Pool C -- 2012

Started by wally_wabash, August 31, 2012, 11:19:36 AM

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SUADC

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 30, 2012, 10:57:46 AM
While we wait for our regional top ten lists, it's a good time to examine Pool A I think.  This is what I see is going on...I'm almost certain to be wrong somewhere, so please correct me. 

ASC - UMHB needs one win in their last two to clinch this bid.  Probability: Certain. 
CC - Hopkins needs one win either this week against F&M or next week against winless McDaniel to clinch this bid. 
CCIW - North Central has a deathgrip on this thing.  Wheaton has to not only beat NCC, but they have to beat them by a lot for North Central to not win this bid. 
ECFC - Mount Ida and Castleton State will play for this bid on 11/10
E8 - Despite the loss to Ithaca, Salisbury can wrap this up with a win this Saturday against Utica.  If Utica wins, well, we'll just deal with that next week. 
HCAC - Hanover and Franklin will play for this bid, and their bell, on 11/10. 
IIAC - Coe has clinched a league title, but not a bid yet.  One more win by the Kohawks clinches a bid.  Or a Central loss against Wartburg on Saturday. 
LL - Hobart will wrap this up with one more win; they play winless St. Lawrence on Saturday. 
MAC - Widener clinches with two more wins or one win and a Del Val loss.  If Del Val beats Widener on 11/10, it may be a three way tie in the MAC. 
MIAA - Adrian clinches with a win over Albion on Saturday.  If Albion wins, another potential three way tie. 
MIAC - St. Thomas clinches with a win against Concordia-Moorhead on Saturday.  A Cobbers win throws this into a three way tie and probably creates three playoff teams from this league. 
NEFC - Championship game between Framingham State and Salve Regina next Saturday. 
NJAC - Cortland State has clinched.  
NCAC - Super messy.  Possible four way tie exists here.  Most of the tiebreak scenarios appear to favor Wittenberg as the league's auto bid.  If Kenyon loses one of their last two, the tiebreak pendulum swings in favor of Wabash.  Tiebreak scenarios do NOT favor Kenyon or Ohio Wesleyan, so it looks like this will come down to the big red W's in the NCAC.  Stay tuned. 
NathCon - Concordia-Chicago clinches with one more win (they have 2-6 Lakeland and winless Maranatha Baptist left)
NWC - Linfield clinches with one more win (winless Puget Sound is next up)
OAC - Mount Union clinches with a victory over B-W.  A Baldwin-Wallace win sets the Jackets up...ah nevermind. 
ODAC - W&L and Hampden-Sydney are playing what looks like a de facto championship game on Saturday.  The winner may also need to win in week 11 to make sure.  ODAC's kind of messy at the moment. 
PAC - Waynesburg can clinch on their bye week with a W&J loss on Saturday.  If the Prez win, we get a winner take all game on 11/10 between Waynesburg and W&J. 
SCIAC - Cal Lutheran clinches with a Chapman loss or a pair of wins.  Chapman over Cal Lutheran on 11/10 could force a three way tie. 
UMAC - Championship game between Northwestern and Greenville on Saturday
USAC - Christopher Newport is in charge and clinches if they win out.
WIAC - UW-Oshkosh has clinched.

This is why I love Division III Football, you never know until the last weekend and the last play of week 11. These next couple of weeks are going to be very very interesting. Good Job on the breakdown. +K

MonroviaCat

#181
Quote from: dahlby on October 30, 2012, 11:03:34 AM
Wally:
Redlands could still garner the SCIAC auto-bid if  they win out and Cal Lu drops a game, which is doubtful, but they play the game for a reason. I believe the SCIAC has the "Rose Bowl" rule.
I don't think this is quite correct--the Rose Bowl Rule would only come into effect if there was a 3 way tie that could not be broken by several other criteria.  In the scenario you present, it's a two way tie with CalLu and Redlands both having one loss.  Cal Lu would have the head to head advantage and would therefore take the autobid.  Of course--if the one loss for CLU was to Chapman then you'd have that 3 way tie between Cal Lu/Redlands/Chapman---but then I would think the Rosebowl Rule would actually give Chapman the autobid....and actually I don't think the rosebowl rule would come into play because Chapman would have the the better overall record than Redlands (and the head to head vs. Cal Lu) which would give them the bid before the rosebowl rule is considered (I'm not 100% sure on the order of criteria for the SCIAC but this is what would happen if they use the same rules as the NWC).  This actually probably looks pretty good to you Dahlby, no?  :)
Go Cats!

AO

The UMAC will pick a name out of a hat if Greenville beats Northwestern and Scholastica beats UM-Morris.

Also, assuming Concordia-Moorhead loses to St. Thomas what are their pool C chances?  Their already high SOS will get a boost from playing 10-0 St. Thomas and maybe Augsburg might sneak into the regional rankings at 7-3 giving them a regionally ranked win.

Pat Coleman

An 8-2 Concordia-Moorhead would probably get onto the table but I don't know if we can assume we're going to get multiple two-loss teams in the field. Pacific Lutheran would probably be ahead of them.
Publisher. Questions? Check our FAQ for D3f, D3h.
Quote from: old 40 on September 25, 2007, 08:23:57 PMLet's discuss (sports) in a positive way, sometimes kidding each other with no disrespect.

AO

Quote from: Pat Coleman on October 30, 2012, 11:44:48 AM
An 8-2 Concordia-Moorhead would probably get onto the table but I don't know if we can assume we're going to get multiple two-loss teams in the field. Pacific Lutheran would probably be ahead of them.
Would Whitworth be ahead of the Cobbs with a win over Pacific Lutheran?

Pat Coleman

I don't know -- they would be behind Willamette, though, and that would be an interesting NWC triangle.
Publisher. Questions? Check our FAQ for D3f, D3h.
Quote from: old 40 on September 25, 2007, 08:23:57 PMLet's discuss (sports) in a positive way, sometimes kidding each other with no disrespect.

smedindy

It seems that if all goes right (or wrong) several conferences will have 'triangles' this year.

ExTartanPlayer

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 30, 2012, 10:57:46 AM
MWC - Lake Forest can clinch with a St. Norbert loss to Grinnell on Saturday or a win over St. Norbert on 11/10.  St. Norbert can force a three way tie by winning out which will apparently come down to the number of quarters led (INSANE).

Gotta admit that I've never heard of this tiebreaker, but I really like it, although perhaps someone else will point out an obvious flaw that I've missed.  Allows some measure of "control of a game" but takes raw margin of victory out of the equation (i.e. removes any incentive to run up the score, plus the wacky OT-finish scenario from the ASC where a team lost the tiebreaker because they didn't kick a PAT after winning a game 20-14 in overtime).
I was small but made up for it by being slow...

http://athletics.cmu.edu/sports/fball/2011-12/releases/20120629a4jaxa

wally_wabash

Quote from: AO on October 30, 2012, 12:10:32 PM
Quote from: Pat Coleman on October 30, 2012, 11:44:48 AM
An 8-2 Concordia-Moorhead would probably get onto the table but I don't know if we can assume we're going to get multiple two-loss teams in the field. Pacific Lutheran would probably be ahead of them.
Would Whitworth be ahead of the Cobbs with a win over Pacific Lutheran?

My feeling is that Whitworth would move ahead of the Cobbers if they beat PLU on Saturday, assuming PLU gets ranked tomorrow.  Both schools will have hefty SOS's, but Whitworth will have a RRO win.  Advantage Whitworth there. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

d-train

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 30, 2012, 01:40:30 PM
Quote from: AO on October 30, 2012, 12:10:32 PM
Quote from: Pat Coleman on October 30, 2012, 11:44:48 AM
An 8-2 Concordia-Moorhead would probably get onto the table but I don't know if we can assume we're going to get multiple two-loss teams in the field. Pacific Lutheran would probably be ahead of them.
Would Whitworth be ahead of the Cobbs with a win over Pacific Lutheran?

My feeling is that Whitworth would move ahead of the Cobbers if they beat PLU on Saturday, assuming PLU gets ranked tomorrow.  Both schools will have hefty SOS's, but Whitworth will have a RRO win.  Advantage Whitworth there.
But then Willamette would also have an RRO win (over Whitworth), the head-to-head win, and the same regional record as the Pirates.  I'd say a three-way tie for runner-up in the NWC probably keeps any of the three out of the playoffs (PLU for sure with their third loss).  Willamette would be at the top of the heap, though, over Whitworth.

wally_wabash

Quote from: d-train on October 30, 2012, 01:55:40 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on October 30, 2012, 01:40:30 PM
Quote from: AO on October 30, 2012, 12:10:32 PM
Quote from: Pat Coleman on October 30, 2012, 11:44:48 AM
An 8-2 Concordia-Moorhead would probably get onto the table but I don't know if we can assume we're going to get multiple two-loss teams in the field. Pacific Lutheran would probably be ahead of them.
Would Whitworth be ahead of the Cobbs with a win over Pacific Lutheran?

My feeling is that Whitworth would move ahead of the Cobbers if they beat PLU on Saturday, assuming PLU gets ranked tomorrow.  Both schools will have hefty SOS's, but Whitworth will have a RRO win.  Advantage Whitworth there.
But then Willamette would also have an RRO win (over Whitworth), the head-to-head win, and the same regional record as the Pirates.  I'd say a three-way tie for runner-up in the NWC probably keeps any of the three out of the playoffs (PLU for sure with their third loss).  Willamette would be at the top of the heap, though, over Whitworth.

Yes, a third loss for PLU takes them out for sure.  I think the pecking order in the West would be: Bethel, Willamette, Whitworth, Concorida-Moorhead if your scenario plays out (PLU loses to Whitworth and St. Thomas beats Concordia-Moorhead). 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

AO

#191
To sum up: make sure the teams you beat schedule their toughest games for last so that they can be regionally ranked prior to losing to you or another team.  Augsburg at the end of the season may be stronger than Pacific Lutheran, but since Augsburg lost earlier in the season and wasn't regionally ranked, the Cobbers stay home.

d-train

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 30, 2012, 02:04:37 PM
Yes, a third loss for PLU takes them out for sure.  I think the pecking order in the West would be: Bethel, Willamette, Whitworth, Concorida-Moorhead if your scenario plays out (PLU loses to Whitworth and St. Thomas beats Concordia-Moorhead).

Actually, 'my' scenario is that the Lutes win big and get some help with other Pool C teams losing.

d-train

Quote from: AO on October 30, 2012, 02:09:57 PM
To sum up: make sure the teams you beat schedule their toughest games for last so that they can be regionally ranked prior to losing to you or another team.  Augsburg at the end of the season may be stronger than Pacific Lutheran, but since Augsburg lost earlier in the season and wasn't regionally ranked, the Cobbers stay home.

...or (to the Cobbers) beat St. Thomas and/or stay off the field until the game is over at Bethel.  Otherwise you are suggesting a third-place team deserves one of only 7 at large bids?

wally_wabash

Quote from: AO on October 30, 2012, 02:09:57 PM
To sum up: make sure the teams you beat schedule their toughest games for last so that they can be regionally ranked prior to losing to you or another team.  Augsburg at the end of the season may be stronger than Pacific Lutheran, but since Augsburg lost earlier in the season and wasn't regionally ranked, the Cobbers stay home.

There's no doubt that there is some serendipity involved with the timing of games and the regional rankings.  The only way to circumvent that issue would be to remove the "once ranked, always ranked" clause.

Quote from: d-train on October 30, 2012, 02:13:30 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on October 30, 2012, 02:04:37 PM
Yes, a third loss for PLU takes them out for sure.  I think the pecking order in the West would be: Bethel, Willamette, Whitworth, Concorida-Moorhead if your scenario plays out (PLU loses to Whitworth and St. Thomas beats Concordia-Moorhead).

Actually, 'my' scenario is that the Lutes win big and get some help with other Pool C teams losing.

My bad!  If I'm picking seven teams right now, PLU is leaning "in" for me right now, but some help would, hmm, help.  Maybe Kean over Rowan, JCU over Heidelberg, Allegheny over Ohio Wesleyan....plus you want Pool A to remain undisturbed.  St. Thomas, Widener, or Waynesburg losing here at the end here is bad.  Kenyon losing and getting Wabash out of Pool C is also good for PLU.  Win on Saturday though...first things first.  :)
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire