2019 D3 Men's Soccer National Perspective

Started by PaulNewman, August 26, 2019, 08:24:35 PM

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PaulNewman

#60
For context re:Messiah...

2011 -- Beat eventual champ OWU first game of season and finished 18-1-1 with shock exit courtesy of Neumann

2012 -- Title - 23-0-2

2013 -- Title -- 24-1-1

2014 -- 21-1-1 (exit via Tufts)

2015 -- only "down" year at 14-5-1

2016 -- 19-1-3 (upset by Calvin in Sweet 16 in Grantham on 108th minute GW by Jacob Witte who got GW in 84th minute the year before in Elite 8 Kenyon game)

2017 -- Title -- 24-2

2018 -- 19-1-3 (undefeated and strongly favored to at least get to Final Four but exited in Elite 8 versus UR)

2019 -- Substantial injuries thus far

P.S.  I was very happy for Rochester last year but a Messiah vs Tufts semi would have been great drama....interesting that they have not met again since 2014

Falconer

Quote from: PaulNewman on September 13, 2019, 05:05:42 PM

2018 -- 19-1-3 (undefeated and strongly favored to at least get to Final Four but exited in Elite 8 versus UR)

2019 -- Substantial injuries thus far

P.S.  I was very happy for Rochester last year but a Messiah vs Tufts semi would have been great drama....interesting that they have not met again since 2014

This is all accurate, but I said at the time, when Messiah's 4-year MF engine Samuel Ruiz Plaza went out for the season before the 16-8 games, they were probably toast. In other words, they weren't going to make it to the Final Four, or if somehow they did, they weren't going to win it. I had commented that, the 3 players I most feared losing, in order, were West (duh, as I said at the time), Ruiz Plaza, and Luke Groothoff. They are the same 3 men who ended up on the AA list. There might have been, somewhere, a better point guard than Ruiz Plaza, but I simply did not see anyone better, not even Bryce Ikeda of Rochester (taking nothing away from a guy who fully deserved the accolades). Which is saying something. It's really, really hard to get ready for games at that level when you suddenly lose someone like that. Rochester, to their credit, surprised the Falcons by pressuring the CBs to impede the ball from moving up field, but I have to think that Ruiz Plaza's skills and experience were partly why that strategy was so effective in that game.

On top of that, a high level CB, Cooper Robbins, missed (I think) the whole tournament (or almost all of it) with a concussion protocol. Other guys were also hurt, but those two injuries were huge, occurring when they did. If somehow the Falcons had ended up playing Tufts, it wouldn't have been the matchup everyone's been waiting for--it wouldn't have been the full "Varsity" starting for the Falcons. I think I also said that, at the time. At least Cooper has been healthy so far in 2019, but neither Groothoff brother has yet played a single minute; and Luke was expected to move up front and be the leading scorer, as he was in the spring games.

The injuries so far this year seem no less important and widespread than those at any point last season, but at least they are coming at a time when you still keep playing after a loss. Last year, the Falcons' injured list almost the entire season was populated at any one time with 2-4 starters, almost everyone other than West. If that continues, it will be a very long season in Grantham, perhaps even a season in which (if they fail to win the AQ) their season ends in early November.

Just to throw this out there: of all the Falcons' tournament games in the period PN listed (2011-2019), IMO their single most impressive effort was the 2017 Elite Eight win over Rochester. This is based not only on the quality of the opposition and the statistics, but on the eye test: it was played on the backup turf field (owing to ponding on the main field), with fans just a few feet from the players, so fans could see everything happen right in front of them. Nothing escaped your view. And, to my eye, it was almost total domination of a very talented, exceptionally well coached opponent that in some other year might have won it all. For very large stretches in that game, Falcon feet were the only ones touching the ball--not even the occasional foot in to knock it away briefly. Rochester simply never had a chance to tie or win, and that was the Falcons' doing, not any failing on Rochester's part. At halftime, I mingled with the Rochester fans (who were classy and appreciative of the level of soccer being played that whole weekend by all the teams), and they were saying that they hadn't expected Messiah to be more skilled than Chicago--but that's what they were seeing evidence of. We'll never know if that opinion would have emerged from a Chicago-Messiah game later on, but that's what most surprised them about the Falcons.

I am convinced that if the Tufts-Messiah game had taken place that year (obviously a hypothetical, since Brandeis knocked out Tufts in 2 OT before the Final Four), the Falcons would have won--probably coming from behind, as they often did that year, and absolutely not in PKs after a scoreless tie, since that team scored at least one goal in every game. But, again, we'll never really know.

None of this, if true (other views may well differ from mine), detracts or is intended to detract from the legitimacy of Tufts' current dynasty. They are presently sitting on top of the mountain, they earned it, they probably will continue to do so again this year, and unless the Falcons heal up and get it together there won't be a Jumbo-Falcon game 2019 either. As much as I'd love to see it.

d4_Pace

Paul we have been robbed of the Tufts-messiah rematch two years in a row. The 2017 tufts team that had conceded only 1 goal (off the amherst long throw) all season lost in the 109th minute on a fluky back pass goal at home in the elite 8. Would have been a classic unstoppable offense, in which nick west was scarily enough the second or third option, against arguably the best defensive side in dIII history


d4_Pace

#63
hahaha falconer we were thinking about the same thing. Although i'm going to contradict you that Tufts would have won in 1-0 game because they hadn't conceded a goal from the run of play all season. Something even more impressive than not being shut out all season.

Also Tufts was nursing even more injuries that year.  The elite 8 game was without two of their best players, AA Tyler Kulscar, future AA gavin tasker, future AA Joe Braun was limited to less than 20 minutes, and the starting GK was out as well.   

Ejay

CNU and Trinity draw 1-1. And if I'm reading the box score correctly, Trinity went down to 10 men in the 57 minutes and then 9 men in the 66th minute before getting the equalizer in the 83rd minute.  That's a great result for Trinity and a poor result for CNU after grabbing a 15th minute lead.

Ommadawn

#65
A hard fought contest between Chicago and visiting Rowan ends in a 1-1 draw.  Both teams represented their respective conferences well and should be a factor come tournament time.  I've got to say that I kind of missed the commentary of the "dynamic duo" the Maroons have had doing their webcasts on occasion the past couple of seasons.

Gregory Sager

Quote from: EB2319 on September 13, 2019, 04:02:10 PM
Quote from: Gregory Sager on September 13, 2019, 03:13:24 PM
I'm trying to figure out how you square the circle of calling D3 men's soccer more competitive across the board over the past five seasons while also maintaining that Tufts has been a genuine dynasty during that time.

Just because you have a so-called dynasty doesn't mean the overall product isn't better. Is the level of competition from #2-#20 greater in the past 5 years than it was previously? I don't have an opinion but I would think MAF would argue the bar has been raised across the board, which makes Tufts success all the more impressive.

Well, let's let MAF make that argument, then. Meanwhile, I'm still combing through the old D3 tourney brackets, trying to see what sort of comparisons we can make between eras.
"To see what is in front of one's nose is a constant struggle." -- George Orwell

Ron Boerger

Quote from: EB2319 on September 13, 2019, 10:47:50 PM
CNU and Trinity draw 1-1. And if I'm reading the box score correctly, Trinity went down to 10 men in the 57 minutes and then 9 men in the 66th minute before getting the equalizer in the 83rd minute.  That's a great result for Trinity and a poor result for CNU after grabbing a 15th minute lead.

CNU had the game-winner with 5 seconds left in 2OT waved off on an offsides call.

Maybe this can help get Trinity back on track, though they have been extremely offensively challenged this year.  Holding a quality side like CNU to 3 SOG down 1 and then 2 men for that length of time is some nice defensive work. 

Ejay

Quote from: Ron Boerger on September 14, 2019, 09:28:34 AM
CNU had the game-winner with 5 seconds left in 2OT waved off on an offsides call.

I just watched the video, and with multiple angles and slow motion, no less! He looked onside to me - they got robbed.
https://www.trinitytigers.com/sports/msoc/2019-20/live/190913_CNU

blooter442

Quote from: EB2319 on September 14, 2019, 09:58:45 AM
I just watched the video, and with multiple angles and slow motion, no less! He looked onside to me - they got robbed.
https://www.trinitytigers.com/sports/msoc/2019-20/live/190913_CNU

VAR! (Unless Mike Dean is your VAR, then you'll get nothing, as he demonstrated this morning.)

rolldeisroll

Quote from: d4_Pace on September 13, 2019, 06:34:52 PM
Paul we have been robbed of the Tufts-messiah rematch two years in a row. The 2017 tufts team that had conceded only 1 goal (off the amherst long throw) all season lost in the 109th minute on a fluky back pass goal at home in the elite 8. Would have been a classic unstoppable offense, in which nick west was scarily enough the second or third option, against arguably the best defensive side in dIII history

Fluky back pass is a bit much. Missed clearance by Mieth more like it, and a good finish to boot ;)

d4_Pace

It was a fluky goal scored off a backpass to the goalie. I don't know how else to describe it. Obviously a great finish but it was just a nothing clearance by the right back that 999999/100000 times is handled easily

PaulNewman

Quote from: d4_Pace on September 14, 2019, 04:34:39 PM
It was a fluky goal scored off a backpass to the goalie. I don't know how else to describe it. Obviously a great finish but it was just a nothing clearance by the right back that 999999/100000 times is handled easily

D4, fluky is in the eyes of the beholder...or which sidelines you happen to be on when the "fluke" happens.  I always remember the handful of plays that should have made the difference when my team loses.  And when we win I don't remember or at least am completely oblivious to "flukes" that resulted in a win.  Just how being a fan (and/or an alum) works.  In terms of the one you're talking about, what was Tufts doing in a tie  Elite 8 game late in two overtimes on their home field, and same question for why with such intense motivation the game the year before didn't yield a more dominant, cleaner victory instead of reliance on a "fluke" in that same 109th minute?  Didn't the GW versus Messiah come on an equally routine failed clearance ending with a goal that was a scenario unlikely to happen 99 times out of a 100?

d4_Pace

Paul couple points to unpack there. Tufts didn't have a dominant victory the year before because kenyon was a really good team, and that Tufts team didn't dominate anybody all year. That team was less talented on paper than the 2014, 2017, 2018 teams but had the most incredible ability to just simply win games.  I can readily admit the goal against kenyon was a bit of a fluke. A flicked header on a long throw that splits two defenders and falls to the Nate who scuffs it and it goes in. 

The only reason I would call the brandeis goal a fluke is that in general a back pass to a goalie and a clearance is one of the more routine things that happens in soccer.  The shot itself was great and while unlikely I wouldn't call that a fluke.  It was more the blind lump up the field and the failed clearance aspect. 

Completely valid point that the game was still tied at 0-0 in the 109th minute. There were plenty of opportunities to put it away earlier that weren't taken and that always leaves you open to something happening. 

In regards to the Messiah goal it wasn't really a failed clearance. It was a good ball into the box that was then cleared out to the top of the box.  Sure every single goal in soccer is inherently an unlikely event. That's why sabermetrics has failed to take hold like in other sports. Its a game of chaos and a series of unlikely events coming together perfectly a few times every ninety minutes.  So every single beautiful goal or shot could be called a fluke. But I think generally a half volley in the top corner isn't what comes to mind.

PaulNewman

Quote from: d4_Pace on September 14, 2019, 06:17:50 PM
Paul couple points to unpack there. Tufts didn't have a dominant victory the year before because kenyon was a really good team, and that Tufts team didn't dominate anybody all year. That team was less talented on paper than the 2014, 2017, 2018 teams but had the most incredible ability to just simply win games.  I can readily admit the goal against kenyon was a bit of a fluke. A flicked header on a long throw that splits two defenders and falls to the Nate who scuffs it and it goes in. 

The only reason I would call the brandeis goal a fluke is that in general a back pass to a goalie and a clearance is one of the more routine things that happens in soccer.  The shot itself was great and while unlikely I wouldn't call that a fluke.  It was more the blind lump up the field and the failed clearance aspect. 

Completely valid point that the game was still tied at 0-0 in the 109th minute. There were plenty of opportunities to put it away earlier that weren't taken and that always leaves you open to something happening. 

In regards to the Messiah goal it wasn't really a failed clearance. It was a good ball into the box that was then cleared out to the top of the box.  Sure every single goal in soccer is inherently an unlikely event. That's why sabermetrics has failed to take hold like in other sports. Its a game of chaos and a series of unlikely events coming together perfectly a few times every ninety minutes.  So every single beautiful goal or shot could be called a fluke. But I think generally a half volley in the top corner isn't what comes to mind.

You missed my larger point that who we're cheering has a huge impact on perception and memory.  There is an element of fortune in all of this, which is partly why I've argued that Tufts could have won 5 out of 5 or 0 out of 5. 

Are you recalling the fluke of Tufts even having that 2016 game at home?  The UMass factor?  Have you ever thought about Kenyon's near walk-off goal a minute before (on what wasn't a fluke)?  And how was that Tufts team weaker other than coming in 9-5-2?  I mean different in terms of roster?

And I'm confused by the Messiah reference.  It was a ball that had been cleared but wasn't a clear failure?  And yes, great half-volley goal, but how many times does that land top corner out of 20 tries?  Did Messiah have any near misses in that game?  Any posts?  Any missed point-blank chances?

Just to be clear about my point....when Kenyon knocked Wabash out of the NCAC tourney last year on a a literally last second shot I was ecstatic....didn't shed a tear for Wabash, and didn't think about CMU's bad luck when the Lords scored with 30 secs left to tie their NCAA game.  Similarly, CWRU didn't waste much time thinking they were fortunate to advance on PKs.  Calvin didn't apologize or even claim good fortune in 2015 when a routine pass with no pressure somehow skipped through two AA CBs with a whiff leading to an open net.  How much time did you guys spend in the locker room afterwards wondering how in the world Lowry let Nate turn that close to goal or why Clougher didn't jump the flick on?  When my team wins on a wild buzzer beater in March Madness I celebrate and move ahead....the last thing I do is think about any ways we should have lost the game.