox (if St. John's wins out, I think...think they'll have a better SOS than GFox, who will decrease...)
7. George Fox / C-M (This will be interesting...)
....

Fox could be third on the board in the west, and with five C's...well that'll be tough with Hardin-Simmons, F-M, Platteville, St. Johns, Ill. Wesleyan or Millikin, CWRU (if undefeated, which will be a big test much like Centre a few years ago...)

Wally can drill holes through this, but for any West Pool C contender, don't lose again, period.

smedindy

This is a year where instead of the ECAC bowls, we should have the D3 Non Playoff Bowls...

MonroviaCat

#48
Quote from: wally_wabash on October 25, 2017, 01:41:23 PM
Quote from: Andy Jamison - Walla Walla Wildcat on October 25, 2017, 01:13:53 PM
Wally - Now that GFU and Linfield played with the Cats winning a wet, windy game 12-6 do you think it is better for Fox's playoff hopes if Linfield wins out versus going losing a game.  I believe that the way that the NWC works is that the conference winner of the auto bid in the event of a tie is the head to result.

Linfield at 9-1 with the auto bid.  GFU at 8-2 with two losses and I'd guess a fairly high regional ranking.

Versus Linfield at 8-2 with the auto bid and GFU at 8-2 looking for a Pool C.

Just curious and really appreciate all the work that you put into this!

Yeah, the better Linfield finishes, the better it will be for George Fox's at-large chances.  A tight RRO loss against West #3/4 would sound better during an at large discussion than would a close loss to West #7/8. 

George Fox does have a tough road to hoe here though.  The West region is deep, Whitewater is out there potentially jamming everything up(GFU also really, really needs Platteville to beat Whitewater, btw .  Probably more important than whatever Linfield does, actually).  I think 8-2 is a tough spot for George Fox- they're among the top candidates with two losses for sure, but I don't know yet if there's going to be a lot of room for two-loss at-large teams this year.
explain this.  Are you saying a 3 loss Whitewater team has a shot at pool C over a 2 loss team (such as GFU)?  I understand how the process works but a 3 loss pool C team hasn't happened, right?    Or is it just that Whitewater beating Platteville then creates a logjam of sorts ( 2 loss Platteville Beat 2 loss Fox But  3 loss Whitewater beat Platteville so which team is the best of the 3)
Go Cats!

Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

Quote from: smedindy on October 25, 2017, 01:46:50 PM
This is a year where instead of the ECAC bowls, we should have the D3 Non Playoff Bowls...

Or in the case of more and more conferences... what you describe since they are skipping the ECAC bowls. :)
Host of Hoopsville. USBWA Executive Board member. Broadcast Director for D3sports.com. Broadcaster for NCAA.com & several colleges. PA Announcer for Gophers & Brigade. Follow me on Twitter: @davemchugh or @d3hoopsville.

merlecanlas

Quote from: MonroviaCat on October 25, 2017, 01:48:11 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on October 25, 2017, 01:41:23 PM
Quote from: Andy Jamison - Walla Walla Wildcat on October 25, 2017, 01:13:53 PM
Wally - Now that GFU and Linfield played with the Cats winning a wet, windy game 12-6 do you think it is better for Fox's playoff hopes if Linfield wins out versus going losing a game.  I believe that the way that the NWC works is that the conference winner of the auto bid in the event of a tie is the head to result.

Linfield at 9-1 with the auto bid.  GFU at 8-2 with two losses and I'd guess a fairly high regional ranking.

Versus Linfield at 8-2 with the auto bid and GFU at 8-2 looking for a Pool C.

Just curious and really appreciate all the work that you put into this!

Yeah, the better Linfield finishes, the better it will be for George Fox's at-large chances.  A tight RRO loss against West #3/4 would sound better during an at large discussion than would a close loss to West #7/8. 

George Fox does have a tough road to hoe here though.  The West region is deep, Whitewater is out there potentially jamming everything up(GFU also really, really needs Platteville to beat Whitewater, btw .  Probably more important than whatever Linfield does, actually).  I think 8-2 is a tough spot for George Fox- they're among the top candidates with two losses for sure, but I don't know yet if there's going to be a lot of room for two-loss at-large teams this year.
explain this.  Are you saying a 3 loss Whitewater team has a shot at pool C over a 2 loss team (such as GFU)?  I understand how the process works but a 3 loss pool C team hasn't happened, right?    Or is it just that Whitewater beating Platteville then creates a logjam of sorts ( 2 loss Platteville Beat 2 loss Fox But  3 loss Whitewater beat Platteville so which team is the best of the 3)

I think you are onto something.  UWW can't win the national title, but they can really mess up the postseason if they win out.

wally_wabash

Quote from: MonroviaCat on October 25, 2017, 01:48:11 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on October 25, 2017, 01:41:23 PM
Quote from: Andy Jamison - Walla Walla Wildcat on October 25, 2017, 01:13:53 PM
Wally - Now that GFU and Linfield played with the Cats winning a wet, windy game 12-6 do you think it is better for Fox's playoff hopes if Linfield wins out versus going losing a game.  I believe that the way that the NWC works is that the conference winner of the auto bid in the event of a tie is the head to result.

Linfield at 9-1 with the auto bid.  GFU at 8-2 with two losses and I'd guess a fairly high regional ranking.

Versus Linfield at 8-2 with the auto bid and GFU at 8-2 looking for a Pool C.

Just curious and really appreciate all the work that you put into this!

Yeah, the better Linfield finishes, the better it will be for George Fox's at-large chances.  A tight RRO loss against West #3/4 would sound better during an at large discussion than would a close loss to West #7/8. 

George Fox does have a tough road to hoe here though.  The West region is deep, Whitewater is out there potentially jamming everything up(GFU also really, really needs Platteville to beat Whitewater, btw .  Probably more important than whatever Linfield does, actually).  I think 8-2 is a tough spot for George Fox- they're among the top candidates with two losses for sure, but I don't know yet if there's going to be a lot of room for two-loss at-large teams this year.
explain this.  Are you saying a 3 loss Whitewater team has a shot at pool C over a 2 loss team (such as GFU)?  I understand how the process works but a 3 loss pool C team hasn't happened, right?    Or is it just that Whitewater beating Platteville then creates a logjam of sorts ( 2 loss Platteville Beat 2 loss Fox But  3 loss Whitewater beat Platteville so which team is the best of the 3)

Consider the scenario where Whitewater beats Platteville.  They'd end up with a 0.700 win percentage vs. Platteville's 0.800.  Advantage Platteville.  But then, I think Whitewater would also wind up being 1-3 vs. RROs which is a crazy amount of ranked results to have (results that, btw, are not at all ugly), maybe the #1 ranked SOS, and- here's the hammer- a fresh h2h win over Platteville.  Mix it all together and you could certainly have a scenario where UWW could and should be ranked ahead of UWP.  UWW has zero chance of being selected to the national tournament with three losses.  But they could wind up ranked higher than Platteville and basically serve as an at-large blocker for the rest of the region below the MIAC runner up. 

How does that domino to George Fox?  I think George Fox has to be anchored behind UWP based on the h2h.  I'm trying to see a way around that necessarily being the order, but I don't see anything in the portfolios of GFU or UWP that should trump that h2h result.  The SOS gap between the two is going to widen.  GFU has no more opportunities for a quality win.  GFU just kind of has to be ranked behind UWP if they end with the same record. 

Whitewater winning the rest of their games could really ruin a lot of things for a lot of teams in the west.  Of course the West committee could avoid that problem completely by ranking Whitewater lower than all of those teams based strictly on win percentage- the smart thing to do if they're actively trying to game the system and secure bids for their region.  And it wouldn't even be that fishy- but there are certainly valid reasons to rank 7-3 Whitewater ahead of 8-2 Platteville (and thus, 8-2 George Fox) as well.  Next week's regional rankings will be interesting. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

merlecanlas

Are you trying to say that the NCAA would make things easier on themselves and screw a member school rather than do the right thing?  I can't believe it

MonroviaCat

So basically, Whitewater winning could put a cork in the West Region's Pool C chances....
Go Cats!

wally_wabash

Quote from: merlecanlas on October 25, 2017, 03:02:26 PM
Are you trying to say that the NCAA would make things easier on themselves and screw a member school rather than do the right thing?  I can't believe it

I think I'm confused by this.  Which school is getting screwed-  GFU or UWW?

Quote from: MonroviaCat on October 25, 2017, 03:05:27 PM
So basically, Whitewater winning could put a cork in the West Region's Pool C chances....

Yes, exactly.  Although in this current year, any of the 8-2 teams are really in a tough spot no matter what.  Whitewater winding up ranked ahead of the 8-2 teams in the West would remove any slim chances those teams might have had. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

merlecanlas

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 25, 2017, 03:09:59 PM
Quote from: merlecanlas on October 25, 2017, 03:02:26 PM
Are you trying to say that the NCAA would make things easier on themselves and screw a member school rather than do the right thing?  I can't believe it

I think I'm confused by this.  Which school is getting screwed-  GFU or UWW?


I thought you said that instead of ranking 7-3 UWW ahead of UWP and the rest, and effectively blocking the West, that the NCAA could rank UWP/GFU ahead of UWW and "game the system"

Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

Quote from: merlecanlas on October 25, 2017, 03:14:11 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on October 25, 2017, 03:09:59 PM
Quote from: merlecanlas on October 25, 2017, 03:02:26 PM
Are you trying to say that the NCAA would make things easier on themselves and screw a member school rather than do the right thing?  I can't believe it

I think I'm confused by this.  Which school is getting screwed-  GFU or UWW?


I thought you said that instead of ranking 7-3 UWW ahead of UWP and the rest, and effectively blocking the West, that the NCAA could rank UWP/GFU ahead of UWW and "game the system"

Remember, those who initially rank the region is the regional committee and there is an argument that they are to do what is best for their region especially to position teams for at-large bids. That said, the final rankings are up to the national committee who can make whatever changes they want to keep things as universal across all regions as possible. The "NCAA" has nothing to do with it outside of these two committees. Decisions on travel and match-ups also play no role. It can sometimes be easy to blame the "NCAA" on things we don't like but these committees are made up of individuals from members schools. They make the decisions based on rules created by member institutions through convention vote or committees made up of members schools.
Host of Hoopsville. USBWA Executive Board member. Broadcast Director for D3sports.com. Broadcaster for NCAA.com & several colleges. PA Announcer for Gophers & Brigade. Follow me on Twitter: @davemchugh or @d3hoopsville.

merlecanlas

Quote from: Dave 'd-mac' McHugh on October 25, 2017, 03:18:29 PM
Quote from: merlecanlas on October 25, 2017, 03:14:11 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on October 25, 2017, 03:09:59 PM
Quote from: merlecanlas on October 25, 2017, 03:02:26 PM
Are you trying to say that the NCAA would make things easier on themselves and screw a member school rather than do the right thing?  I can't believe it

I think I'm confused by this.  Which school is getting screwed-  GFU or UWW?


I thought you said that instead of ranking 7-3 UWW ahead of UWP and the rest, and effectively blocking the West, that the NCAA could rank UWP/GFU ahead of UWW and "game the system"

Remember, those who initially rank the region is the regional committee and there is an argument that they are to do what is best for their region especially to position teams for at-large bids. That said, the final rankings are up to the national committee who can make whatever changes they want to keep things as universal across all regions as possible. The "NCAA" has nothing to do with it outside of these two committees. Decisions on travel and match-ups also play no role. It can sometimes be easy to blame the "NCAA" on things we don't like but these committees are made up of individuals from members schools. They make the decisions based on rules created by member institutions through convention vote or committees made up of members schools.

thanks for the explanation.  good stuff

wally_wabash

Quote from: merlecanlas on October 25, 2017, 03:14:11 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on October 25, 2017, 03:09:59 PM
Quote from: merlecanlas on October 25, 2017, 03:02:26 PM
Are you trying to say that the NCAA would make things easier on themselves and screw a member school rather than do the right thing?  I can't believe it

I think I'm confused by this.  Which school is getting screwed-  GFU or UWW?


I thought you said that instead of ranking 7-3 UWW ahead of UWP and the rest, and effectively blocking the West, that the NCAA could rank UWP/GFU ahead of UWW and "game the system"

Got it.  That could totally happen.  And while it wouldn't be a thing that I agreed with or the way I apply the criteria, it's justifiable.   Iv'e seen less explainable things in these regional rankings.  The folks on the West committee could/should be aware enough to know that a 7-3 team won't get selected.  If that influences their ranking of Whitewater on Nov. 11, who knows. 

Probably also a good time to try and curb blanketing these regional advisory committees as "The NCAA".  These regional committees are made up of coaches, school, and conference administrators from schools in their respective regions.  Ranking these teams within the construct of the limited criteria they have is really hard.  They take the job seriously, they care, they work hard at it, and I think deserve respect- even when we disagree. 

If you're curious about who is actually on each of the regional committees, you can look them up on pages 9-11 of the championship handbook.  Getting names and affiliations of the people involved I think helps to separate this activity from the larger "The NCAA", which is oftentimes worthy of all that shade.  But probably not these committees. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

smedindy

I do think the MIAC runner up with one loss will make it, then if everyone has 2 losses you're going to hope the rankings are in the West's favor.