2017 Season - National Perspective

Started by D3soccerwatcher, August 11, 2017, 10:25:42 PM

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Mr.Right

Quote from: Gregory Sager on November 06, 2017, 10:22:13 PM
Quote from: Mr.Right on November 06, 2017, 08:53:45 PM
I am sorry but I really think Chicago got screwed. They should be sitting right where North Park is and North Park should be where Chicago is. The only reason they are not is because North Park beat them 1-0 about 3 weeks ago. I happened to catch the 2nd Half of that game and Chicago was the better side. I mean I just do not understand how North Park jumped Chicago in the Final ranking without either team losing. Chicago has a significant SOS advantage and RvR advantage. It doesn't make much sense except for 1 game that happened 3 weeks ago that jumped North Park over Chicago this week.

Not true.

First of all, by your own admission you only watched the second half. NPU dominated play in the first half, outshooting the Maroons 5-1 and getting the only shot on frame of the half.

Second, the committee had already jumped North Park ahead of Chicago after the Vikings beat the Maroons (Oct. 25 ranking) and then jumped Chicago right back ahead of North Park the following week (Nov. 1 ranking), so this was old news.

Third, the committee made a mistake in forming the previous week's ranking in which it had jumped Chicago ahead of North Park, assigning an RvR win over Aurora that shouldn't have been credited, because Aurora hadn't been ranked the week before -- and (properly) not doing the same for NPU, which had also beaten Aurora. Hey, it happens sometimes.

Fourth, and most importantly, you're only looking at two criteria, SOS (which Chicago clearly dominated) and RvR (in which Chicago does not have a significant advantage; in fact, if you're going by RvR winning percentage, Chicago doesn't have any advantage at all, since the Maroons were 7-2-0 RvR, and the Vikings were 4-0-0 RvR). There are three other primary criteria involved in the process. One is head-to-head, which is in NPU's column. Another is win-loss % against D3 opponents, and NPU wins that criterion, .917 to .889. Finally, there's record vs. D3 common opponents, which favors Chicago, 8-0 to 8-1.

In other words, two criteria clearly favor North Park, and two clearly favor Chicago. I suspect that the committee might have the leeway to interpret the RvR criterion either cumulatively or by winning percentage, as that's the case for the D3 sport that I follow most closely, men's basketball, but I don't know for sure that that's the case. If it's cumulative, Chicago takes it by dint of having played nine regionally-ranked opponents to North Park's four. But if it's winning percentage, then NPU takes the criterion, 1.000 to .777. If the committee doesn't have that leeway, then it's automatically going to go by RvR winning percentage. Regardless, that's how the committee went, anyway, with NPU owning the edge in three of the five criteria. Also, if the committee added any extra weight to one or other of the criteria, it was clearly head-to-head -- particularly since North Park beat Chicago on the home pitch of the Maroons.



This is all fine and good and I am not slamming North park I am just curious HOW North Park jumped Chicago in the Final Rankings if neither team lost and quite frankly Chicago and tougher games...Anyone?

Flying Weasel

Quote from: Ron Boerger on November 07, 2017, 11:05:25 AM
Quote from: Shooter McGavin on November 07, 2017, 10:14:16 AM
When do the final NCAA Regional Rankings get released to the public? There were no real snubs but one thing that caught my eye was Texas Tyler getting in which had to be for geographic reasons. Why not give Trinity the 1st round bye and omit Texas Tyler and put a different, more deserving team in one of the other quads? Don't think anyone would have complained about that.

The NCAA traditionally does not release the set of regional rankings used for playoff selection. 

Starting last year, like had been done prior to 2011, the committee was to release their fourth regional rankings--done Sunday after the completion of the conference tournaments, but not release until after announcing the tournament field.

From page 13 of the 2017 Division III Soccer Pre-Championship Manual:
QuoteMonday, Nov. 6
Women's – 64-team field announced, 1 p.m. Eastern time
Men's – 62-team field announced, 1:30 p.m. Eastern time.
Final regional ranking released.

From page 18 of the 2017 Division III Soccer Pre-Championship Manual:
QuoteMen's Soccer Regional Ranking
The men's soccer committee will release regional rankings on the following dates:
● Wednesday, Oct. 18
● Wednesday, Oct. 25
● Wednesday, Nov. 1
● Monday, Nov. 6

Last year they did release their fourth rankings which D3soccer.com has posted here.  It's not clear why they have not yet released their fourth rankings this year, but the data sheets used to do the fourth rankings have been released.

Upstatesoc

Surprised SUNYAC got to host three first round site. Too bad Messiah has to play on such a lousy football turf surface that Buff State has. Needs to be REPLACED!

PaulNewman

#453
Quote from: Flying Weasel on November 07, 2017, 11:19:26 AM
Quote from: PaulNewman on November 07, 2017, 10:27:53 AMI am far from a Tufts fan, despite the impressions of some, but I can work through my feelings to give them their due, and I can't imagine any argument where they aren't the #1 team in the country in a poll.

So all opinions on how good Calvin is and how good Tufts is are wrong if they don't find Tufts to be the best and Calvin to be second best?


Quote from: PaulNewman on November 07, 2017, 10:27:53 AMAnd how can Calvin be #1 and not even be able to host a friggin pod?  I know the technical answer but that answer just doesn't make any sense. 

Well, wouldn't the answer be (not sure if it's technical or not) that D3soccer.com is not the NCAA men's soccer committee.  Two different entities, with different criteria, different opinions and assessments.    If D3soccer.com was the organizer of the tournament, Calvin would be hosting a 1st/2nd Round pod. 

I think that answer makes sense.  What doesn't make sense is questioning the lack of compatibility and correspondence between (a) the D3soccer.com rankings and (b) the NCAA men's soccer committee's tournament bracketing.  There is no reason, intention, or expectation for two things coming from two separate and independent entities to be completely compatible and congruent. Should the NCAA ignore their own rankings and consult the D3soccer.com rankings to set brackets, seeding, and hosting for their tournament?

A little chippiness....I get a free kick from about 35 yards out.

The first thing about Tufts was rhetorical.  Of course anyone can have their opinions.  I haven't seen any opinions or analysis on why Tufts wouldn't be or shouldn't be #1 and/or why other teams should be.  I'd love to hear some cogent arguments.  For me, which I said described previously, Tufts, in addition to be defending national champs which early in the season seems to carry some weight for some, has given up an own goal in a conference (despite what some argued as weak just a week or two ago) that just got 5 bids, whose one loss all season is to an own goal, etc, etc.

As to the second point, that also is rhetorical to some degree.  There is a flaw somewhere when not just one national poll, but two have Calvin #1 and in the top 3 or so all season and then the NCAA has them a weak 4th in just their own weak region.  Regardless of who "owns" the polls there is disconnect and cognitive dissonance between the polls -- and also for that matter general consensus among most observers here -- and the treatment/formula by the NCAA when it comes to a Calvin (which gets treated the same as a PS-Behrend or St Joes of Maine).  Maybe two consecutive Final Fours should weigh in at some point.  The point is the disconnect.  I understand the procedural and criterion issues.

ADDENDUM:  And, I would venture to say, that the very cmte members for the NCAA regional rankings and the national cmte responsible for seedings and bracketing KNOW that they are underseeding Calvin simultaneous with doing it.  [The point was not that by virtue of any poll they should be influenced, but I was more using the polls to make the broader point about how Calvin is perceived by basically everyone....the polls are in that sense merely incidental.]  Hardly ANYONE, from any organization, with any reasonable objectives, would conclude that Calvin gets properly seeded (over the past 3 years let's say).  They (the NCAA cmtes) are a slave to their criteria which in the case of Calvin and occasionally other teams they know are faulty.  As to whether they should follow their criteria to the letter anyway, against their own joint instincts apart from those criteria, is a whole different question, and one where reasonable folks might differ.

Christan Shirk

The Regional Rankings should be up on the NCAA website shortly.  D3soccer.com inquired and was told that the men's and women's committee did submit the fourth rankings for posting on the NCAA website yesterday.  They are looking into it to make sure they get posted.  Once they are available, they will also get posted on D3soccer.com.
Christan Shirk
Special Consultant and Advisor
D3soccer.com

Ron Boerger

Quote from: Christan Shirk on November 07, 2017, 12:51:06 PM
The Regional Rankings should be up on the NCAA website shortly.  D3soccer.com inquired and was told that the men's and women's committee did submit the fourth rankings for posting on the NCAA website yesterday.  They are looking into it to make sure they get posted.  Once they are available, they will also get posted on D3soccer.com.

Maybe they forgot the rules were changed a couple of years ago like I did  ;)  thanks to all for the clarification!

PaulNewman

Quote from: Flying Weasel on November 07, 2017, 11:31:40 AM

Last year they did release their fourth rankings which D3soccer.com has posted here

Fascinating to go back and see Tufts entered the tournament last year at 9-5-2.  Very similar to where Conn College is at this year.

Mr.Right

So the Final Poll shows Conn College jumping Bowdoin without playing and North Park jumping Chicago with neither team losing. I am utterly baffled

Flying Weasel

#458
NEW ENGLAND REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - November 06, 2017

Rank

School
. Div. III .
Record
. Div. III .
SOS

 . R-v-R .
. Overall .
Record
. Prev. .
Rank
1.
Tufts
15-1-2
0.613
4-1-2
15-1-2
1
2.
Amherst
11-3-2
0.621
4-1-1
11-3-2
2
3.
Brandeis
13-4-0
0.622
4-4-0
13-4-0
3
4.
Springfield
14-1-2
0.566
5-0-0
14-1-2
4
5.
Middlebury
12-6-0
0.627
4-4-0
12-6-0
6
6.
Connecticut College
9-3-4
0.605
2-2-3
9-3-4
7
7.
Bowdoin
10-4-3
0.593
2-3-3
10-4-3
5
8.
Johnson and Wales
15-2-2
0.524
1-1-0
15-2-2
--
9.
Williams
8-3-5
0.600
0-3-3
8-3-5
8
10.
Endicott
13-4-3
0.533
1-2-1
13-4-3
10
11.
St. Joseph's (Maine)
18-0-1
0.499
2-0-0
18-0-1
--
12.
Gordon
13-6-1
0.544
0-3-1
13-6-1
12

EAST REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - November 06, 2017

Rank

School
. Div. III .
Record
. Div. III .
SOS

 . R-v-R .
. Overall .
Record
. Prev. .
Rank
1.
Oneonta State
15-1-2
0.598
4-1-2
15-1-2
2
2.
Cortland State
15-3-0
0.586
5-2-0
15-3-0
1
3.
Buffalo State
14-2-3
0.557
3-0-2
14-2-3
4
4.
Rochester
11-3-3
0.588
2-3-2
11-3-3
3
5.
Hobart
10-4-4
0.577
2-2-1
10-4-4
6
6.
Plattsburgh State
13-7-1
0.610
2-6-0
13-7-1
5
7.
Stevens
11-6-2
0.584
2-4-0
11-6-2
--
8.
Vassar
10-5-3
0.572
0-3-1
10-5-3
7

MID-ATLANTIC REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - November 06, 2017

Rank

School
. Div. III .
Record
. Div. III .
SOS

 . R-v-R .
. Overall .
Record
. Prev. .
Rank
1.
Messiah
18-2-0
0.608
7-2-0
18-2-0
1
2.
Lycoming
18-2-0
0.572
5-1-0
18-2-0
2
3.
Johns Hopkins
14-1-3
0.553
4-1-2
14-1-3
3
4.
Franklin and Marshall
11-5-2
0.607
4-5-2
11-5-2
8
5.
Dickinson
11-6-3
0.604
4-6-1
11-6-3
5
6.
Drew
19-0-1
0.522
3-0-0
19-0-1
6
7.
Gettysburg
13-5-0
0.547
2-4-0
13-5-0
4
8.
Haverford
10-5-3
0.595
4-5-0
10-5-3
7
9.
Lebanon Valley
11-5-1
0.547
1-3-0
11-5-1
9
10.
Elizabethtown
10-7-2
0.583
1-4-0
10-7-2
10

SOUTH ATLANTIC REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - November 06, 2017

Rank

School
. Div. III .
Record
. Div. III .
SOS

 . R-v-R .
. Overall .
Record
. Prev. .
Rank
1.
Lynchburg
16-1-2
0.602
3-1-1
17-1-2
1
2.
Rowan
17-3-1
0.616
3-3-0
17-3-1
2
3.
Oglethorpe
16-1-1
0.576
1-1-0
16-2-1
3
4.
Rutgers-Newark
20-2-0
0.579
2-2-0
20-2-0
5
5.
Washington and Lee
14-4-1
0.580
3-2-1
14-4-1
4
6.
Emory
12-5-1
0.637
2-3-1
12-5-1
6
7.
Mary Washington
15-4-1
0.566
2-3-0
15-4-1
8
8.
Christopher Newport
13-3-1
0.547
1-3-0
14-3-1
7

Flying Weasel

GREAT LAKES REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - November 06, 2017

Rank

School
. Div. III .
Record
. Div. III .
SOS

 . R-v-R .
. Overall .
Record
. Prev. .
Rank
1.
Otterbein
17-2-0
0.570
7-1-0
17-2-0
2
2.
John Carroll
15-2-2
0.597
4-2-2
15-2-2
1
3.
Kenyon
15-2-3
0.580
2-2-2
15-2-3
3
4.
Thomas More
14-4-2
0.580
1-1-1
14-4-2
5
5.
Capital
12-7-2
0.609
4-5-2
12-7-2
6
6.
Carnegie Mellon
10-4-3
0.623
1-3-3
10-4-3
4
7.
Marietta
11-6-3
0.556
2-3-3
11-6-3
--
8.
Ohio Northern
12-6-2
0.575
2-4-1
12-6-2
7

CENTRAL REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - November 06, 2017

Rank

School
. Div. III .
Record
. Div. III .
SOS

 . R-v-R .
. Overall .
Record
. Prev. .
Rank
1.
North Park
16-1-1
0.573
4-0-0
17-1-1
2
2.
Chicago
16-2-0
0.633
7-2-0
16-2-0
1
3.
Dominican
14-4-0
0.542
2-2-0
14-4-0
3
4.
Calvin
19-0-1
0.527
--
19-0-1
4
5.
Benedictine
14-6-0
0.542
1-4-0
14-6-0
5
6.
Aurora
12-7-0
0.536
2-4-0
12-8-0
6

NORTH REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - November 06, 2017

Rank

School
. Div. III .
Record
. Div. III .
SOS

 . R-v-R .
. Overall .
Record
. Prev. .
Rank
1.
St. Thomas
19-1-0
0.573
4-1-0
19-1-0
1
2.
Loras
13-5-1
0.589
3-2-1
13-5-1
2
3.
Luther
11-4-5
0.581
1-2-3
11-4-5
3
4.
St. Norbert
14-4-2
0.534
2-2-0
14-4-2
4
5.
UW-Platteville
11-3-2
0.562
1-2-1
11-3-2
5
6.
Macalester
12-6-2
0.576
0-3-1
12-6-2
7
7.
Simpson
15-3-2
0.531
0-3-0
15-3-2
6

WEST REGION - NCAA REGIONAL RANKINGS - November 06, 2017

Rank

School
. Div. III .
Record
. Div. III .
SOS

 . R-v-R .
. Overall .
Record
. Prev. .
Rank
1.
Trinity (Texas)
20-1-0
0.542
6-1-0
20-1-0
1
2.
Mary Hardin-Baylor
15-2-1
0.544
2-1-1
15-2-1
3
3.
Cal Lutheran
13-4-2
0.532
2-1-1
13-4-2
--
4.
Texas-Tyler
11-3-2
0.565
1-2-0
11-3-3
4
5.
Colorado College
11-4-4
0.536
2-2-2
11-4-5
2
6.
Redlands
14-4-2
0.557
1-4-1
14-4-2
5

PaulNewman

Wow, so OWU didn't get ranked.   Capital jumped CMU without that extra win.  Calvin is denied a win and therefore has none. Kenyon doesn't get another win but keeps the Heidelberg loss even though Heidelberg dropped out.  A single variable can have a large ripple effect.

Mr.Right

I would be willing to guess that this would be the only year a 7 loss team can get a Pool C. I guess that is how weak the bubble was BUT 7 losses for me is 1 to many.

bestfancle

Quote from: PaulNewman on November 07, 2017, 01:35:49 PM
Wow, so OWU didn't get ranked.   Capital jumped CMU without that extra win.  Calvin is denied a win and therefore has none. Kenyon doesn't get another win but keeps the Heidelberg loss even though Heidelberg dropped out.  A single variable can have a large ripple effect.

Yes Paul, and if OWU gets ranked, Otterbein probably doesn't hop JCU and their spots are probably flipped. Big implications if JCU runs into Calvin in the 2nd round.

PaulNewman

Quote from: bestfancle on November 07, 2017, 01:52:15 PM
Quote from: PaulNewman on November 07, 2017, 01:35:49 PM
Wow, so OWU didn't get ranked.   Capital jumped CMU without that extra win.  Calvin is denied a win and therefore has none. Kenyon doesn't get another win but keeps the Heidelberg loss even though Heidelberg dropped out.  A single variable can have a large ripple effect.

Yes Paul, and if OWU gets ranked, Otterbein probably doesn't hop JCU and their spots are probably flipped. Big implications if JCU runs into Calvin in the 2nd round.

Well, I think Otterbein might have jumped them anyway with a 7-1 RvR vs even a 5-2-2 for JCU.  Hard not to feel like that is a little inflated for Otterbein but they won all of their games, so that's the deal when you get to count the teams that drop out after being ranked in Week 3 and then add wins for teams that enter in Week 4.  JCU I think was unfortunate more for the double hit of OWU and Calvin, a huge rivalry game with a perennial power and then Calvin, another perennial power and #1 in two polls.  Will you be shocked, though, if JCU beats OWU and Otterbein loses to Medaille?

Shooter McGavin

Texas Tyler getting in was an absolute crime. Luther, Gettysburg, CMU, and Haverford all have much better resumes than them. I am sure those teams are bitter towards the committee.

Washington & Lee is hosting as the #5 team from their region? But Newark is ahead of them and has to travel to Boston to play Bowdoin and potentially Brandeis??? Someone explain that one to me. What a blunder. It gets better though. Ogelthorpe is ahead of both of them regionally and gets matched up with W&L at W&L!!! How is that even possible?  ::) Also how Newark isn't ahead of Ogelthorpe in the region is another head scratcher. The South Atlantic is a mess.