Future of Division III

Started by Ralph Turner, October 10, 2005, 07:27:51 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

0 Members and 2 Guests are viewing this topic.

Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)

Quote from: Oline89 on August 06, 2020, 05:51:30 PM
Quote from: Pat Coleman on August 06, 2020, 05:01:56 PM
Quote from: Gray Fox on August 06, 2020, 04:47:00 PM
Quote from: Oline89 on August 06, 2020, 04:19:43 PM
Now that we have reached this point (essentially no D3 football, less than 50% D2 and FCS, but 90% FBS playing) is it now clear to everyone that money rules NCAA sports?  If we want to say it is about safety, then the NCAA (or it's corporate sponsors) should be funding the testing of every athlete in every sport.
Daily

I mean, that's a nice statement to make and I'm sure it will be popular, but where in reality is the funding for that? There are 25,000 D-III football student-athletes alone.

Pick a random D1 school, let's pick Rutgers.  The reason RU  can afford to play football is because that they are a member of the Big 10.  Google tells me that Big 10 revenue in 2018 was $759,000,000.  25,000 athletes x $100/test x 10 tests per athlete = $25,000,000.  Money rules NCAA sports

Rutgers doesn't get a full share of conference revenue until 2027. Their entire athletic budget for 2019 was $103m and that represents a $45m shortfall that had to be covered by other institutional sources.

I'm not saying there aren't lots of savings to be had in a D1 athletic budget, but those departments are currently set up to take advantage of them.
Lead Columnist for D3hoops.com
@ryanalanscott just about anywhere

OzJohnnie

Quote from: OzJohnnie on August 02, 2020, 07:55:19 PM
Quote from: OzJohnnie on July 26, 2020, 11:24:14 PM
Quote from: OzJohnnie on July 18, 2020, 02:04:20 AM
In this post from July 1st I linked to the data on Texas hospital capacity.  We can take a look at what it said then and compare it to what it says now to see what is actually happening.

Then:

Quote from: OzJohnnie on July 01, 2020, 09:19:20 AM
https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0d8bdf9be927459d9cb11b9eaef6101f

Data from the TX dept of health and human services.

RE: Texas.  You'll need to click around the visualization to find the numbers but there are 55.3k hospital beds in TX, of which 41.5k are occupied (75% capacity).  Of those 41.5k bedded patients, 6.5k are with CV (12% of capacity and 16% of demand).  1.4k ICU beds and 5.5k ventilators remained unused.  So it appears that in TX, at least, the covid outbreak can get three times worse before TX must start using additional capacity facilities.

Now:

There are 56.7k beds in Texas of which 46.2k are occupied (81% capacity).  Of those 46.2k bedded patients, 10.6k are CV positive (19% of capacity and 23% of demand) [we can infer from the totals that non-CV hospital demand has remained stable over this period at 35k-36k beds instead of declining as you intimate].  900 ICU beds and and 5.2k ventilators remain unused.

So has TX reached a point where the must start adding extra capacity?  It appears they are not even close to that point.  But where did the extra 1.4k beds come from?  I suspect they have been made available in the Dallas and Houston areas of the state which are running closer to 85% capacity (84% in Dallas and 88% in Houston).

And today?

There are 55k beds in Texas of which 43.6k are occupied (a decrease of 2.6k or almost a 5% reduction in demand in the last 9 days.  Of those 43.6k bedded patients, 10.1k are CV positive (again, an almost 5% reduction in nine days).  Non CV hospitalisation is at 33.5k, also a little less.  1.2k ICU beds remain unused (a 33% increase in capacity) along with 5.5k ventilators (a near 6% increase in capacity).  Dallas runs at 86% capacity and Houston at 82% capacity.

As it has all month, Texas looks fine in dealing with the challenges of the virus.

Oh, oh.  It looks like "Dr Oz" was right.  Texas managed just fine.  Houston just fine.  Oh, the panic was unjustified?  Say it isn't so.  Ask yourselves: how did he know this?  How was he able to be so confident when we were not?  I'll give you the answer: I put my fears aside and thought with my rational brain and not my emotions.

Now where is Texas, just a week after our last check in?

There are 54.8k beds in Texas (perhaps they are closing a few beds as they don't need to maintain the capacity?) of which 43.1k are occupied (down just a couple hundred beds from our last check-in).  Of those 43.1k bedded patients, only 8.9k are Covid positive (a 1.2k decrease or 12% down).  Non-covid patients are at 34.2, up a smidge but essentially stable for the entire time we've been tracking Texas.  1.2k ICU beds remained unused, no change.  6.5k ventilators are available (another 16% increase in capacity.  Due to more being brought in or fewer used I do not know).  Dallas runs at 85% capacity (essentially the same for this whole month) and Houston runs at 85% capacity as well, also essentially unchanged.

Low and behold.  As predicted.  The one place where this virus got out of control, metro NYC, was due to an inhumane policy regarded aged and long term care patients with covid.  Protect the vulnerable and this epidemic is utterly manageable.  This isn't hopeless optimism from "Dr Oz" but cold hard evidence.  Our experience with the bug.  Time to accept good news, folks.  I know you don't want to but you can only cling bitterly to your doom for so long before it's just plain delusional.

56.3k staffed beds, 44.6k occupied (79% capacity)
8.3k covid cases (down 7% in during the workweek)
Non-covid patients at 36.3k, on the high end for the range we've seen over the last six weeks
1.1k ICU remain available, about 100 more patients (we don't know if these are covid or non-covid patients)
6.5k ventilators (unchanged)
Dallas at 84% capacity (essentially unchanged)
Houston at 86% capacity (again, essentially unchanged)

At some point this unbroken track record of success in the Texas hospital system will have to break through and people will have to admit that the fears, panic and uncertainty were unjustified.  Entirely unjustified.  Because it was predictable from the beginning.  The hospital system was not overrun.  Non-covid patients continued to be treated the same as always.  In fact, the hospital system didn't even need to dip into surge capacity.

In other words it was an entirely predictable non-event.  This is a fact that should be celebrated instead of denigrated.  A shame that it isn't.
[  

Ralph Turner

#2792
FYI on COVID-19 around the world.

https://c19study.com/

Update on the numerous HCQ trials and studies around the world. Early and prophylactic works. Late (or not at all) doesn't.

In mid March, when the Indian Council on Medical Research*** was recommending HCQ for early treatment of affected people, prophylaxis for immediate family and others identified by contact tracing and for prophylaxis for health care workers, Dr Fauci was holding out for the $3+K /dose remdesivir that doesn't save lives and for the vaccine (for which he owns half of the patent and is estimated to be worth $500M). The contract for the vaccine has been awarded to Pfizer for $2B.

In late May, the WHO was chastising Indonesia for its use of HCQ.

According to www.worldometer.com as of today,

USA  492 deaths per million for 331 Million citizens

India 30 deaths per million for 1.38 B

Indonesia 20 deaths per million for 273M

Best practices for COVID19 now include early and generous use of HCQ, Z-Pak and Zinc.

Dr Fauci failed us.



*** https://www.mohfw.gov.in/pdf/AdvisoryontheuseofHydroxychloroquinasprophylaxisforSARSCoV2infection.pdf

OzJohnnie

A study published by the B-I-L just today.  More to be done, I'm sure, but this study tested various drug cocktail combinations at different stages of infection.  It found that sometimes they could prevent infections, in others they found combinations which could kill the virus, others which could kill infected cells and others that could inhibit virus reproduction.

A hydroxychloroquine cocktail with some other drugs was found to prevent infection.  Could be useful in an aged care home, I imagine, in giving the oldies added resistance.  Or perhaps with police or other essential services.  It was also included in a combination that was mildly effective at limiting virus reproduction.  Other combinations which didn't include hydroxychloroquine were more effective at killing the virus or killing infected cells.

https://bpspubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/bcp.14486

We can now return to our regularly scheduled tribalism.
[  

Ralph Turner

This virologist provides excellent insight into the effectiveness of HCQ, including the French and Swiss experience with using HCQ, then abruptly stopping its use and then resuming HCQ for early primary treatment on the country's Case Fatality Ratio Index. As the author states, the Fauci-Hahn model for treating COVID-19 has been disastrous for Americans.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/08/04/an_effective_covid_treatment_the_media_continues_to_besmirch_143875.html

Ralph Turner

Quote from: OzJohnnie on August 07, 2020, 07:16:52 AM
A study published by the B-I-L just today.  More to be done, I'm sure, but this study tested various drug cocktail combinations at different stages of infection.  It found that sometimes they could prevent infections, in others they found combinations which could kill the virus, others which could kill infected cells and others that could inhibit virus reproduction.

A hydroxychloroquine cocktail with some other drugs was found to prevent infection.  Could be useful in an aged care home, I imagine, in giving the oldies added resistance.  Or perhaps with police or other essential services.  It was also included in a combination that was mildly effective at limiting virus reproduction.  Other combinations which didn't include hydroxychloroquine were more effective at killing the virus or killing infected cells.

https://bpspubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/bcp.14486

We can now return to our regularly scheduled tribalism.
Thanks, Oz.

Model-informed drug repurposing is exciting to consider as we have a better understanding of molecular biology.

I found this news article interesting.  The paper has been posted online for review. Fenofibrate (Tricor) is such a familiar drug for clinicians and has a very favorable therapeutic and safety profile.  The way that it works in the lung tissue in vitro is  remarkable.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/existing-drug-may-downgrade-covid-threat-to-common-cold-level-jerusalem-study/

What we are seeing in the whole Wuhan SARS episode is the assault on the Big Pharma/ Big Government Industrial Complex, to borrow a concept highlighted by President Eisenhower in his January 1961 Farewell address, from the assaults by the great unwashed scientific outsiders. Knowledge is being dispersed instantly and outside the "approved channels".

OzJohnnie

At some point Sweden is going to become such an embarrassment that people will start pretending the country doesn't exist.

[  

Oline89

Quote from: OzJohnnie on August 08, 2020, 05:36:31 AM
At some point Sweden is going to become such an embarrassment that people will start pretending the country doesn't exist.



And they never closed schools or businesses.........

Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)

Plus they have a strong social safety net, free health care, and people almost universally followed the public health guidelines in place.  I'll just point out, in Delaware, we kept 93% of the workforce working, limited gatherings, and wore masks. We did fine. Nowhere is going to be absolutely comparable to anywhere else, but following basic health guidelines is a key element large swaths of the US population just couldn't manage.
Lead Columnist for D3hoops.com
@ryanalanscott just about anywhere

Oline89

Despite trying my best to understand the rules and hierarchy of college football, I remain confused.  In order to play an intercollegiate football game, it seems that there must be some level of approval from the state government, the NCAA board of governors, the individual league, and the school itself.  Am I correct that every entity in this chain has the option of cancelling the game? 

Caz Bombers

Quote from: Oline89 on August 08, 2020, 01:11:40 PM
Despite trying my best to understand the rules and hierarchy of college football, I remain confused.  In order to play an intercollegiate football game, it seems that there must be some level of approval from the state government, the NCAA board of governors, the individual league, and the school itself.  Am I correct that every entity in this chain has the option of cancelling the game?

the NCAA BOG can only determine whether or not the playoffs happen. We have a small handful of D3 institutions still planning on fall football/sports despite everyone else postponing/cancelling and the playoffs cancelled.

"The league" is just the schools themselves making a series of decisions. For example, there is almost no such entity as "the Liberty League." It's two people in an office on the RPI campus, one of which is replaced every two years and the other has next to no executive powers.

The state government can, if it chooses, set conditions under which a contest may or may not go forward depending on the meeting of those conditions, sure. Isn't that obvious by this point?

Maybe I don't understand the question.

Oline89

Quote from: Caz Bombers on August 08, 2020, 02:06:28 PM
Quote from: Oline89 on August 08, 2020, 01:11:40 PM
Despite trying my best to understand the rules and hierarchy of college football, I remain confused.  In order to play an intercollegiate football game, it seems that there must be some level of approval from the state government, the NCAA board of governors, the individual league, and the school itself.  Am I correct that every entity in this chain has the option of cancelling the game?

the NCAA BOG can only determine whether or not the playoffs happen. We have a small handful of D3 institutions still planning on fall football/sports despite everyone else postponing/cancelling and the playoffs cancelled.

"The league" is just the schools themselves making a series of decisions. For example, there is almost no such entity as "the Liberty League." It's two people in an office on the RPI campus, one of which is replaced every two years and the other has next to no executive powers.

The state government can, if it chooses, set conditions under which a contest may or may not go forward depending on the meeting of those conditions, sure. Isn't that obvious by this point?

Maybe I don't understand the question.

So according to your interpretation of collegiate football, as long state guidelines are maintained, then football games can be played.  League really means nothing and the NCAA regulations only come into play if a national championship tournament is offered. (Except DI where the national championship has nothing to do with the NCAA).  Thanks

Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)


There's no way the NCAA can keep a member school from playing a sport in a given season.  If the school is following the sport guidelines (for practice time, scheduling, etc), and they can find an opponent willing to play, they're more than welcome to do so.

I know some basketball teams, at schools where students will be in person on campus, are still planning to start practice in October and play whoever they can find when November rolls around.

I imagine there may be leagues with more control over their members than others - that would depend on Bylaws - but most of the statements I've seen about leagues calling of fall sports have been worded, essentially, as all the members individually calling off fall sports.  Some leagues have only announced cancellation of league play, which would leave individual schools open to doing their own thing.

I'm not sure there's much point in figuring out the possibilities until we actually see students on campus somewhere.
Lead Columnist for D3hoops.com
@ryanalanscott just about anywhere

OzJohnnie

#2803
@jomtod. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html

Interesting report from the CDC this week.  Covid remains above the epidemic threshold for mortality but they are counting all flu, pneumonia and C19 deaths together to reach the 7.8% of all deaths in the week which exceeds the threshold of 5.9%.



Seems strange they don't break out covid confirmed cases specifically and instead actually include cases they know aren't covid related (influenza) to the metric, no?

Also this interesting graph in the report.



91% of Covid deaths have a co-morbidity.  Hypertension and obesity are the clear winners with half suffering at least one of them.  It would be interesting to see the breakout of the 9% who straight up died of the virus only.  I wonder what the age profile of that cohort is.  I can't find it in the CDC data.

Also, despite the rate of daily positive tests bouncing consistently around 60k, the number of hospitalisations is falling rapidly.  Again, in a less tribal time this would be worthy of celebration.



Lastly, and most relevantly to DIII, the rate of hospitalisations in the report for 18-29 year olds is 1 in every 1786 cases.  Total enrolment in MIAC schools (including both UST and St Scholastica) is 32.4k, meaning 18 students will be hospitalised in the entire MIAC if every single student is infected (minus any hospitalisations that have already occurred in that population over the last six months).



Of course, we posted here earlier a study from Oxford which highlighted that only 1 in every 67 hospitalisations died from Covid.  But that was in mid-June (and weighted heavily to the elderly) and had been falling steady so is certainly much lower than that now.  But even assuming it reflects the odds of a college-aged individual, that means less than 1/3 of one MIAC student will die from Covid this year (if they haven't already died in the last six months).  And for this we're shutting down football and everything else?

[  

jamtod

#2804
Quote from: OzJohnnie on August 08, 2020, 11:14:50 PM
@jomtod. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html

Interesting report from the CDC this week.  Covid remains above the epidemic threshold for mortality but they are counting all flu, pneumonia and C19 deaths together to reach the 7.8% of all deaths in the week which exceeds the threshold of 5.9%.



Seems strange they don't break out covid confirmed cases specifically and instead actually include cases they know aren't covid related (influenza) to the metric, no?

The 7.8% is really meaningless at this point on account of:
QuotePercentages for recent weeks will likely increase as more death certificates are processed.

I believe the % for week 29 was 12%, so week 30 was 12.6% and this has climbed every week since you originally posted noting the downward trend (despite all other metrics at that time suggesting things were going to get worse). Hospitalization and other rates have improved recently, as previously noted, so I anticipate the PIC will be dropping again soon. Certainly worthy of celebration, as long as it's not celebrated In crowded beaches and bars, or our progress will be quickly lost (again).

We'll see if it stays down, but I suspect we are far from out of the woods in terms of "epidemic threshold." Also, I believe the calculation for that is 7.2% but it's not an objective measure to say epidemic is over or not, lots of other factors considered.

Update/Correction: you were right that the current threshold would be 5.9% as the PIC rate as % of deaths from pneumonia and influenza-related illnesses should be even lower than the 7.2% threshold from a month ago or so based on seasonal baseline rates now.