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Messages - Mid-Atlantic Fan

#1
Men's soccer / Re: Pool A and Pool C Status
November 06, 2023, 11:16:07 AM
Well this is tough...especially without the D3soccer.com breakdowns to view!

MAF At-Large Bids
1. Conn College
2. Middlebury
3. Tufts
4. F&M
5. Babson
6. CNU
7. Kenyon
8. Wash College
9. Oneonta St
10. Chicago
11. OWU
12. W&L
13. Colorado College
14. North Central
15. Brockport St
16. UR
17. CWRU
18. Bowdoin
19. John Carroll
20. UW-Platteville
21. Carleton
22. Williams
23. UW-Eau Claire (Pool B bid)

Others: Muhles, LVC, Buff St, Otterbein, Rowan, Trinity Tx
#2
Men's soccer / Re: Mid-Atlantic Region
October 31, 2023, 01:02:32 PM
My power rankings and best guesses below!

MAF Power Rankings (10/31)

Region 4
1. Montclair
2. Leb Val
3. Stevens
4. Stockton
5. Kean
6. Rowan
7. PSU-Harrisburg


Region 5
1. Messiah
2. F&M
3. Wash College
4. JHU
5. Lycoming
6. Catholic 
7. Muhles

RV: Widener, Alvernia, Dickinson, Scranton



MAF 3rd RR Predictions

Region 4
1. Montclair
2. Stevens
3. Stockton
4. LVC
5. Kean
6. Rowan
7. PSU-Harrisburg

Region 5
1. Messiah
2. F&M
3. Wash College
4. Hopkins
5. Muhles
6. Catholic
7. Alvernia

Others: Lycoming, Widener, Dickinson
#3
Men's soccer / Re: Mid-Atlantic Region
October 24, 2023, 12:05:06 PM
Love this breakdown. Thanks for pulling it together! +K

Quote from: paclassic89 on October 23, 2023, 10:36:04 PM
Region IV -  RPI Rankings - Pre-Regional Ranking 2


 
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
Rank    School     RPI   D3 SOS   Prev Rank
1Montclair State.6294.55481
2Stockton.614.57353
3LVC.6091.53442
4Stevens.5989.56044
5Kean.5926.51935
6Rowan.5707.54986
7Penn State-Harrisburg.5617.56278
8Rutgers-Camden.5505.54787
9FDU-Florham.5318.48299

Region V -  RPI Rankings - Pre-Regional Ranking 2


 
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
Rank    School     RPI   D3 SOS   Prev Rank
1Messiah.6807.58471
2F&M.6733.60612
3Johns Hopkins.6221.60035
4Washington College.6113.55466
5Widener.6082.53314
6Muhlenberg.6003.56233
7Catholic.5957.58597
8Lycoming.594.55668
9Alvernia.5912.59959

Estimated SoS numbers.  MAF did a great job of going over the RvR which I don't track. From this ranking on, the purely RPI based predictions are slightly less accurate.  Top 7 for Region IV seems pretty set to me.  Montclair clear #1.  2-7 could still shift a lot as we go through the final games of the regular season and conference playoffs.  Region V top 2 (Messiah and F&M) are set.  JHU and Washington College are looking good.  I think Muhlenberg might be in trouble if they don't make a deep playoff run. They play Cabrini and McDaniel to end the regular season which will hurt their SoS (if they manage to tie or lose one of those games then they are really in trouble).   Widener potentially dropping out this week (despite still having a decent RPI) with Lycoming or Alvernia slotting in one of the last spots.  Lots of talk about Scranton but RPI has them at 11 in region V.  Low SoS right now but good RvR so who knows how the cmte will view them
#4
Men's soccer / Re: Mid-Atlantic Region
October 23, 2023, 03:08:04 PM
Quote from: Ejay on October 23, 2023, 02:46:26 PM
Scranton has a monster game Saturday vs Moravian. Winner makes the paywall conference tournament while the loser is most likey out. Catholic already has the#2 seed locked up but still has an outside shot at the #1 with a win vs Juniata combined with a Lycoming loss to Elizabethtown.

Big weekend ahead in the Landmark. From what I can tell only a few teams are locked in.

Lycoming and Catholic are battling for the 1 seed but both have secured 1st round byes and home field advantage for the semifinals. A Catholic win and Lycoming loss/tie gives Catholic the 1 seed. A Catholic loss/tie gives Lycoming the 1 seed. A Lycoming win gives Lycoming the 1 seed. 

Etown has secured the #3 seed and this won't change regardless of weekend results. Drew has clinched a playoff berth but could be seeded either #4 or #5. They will most likely be #4.

Scranton, Moravian and Goucher are all fighting for the last 2 spots. Scranton and Moravian face-off while Goucher travels to Wilkes.

All of the midweek games are non-conference so this won't be set until Saturday afternoon  :o
#5
Men's soccer / Re: Mid-Atlantic Region
October 23, 2023, 03:00:19 PM
Quote from: SKUD on October 23, 2023, 02:32:48 PM
Good stuff MAF how many of these teams & who, do you see playing in the NCAA tournament?

Thanks SKUD! Right now it's too hard to tell. A lot will depend on the next 2 weeks and how conference playoffs go. Which teams will earn the AQ and which teams will fight for seeding in the regional rankings. I will try and break it down with Locks, Good Shape, Bubble, and Most Likely Out.

Locks:
Messiah, F&M and Montclair--regardless if they get the AQ or an at-large these 3 are practically locks to go dancing one way or another. Montclair might not feel this way just yet after what happened to them last season, but I think they are more comfortable this year with a better SOS, RvR and overall resume in a weak region. They should be first off the board in Region 4. Messiah and F&M will be the first 2 off the board in Region 5.

Good Shape
Hopkins, Wash College, Stevens, LVC--all of these teams have a good shot at winning the AQ and if they don't, it more than likely means one of the teams ahead of them or next to them have gotten it. The loser of Stevens vs LVC will have a chance to come off the board early for an at-large but it will depend how their resume stacks up against the other regions. Region 5 seems stronger this year than region 4 so I would guess you'll see more teams come from this region for at-large bids than the other. Just depends on how the AQs break down.

Bubble
Kean, Stockton, Rowan, Lycoming, Catholic, Scranton, Muhles--all of these teams have a chance to be regionally ranked and also win their AQ. If they don't win the AQ will they be ranked high enough to come off the board? These are the definition of pure bubble teams.

Most Likely Out
Widener, Alvernia, Dickinson, PSU-Harrisburg--these teams pretty much need the AQ to get into the dance. A couple may stay in the regional rankings but they won't have a chance at an at-large bid to the tournament.
#6
Men's soccer / Re: Mid-Atlantic Region
October 23, 2023, 02:12:48 PM
A lot of intriguing results over the last week which made this a struggle for both personal rankings and regional predictions. My power rankings and best guesses below!

MAF Power Rankings (10/23)

Region 4
1. Montclair
2. Leb Val
3. Kean
4. Stevens
5. Stockton
6. Rowan
7. PSU-Harrisburg

-Swapping out Camden for PSU-Harrisburg as they have been on a skid over the last 2.5 weeks. 0-4-2 in their last 6 isn't good enough for me
-Stockton and Rowan face off in the season finale. Right now I have Stockton with the edge but Massey has Rowan by the slightest of margins. Winner gets 5th in my next rankings  ;D
-LVC at Stevens this weekend will be a fun one to watch and tell us more about both teams. I expect a rematch in a few weeks for the conference final 

Region 5
1. Messiah
2. F&M
3. JHU
4. Wash College
5. Lycoming
6. Scranton
7. Muhles

RV: Widener & Catholic

-Messiah & F&M with a stronghold on the top 2 spots
-JHU and WC battled it out and JHU came out on top. They get the nod at 3 ahead of WC but I wouldn't be surprised to see these 2 switched in the RR
-Lycoming continues to impress me. They get the nod over Scranton and Muhles this week
-Take your pick at #6 and #7 but I am going Scranton with the H2H win over Muhles
-Slotting the Muhles at 7th but easily could be out. 1-2-1 in their last 4 and trending in the wrong direction
-Widener and Catholic on the outside looking in but both could trump the Muhles or Royals over the next few weeks


MAF 2nd RR Predictions

Region 4
1. Montclair--They are the cream of the crop in this region. No one is close and they will be #1 for the next 3 rankings. Looking at a 3-1-0 RvR and solid SOS
2. Kean--Still unbeaten but the SOS is very low. Will they balance each other out? RvR is 2-0-1 or 2-0-2 w/Montclair left
3. LVC--They keep plugging away. A win vs Stevens would brighten their at-large chances. Somewhat low SOS and 1-1-0 RvR
4. Stevens--1-2-1 or 1-1-1 RvR with a strong SOS. They might inch higher than this as spots 2 through 5 are tight
5. Stockton--Close behind but still what I'd consider the next tier in this region. 1-2-3 RvR or 0-2-3 RvR. SOS is only thing saving them
6. Rowan--0-3-2 RvR with one chance left. At-large bid looks slim unless they beat Stockton. SOS is strong per usual for the Profs
7. PSU-Harrisburg--0-3-0 or 0-3-1 RvR but a strong SOS will keep them ahead of others and in the final slot

Region 5
1. Messiah--easy #1 w/either a 6-0-0 or 5-0-0 RvR and strong SOS
2. F&M--easy #2 w/5-1-0 RvR and strong SOS
3. Wash College--I have WC ahead in my power rankings but think they stay ahead of JHU here. Most likely a 2-1-1 RvR this week and solid SOS
4. Hopkins--H2H over WC but looking at 1-2-2 RvR maybe 2-2-2 RvR at best and a high SOS. The H2H might be enough for them to jump WC, especially if they get 2 ranked wins
5. Scranton--A lower SOS but potential for 2-0-2 or 2-1-2 RvR. Can't overlook the RvR and H2H results compared to others in the region including H2H over Muhles
6. Muhles--No ranked wins will haunt the Muhles. RvR of 0-2-1 or 0-3-1 will see them slip further down the region. A good SOS keeps them in this week but not by much. Look for them to drop out completely if they can't pick up a ranked win in the next week and a half.
7. Lycoming--One of the hottest teams in the region at 9-1-2 since their back to back losses against JHU and MW. Looking at 0-3-2 or 1-3-3 potential for RvR and a good SOS. Could still be on the outside looking in. Would not be surprised to see Widener or Catholic or both in over Scranton, Muhles or Lyco.

Others:
Widener--A sloppy tie with Stevenson and lower SOS will hurt the Pride's chances of cracking the rankings. 1-2-0 RvR won't be enough to offset the SOS and other's resumes. They could still be in at #7 with the ranked win helping their cause. I don't think they are the same caliber as the others predicted ahead of them. 
Catholic--A high SOS but a hefty amount of losses for the Cardinals, including a projected 0-3-0 RvR. Potential for 0-3-1 or 0-3-2 if Lyco/Scranton get ranked ahead of them. I see them slipping out this week with the RvR factored in although they could stay ahead of Scranton/Lyco. 1 more chance for a ranked win vs MW this week.

Slots 5-7 are going to be battled out by the last 5 teams on the board. All depends what the CMTE values. We know SOS is a big factor, but can be offset by RvR, H2H, common opponents, and win% as we dive into the 2nd release of the regional rankings.
#7
Men's soccer / Re: Mid-Atlantic Region
October 19, 2023, 11:31:18 AM
Quote from: paclassic89 on October 18, 2023, 10:48:25 PM
Widener tied Stevenson today.   They needed to be perfect down the stretch to have a shot at an at large.  I wouldn't be surprised if they drop out of the regional rankings and one of Lyco/Alvernia/Scranton replaces them in a week or two

I agree with your assessment. They have a subpar SOS that will most likely drop with their upcoming schedule. The tie certainly hurts them as Stevenson is struggling this season and looks to be under .500 even if they win out.

I think the big surprise was Catholic making the top 7. We don't know where they were ranked but would more than likely be that 7th spot. With RvR factoring in and results between now and then, I would agree that Widener could drop out and Lycoming or Scranton (or both) could jump in. Catholic has a high SOS but their record and RvR hurts them compared to others. 

Lots of matches left and I think this region will continue to shift until the last day.

Region 4 was pretty standard and no surprises in my opinion.
#8
Men's soccer / Re: Mid-Atlantic Region
October 17, 2023, 12:51:58 PM
Some games to watch this week...

-F&M @ Dickinson
-Hopkins @ WC
-Fords @ Hopkins
-Gettysburg @ F&M
-WC @ Muhles
-Alvernia @ Messiah
-LBC @ PSU Harrisburg
-PSU Abington @ PSU Harrisburg
-Stockton @ RUC
-Montclair @ RUC
-Drew @ Scranton
-Drew @ Lycoming
#9
Men's soccer / Re: Mid-Atlantic Region
October 16, 2023, 02:12:25 PM
Posting two different sets of rankings. The first are my normal "power" rankings and the second are my predictions for the first regional rankings that come out on Wednesday from the NCAA.

MAF Power Rankings (10/16)

Region 4
1. Montclair
2. Leb Val
3. Kean
4. Stevens
5. Stockton
6. Rowan
7. RUC

Region 5
1. Messiah
2. F&M
3. JHU
4. Wash College
T5. Muhles
T5. Lycoming
7. Widener



MAF 1st RR Predictions

Region 4
1. Montclair
2. Kean
3. LVC
4. Stockton
5. Stevens
6. Rowan
7. RUC

Region 5
1. Messiah
2. F&M
3. Wash College
4. Hopkins
5. Lycoming
6. Muhles
7. Scranton



A couple things to note for the NCAA RR predictions:

-Region 4 is a toss up. Montclair should be the unanimous #1 with both record, SOS, etc. Once RvR is factored into the 2nd rankings I believe that will solidify them at #1 for the remainder of year-assuming they go at least 1-1-1 in their last 3 matches.

-Kean I think will get the edge over LVC for the pure fact of being unbeaten. I also think they will edge out LVC with SOS, so those two things combined will give them the nod for 2nd.

-Stockton looks better on paper than Stevens right now. I give the slight edge to them, which slots Stevens at 5 for the time being.

-Slots 6 and 7 are up for grabs. Take your pick but I think Rowan is safely in at 6th. That 7th slot is anybody's best guess. It could be any of RUC, PSU-Abington, FDU, or PSU-Harrisburg. Others that could find themselves in the 7th slot by the end of the year are NYU and RUN. Both are a smidge under .500 right now but will have strong SOS when all said and done (which the CMTE tends to favor).

-Region 5 is more standard but still some room for ambiguity amongst the CMTE. 1 and 2 are no brainers with Messiah and F&M securing those.

-Slots 3 thru 6 could go a few different ways. I think WC will edge out JHU in the first rankings for the same reason Kean edges out LVC in region 4-still unbeaten. The CMTE will let these 2 decide over the next week and a half when they face each other and potentially in conference playoffs.

-Slots 5 and 6 are also up for debate. Lycoming has gained some traction after their back to back losses at JHU and MW earlier in the year. My best guess is they will have a similar SOS than the Muhles. It's a slim margin and I am going off the data plus the eyeball test. I think Lycoming is better right now but I would not be surprised one bit if they were reversed. Both of these teams are comfortably in the top 6 in some capacity.

-And slot 7...another toss up and will more than likely be the case for the remainder of the year. There are a handful of teams that could sneak into this spot. Widener, Scranton, Dickinson, Drew, and Catholic all come to mind. Alvernia and Etown both have an uphill battle to jump these other teams where they currently stand. Widener has the record but have dropped both "challenges" they have faced. I fear that the Pride's SOS will be too low to hold onto a regional ranking spot. They may jump Scranton in the 1st rankings, but I don't see them holding on once RvR comes into play. I give the nod to Scranton with also 2 losses but a stronger SOS and more signature results (ie: W over Muhles and T w/Kean & Catholic).

Only time will tell if the CMTE agrees!  :D
#10
Men's soccer / Re: Mid-Atlantic Region
October 15, 2023, 09:23:59 AM
Mid-Atlantic Recap

F&M bests Hopkins 4-3 in a Centennial battle. Both teams are skilled but F&M look much improved from some of the matches I tuned into early on.

Muhles survive Ursinus 1-0 and continue to put the pressure on WC, F&M and JHU. Still not sold on the Muhles as their best result is a tie vs JHU.

WC dismantles Gettysburg and stays unbeaten. We will find out how good they really are over the course of the next 3 games vs F&M, Muhles & JHU.

Dickinson drops another and the CC playoffs are looking more and more unlikely for the Red Devils.

Lycoming and Catholic tie 1-1 in a battle atop the Landmark. The Warriors looked the better side for most of the game.

Scranton comes from behind to down Juniata. Juniata was stingy defensively but the Royals were too much to handle.

Drew continue to impress dropping 6 goals on Goucher. Enjoyable to watch for the attacking minded fans.

Etown keeps pace in the Landmark with an easy 3-0 victory over Wilkes.

Stevens, LVC and Misericordia all win to keep pace in the Freedom.

Messiah, Alvernia and Widener all continue their winning ways in the Commonwealth. 

PSU-Abington is a team to watch in the United East as they have some nice results in non-conference and lead the pack.

St. Marys (Md), PSU-Harrisburg and Lancaster Bible all are close behind.
#11
Men's soccer / Re: Mid-Atlantic Region
October 11, 2023, 08:58:25 AM
Results added below!

Quote from: Mid-Atlantic Fan on October 10, 2023, 11:46:30 AM
Some midweek games of interest around the region:

Drew at Moravian (3-0)
Catholic at Etown (2-1)
Leb Val at Alvernia (0-0)
LBC at Messiah
Gettysburg at Mary Wash (1-4)
Salisbury at Hopkins
Rowan at RUC
RUN at Montclair
#12
Men's soccer / Re: Mid-Atlantic Region
October 10, 2023, 11:46:30 AM
Some midweek games of interest around the region:

Drew at Moravian
Catholic at Etown
Leb Val at Alvernia
LBC at Messiah
Gettysburg at Mary Wash
Salisbury at Hopkins
Rowan at RUC
RUN at Montclair
#13
Men's soccer / Re: Mid-Atlantic Region
October 09, 2023, 09:08:30 AM
MAF Power Rankings (10/9)

Region 4
1. Montclair
2. Leb Val
3. Kean
4. Stevens
5. Stockton
6. Rowan
7. RUC

Region 5
1. Messiah
2. F&M
3. JHU
4. Wash College
5. Muhles
6. Widener
7. Lycoming
#14
Men's soccer / Re: Mid-Atlantic Region
October 07, 2023, 09:27:51 AM
Never knew this! Pretty neat stuff.

Quote from: PaulNewman on October 07, 2023, 09:15:54 AM
I can't imagine that this wasn't mentioned on the board before and I somehow missed it....but just tripped on Christian Pulisic's father, Mark, previously being the long-term (12 years) coach at Lebanon Valley from '93 thru '04 when he handed the keys prior to the 2005 season to current head coach Charlie Grimes who was a star midfielder at Elizabethtown, helping the Blue Jays to 4 NCAA tourney appearances.
#15
It helps LVC moving to a weaker conference and weaker region. They will have a better chance at a higher regional ranking in Region 4 vs Region 5.

Another team I think you've overlooked is Lycoming. They currently sit atop the Landmark in their first season alongside Elizabethtown and they just bested Scranton on the road. I'd argue they are in the mix with Elizabethtown, Catholic and Scranton as a potential AQ from that conference. I believe they are now back in Region 5 with the conference move.

Lastly, Salisbury should be in Region 6 right? I could be wrong but don't recall them ever being in Region 4 or 5.

Quote from: paclassic89 on October 06, 2023, 08:50:31 PM
The conference move definitely helps because they are no longer in Messiah's conference so the odds of earning an AQ have gone way up haha .   The regional move probably helps as well because it's a move to a weaker region which makes it somewhat easier to get a higher regional ranking plus ranked wins