2017 Playoffs

Started by Andy Jamison - Walla Walla Wildcat, October 31, 2017, 01:17:58 PM

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wally_wabash

Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 08, 2017, 09:11:56 PM
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 08, 2017, 01:20:49 PM
Quote from: HScoach on November 08, 2017, 12:52:34 PM
^ Which means they're likely to never happen..... :(
I think Linfield and HSU is highly likely (unless something strange happens this week)--the big question is where do they play?
... at the home of the Pool A bid...McMinnville, if HSU is a Pool C bid.

Pool A teams play on the road all the time, including last year when Linfield went to H-SU.  It isn't obvious to me right now who would host that game, but how you qualify (auto vs. invite) isn't a factor. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

Ralph Turner

Quote from: wally_wabash on November 08, 2017, 09:16:08 PM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 08, 2017, 09:11:56 PM
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 08, 2017, 01:20:49 PM
Quote from: HScoach on November 08, 2017, 12:52:34 PM
^ Which means they're likely to never happen..... :(
I think Linfield and HSU is highly likely (unless something strange happens this week)--the big question is where do they play?
... at the home of the Pool A bid...McMinnville, if HSU is a Pool C bid.

Pool A teams play on the road all the time, including last year when Linfield went to H-SU.  It isn't obvious to me right now who would host that game, but how you qualify (auto vs. invite) isn't a factor.
Last year it was UMHB 66 Linfield 27 and UMHB 20 HSU 15.  Both teams had one regular season loss.

This year UMHB 24 Linfield 3 and UMHB 17 HSU 7 are much closer.

MonroviaCat

Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 08, 2017, 09:27:36 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 08, 2017, 09:16:08 PM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 08, 2017, 09:11:56 PM
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 08, 2017, 01:20:49 PM
Quote from: HScoach on November 08, 2017, 12:52:34 PM
^ Which means they're likely to never happen..... :(
I think Linfield and HSU is highly likely (unless something strange happens this week)--the big question is where do they play?
... at the home of the Pool A bid...McMinnville, if HSU is a Pool C bid.

Pool A teams play on the road all the time, including last year when Linfield went to H-SU.  It isn't obvious to me right now who would host that game, but how you qualify (auto vs. invite) isn't a factor.
Last year it was UMHB 66 Linfield 27 and UMHB 20 HSU 15.  Both teams had one regular season loss.

This year UMHB 24 Linfield 3 and UMHB 17 HSU 7 are much closer.
and Linfield has better criteria numbers (SOS for sure and currently 1-1 vs RRO vs HSU 0-1).....either way you slice it---HSU is a huge challenge for Linfield this year.  They say defense wins championships but...
Go Cats!

Pat Coleman

Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 08, 2017, 09:11:56 PM
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 08, 2017, 01:20:49 PM
Quote from: HScoach on November 08, 2017, 12:52:34 PM
^ Which means they're likely to never happen..... :(
I think Linfield and HSU is highly likely (unless something strange happens this week)--the big question is where do they play?
... at the home of the Pool A bid...McMinnville, if HSU is a Pool C bid.

Ralph, sir, you've been around long enough to know this is *never* a thing. Qualification pool is not a seeding criterion.
Publisher. Questions? Check our FAQ for D3f, D3h.
Quote from: old 40 on September 25, 2007, 08:23:57 PMLet's discuss (sports) in a positive way, sometimes kidding each other with no disrespect.

Ralph Turner

Quote from: Pat Coleman on November 08, 2017, 11:15:58 PM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 08, 2017, 09:11:56 PM
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 08, 2017, 01:20:49 PM
Quote from: HScoach on November 08, 2017, 12:52:34 PM
^ Which means they're likely to never happen..... :(
I think Linfield and HSU is highly likely (unless something strange happens this week)--the big question is where do they play?
... at the home of the Pool A bid...McMinnville, if HSU is a Pool C bid.

Ralph, sir, you've been around long enough to know this is *never* a thing. Qualification pool is not a seeding criterion.
Thank you, Pat. If a South #2 gets to host over a West #4, then I can understand.  But if #2 South HSU is not a better team than a #3 East (Springfield) for the other Pool B bid, then I have doubt in my mind that HSU might host.

If Chapman (6-2, with losses to Trinity Tx and Linfield) creeps into the West Top 10 (possibly by Trinity beating Berry and strengthening Chapman's SOS), then Linfield will have 1-1 versus RRO. (West #9 Lake Forest hosting Chicago looks vulnerable.)

Linfield has .572 SOS and plays 4-3 Pacific (SOS .479).

HSU has a .526 SOS and plays a 2-7 McMurry (SOS .470). That won't help HSU's SOS.

For me, the common opponent head-to-head with UMHB was not that drastic against Linfield vis-a-vis HSU.

As an aside, the ASC has been sending teams to the playoffs since 1999. I know that we are in the South Region, but since 2004, the only South Region team to eliminate an ASC team has been Wesley, UMHB 4 times, Miss College once.   UWW has been the victor 3 times, Linfield 5 times (UMHB 4 times and HSU once) and UMHB has eliminated HSU 4 times, LaCollege once and McMurry once. 

Once again, thank you for letting me elaborate.

MonroviaCat

Here is a question to create discussion.  Which unexpected loss in this last week of the season would create the most chaos for playoff selections?   ;D
Go Cats!

jamtod

Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 09, 2017, 09:27:51 AM
Here is a question to create discussion.  Which unexpected loss in this last week of the season would create the most chaos for playoff selections?   ;D

I think it would be Hardin-Simmons losing. It would impact Pool B and Pool C, and throw a wrench in the PNW/California/Texas pod.

HansenRatings

Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 09, 2017, 09:27:51 AM
Here is a question to create discussion.  Which unexpected loss in this last week of the season would create the most chaos for playoff selections?   ;D

Both Del Val and NCC could potentially lose their Pool A bids this week. That would cause a good deal of chaos.
Follow me on Twitter. I post fun graphs sometimes. @LogHanRatings

USee

While I think the chances of NCC losing on Saturday to Elmhurst are about 1%, if they did happen to forget there is a game and forfeit, IWU becomes the Pool A and NCC is a 2 loss pool C with no chance having lost HTH with Wheaton.  It wouldn't seem to create much chaos.

wally_wabash

Quote from: jamtoTommie on November 09, 2017, 09:35:19 AM
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 09, 2017, 09:27:51 AM
Here is a question to create discussion.  Which unexpected loss in this last week of the season would create the most chaos for playoff selections?   ;D

I think it would be Hardin-Simmons losing. It would impact Pool B and Pool C, and throw a wrench in the PNW/California/Texas pod.

Then you'd just wind up with Chapman @ Linfield, and whatever leftover is out there flying to UMHB.  Maybe Huntingdon?  Probably Huntingdon. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

jamtod

Quote from: HansenRatings on November 09, 2017, 09:41:56 AM
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 09, 2017, 09:27:51 AM
Here is a question to create discussion.  Which unexpected loss in this last week of the season would create the most chaos for playoff selections?   ;D

Both Del Val and NCC could potentially lose their Pool A bids this week. That would cause a good deal of chaos.

I think DelVal would still have a good shot at a Pool C if that happened, right? But it would give their A to Widener and kill their chance of having the #1 seed. I suppose that might pass on to Brockport then to keep it in the east?

wally_wabash

I think Delaware Valley is good either way, unless they lose by 50.  The win over Wesley really has to keep them propped up above Frostburg, which would make them the first C in line from the East (provided Springfield goes in the B pool). 

As far as the dominos for the top seed, I don't think it's given that Brockport would get it.  Wartburg and Wittenberg are definitely in play with Brockport. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

Ralph Turner

Quote from: jamtoTommie on November 09, 2017, 09:35:19 AM
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 09, 2017, 09:27:51 AM
Here is a question to create discussion.  Which unexpected loss in this last week of the season would create the most chaos for playoff selections?   ;D

I think it would be Hardin-Simmons losing. It would impact Pool B and Pool C, and throw a wrench in the PNW/California/Texas pod.
Yes. Atomic Football predicts HSU 46-8 with a 0.1% chance of an upset.

HansenRatings

Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 09, 2017, 10:48:25 AM
Quote from: jamtoTommie on November 09, 2017, 09:35:19 AM
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 09, 2017, 09:27:51 AM
Here is a question to create discussion.  Which unexpected loss in this last week of the season would create the most chaos for playoff selections?   ;D

I think it would be Hardin-Simmons losing. It would impact Pool B and Pool C, and throw a wrench in the PNW/California/Texas pod.
Yes. Atomic Football predicts HSU 46-8 with a 0.1% chance of an upset.

My model gives McMurry four times those odds (with essentially the same score prediction)
Follow me on Twitter. I post fun graphs sometimes. @LogHanRatings

CruGuy

Quote from: HansenRatings on November 09, 2017, 10:58:12 AM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 09, 2017, 10:48:25 AM
Quote from: jamtoTommie on November 09, 2017, 09:35:19 AM
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 09, 2017, 09:27:51 AM
Here is a question to create discussion.  Which unexpected loss in this last week of the season would create the most chaos for playoff selections?   ;D

I think it would be Hardin-Simmons losing. It would impact Pool B and Pool C, and throw a wrench in the PNW/California/Texas pod.
Yes. Atomic Football predicts HSU 46-8 with a 0.1% chance of an upset.

Is 99.6 vs 99.9 the difference between three standard deviations and four? That seems insignificant and starkly different at the same time.
My model gives McMurry four times those odds (with essentially the same score prediction)