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Messages - USee

#1
Ruby is listed at 5-11. His production is prolific but his size is not gonna elicit much interest as a D3 from NFL. Hardy is 6-5 so his productions plus his size will get him looked at at least.
#2
Quote from: Gregory Sager on February 29, 2024, 10:07:45 AMYes, I was constantly bumping into the term "QOWI" during my 2006-07 re-read on Monday.

It felt a little like trying to decipher Middle English when I read The Canterbury Tales in college.

Is Middle English what they speak in Middle Earth? You read the Canterbury Tales at NPU? Isn't that about a golf trip to England?
#4
Quote from: bleedpurple on December 16, 2023, 10:21:36 PM
Quote from: emma17 on December 16, 2023, 08:16:31 PM
Bleed, although I'd like to start talking the Stagg, I'm looking for clarification of something you seem to remember me doing.
You said I was critical of Kotelnicki "in his early years". I don't think I'm mistaken- didn't he only coach at UWW in 2013 and 2014? Which of those two championship years would be the "early years" I was critical of him?

You are right, he coached in 2013 and 2014, so I guess there were no "early years". And considering we went 30-0 those two years,  perhaps your opportunities to criticize were limited. I'll withdraw that statement because I don't remember specifics. Since I can't back it up, I'll withdraw that.

2013 was the WIWA year. I may be misremembering you being critical of the offense/Kotelnicki. I will give you this: I think you jumped aboard WIWA faster than 02 did!  Wow, can't believe that was 10 years ago!

I think we could all agree we could find posts from Emma critical of every UWW offense since his retirement. More specifically the lack of slant passes!
#5
Antwain Walker, when healthy, was the best cover corner I have seen in D3 in a number of years (I haven't seen everybody—but I have seen a lot of great ones). He almost certainly would have tipped the scales in NCC's direction Friday. Lester (DPOY in the CCIW last year) would have changed it too but he was out all season effectively.

Impressive win by Cortland. They did what they had to do.
#6
Traditional coaching methods have indeed been for a RB to carry it in the left when going left and the right when going right. More recently, some coaches tell the RB to pick a dominant hand and always keep it there, learning how to secure the ball through contact. You see this in the NFL quite a bit.

I haven't seen enough of Cortland to make a prediction. It could be similar to the Wheaton/LaCrosse games is my initial thought. Those are the two best offenses (with average to weak defenses) NCC has faced.
#7
Alma rushed for 285 yds (#27 ranked rush off) so I am not anticipating much resistance to the nations #1 run game.

Offensively, Cortland has the highest rated offense NCC has faced this year (including Lacrosse) so could be a shootout.
#8
Interesting. I hadn't noticed Sam Pryor in there as well. I know Wheaton did this at the end of their game v UWW with AA OL Trevor Gabriele and Paul Fay playing DL. I wish it worked like this!
#9
I want to give my outside perspective and props to the NCC coaches and in particular Shane Dierking. Brad Spencer is 29-0 since taking over, which is unreal but I have to shout out Dierking, who lost a huge number of players from last years defense, which was one of the historically great NCC defenses, and he pieced together a group of guys this year that have performed at a very high level. He had 3 AA/All conference DL that aren't playing for him this year and he still produced the CCIW and likely AA DE Martin Egbo, got senior Will Kettelkamp to play arguably his best game ever yesterday, inserted a freshman at DE when Egbo went down who performed incredibly, subbed in for BJ Adamchik yesterday in the 2H, replaced the best cover corner in D3 with Soph Ethan Groak, who was a train wreck early this season but ended up making a few huge plays yesterday. All of these guys (including Jeske Maples) made 2 absolutely monstrous 4th down stops when they had to late in the 4th yesterday. They did so because they were prepared and in the right places. Wartburg is great at outflanking defenses and exploiting matchups with shifts and motions. The final 4th down was a great example where they overloaded the left side with their WR's and then got Hunter Clasen out on the weak side for what would be a sure fire first down against most teams. But LB Zack Orr was where he was supposed to be and made a great tackle against an AA RB to end the game.

I hope Dierking gets a chance to lead a D3 program (hopefully in a conference far, far away from Chicago) this year. He is as deserving a coach as there is in the division. His results since he has been DC at NCC speak for themselves and this year might have been his best coaching job ever.
#10
Incredible game. Played out about how I thought it might with Wartburg scoring 27 (I thought 24-34) while also holding NCC to their lowest offensive output of the season. In the end, the young guys on defense who stepped in made some great plays and the offense produced just enough highlights to head to Salem for a 4th straight year. Very impressive performance.

Most may have not noticed but my absolute favorite play of the game was the 4th and 1 for Wartburg at the NCC 5 yard line with 2:28 left. Wartburg subbed in Owen Grover as an H-back to block and NCC subbed in AA starting left Tackle Jeske Maples as the DE over Wartburg's left side. Grover ended up blocking Maples on the play and was in on the tackle as NCC stopped Wartburg for no gain. An AA defensive player playing offense and an AA offensive player playing defense on the most important play of a semifinal with a trip to Salem on the line. Absolutely classic.

#11
Quote from: USee on December 05, 2023, 01:09:53 PM
Quote from: DriftlessDuhawk on December 05, 2023, 11:49:33 AM
Quote from: WRMUalum13 on December 05, 2023, 11:30:09 AM

According to computer metrics, which I think do a nice job adjusting for opponents, Wartburg's D is by far the best that NCC will have faced all year. Will certainly be interesting.

No doubt the Wartburg defense is incredible and simply does not blow coverages and does not make mistakes. I just wonder if the methods they have used in their games prior will work against a team that has such a prolific run game.

Well, this is big question. Wartburg is the #1 run defense in the country, allowing 1.6 yds per carry. The next best defensive front NCC has faced this year isn't even in the zip code of how good Wartburg is up front on defense. NCC is the #1 offense and has an 8.15 yds per carry stat. Something's got to give. Of some relevance, UWW is the #9 rushing offense at 6.02 yds per carry and Wartburg held them to 94 yds (3.6 yds per carry). Never mind that Tamir Thomas only had 12 carries (at 6 yds per carry) or that UWW inexplicably threw it 39x and only ran it 26 times. That won't happen Saturday. NCC is going to run the ball around 40x at this Wartburg defense, guaranteed. Now, Wartburg hasn't seen an offense like NCC's this year either (UWW's rush offense is close, but not as good) as Lehnen is setting a Guinness Book of World Records for efficiency.

I'll be fascinated to see how this plays out (after the coin toss of course). I wonder what Emma's father will say!

On the other side, which is equally important, NCC's defense was #14, which I would argue is a little inflated, and Wartburg's offense is top 25. Wartburg can run the ball and have a balanced attack. I agree with Hazz, they have great schemes and are very well coached. If NCC is without their DPOY DE Egbo (#9) and/or (what I believe is) the best cover corner in D3, #26 Walker, I have serious concerns about NCC's defense.

My guess is Wartburg can score in the 24-34 pt range (maybe more if those two aren't avail). Can they hold NCC to their lowest output of the season?

Just re-read my pregame thoughts from earlier in the week. #1 D vs #1 O produced about 3.2 yds per carry. Very impressive performance from Wartburg front 7. NCC rushed it 53 times and threw it 19. Wartburg was a little more pass heavy but still fairly balanced (49 pass/33 rush).

DE Egbo started but didn't play after the first quarter or so and NCC's AA cover corner didn't play. NCC's defense was still impressive down the stretch and held Wartburg right in the middle of my prediction (27 pts). Wartburg did limit NCC to their lowest output of the season and this was an instant classic. Congrats to Wartburg on an epic postseason. While it will sting to fall a couple plays short, this team performed at the highest level and over the last two weeks has proven to those who haven't watched as closely as the insiders that they are on an elite level.

Emma, did you watch this with your parents?
#12
All of us who have been around a while understand that circumstances, affecting 1-2 players, can make these gaps appear larger or smaller in any given year. Bleed and I have discussed this and the reality is there are a handful of programs that are 1 to 3 players away from the Stagg Bowl. Sometimes those players aren't on your team, sometimes they are and they get injured. It takes consistent recruiting to build great depth, great coaching and a little luck to be one of the premier programs year in and year out.
#13
I might be wrong (I have been many times) but I don't think teams that use the term "Pound the Rock" usually care who they play, especially if they play in the #1 conference in the nation.

I will be shocked if NCC is anything other than 60-70% run they have used all year this weekend at Wartburg, despite having a Gagliardi finalist as QB.
#14
Slippery slop Bleed! Let's look deeper:

When UWW got the ball back with 1:33 left in the 2nd qtr (After the Ogden fumble that allowed Wartburg to score ) they led 21-17. To that point in the game they had run 29 plays, 15 pass and 14 run. They had 178 yds passing and 74 rushing. When they got the ball at 1:33, UWW ran three plays, all passes (2 inc and a completion for +5) and punted the ball back to Wartburg at 1:22. They had run just 11 seconds off the clock. Wartburg did nothing with it and punted back to UWW with just 48 seconds in the half. UWW, at their own 19 passed the ball 2x and then a 3 yard run to Tamir Thomas ended the half. So at halftime, UWW had run 15 plays, 20 pass and 15 run.

Wartburg gets the ball to start the second half and drives the field to take a 24-21 lead. The rest of the 2nd half with a less than 1 score difference, UWW threw 16x for 162 yds and ran 9x for 36 yds.

When UWW got the ball back at their own 31, with 51 seconds left, down 31-28, and 2 timeouts, they threw it 4x (the last one the INT). So UWW built a 21-10 lead through the 5:09 mark of the second quarter, it was on the strength of balanced offense (15 pass, 14 run—not the 40/60 ratio they had the whole season) and the rest of the way they ran 25 passes and 12 runs. By the way, all 3 turnovers (not including the kneel down punt) were on passing plays.
#15
I was very surprised at the distribution vs Wartburg. Tamir Thomas went for 6 yds per carry but had just 12 carries. UWW ran for 94 total yards on 26 rush. Very surprising.