TOP 25

Started by short, July 11, 2008, 10:56:29 PM

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voice

#105
Quote from: Pat Coleman on October 06, 2008, 01:58:29 AM
Quote from: redswarm81 on October 06, 2008, 12:19:45 AM
I've been marveling at the entertainment provided by the Empire8, so that's where my mind is these days.  I guess I'm still surprised to see St. John Fisher in the top 20.  Everything is relative of course, so I'll think out loud:

St. John Fisher, preseason top 10 from a highly regarded conference,  loses big at Mount Union, and loses close at home to (schizophrenic?) in-conference foe, 2-1 Hartwick.  End result, 3-2 St. John Fisher is ranked no. 20.

St. John's, preseason top 10 from a highly regarded conference,  loses a squeaker at home to the surprise conference tri-leader Concordia-Morehead (whose only loss was at ranked, faraway Willamette), and loses another squeaker at defending conference champion Bethel.  End result, 3-2 St. John's is 34th in voting with 10 points.

Wartburg, preseason top 20 from a preseason top 10 conference, ties loses in 2OT at other surprise MIAC tri-leader, undefeated Augsburg, then loses a squeaker at (surprise?) conference leader Buena Vista.  End result, 3-1-1 3-2 Wartburg is off the charts--zero points.

Polling is an inexact science, I understand.  Nonetheless, Fisher is no. 20, St. John's is 14 places behind them (after starting out in preseason 4 places ahead of Fisher), and Wartburg is at least 7 places behind St. John's.  Am I wrong to see less than 21 "teams of separation" between these 3 preseason ranked teams, who today each have 3-2 records?

I'll be curious to read K-Mack's Top 25 ruminations--exciting reading, in this weeks ATN!

St. John Fisher beat Ithaca. St. John's best win is ... East Texas Baptist? Wartburg's best win is ... 2-2 Central? St. Norbert?

Your analysis is way way too simplistic. Not all 3-2 records are the same.

Great job on working the numbers Ralph, pretty impressive!

The one curious aspect of this year's Top 25 poll to date has been that MUC has been a near unanimous #1 since week 1 of the season.  26 first place votes to Whitewater's 4 first place votes.  It is the same way the poll went all of last year.

If all has been "the same this year as last year," maybe this season will end the same way? 

I wonder if the NCAA and Division III schools around the country really want another MUC-WW Stagg Bowl matchup.
Not forecasting another match-up at this point of the season, but just wondering what others may think on the subject>




Kira & Jaxon's Dad

How does Hardin-Simmons lose and go from 21st last week to 16th this week.  There weren't any big losses for the teams ahead of them.  Was it because they played Mary Hardin-Baylor close in the loss?
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Pat Coleman

Played the No. 3 team toe to toe on the No. 3 team's home field. Why wouldn't they move up?

I suspect they will move down in the coaches' poll, which is silly. If the poll isn't broken, why break it by moving teams down?
Publisher. Questions? Check our FAQ for D3f, D3h.
Quote from: old 40 on September 25, 2007, 08:23:57 PMLet's discuss (sports) in a positive way, sometimes kidding each other with no disrespect.

DutchFan2004

Quote from: voice on October 06, 2008, 10:27:22 AM
Quote from: Pat Coleman on October 06, 2008, 01:58:29 AM
Quote from: redswarm81 on October 06, 2008, 12:19:45 AM
I've been marveling at the entertainment provided by the Empire8, so that's where my mind is these days.  I guess I'm still surprised to see St. John Fisher in the top 20.  Everything is relative of course, so I'll think out loud:

St. John Fisher, preseason top 10 from a highly regarded conference,  loses big at Mount Union, and loses close at home to (schizophrenic?) in-conference foe, 2-1 Hartwick.  End result, 3-2 St. John Fisher is ranked no. 20.

St. John's, preseason top 10 from a highly regarded conference,  loses a squeaker at home to the surprise conference tri-leader Concordia-Morehead (whose only loss was at ranked, faraway Willamette), and loses another squeaker at defending conference champion Bethel.  End result, 3-2 St. John's is 34th in voting with 10 points.

Wartburg, preseason top 20 from a preseason top 10 conference, ties loses in 2OT at other surprise MIAC tri-leader, undefeated Augsburg, then loses a squeaker at (surprise?) conference leader Buena Vista.  End result, 3-1-1 3-2 Wartburg is off the charts--zero points.

Polling is an inexact science, I understand.  Nonetheless, Fisher is no. 20, St. John's is 14 places behind them (after starting out in preseason 4 places ahead of Fisher), and Wartburg is at least 7 places behind St. John's.  Am I wrong to see less than 21 "teams of separation" between these 3 preseason ranked teams, who today each have 3-2 records?

I'll be curious to read K-Mack's Top 25 ruminations--exciting reading, in this weeks ATN!

St. John Fisher beat Ithaca. St. John's best win is ... East Texas Baptist? Wartburg's best win is ... 2-2 Central? St. Norbert?

Your analysis is way way too simplistic. Not all 3-2 records are the same.

Great job on working the numbers Ralph, pretty impressive!

The one curious aspect of this year's Top 25 poll to date has been that MUC has been a near unanimous #1 since week 1 of the season.  26 first place votes to Whitewater's 4 first place votes.  It is the same way the poll went all of last year.

If all has been "the same this year as last year," maybe this season will end the same way? 

I wonder if the NCAA and Division III schools around the country really want another MUC-WW Stagg Bowl matchup.
Not forecasting another match-up at this point of the season, but just wondering what others may think on the subject>






Voice I am sure that there are 237 Division 3 schools that prefer that there were other schools in the Stagg Bowl. 
Play with Passion  Coach Ron Schipper

jam40jeff

How did Case Western Reserve and Cortland State switch positions this week?  Case was ahead of Cortland, and they both played similar teams (Case played Denison, who lost by 14 to No. 7 Wabash and was 1-2 going into the game, and Cortland played Buffalo State, who lost by 13 to No. 20 St. John Fisher and was 0-3 going into the game, so you may even be able to make the case that Case played a bit tougher team, but I digress).

After 3 quarters, Case was up 45-0 and pulled their starters.  Cortland State was only up 14-7 after 3 quarters and needed a big 4th quarter to win by 21.  So I really don't see how Cortland State is justified in passing up Case.

Also, just to throw in some propaganda statistics for Case...they have only given up 7 points in the first half of games this year, and have outscored their opponents 142-7 in the first halves.

Pat Coleman

Appreciate the question, and welcome to the board. I don't think your base assumption is correct. I think Buff State is a better team than Denison.

Interestingly, their current Massey ratings are very similar to our preseason rankings in Kickoff.

We ranked Buff State 154 in the preseason and Massey has them 152 now.
We ranked Denison 171 in the preseason and Massey has them 171 now.

But more importantly, it's important to remember that the entire season resume can be re-evaluated each week. (We make sure the voters see this data so they can decide whether to use it. The AFCA, to our understanding from coaches who vote in both, does not.)

Here's the entire season resume for both teams:

No. 15 Case Western Reserve (4-0):
Sep 06   AWAY   Kenyon (1-4)   W   26-62
Sep 13   HOME   Rochester (1-3)   W   38-6
Sep 20   AWAY   Oberlin (1-3)   W   21-48
Oct 04   HOME   Denison (1-3)   W   45-14

No. 14 Cortland State (4-0):
Sep 06   AWAY   Morrisville State (0-4)   W   37-51
Sep 20   AWAY   Rowan (3-1)   W   20-27
Sep 27   AWAY   Kean (3-1)   W   28-32
Oct 04   HOME   Buffalo State (0-4)   W   35-14

Case has been pounding teams, yes, but all they've proven is that they're better than four bad teams. Cortladn has proven its better than Rowan, and that's a road game as well.
Publisher. Questions? Check our FAQ for D3f, D3h.
Quote from: old 40 on September 25, 2007, 08:23:57 PMLet's discuss (sports) in a positive way, sometimes kidding each other with no disrespect.

jam40jeff

Thanks for the explanation.  I can see how re-evaluating Cortland's schedule led to bumping them up, and in that case they probably should have been ahead of Case since Week 2.

I do think that of Case's opponents, Rochester is one that is better than their record currently indicates.  Granted, they aren't exactly a good team, but they definitely aren't a bad 1-3 team.  Other than the pounding Case gave them, they played tough games in a 7 point loss to St. John Fisher and a 10 point loss to RPI.

And using the Massey ratings as a guide can help, but I wouldn't say the difference between 150 and 170 is significant.  If the positions are taken that literally, we would have to say that #1 Willamette should be able to handle #4 Mount Union. :)

By the way, so you know I'm not being an unappreciative jerk, I do love the site.  Keep up the good work.

Bob.Gregg

Quote from: Pat Coleman
...(We make sure the voters see this data so they can decide whether to use it. The AFCA, to our understanding from coaches who vote in both, does not.)


Quote from: Pat Coleman
I suspect they will move down in the coaches' poll, which is silly. If the poll isn't broken, why break it by moving teams down?


Pat, you've got the top site for D-3 information without challenge.
You've got the most-referenced poll for D-3 teams without question.
You've assembled the most knowledgable team of D-3 analysts without doubt.

Don't lower yourself, or your site, by throwing out sophomoric jabs at the "other" poll.

Just ignore them.  They won't go away.  But they will stay in the large shadow cast by the leader--d3football.com!
Been wrong before.  Will be wrong again.

Bob.Gregg

Quote from: Pat Coleman on October 07, 2008, 12:16:50 AM
Cortladn has proven its better than Rowan, and that's a road game as well.


Rowan hasn't proven to be anything but better than three mediocre to bad teams as well.

Bridgewater State (2-3)
William Patterson (1-3)
Brockport State (1-3, and the win was vs. Wm.Patterson)
Been wrong before.  Will be wrong again.

jam40jeff

Also, as far as the Massey ratings go, math and statistics intrigue me, so naturally I am fascinated by the Massey ratings.  However, sometimes I am amazed at their inaccuracy and that they seem to defy logic and even statistics.  I can't imagine how they have Hiram ranked ahead of Denison.  Yes, Hiram is 2-2, but they beat two AWFUL teams in overtime and got killed (41-6) by Carnegie Mellon, who is having a down year.  I predict next week we will see how far-fetched that rating is when Denison goes into Hiram's house and beats them by 3+ TDs.

ADL70

#115
CWRU had an advantage over Rochester, since it was Rochester's first game and the Spartan's second.  But then the Spartans won without Whalen.  Oberlin played now #10 W&J (with no quality wins either, except maybe Geneva who beat Salisbury) tough as well, being tied 35-35 in the fourth quarter.

Another factor is that Fisher was ranked 10th before the loss and had a 53 vote lead over #11 (thanks to Ralph Turner for pointing out this method of analysis).  When Fisher lost, a lot of votes were freed up and they seem to have mostly gone to two other East teams, Cortland and Del Valley, who gained 53 and 70 points respectively to CWRU's 24.

The top tier is now just the first nine not the top ten.
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jam40jeff

You will get no argument from me about Delaware Valley...I was surprised it took them as long as it did to crack even the Top 25.  I just don't feel Cortland State deserved as many of those freed up points as they received...but overall the poll is excellent and I don't have any say in it, so I guess I just accept it. :)  The unfortunate thing is that Case's schedule doesn't provide them any opportunities to gain any more respect, as blowing out bad teams doesn't seem to garner them any.  Wooster is undefeated, yes, but I know they haven't played any tough teams.  And Wash U. lost last week, so that diminishes their reputation, unless they can pull off an upset against Wabash later in the season.

What Case needs to worry about is finishing 10-0 (OK well they really just need to worry about Wooster at this point) and then gaining respect in the playoffs.

ADL70

#117
I have no beef with Del Valley's ranking either.  And I realize CWRU probably needs to win out to get to the post-season.

Wabash @ WUStL is this Saturday.
SPARTANS...PREPARE FOR GLORY
HA-WOO, HA-WOO, HA-WOO
Think beyond the possible.
Compete, Win, Respect, Unite

Ralph Turner

Quote from: cwru70 on October 07, 2008, 10:24:30 AM
I have no beef with Del Valley's ranking either.  And I realize CWRU probably needs to win out to get to the post-season.
I agree.

If we have only 2 Pool B bids, it is very hard to deny an undefeated team a bid. 

Ralph Turner

Quote from: Pat Coleman on October 06, 2008, 09:24:28 PM
Played the No. 3 team toe to toe on the No. 3 team's home field. Why wouldn't they move up?

I suspect they will move down in the coaches' poll, which is silly. If the poll isn't broken, why break it by moving teams down?

AFCA Poll

HSU drops from #11 to #17!  UMHB doesn't drop at all, if we go by the theory that the HSU outcome shows that UMHB is not as good as one would think!

That makes no sense at all!  :o