BB: ASC: American Southwest Conference

Started by Pat Coleman, December 29, 2005, 12:08:01 AM

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Blackcat00

Fungo you are in a swarm of hornets here , UMHB is sitting fine now, but lets not jump to conclusions with them just yet. THey dont have the experience and that might catch up to them, but hey they are on top of things right now.

CUAfan

Quote from: baseballfan24 on March 26, 2008, 12:35:26 PM
I have followed baseball for quite sometime.  I have to say I don't have a clue what all these stats mean.  How is UMHB the top speed team (whatever that means) when TLU and Tyler are 1 and 2 in the conference in stolen bases.  That does not make sense to me.  Is it because of doubles and triples?  If that is the case do those stats not have more to do with where the ball is hit and how it is played by the defense than how fast a player is?

Also related to team defense, wouldn't simply listing the teams' fielding percentages give us a good idea of who plays quality defense and who does not.  I know that fielding percentage may not always be a completely accurate description of how teams play defense, but it is usually a pretty good teller.

Sorry about the lack of explanation, baseballfan24. I'll give it my best shot here...I'm not always the clearest.

The speed stat is a compilation of 5 different measures, involving triples, stolen bases, stolen base percentage, runs per times on base, and GIDP's. The way I think of it isn't necessarily the fastest 40 time or anything like that, but the team/player who has had the highest effective speed. As of their 2008 annual, BP finally got a baserunning measure that is done in runs, but it requires data that would take too long to figure.

The defense measure (defensive efficiency) is the percentage of balls in play that are turned into outs, which is the point of defense in the first place. What fielding percentage tells you is how often a team gets to the ball but screws up, which is useful in its own way but does not address how many balls the team fails to get to and fall for hits (which is why I prefer the efficiency number).

BaseRuns (both hitters and pitchers) was originally devised by David Smyth. It converts the various counting statistics for a hitter or pitcher into runs so that a player's contribution can be summed into a single number. I then divide by the number of plate appearances so that it becomes a rate stat instead of a counting one, to allow comparison between players of differing playing time. VORP builds on that, comparing each player's production to that of a theoretical "replacement-level" player.

Hope that got everything. If it didn't, let me know what I missed.
Let's go 'Nados!

fungoman

Blackcat,

How do they not have experience? Does that mean that Concordia doesnt even have experience in making the conference Tourney? Or UT Tyler since they havent been there either? Pretty stellar comment there...

Blackcat00

#873
Its not stellar at all, and i didndt intend on it being stellar. Im just say TLU the McMurry's can sneak in and dominate a conference tourny or conference just from their guys being there every year. Basically its not rocket science. And dont let it get to you , its my opinion guy. Concordia has pretty good experience. I beleive they have been to the tourny alot in the last 7 years, not sure where you are getting confused.

Ralph Turner

Quote from: Blackcat00 on March 26, 2008, 10:07:51 PM
...McMurry's can sneak in and dominate a conference tourney or conference just from their guys being there every year. Basically its not rocket science....


I hope that Coach Driggers can find consistent bullpen strength between now and then.

fungoman

Hey you Concordia folks are the ones that penciled in UMHB in the finals and said they would get smoked by one of the east powerhouses. Now they dont have the experience to get there? And Concordia, with possibly just a handful of players that have any conference tourney experience, has enough experience to get it done? Which is it now?

Sader22

Quote from: HAMBONE on March 26, 2008, 04:51:33 PM
Quote from: Bman3 on March 26, 2008, 04:14:17 PM
THE_CRU_WHERE_ARE_YOU


I think I hurt THE_CRU_05's feelings.  i got on him pretty hard for messing with Infielddad and JSG.  Im sure he is aware that if the Cru does actually make it to the championship game of the asc tournament that 1 of those east powerhouses will man-handle them.  where is that pansy?  light us up on this message board....we are ready for your cocky-typing to make us think differently about your club.  afterall they did put a beatdown on a strong NCCAA team last night.  maybe they will get an intramural championship t-shirt for their efforts?

I know it is still early and we are only half way through the season and yes I know CTX has a great track record and all of these other teams in the East are great squads, but you have to give the CRU and Wells the credit they deserve.  He has done a great job turning the program around in Belton.  Yes you guys did smoke us every year and I played in those days when you, White, or Decker would go 4-5 with 2 bombs against us.  It just seems to me being a Baseball fan you really have to give them the benefit of the doubt.  I might be wrong about this but wouldnt you say at this point that UMHB is the powerhouse in the West.  I mean look at their team numbers it is kind of ridiculous.  I believe that when they make it to the Championship round no Team is going to handle them.  I believe that it is going to be a very good tournament. 

Im just saying everybody in here is not giving them any credit and they really do have a great team down there this year, I think it makes for an interesting tournament and could be one of the best divisions in the West that we have had in a long time. 

I like to see that our conference is getting stronger every year and that all the teams are getting better, I mean Sul Ross is even a little more talented than the have been.

All I ask is give them a little credit I mean we always gave the teams that smoked us every year the credit, CTX, TLU, MCM, HSU have always been the top dogs and now its nice to see other teams up there besides those guys every year. 

Please let me know your thoughts, just trying to get a little insight from other former players in this conference.

Just_Some_Guy

#877
Quote from: fungoman on March 26, 2008, 07:56:56 PM
Ralph, what can you tell me about UMHB?

I'll try to take this one off of Ralph's hands.

Obviously they can swing the sticks with the team .354 batting average, but they have been shut down by good pitching this year.

Todd Koch 7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 9 K
Curt Dixon 7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 7 K
Cody Curry 7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 5 K

Because of this notion and the fact that they played a very weak early season non-conference schedule leads me to believe their stats are a bit inflated and that they would struggle with the Ozarks again, and definitely the UTT pitching staff in any kind of tournament situation.

That said, the top of that order can swing it pretty well and will all run once they're on the sack. Froeschl, Villegas, Volz, White (usually one or the other hitting up there), and then Reinlie has been decent in the clean-up spot. Of course, you also have Pena hitting 9-hole that will murder bad pitching.

They've been pretty solid on the bump, but again, have shown some vulnerability against better hitting teams. If Tumlinson is healthy they have a little more depth, but with only 12.0 IP I don't know that he has been or is at all at this point.

It's clear that they're usually going to try to out slug a team though. White has 13 errors at SS and is fielding .849 and Whitehead has 9 at 3rd for a .918 clip.

Do I think they're the best team in the West?
It's hard to argue with what they've done thus far especially the fact that they took 2 of 3 from McMurry, but I'm still a little hesitant to annoit them the best team in the west. I'd say because of the way this year has gone in the west virtually anything could happen. If I was coaching and had to pick I'd probably rather play UMHB then McMurry right now but ask me again in two weeks.

Either way, I envision either the Ozarks or Tyler to come out as the ASC champions, but with the lack of true pitching depth in the entire conference, there's really no telling.

JSG


fungoman

Thank you JSG...it is good to see some real analysis instead instead of all the past smack talking we have gotten from the Concordia group. But I guess we have to listen to it, because they did go to the world series in 2002, and they have all the experience in the world.

I believe the Koch and Dixon have shut everyone down, including UT Tyler who was hitting .377 going into that weekend and have dropped down into the .350's. We did get to Koch a little bit, so I believe he is more vulnerable. Dixon can flat out pitch, but how many games can he pitch if it gets to the 2nd round of the conference tourney?

Even with the lack of bullpen depth we supposedly have, I still think we have the best top 5 pitchers in the conference, and come tourney time with the season on the line, that may be all we need.

Blackcat00

Is Ernest Pena still playing for UMHB. Ive watched that kid grow up playing ball and his father works with my mom back in Houston.

Blackcat00

#880
Yeah fungo dad its a great time up there in Appleton. You should try and make it up there sometime. And for experience, I would say Mike Gardner has a hell of a resume my friend.

HAMBONE

Quote from: Sader22 on March 27, 2008, 06:11:10 AM
Quote from: HAMBONE on March 26, 2008, 04:51:33 PM
Quote from: Bman3 on March 26, 2008, 04:14:17 PM
THE_CRU_WHERE_ARE_YOU


I think I hurt THE_CRU_05's feelings.  i got on him pretty hard for messing with Infielddad and JSG.  Im sure he is aware that if the Cru does actually make it to the championship game of the asc tournament that 1 of those east powerhouses will man-handle them.  where is that pansy?  light us up on this message board....we are ready for your cocky-typing to make us think differently about your club.  afterall they did put a beatdown on a strong NCCAA team last night.  maybe they will get an intramural championship t-shirt for their efforts?

I know it is still early and we are only half way through the season and yes I know CTX has a great track record and all of these other teams in the East are great squads, but you have to give the CRU and Wells the credit they deserve.  He has done a great job turning the program around in Belton.  Yes you guys did smoke us every year and I played in those days when you, White, or Decker would go 4-5 with 2 bombs against us.  It just seems to me being a Baseball fan you really have to give them the benefit of the doubt.  I might be wrong about this but wouldnt you say at this point that UMHB is the powerhouse in the West.  I mean look at their team numbers it is kind of ridiculous.  I believe that when they make it to the Championship round no Team is going to handle them.  I believe that it is going to be a very good tournament. 

Im just saying everybody in here is not giving them any credit and they really do have a great team down there this year, I think it makes for an interesting tournament and could be one of the best divisions in the West that we have had in a long time. 

I like to see that our conference is getting stronger every year and that all the teams are getting better, I mean Sul Ross is even a little more talented than the have been.

All I ask is give them a little credit I mean we always gave the teams that smoked us every year the credit, CTX, TLU, MCM, HSU have always been the top dogs and now its nice to see other teams up there besides those guys every year. 

Please let me know your thoughts, just trying to get a little insight from other former players in this conference.

We do give them credit.  They are having a great year which makes it fun to talk a little smack to see if they will shut me (us) up.  You dont see anyone on here lubing up Sul Ross State do you? That wouldnt be any fun. Trust me when I say, you are not alone knowing or excited that your alma matter is having a successful year.  Success in sports is what makes it fun, and i believe without a doubt those kids are having the time of their lives right now, and I am glad they are tasting a piece of the sweet goodness.  winning is contageous and losing is a disease, both spread equally as quick, and only the mature ballclubs know how to respect and keep the momentum when they get it. Do you really need the reassurance from us to know UMHB is having a great year?  They are clearly on the National Rankings and have one of the best records in the conference, that alone speaks for itself.  Now can they continue their success with the competition heating up?  That is where they lack the experience and it will be fun to watch.  They took 2 of 3 from a hot McMurry club....may be a different story if the Indians host the conference tourney.  I dont see any Indians on here talking smack after getting beat either.  Where you at Indian4life?

Ralph Turner

Thanks JSG!

Got busy with my "day" job.  :)

HAMBONE

Quote from: Ralph Turner on March 27, 2008, 01:30:44 PM
Thanks JSG!

Got busy with my "day" job.  :)

JSG knows everything.   its almost unbelievable!

Just_Some_Guy

Quote from: fungoman on March 27, 2008, 10:29:49 AM
Even with the lack of bullpen depth we supposedly have, I still think we have the best top 5 pitchers in the conference, and come tourney time with the season on the line, that may be all we need.

If by top 5 pitchers in the conference, you mean the best top 5, then I might be inclined to agree, but if you mean literally UT Tyler has pitchers 1 thru 5 then I disagree. It would be tough not to mention Jonathon Russell, Mark Cox, or Curt Dixon.

It only takes 3 games to win the conference tournament if you win all 3, but CUA and Ozarks proved you can get to Tyler in those games. Who starts game four if necessary for UT Tyler. Munchrath? If so, what if he's facing a team like McMurry that hit him well the first time? Do you go ahead and gamble with Ziegler? Can he last more than 5-6 IP?

And don't get me wrong here, I'm not saying any other team really has a viable 4th starter either, though you could make a decent case for Finnell or Scheuring  for Ozarks. If a game were to get really sloppy, I do think Ozarks has more guys they can count on than UT Tyler, primarily because they've taken the opportunity to utilize more guys this year.

McMurry has Vorhees that could throw if he had to and Wood, and Smith who have pitched fairly decent for them when they've had the opportunity to start. What hurts them is that Toombs (who started the year great) and Johnston are struggling as starters, and their LHPs our the bullpen they were counting on to step up this year, haven't.

I have mentioned before with a healthy Tumlinson UMHB has a little more depth, and like Ozarks they've got a lot of different guys they'll throw at you, but Sarles, Vaughn, Dobbins and Tatum aren't as good as Ozarks bullpen guys.

JSG