Pool C -- 2011

Started by Ralph Turner, October 09, 2011, 04:31:59 PM

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Ralph Turner

We have finished Week #6.

Let's start looking at the teams contending for the 6 Pool C "berths" for the 2011 season.

Ralph Turner

In the South, looking at zero and one-loss teams

ASC...
Both Louisiana College (4-1/3-1/2-1) and McMurry (4-2/3-1/3-1) have losses to UMHB. McM plays at Louisiana College on November 5th.  TLU is 4-1/3-1/2-1 (including a loss to Trinity) but has the meat of the conference ahead of them.

Centennial Conference...
JHU is undefeated.   Gettysburg, Muhlenberg and Ursinus lost their non-conference (in-region) games.  Only JHU seems to be a good Pool C candidate. The Blue Jays play at Gettysburg (10/22) and Ursinus (10/29).

ODAC...
HSC (5-1/5-1/2-0) has an in-region loss to Huntingdon. W&L (5-1/4-1/2-0) has an in-region loss to Centre. RMC (5-1/5-1/1-1) has a loss to E&H.  Those 3 teams face each other later in the season.  W&L at RMC on 10/15.

Pres AC...
Thomas More has defeated W&J. Waynesburg has a loss to CNU.

SCAC...
BSC (5-0/2-0) has a win over Huntingdon and will only play 9 games, 8 of them in-region. (BSC vs Centre on 10/15; BSC at Trinity on 10/29).
Centre (4-0/1-0) has a win over W&L and Hanover.  The Colonels will play only 9 games, all in-region. Centre at Trinity on 11/5.
Trinity (5-0/3-0) will play 10 games this season. They host Huntingdon on 10/15.

USASouth...
No Pool C bid for the USA South this season.  Both CNU (3-2/3-1/2-0)and Ferrum (3-2/3-2/2-0) are co-leaders.


Projecting teams in the lead for the Pool C "berth"...

One team from the ASC...
One team from the SCAC...

Ralph Turner

#2
In the West...

IIAC has a logjam of Central, Coe, Dubuque and Wartburg with one conference loss. No key games appear to be on the schedule this week.

MIAC  Tommies are (6-0/6-0/4-0).   Augsburg (Tommies) , Bethel (Olies) and St Olaf (Tommies) have one loss.

Midwest Conference is led by Monmouth (5-1/5-1/5-0) has its loss to Wartburg. Monmouth plays Carroll on 10/29 for the title.

NATHC -- No Pool C contenders

Northwest Conference -- Linfield (4-0/4-0/2-0) plays a 9-game schedule including Menlo and a win over Cal Lu. Pac Lu (3-1/2-0/2-0) has a loss to Cal LU. Pac LU at Linfield on 10/22.

SCIAC --  Cal Lu (3-1/3-1/2-0) has a loss to Linfield and a win over Pac Lu and Redlands. Redlands (3-1/3-1/1-1) has a big win over North Central.

UMAC -- St Scholastica is dominating about UMAC.

West conferences

MIAC probably earns a berth.
SCIAC (Redlands) makes a strong case.
IIAC is in the middle of this, unless they knock each other out.

Ralph Turner

I will leave the North and East Regions to other posters and invite commentary on the South and West Regions.

cludad

If Redlands wins out and Clu wins out how can the Bulldogs possibly be left out unless there really is a west cost bias.(look at ncc rankings do not deserve it, do voters go off past rep.. They did come west and got beat,imo they should be behind both Clu & Ru).Sciac may not be the toughest league but i bet the top 2 teams could play with anybody.

wally_wabash

Quote from: cludad on October 09, 2011, 06:21:07 PM
If Redlands wins out and Clu wins out how can the Bulldogs possibly be left out unless there really is a west cost bias.(look at ncc rankings do not deserve it, do voters go off past rep.. They did come west and got beat,imo they should be behind both Clu & Ru).Sciac may not be the toughest league but i bet the top 2 teams could play with anybody.

Agree that NCC ought to be behind certainly Redlands and probably CLU as well, but you've got nothing to worry about.  If CLU and Redlands both finish with one loss, they'll both get in.  They might have to play each other in round 1, but they'll both get in. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

MasterJedi

Come on Ralph, don't forgot the WIAC!  ;)

Right now the WIAC's best shot for a second team (assuming UWW goes undefeated) is UW-Oshkosh if their only other loss is to UWW. Losing to the top 2 teams in the nation and beating everyone else has to be a good reason to let them in at 8-2.

wally_wabash

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 09, 2011, 05:36:06 PM
I will leave the North and East Regions to other posters and invite commentary on the South and West Regions.

I'll take a stab at the North...

CCIW - Illinois Wesleyan and NCC are undefeated in league play.  IWU is undefeated overall and stands a good chance at Pool C if they only lose to NCC (who they host, btw).  If NCC loses to IWU and/or Wheaton, then things get tenuous at 8-2 for them.  Carthage and Wheaton are also 1-loss teams at the moment, a second loss in league play probably knocks either out. 

HCAC - Franklin is probably going to beat up on this league.  Barring some kind of upset this coming week against RHIT and RHIT running the table, there are no Pool C candidates here.  Maybe Franklin at 8-2 if it comes to that, but I wouldn't bet on it. 

MIAA - Adrian appears to be the class of the league this year, but Trine could wind up 9-1 and be an attractive at-large team. 

NCAC - Witt's loss this week puts them on very uneasy Pool C turf.  It appears that their only path to the tournament is via AQ.  Wabash appears to be very far out in front of everybody else on their schedule except perhaps Wittenberg.  9-1 looks like a worse case scenario for Wabash, which would probably get them in.  But we can all certainly hope it doesn't come to that. 

OAC - B-W, Heidelberg, and Muskingum all have one loss and all have one more coming via UMU.  That makes zero OAC teams that can have one loss and probably makes zero OAC teams likely to get an at-large bid.  Seems odd, but that's how it is. 

Also keep an eye on CWRU in the UAA.  They could run the table and wind up 9-1.  I don't think 9-1 gets them Pool B (that's going to the Wesley/Huntingdon winner in week 11), but if there aren't many 9-1 runners up out there, CWRU might sneak into Pool C. 

So what do I wind up with:
Trine looks good if they hold serve
IWU looks good if they only lose to NCC
CWRU if they go 9-1 has a shot
Everybody else (except Wabash if they don't win the NCAC) has to sweat out 1-2 bids in what's going to be a crowded group of 2-loss teams.  I could see the North only getting one at-large team this year. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

Ralph Turner

Quote from: MasterJedi on October 09, 2011, 10:17:39 PM
Come on Ralph, don't forgot the WIAC!  ;)

Right now the WIAC's best shot for a second team (assuming UWW goes undefeated) is UW-Oshkosh if their only other loss is to UWW. Losing to the top 2 teams in the nation and beating everyone else has to be a good reason to let them in at 8-2.
Yes, and my bad. :)

hazzben

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 09, 2011, 09:57:41 PM
Quote from: cludad on October 09, 2011, 06:21:07 PM
If Redlands wins out and Clu wins out how can the Bulldogs possibly be left out unless there really is a west cost bias.(look at ncc rankings do not deserve it, do voters go off past rep.. They did come west and got beat,imo they should be behind both Clu & Ru).Sciac may not be the toughest league but i bet the top 2 teams could play with anybody.

Agree that NCC ought to be behind certainly Redlands and probably CLU as well, but you've got nothing to worry about.  If CLU and Redlands both finish with one loss, they'll both get in.  They might have to play each other in round 1, but they'll both get in.

Saying nothing about whether they're deserving or not, it's no guarantee that Redlands and CLU get in. The committee hates 1st rd flights and if Linfield wins out, that would leave an odd number out on the West Coast. It certainly wouldn't be the first year a deserving team from the NWC or SCIAC got left home to save on airfare.

Not to mention, if Wheaton or IWU beat NCC in the upcoming weeks, Redlands victory suddenly wouldn't look nearly as strong as it did earlier in the year.

Again, this isn't to say Redlands and CLU aren't/won't be worthy of a Pool C, but they aren't locks. Especially since we have a ton of uncertainty about what the rest of the board would look like.

Pat Coleman

Money is not supposed to be an object as to whether teams get in, and keep in mind if two SCIAC teams get in, they drive to each other and there's still only one flight to accommodate a west coast team.
Publisher. Questions? Check our FAQ for D3f, D3h.
Quote from: old 40 on September 25, 2007, 08:23:57 PMLet's discuss (sports) in a positive way, sometimes kidding each other with no disrespect.

hazzben

Quote from: Pat Coleman on October 10, 2011, 12:42:27 AM
Money is not supposed to be an object as to whether teams get in, and keep in mind if two SCIAC teams get in, they drive to each other and there's still only one flight to accommodate a west coast team.

I hear ya on the 'not supposed to be' but doesn't it seem like the committee has certainly avoided flights like these in the past and left teams at home?

But good point on having the two drive and sending someone else on a flight to Linfield. They'll have to fly someone somewhere.

Pat Coleman

I think on the occasions an island team has been left out, it would actually have saved money to put them in, or at least been cost-neutral.
Publisher. Questions? Check our FAQ for D3f, D3h.
Quote from: old 40 on September 25, 2007, 08:23:57 PMLet's discuss (sports) in a positive way, sometimes kidding each other with no disrespect.

218Tommie

There is a lot of intrigue this year for pool c teams...One thing I'm trying to figure out is what if St. Thomas and the Oles both win out? Where does that leave Bethel (if they beat Augsburg). Would Bethel stay home with the 2 losses against good teams. Just trying to figure this out because I see them as a top 15 team that needs to figure their secondary out a little bit. But, only time will tell.

Ralph Turner

Quote from: 218Tommie on October 10, 2011, 09:31:11 AM
There is a lot of intrigue this year for pool c teams...One thing I'm trying to figure out is what if St. Thomas and the Oles both win out? Where does that leave Bethel (if they beat Augsburg). Would Bethel stay home with the 2 losses against good teams. Just trying to figure this out because I see them as a top 15 team that needs to figure their secondary out a little bit. But, only time will tell.
I think that UW-Oshkosh with only one in-region loss (UWW) and a non-region loss (UMU) would trump Bethel.