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Messages - Wild Horse Rider

#1
I know it is unrelated to the pole but I just wanted to give a shout out to the big boys from Region 3.  The AFCA All American team came out this week and of the 5 first team OL three were from teams in our geographic neck of the woods.  Boatman from Belhaven, Valdez from Hardin-Simmons, and Hale from Randolph Macon.  I don't know if that is a record but I honestly don't care.  Congratulations to them and their teams.  For an individual offensive lineman to be recognized it would not be possible without the other 4 around them and the offense as a whole.  Great work!

And as far as settling the debate between Trinity and Randolph Macon I say each team selects one representative for a cage match.  Winner's team is the best in the region.  In either case I believe Friday night should be a fun one.
#2
The 2023 USAC season has come to an end.  Belhaven drew the buzz saw in the first round and did not make it to the second round of the playoffs but what a season for the Blazers.  As I am assuming most expected they racked up the conference postseason awards with OPOTY, DPOTY, and coach of the year.  They also had 12 all-conference selections including 10 on the first team (7 from offense).  The conference runner up Hawks had 13 spots for 12 players (WR and returner) including 5 on the first team (7 selections from the defensive side).  NCWC had 7, Maryville had 6, and Greensboro had 6.  I would have to do some research but I would bet you that 6 selections for the Pride is the most in quite some time (the COVID spring excluded).  Brevard had 3, Methodist 3, and SOVA 2 selections.  LaGrange did not have any players selected.  They did have a honorable mention section where it appears that each team had a representative but that is the first time I have seen them do that so I am not sure what it means.  In either case here is my way to early very unofficial preseason rankings:

1. Maryville- They return the QB for his JR season and will likely be the team to beat for the next two seasons.  I give them the slight edge over the Hawks since the game will be in TN next year.
2. Huntingdon- Until Coach Turk leaves they will always be at the top of this conference and will contend for the title.
3. Belhaven- Graduation will hit this team probably the hardest but with where they recruit I would think they should be able to reload rather quickly.
4. Brevard- If this team can find a way to win some out of conference games it will help the overall image of the conference.  They are also returning an all-conference QB
5. NCWC- This team will continue to have talent and could surprise people next season depending on retention
6. Greensboro- Coach Card has this program moving in the right direction I think.  It is a tough hill to climb but they have started moving upwards
7. SOVA- Always a tough team to call due to mission trips but I thought they were improved on offense this year and that is something to build on
8. Methodist- It was a disappointment this season and though they are not loosing a ton of Seniors they are losing them at key positions.  It may get worse in Fayetteville before it gets better
9. LaGrange- I am still waiting for someone to awaken this sleeping giant.  Recruiting in the state of Georgia could turn any program quickly


I realistically could see any of those top 4 teams winning the conference title next season.  The thing that I would love to see change next year is the conferences overall record in non-conference games.  We were 7 wins and 18 losses.  The 7 wins came from Maryville (3), Belhaven (2), and Huntingdon (2).  If as a conference this can improve then maybe the next NCAA AQ doesn't get sent to the defending national champs house in round 1.
#3
Based on the non-scientific approach of looking at the D3Football top 25 it does look rather promising for Randy Mac.  They have the "easiest" bracket in terms of possible ranked opponents.  The bracket where all the other representatives from Region 3 were slotted looks to be the hardest with 5 ranked teams in the top 15 (though Mount's bracket has 6 of the top 18 but from what the internet is telling me it isn't that hard and Mount should coast to the semi-finals).  With that being said this is the week where much like selection Sunday for March Madness where people lose their mind over who the 68th and 69th best teams in the country are or in our case the 33rd and 32nd team.  I know that 32 is a much smaller number and the limited amount of at large bids is very small leading to good teams watching from home but everyone starts out with the same opportunity in an AQ conference.  With only 4 of the 28 conferences getting two teams in it always seems unfair for teams like Berry, Muhlenberg, and other deserving 1-2 loss teams but I still fall back on what the tournament is designed to do and that is crown a champion.  It would be nice to get the 32 best teams in a tournament but how do you determine which 32 of the 241 are the best?  I personally like the AQ system (though I can see going back to a time where you needed 7 teams in a conference to earn an AQ) and only needing to select a few deserving at large teams.  So long as the tournament gets #1 team in the country on December 16th I will be happy.
#4
Defense and run game travel come playoffs,  Fortunately it looks like the weather will not be bad.  It will be a tall task but for the Blazers sake I hope that they can keep it close going into the 4th and see where it goes from there.  This weekend it will have been 701 days since N. Central last lost a game and in that time only one game has been a single digit scoring difference.
#5
Also of note in the Methodist program RS-Senior QB Brandon Bullins will see his career come to a close this Saturday.  Off the field he is involved in a lot of the community service projects that the program does.  In 2021 he was one of the school's Male Scholar Athletes of the year with a 4.0 GPA in both the fall and spring semesters.  Following the 2022 season he was a CSC Academic All-District.  On the field he is a 2 time all-conference player though I do not think he will add to that list given the level of play of some of the other QBs in the conference.  He now owns or is tied for the lead in every passing statistical category in the conference.  He will have played in 44 games after this weekend and here is where his numbers will likely be:

Passing Yards- 11,127 Yards (previous record 9,231 yards)
Passing Attempts- 1,611 (previous record 1,356)
Passing Completions- 968 (previous record 787)
Passing TDs- 83 (the record is 81 and he is tied currently)
Total Yards- 11,179 Yards (previous record 10,324)

I know that I previously predicted a Pride win on Saturday but for Brandon's sake (and the rest of the team) I hope I am wrong.
#6
Final week of the regular season with actual stakes on the line.  If I am reading the USAC website correctly the Belhaven game will actually kickoff an hour prior to the Huntingdon game which means the Hawks could know their postseason fate by the early part of the second half.  I think that the game shapes up in Belhaven's favor even more so than the Maryville game when they were upset in OT.  The Tornados run defense is not as formidable as the Scotts and Blount and Company should have success.  I would expect the Hawks to get a win against the visiting Battling Bishops even if the post season is not on the line.  Maryville should easily handle SOVA.  And I am not happy even as I type this but I think that Greensboro beats Methodist under the lights at their stadium.  If those predictions are correct we are looking at a finish like this

1st Belhaven 9-1 7-1 in conference (picked 2nd in the preseason poll)
2nd Huntingdon 8-2 6-1 in conference (picked 1st in the preseason poll)
3rd Brevard 5-5 5-2 in conference (picked T-4th in preseason poll)
4th Maryville 8-2 5-2 in conference (picked 3rd in preseason poll)
5th NCWC 4-6 4-3 in conference (picked 6th in preseason poll)
6th Greensboro 2-8 2-5 in conference (picked 9th in preseason poll)
7th Methodist 2-8 2-5 in conference (picked T-4th in preseason poll)
8th SOVA 1-9 1-6 in conference (picked 8th in preseason poll)
9th LaGrange 0-9 0-7 in conference (picked 7th in preseason poll)

Post Season awards will likely be dominated by Belhaven.  They usually vote the conference champ as the coach of the year and I can't see them changing it this year even though both Huntingdon and Maryville's coaches would be good picks.  I think that the RB Blount from Belhaven will be the Offensive player of the year though the QB Rollins from Maryville would be a fine pick as well.  The biggest difference in my opinion is opportunities.  Blount has a combined 133 rushes, catches, kick returns, and passes for a combined 1,215 yards and 15 TDs.  Rollins is 205/323 passing for 2,489 yards and 16 TDs to go along with 117 rushing attempts for 347 yards on the ground and 12 TDs.  It is hard for me without watching all the film to hold it against Blount for lesser production since Belhaven has other options.  It seems as Rollins goes so goes the Scotts.  On the defensive side there was no one who truly stood out from a statistical standpoint but the DL Brown from Belhaven has 43 total tackles, 13 TFLs, 6.5 sacks, 3 FF, 5 PD, 1 FR, and 1 blocked kick.  I would imagine given what he has been in the past that is the type of player that when the opposing coaches turn on the film say, "if we don't block that kid it will be a long day".  The Specialist of the year will likely come down to the punter Norton from Belhaven who is averaging 43 YPP, 12 downed inside the 20 YD line, and 12 fair caught and the punt returner from Huntingdon England who is averaging 14 YPR and 1 TD on the year.  The kick returner from Methodist is creeping up on 800 return yards but that is in large part due to the amount of chances each game.  As far as the rookies the conferences website no longer lists the years of the players so this is a uneducated guess based on kids that have one rookie of the week at some point this season.  Drumgoole a FR WR from NCWC has 504 receiving yards and 2 TDs on the season.  Larry Jones is a FR DB with Greensboro who has 44 tackles on the season, 2 picks, and a pick 6.
#7
I may be misremembering this but do they consider a regionally ranked opponent to have been once ranked to always count?  I only ask because with W&L and Bridgewater playing this weekend I assume one of those teams could fall out of the ranking and be replaced by Huntingdon if they were to beat Brevard on the road.  If that is the case that would help both Randy Mac who would have 2 RR wins as well as Berry would would be 1-1 in RR games.
#8
So if Randy Mac beats Ferrum, which on paper they will, they lock up the AQ.  Clearly they will still want to beat Hampden-Sydney in the Game and to hopefully ensure a home playoff game.  Same goes for wins for Trinity and Hardin-Simmons to collect the AQ.  It will be interesting which of those two teams receives a home playoff game since I don't think both will.  The USAC still has a little intrigue with Belhaven, Brevard and Huntingdon still having chances.  Brevard and Belhaven control their own destinies and if either team wins out they are in.  Huntingdon needs a win this weekend and then will be pulling hard for Brevard in week 11 against Belhaven.  No team out of the USAC has a shot at a home game at this point.  As far as any Pool C bids I think that Berry is hoping Huntingdon is able to sneak into the back end of the regional rankings giving them a 1-1 record on the season against RR opponents.  That still may not be enough to get them in the dance but it at least gets them a place in the discussion.
#9
I believe I may have screwed it up by putting it out there in the universe but I'm sure I was not the only one to notice the Blazers record going into last game.  We were hosting a Halloween party so I was not able to watch the game like I wanted but man what a defensive battle in Tennessee.  Here is what I dug out from looking at the box score and play by play.  There were a total of 8 three and outs in the game.  Maryville's QB was sacked 6 times yet still rushed for almost 80 yards.  The Maryville defensive unit absolutely shut down the Belhaven Rushing attack to the tune of 2.7 yards per rush (If you take out Blount's run of 27 yards you are looking at 2 YPC).  The Scotts missed a FG in the 4th quarter from 21 yards out.  When it mattered most the Blazers came up with a 12 play drive covering 69 yards (it was actually more since the first play of the series there was a 15 yard tripping penalty).  It looks like Belhaven won the coin toss going into OT and held the Scotts to 4&10 from the 25 yard line.  It seems like the missed FG was a thought and Maryville went for it on 4th and got a pass interference call out of the play.  Two plays later and the Scotts QB was in the end zone.  When Belhaven got their turn they also were held to 4&10 and that is when the pick 6 happened.  Can't blame the QB at that point because if he didn't throw it they didn't have a chance.  I can imagine the coaches on Maryville's side yelling like crazy initially to get down until the defender broke out of the pack racing towards the opposite end zone. 

Well here we go.  Brevard controls their own destiny as do the Blazers.  The Tornados get Huntingdon at home this weekend before going to play Belhaven in week 11.  Based on comparative scoring the Hawks should be the favorite in the mountains of NC this weekend but I give the Tornados as good a chance as anyone.  If Huntingdon wins they will be the biggest Brevard fans in the world the following weekend.  On a different note Greensboro dog walked SOVA to get their first win of the season.  LaGrange gets a chance to get in the win column in Fayetteville this weekend against Methodist.  The Monarchs did not have a good showing on homecoming on Saturday and are at a point in the season where I'm sure it is hard to find motivation.  There are a handful of super seniors who I am sure do not want to leave the program in this condition when they leave and I hope the returning players want to find a way to spring into the offseason with something to build on.
#10
3 weeks left.  The Hawks are on a bye.  On the slate we have winless Greensboro traveling to SOVA and winless LaGrange hosting Brevard.  I know that there are three weeks left in the season but I just realized that the Pride and the Panthers do not play this season.  So not only does the conference have a shot at it's first undefeated team there is a chance at 2 winless teams.  Now they both get to play Methodist who may not let that happen.  Of note in Tennessee this weekend when the Blazers come to town you have the top rushing offense at 292 per game going up against the top rushing defense at 65 yards allowed per game.  I think much like the Huntingdon game the size and experience of Belhaven's O-Line will be what wins the day but it is something to keep an eye on.  The Monarchs host the Battling Bishops under the lights in Fayetteville for Homecoming.  I know that the records are in favor of NCWC but they have also beaten what I believe to be the three worst teams in conference already.  Now Methodist can certainly be in that group but I am still a little confused as to the season given some of the returning talent.  I also look and see that NCWC gave Belhaven it's "closest" game of the year with only a 21 point margin of victory. 
#11
Finally a weekend with some intrigue in Region 3.  I have had the same 7 teams in my weekly ballot since week 4 though the order has changed for some teams up until today.  I will self report that I dropped Howard Payne and replaced them with W&L so people do not assume it was JK.  I think that their loss in week one to Salisbury is not a terrible one considering it looks like Gulls are well on the way to a 7-3 record.  Week 9 gives us the HSU vs UMHB game to determine the ASC.  The Cowboys woke up last week just in time for the Cru to come to town.  Belhaven gets their only true road test when they head to Tennessee to play Maryville and their skilled signal caller.  Randy Mac I believe will get pushed by W&L and their run game but I believe that they still win the game but not by their normal 40+ point margin.  The SAA has been wrapped up for some time and in all likelihood the other three AQs will be sewed up before Halloween.
#12
I don't want to count all of Belhaven's chickens before they are hatched but I believe they have a realistic shot at the first 10-0 season in USAC history (since 2001).  They do have both Maryville and Brevard left on the schedule.  They get a mini bye with Methodist coming to town this weekend (I would put the spread at 50) before traveling to Maryville.  That QB is the real deal but I think that they will have a tough time protecting him and Belhaven should be able to run the ball at will.  There is another mini bye when they go to SOVA then Brevard comes to town the last weekend of the year.  At that point Brevard will be coming off of the Huntingdon game and could be playing for the AQ but my gut says that the Hawks beat them the week prior and they will be playing spoiler at best.  To Brevard's credit I love some of the changes that they have made to their offense and their SO QB along with Maryville's should be fun to watch in 2024 & 2025.

There are currently 16 undefeated teams left in D3.  Johns Hopkins/Muhlenberg have yet to play along with Linfield/Whitworth in their respective conferences which brings the total down to 14.  I know the level of the competition is rightfully questioned but it is so hard to show up week in and week out with the expectations to win.  Hopefully 10-0 gets a home playoff game in round one and with the age/experience the Blazers have I give them a reasonable chance to advance (I reserve the right to change this opinion based on the matchup). 
#13
Ralph that would be my ignorance of Texas and its geography/where the teams are located.  I was aware from previous posts where UMHB and HSU are.  I made the assumption that Trinity is in Trinity, TX when in fact it is clearly in San Antonio.  So unless UMHB wins the AQ and/or if Berry gets a Pool C bid there will be no one for the Blazers to play without the NCAA shelling out for a plane ride in round one.
#14
Color me surprised.  I did think that the Blazers would come away with a win but I didn't expect the scoring margin to look like that or the difference in the rushing totals be as great as it was.  They should be able to sleep walk through their next two opponents who have already played the Hawks this season (and lost a combined 93-13) before a matchup against Maryville on October 28th.  Huntingdon has to lick their wounds quickly since the Scotts come to town this weekend.  I'm sure I could be missing someone but if Belhaven represents the conference as the AQ the only teams with the possibility of making it that are within 500 miles of the school would be Trinity, Berry, and UMHB (which is right at the 500 mile mark).  We would see very quickly how they stack up nationally after the first round.
#15
Every game should be a pretty easy win (2 scores or more) in the top seven except for the Belhaven game which I expect to be super competitive.  I did a deep dive into the teams and posted it on the USAC board if your interested BSC