BB: Top Teams in West Region

Started by CrashDavisD3, February 20, 2012, 08:23:11 PM

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Ralph Turner

UTD at CTX next Thurs and Fri plus Sat if needed for the ASC bid.

Jack Parkman

My guess right now on the regional seeds, if Concordia wins the ASC bid

1. Chapman
2. Concordia
3. Redlands
4. TLU
5. Either La Verne (it will depend on Thursdays Regional Rankings) or someone from outside the West.
6. Willamette

I think UT Tyler could have been a Pool C if they would have made it to next weeks Championship series. 

If UT Dallas wins the ASC bid

1. Chapman
2. Redlands
3. TLU
4. Concordia
5. UT Dallas
6. Willamette

Ralph Turner

I looked at TLU's and CTX's records against mutual opponents.

TLU is 17-7
CTX is 11-9.

There are no head-to-head games.

We can compare regionally ranked teams when the Ranking come out on Thursday.

TLU has played: Willamette, UTT, UTD, Trinity TX, University of Chicago and Centenary, teams which might be in the regional rankings next Thursday.

CTX has played: Rhodes, Chapman, Redlands, Concordia Chicago, Webster, UTD, UTT and Trinity TX.

Ralph Turner

#2223
Quote from: Jack Parkman on May 06, 2018, 10:05:17 PM
My guess right now on the regional seeds, if Concordia wins the ASC bid

1. Chapman
2. Concordia
3. Redlands
4. TLU
5. Either La Verne (it will depend on Thursdays Regional Rankings) or someone from outside the West.
6. Willamette

I think UT Tyler could have been a Pool C if they would have made it to next weeks Championship series. 

If UT Dallas wins the ASC bid

1. Chapman
2. Redlands
3. TLU
4. Concordia
5. UT Dallas
6. Willamette
Jack, they are regionally ranking 8 teams.

At this time, I think that the last Pool C bid fills the 6th slot in the West Regional tourney with a non-West Region team.

I think that CTX will beat UTD.

Therefore my rankings are:

Chapman                 Pool A
Redlands                  Pool C
TLU                          Pool A
CTX                          Pool A
ULV                          left sitting on the table
UTT                          ditto
Trinity or Centenary         never got close to the table
Willamette                Pool A

Jack Parkman

Quote from: Ralph Turner on May 07, 2018, 12:01:59 AM
Quote from: Jack Parkman on May 06, 2018, 10:05:17 PM
My guess right now on the regional seeds, if Concordia wins the ASC bid

1. Chapman
2. Concordia
3. Redlands
4. TLU
5. Either La Verne (it will depend on Thursdays Regional Rankings) or someone from outside the West.
6. Willamette

I think UT Tyler could have been a Pool C if they would have made it to next weeks Championship series. 

If UT Dallas wins the ASC bid

1. Chapman
2. Redlands
3. TLU
4. Concordia
5. UT Dallas
6. Willamette
Jack, they are regionally ranking 8 teams.

At this time, I think that the last Pool C bid fills the 6th slot in the West Regional tourney with a non-West Region team.

I think that CTX will beat UTD.

Therefore my rankings are:

Chapman                 Pool A
Redlands                  Pool C
TLU                          Pool A
CTX                          Pool A
ULV                          left sitting on the table
UTT                          ditto
Trinity or Centenary         never got close to the table
Willamette                Pool A

I was looking more at what the seeds would be for the Regional in Spokane.  I don't see the West being an 8 team Regional so this was my attempt at an early projection.  Also, after looking at it more I definitely agree that La Verne is toast.  Do you think they will fly someone in as the 6th seed or 5th seed?

Ralph Turner

#2225
Quote from: Jack Parkman on May 07, 2018, 08:06:29 AM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on May 07, 2018, 12:01:59 AM
Quote from: Jack Parkman on May 06, 2018, 10:05:17 PM
My guess right now on the regional seeds, if Concordia wins the ASC bid

1. Chapman
2. Concordia
3. Redlands
4. TLU
5. Either La Verne (it will depend on Thursdays Regional Rankings) or someone from outside the West.
6. Willamette

I think UT Tyler could have been a Pool C if they would have made it to next weeks Championship series. 

If UT Dallas wins the ASC bid

1. Chapman
2. Redlands
3. TLU
4. Concordia
5. UT Dallas
6. Willamette
Jack, they are regionally ranking 8 teams.

At this time, I think that the last Pool C bid fills the 6th slot in the West Regional tourney with a non-West Region team.

I think that CTX will beat UTD.

Therefore my rankings are:

Chapman                 Pool A
Redlands                  Pool C
TLU                          Pool A
CTX                          Pool A
ULV                          left sitting on the table
UTT                          ditto
Trinity or Centenary         never got close to the table
Willamette                Pool A

I was looking more at what the seeds would be for the Regional in Spokane.  I don't see the West being an 8 team Regional so this was my attempt at an early projection.  Also, after looking at it more I definitely agree that La Verne is toast.  Do you think they will fly someone in as the 6th seed or 5th seed?
Thanks, Jack.

I agree. I think that a non-West Region team comes to Spokane.  I want to review the past records in the West Regional to see how non-West Region teams have fared. I believe that the West Region has so much parity, that it is hard to build the gaudy numbers necessary to earn a Pool C bid when you are down that far into the criteria.

Look at this weekend.

ASC -- #2 and host Sul Ross state went 2 and BBQ against the #7 and the #6 seeds in the 11-team ASC (McMurry and Belhaven are ineligible.)

SCAC #3 seed TLU knocks off #1 seed Centenary.  (Yes, Trinity finished 2nd in the regular season, 1 game back.)  #4 Seed Southwestern beat Centenary 3-2, lost to TLU 3-2 and then was eliminated by Centenary 6-3.

SCIAC -- you know this conference well. Going into the last week of the season, we were wondering if Chapman would break out of the pack to seal a bid (eventually the #3 seed, sweeping Oxy) in which the top 7 teams were still in the chase.

That was wild.

In the NWC, Willamette is my darkhorse for the tourney.

TexasBB

I guess the biggest shock is how far Trinity fell after being the #1 ranked team. The last 1/4 of the season they really tanked or were never that good to begin with.

Just_Some_Guy

Quote from: TexasBB on May 07, 2018, 05:23:54 PM
I guess the biggest shock is how far Trinity fell after being the #1 ranked team. The last 1/4 of the season they really tanked or were never that good to begin with.

I don't follow the way I used to, but perhaps someone who does could weigh in?

Looks to me like some key starters they relied on early in the year (Flores, especially and Nittoli as well) threw much less as the season progressed. Both of these guys were great for them in '16-'17 as well. I'm not saying it's (necessarily the same), but what if TLU loses or has limited use Malinovsky or Drgac down the stretch? Centenary, same with Devillier or Kirk?

Scannell and staff have always done a good job building depth on the bump and getting lots of guys IP so that they're deep(er) -- than most D3 schools - for tournament play, but if my hypothesis is correct and you lost Flores (in early April?) and Nittoli was tender/less effective down the stretch as well, now you're relying on #4 and #5 (Nix and Husain?).

That's *tough* when you're facing the aforementioned #1 and #2's from TLU and Centenary (above).

Does it drop you from #1 in the country to out of the regional? No, maybe not, but we all know the rankings are imperfect until late in the season.

JSG

TexasBB

Nothing on their website indicated that there were any health issues with their pitching staff . Not sure why Flores innings were down. Note he had only 39 innings yet had 7 starts.
Flores last appearance was on April 6 and only went .2 innings. He very well may have had an injury.  On the other hand Lonnecker really stepped up and had a 1.52 ERA. Not a starter but key in relief.

108 Stitches

I asked someone who was a bit closer to the team and said Flores got Mono and was not available. I did not follow the team that close but it looked like they stopped scoring runs. I am always leery of a team that starts out hot early, I actually prefer if there are struggles during the season as it builds character and toughness in a team; which prepares players for a tough playoff run. This team just seemed to fold under the pressure at the end. All speculation on my part as I never actually saw a game other than a few video webcasts.

waterlogged

Trinity staff is pretty deep, has 4-5 that touch 90+ which is unusual for a D3 staff.  Flores did get mono which kept him out.  I don't know when Nittoli initially had arm issues but he definitely was injured in the Centenary series (as well as Chaumette).  I suspect it was much earlier.  Even with the pitching injuries, it was the offense and defense that struggled far more than the pitching.   Sometimes it just doesn't go your way.  They should be poised for a good run next year. 

alldone

May 10, 2018
West      
1.   Chapman   34-11   34-11
2.   Redlands   33-11   33-11
3.   Concordia University Texas   29-14   29-14
4.   Texas-Tyler   29-16   29-16
5.   Texas Lutheran   34-9   34-9
6.   La Verne   29-14   29-14
7.   Trinity (Texas)   29-9   33-9
8.   Centenary (Louisiana)   26-16   26-16

Jack Parkman

Quote from: alldone on May 10, 2018, 02:18:22 PM
May 10, 2018
West      
1.   Chapman   34-11   34-11
2.   Redlands   33-11   33-11
3.   Concordia University Texas   29-14   29-14
4.   Texas-Tyler   29-16   29-16
5.   Texas Lutheran   34-9   34-9
6.   La Verne   29-14   29-14
7.   Trinity (Texas)   29-9   33-9
8.   Centenary (Louisiana)   26-16   26-16

UTT is really rooting for CTX to win this weekend so they are the #2 Pool C in the West.  If CTX fails to win, UTT can turn their gear in.  La Verne, Trinity and Centenary have no shot.

Ralph Turner

Quote from: Jack Parkman on May 10, 2018, 02:28:50 PM
Quote from: alldone on May 10, 2018, 02:18:22 PM
May 10, 2018
West      
1.   Chapman   34-11   34-11
2.   Redlands   33-11   33-11
3.   Concordia University Texas   29-14   29-14
4.   Texas-Tyler   29-16   29-16
5.   Texas Lutheran   34-9   34-9
6.   La Verne   29-14   29-14
7.   Trinity (Texas)   29-9   33-9
8.   Centenary (Louisiana)   26-16   26-16

UTT is really rooting for CTX to win this weekend so they are the #2 Pool C in the West.  If CTX fails to win, UTT can turn their gear in.  La Verne, Trinity and Centenary have no shot.
I agree about UTT. They are 10-6 against regionally ranked teams including 2-4 against CTX.

Ralph Turner

UT-Tyler  8, Randolph Macon 6

TLU 5,  Concordia Chicago 4.

This is the first time in the history of D-3 (42 national championships) for the 2 finalists to come from the same region!

The West Region will have won 4 of the last 6 National Championships.