Pool C -- 2011

Started by Ralph Turner, October 09, 2011, 04:31:59 PM

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Bill McCabe

I asked this earlier, but will McMurry be hurt by their loss to SFA?  If they win out, are they a bubble team for Pool C?  I think that would be a shame if a loss to a FCS D1 team keeps them out.  Also, when are the regional rankings released?

wesleydad

if wesley and case western win out, would either one of them be in consideration for a pool c given that the other school would have gotten the pool b.  wesley will possibly be hurt with only a 5 - 1 d3 record with 3 more wins against non-d3 schools.  i have read that the non-d3 games are not taken into consideration, but who knows if that is true in the end.

Bill McCabe

How does a 2 loss Oshkosh stack up for a Pool C bid?

Jack Parkman

Quote from: cludad on October 21, 2011, 09:16:50 PM
what are the chances of chapman getting a bid if they win out, or beat either clu or redlands. they are 4-1 with a loss to azusa pacific(naia). they do not qualify for sciac auto. bid but have same record as clu.

I think you jinxed them.  The SCIAC is very odd with Redlands squeaking out 2 wins in a row.  All anyone can do is play spoiler from this point on.

jknezek

#64
Quote from: Bill McCabe on October 23, 2011, 09:59:17 AM
How does a 2 loss Oshkosh stack up for a Pool C bid?
You have to figure if Oshkosh runs the table they look excellent for a Pool C bid. A respectable out of region loss early to UMU and a very tight conference loss to UWW provide good credentials. If the committee overlooks them I foresee UMU and UWW having even more fun putting together an out of conference schedule as contracts roll off. That being said, Oshkosh has work to do in the WIAC.

Looking at the WIAC boards, it seems opinion is pretty vanilla on this. If UWO runs the table, they are worthy of Pool C versus anyone in the country. What the committee decides, of course, is always entertaining to find out. Does anyone have stats on how many 2 loss teams have been Pool C bids in the last couple years?

Bill McCabe

It seems the committee always has a mind of its own.  ;)

USee

The discussion about Pool C in the CCIW is just that, rhetoric. We have 2 weeks to banter about the possiblililty of the CCIW having a 9-1 team that doesn't make the playoffs. The reality is that it is unlikely anyone is going to beat NCC until they face a purple power deep in the playoffs (IMO). That said, it is interesting fodder for this board to wonder what if:

Wheaton beats NCC by less than 15 pts (which would give NCC the AQ by virtue of the 2nd tiebreaker, pt differential amongst Wheaton/IWU/NCC). Wheaton and IWU are sitting at 9-1 and with IWU obviously owning the HTH win. Wheaton's SOS (at .616) is #1 against any other 1-loss team and only Salisbury (.618) has a better SOS among the top 25. IWU's SOS is .590. Wheaton still plays NCC but they also play Augie and Millikin. Not sure what happens to their SOS but it can't get worse and .616 will be about as good as it gets I would guess. What does the committee do? Do you take 3 from the CCIW? Can you leave a team with such good numbers out of the field?

The process may well dictate what happens. If the north regional committee (Shannon Griffith, Manchester College, co-chair,Tim Gleason, Ohio Athletic Conference, co-chair, Kevin Doherty, Lakeland College, Mike Hallett, Heidelberg University, Tim Lester, Elmhurst College, Craig Rundle, Albion College, Ted Stanley, Kenyon College, Tyson Veidt, Bluffton University, John Welty, Westminster College (MO)) ranks IWU ahead of Wheaton, then the Thunder don't get to the table to be compared with the other region's Pool C candidates until IWU is in the field. IWU will have a pretty solid resume so should be selected into the field early. If there are any slots left after IWU is in, Wheaton should be a strong candidate against all others I would think.

Is there a scenario under which the regional committee could rank Wheaton ahead of IWU even though IWU owns a HTH? The  argument for that would be the SOS numbers and Wheaton's win over NCC (a big assumption).  The SOS numbers for Wheaton are primarily better than IWU due to the win @Platteville for Wheaton. That brings the entire WIAC into the equation for Wheaton's SOS by virtue of the OOWP numbers. Is there a precedent for any of this?

I think all of this is a moot point as Wheaton will have their hands full trying to stay with NCC in 2 weeks, but it's worth discussing while its a relevant topic.

jknezek

Quote from: Bill McCabe on October 23, 2011, 11:07:07 AM
It seems the committee always has a mind of its own.  ;)
Yep. Win and you're in. Except for the Pool B folks. That's the beauty of the system. We can complain all we want about the choices the committee makes regarding Pool C, but to go to Pool C means you failed at the main goal. Win and you're in. While I believe Oshkosh, should they win out, deserves a Pool C, they didn't do the one thing that would have made sure they got in. A tall order to be sure, but just about every conference has faced a long-term dominant team at some point.

I think the more interesting question is will we see a Pool C awarded to a Pool B team this year or the near future with Trinity(TX) apparently headed to the Pool B grouping. Wesley, the new SAA winner (next year), the UAA winner, the old SCAC twosome, an improving Huntingdon... all these are going to make for a very competitve Pool B in the near future.

Frank Rossi

When I was chatting with Pat last night, I was saying how I think we may be on a crash course for one or two two-loss Pool C teams this year, as one-loss runners-up were becoming scarcer and scarcer.  To prove it, I went through all conferences and graded each conference's hope of having a one-loss runner-up.  The grades were based on general logic of certain teams' strengths, the number of games involved for it to happen and the number of teams currently in each conference at X-0 or X-1.

(A) CCIW – High potential of Pool C at 1 loss since 3 teams tied with 1 loss and only one H2H left

(A) MIAC – St. Olaf must run table, assuming St. Thomas wins at least one more game

(A) MWC – Illinois College must run table, assuming Monmouth wins at least one more game

(A) NWC – Loser of Linfield/Lewis and Clark must run table in other games

(A) SCAC – Trinity and Centre both undefeated with another 1-loss team in the mix

(B) MAC – If DelVal runs table, no 1-loss runner-up.  DelVal still plays 2 games vs. 1-loss MAC teams

(B) MIAA – Albion win vs. Adrian would allow for a 1-loss runner up if Adrian wins other 2 games

(B) NCAC – Wabash wins vs. Wittenberg and Allegheny would foreclose 1-loss runner-up

(B) PAC – If T. More runs table, no 1-loss runner-up.  T. More still plays 2 games vs. 1-loss PAC teams

(B) SCIAC – Redlands must run table or Cal Lutheran must lose 1 of 2 SCIAC games and still win SCIAC

(C) ASC – McMurry win vs. LA College would likely foreclose 1-loss runner-up possibility

(C) HCAC – Franklin win vs. Hanover would foreclose 1-loss runner-up possibility

(C) IND/Pool B – Wesley and Case must both run table

(D) CC – Johns Hopkins win vs. Ursinus would likely foreclose 1-loss runner-up possibility

(D) E8 – Salisbury win vs. Fisher would foreclose 1-loss runner-up possibility

(D) LL – RPI must run table for 1-loss runner-up, assuming Hobart wins all but RPI game

(D) NEFC – Endicott must run table and lose to Bogan winner in NEFC Championship Game

(D) OAC – Baldwin-Wallace must beat Mount Union for runner-up 1-loss team

(F) ECFC – Impossible for runner-up to have 1 loss (Note that Maritime's OOC loss was out of division)

(F) IIAC – Impossible for runner-up 1-loss team

(F) NATHC – Impossible for runner-up 1-loss team

(F) NJAC – Impossible for runner-up 1-loss team

(F) ODAC – Impossible for runner-up 1-loss team

(F) UMAC – Impossible for runner-up 1-loss team

(F) USAC – Impossible for runner-up 1-loss team

(F) WIAC – Impossible for runner-up 1-loss team (Note Oshkosh's OOC loss was out of region, however)

Ron Boerger

Frank,

I don't understand your ASC comment.  If McM defeats LC (and HSU and Miss Coll) the War Hawks will only have one D3 loss, by one point to UMHB.  The committee's supposed to ignore non-D3 results, are they not?

Thanks.

Frank Rossi

Quote from: Ron Boerger on October 23, 2011, 05:39:52 PM
Frank,

I don't understand your ASC comment.  If McM defeats LC (and HSU and Miss Coll) the War Hawks will only have one D3 loss, by one point to UMHB.  The committee's supposed to ignore non-D3 results, are they not?

Thanks.

No.  Those are secondary criteria.  I would be willing to asterisk it, though, like I did in the case of a couple of the "F" conferences.

Ralph Turner

Here is the section of the Handbook that is pertinent.

Selection Criteria

Primary Criteria. The primary criteria emphasize regional competition (all contests
leading up to NCAA championships); all criteria listed will be evaluated (not listed in
priority order).
• Win-loss percentage against regional opponents.
• Strength-of-schedule (only contests versus regional competition).
- Opponents' Average Winning Percentage (OWP), weighted 2/3.
- Opponents' Opponents' Average Winning Percentage (OOWP), weighted 1/3.
See Appendix J for explanation of OWP and OOWP calculations.
• In-region head-to-head competition.
• In-region results versus common regional opponents.
• In-region results versus regionally ranked teams.
• Opponents are considered ranked once they appear one time in sport's
official rankings.
• Conference postseason contests are included.
• Contests versus provisional and reclassifying members in their
third and fourth years shall count in the primary criteria. Provisional
and reclassifying members shall remain ineligible for rankings and
selections.

Secondary Criteria. If the evaluation of the primary criteria does not result in a
decision, the secondary criteria will be reviewed. All the criteria listed will be evaluated
(not listed in priority order). The secondary criteria introduce results against out-ofregion
Division III and all other opponents including those contests versus opponents
from other classifications (i.e., provisionals, NAIA, NCAA Divisions I and II).
• Out-of-region head-to-head competition.
• Overall Division III win-loss percentage.
• Results versus common non Division III opponents.
• Results versus all Division III ranked teams.
• Overall win-loss percentage.
• Results versus all common opponents.
• Overall DIII Strength of Schedule.
• Should a committee find that evaluation of a team's win-loss percentage during the last
25 percent of the season is applicable (i.e., end of season performance), it may adopt
such criteria with approval from the championships committee.
Additionally, input is provided by regional advisory committees for consideration by
the Division III football committee. In order to be considered for selection for Pools B
or C, an institution must play at least 50 percent of its competition against Division III
in-region opponents. Coaches' polls and/or any other outside polls or rankings are not
used as a selection criterion by the football committee for selection purposes.

NEW! Selection Criteria. When all criteria are equal among teams with undefeated
records in the primary criteria, the NCAA Division III Football Committee can use a
team's performance in the previous championship season as criterion.

NEW! Rankings. The total number of rankings have been decreased from four to
two and the first ranking shall not take place prior to November 1. For 2011, the first
ranking is on November 2. For more information, see important dates on page 6.

Ralph Turner

If McMurry runs the table, then they are 7-1 versus South Region opponents.

K-Mack

Quote from: Mugsy on October 21, 2011, 04:41:31 PM
Barring any serious upsets in the remaining CCIW play, it is quite possible for a 3 way tie for the CCIW crown.

I'll take 'things that have been posted on this board every year' for $200, Alex.
Former author, Around the Nation ('01-'13)
Managing Editor, Kickoff
Voter, Top 25/Play of the Week/Gagliardi Trophy/Liberty Mutual Coach of the Year
Nastradamus, Triple Take
and one of the two voices behind the sonic #d3fb nerdery that is the ATN Podcast.

K-Mack

Man we have an awesome community on the board. Nice work on this and subsequent posts.

This needs an update after Saturday, no? Bethel, LV, Montclair, etc. picked up losses.

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on October 21, 2011, 07:35:53 PM
These I believe are all the teams who could finish with 1 loss and not win their conference (and games against teams they could finish tied in conference with)
Of course some of these will sort themselves out in the next few weeks (like the MAC)
This doesn't take into account whether or not they're a worthy playoff team, just whether they'd have 1 loss.
*Asterisk means one of the listed teams will be in Pool A

ASC:  Mary Hardin-Baylor  6-0 (4-0) (@ Texas Lutheran)
      Louisiana College   5-1 (3-1) (none)
CC:   Johns Hopkins       6-0 (5-0) (@ Gettysburg, vs Ursinus)
CCIW: Illinois Wesleyan   6-0 (3-0) (vs North Central)
      Wheaton             5-1 (2-1) (@ North Central)
E8:   Salisbury           6-0 (4-0) (vs St John Fisher)
LL:   Hobart              4-0 (2-0) (vs RPI)
MAC: *Delaware Valley     7-0 (5-0) (@ Lycoming, vs Widener)
      Widener             6-1 (4-1) (vs Lebanon Valley, @ Del Val)
      Lebanon Valley      5-1 (3-1) (@ Widener, vs Lycoming)
      Lycoming            5-1 (3-1) (@ Lebanon Valley, vs Del Val)
MIAA: Adrian              6-0 (2-0) (vs Albion)
MIAC:*St Thomas           7-0 (5-0) (@ Bethel)
      Bethel              5-1 (3-1) (vs St Thomas)
      St Olaf             5-1 (3-1) (none)
MWC:  Illinois College    6-1 (5-1) (none)
NCAC: Wabash              6-0 (3-0) (vs Wittenberg)
NEFC: Endicott            7-0 (5-0) (@ Western New England, NEFC Championship)
NJAC: Montclair St        6-0 (5-0) (@ Rowan, vs Kean)
      Kean                5-1 (4-1) (vs Rowan, @ Montclair St)
NWC:  Linfield            5-0 (3-0) (vs Pacific Lutheran, vs Lewis & Clark)
      Lewis & Clark       5-0 (2-0) (@ Pacific Lutheran, vs Willamette, @ Linfield)
OAC:  Mount Union         6-0 (5-0) (vs Baldwin-Wallace)
PAC:  Thomas More         6-0 (5-0) (@ Westminster, vs Waynesburg)
SCAC: Trinity (TX)        6-0 (3-0) (vs Birmingham Southern, vs Centre)
      Centre              5-0 (2-0) (@ Millsaps, @Trinity)
      Birmingham Southern 5-1 (2-1) (@ Trinity, vs Millsaps)
SCIAC Redlands            4-1 (2-1) (none)
     
Chapman             4-1
UMAC: St Scholastica      6-0 (5-0) (@ Eureka)
WIAC: UW-Whitewater       6-0 (3-0) (@ UW-Oshkosh)

Pool B
      Wesley              5-1
      Case Western Reserve 5-1

ECFC: None
HCAC: None
IIAC: None
ODAC: None
USAC: None


Former author, Around the Nation ('01-'13)
Managing Editor, Kickoff
Voter, Top 25/Play of the Week/Gagliardi Trophy/Liberty Mutual Coach of the Year
Nastradamus, Triple Take
and one of the two voices behind the sonic #d3fb nerdery that is the ATN Podcast.