Big Dance

Started by Falconer, November 11, 2019, 02:34:57 PM

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Falconer

Suggest that we start a new thread for the tournament.

NokeAlum15

It feels good to be back   ;D
1993 National Quarterfinalist
Six NCAA Appearances
Nine-Time ODAC Champions
Six-Time VISA Champions

d4_Pace

Alright who's the got hardest bracket? I think it's the Amherst-Messiah Oneonta

Falconer

What are the toughest pods for rounds 1 & 2?

I would say (potentially) Messiah vs Oneonta in round 2 has to be at or near the top of any list. (If I'm not being objective, I'm sure I'll hear about it.  ;D)

CNU-Roanoke (2nd round) is probably next.

OWU-Chicago (2nd round) has to be mentioned. Ditto Conn-Hopkins (2nd round). Ithac-Amherst (2nd round) perhaps next. I don't put PSU/Behrend-Kenyon in nearly the same category: not convinced that PSU is as good as their ranking.

Falconer

Quote from: d4_Pace on November 11, 2019, 02:57:29 PM
Alright who's the got hardest bracket? I think it's the Amherst-Messiah Oneonta
Agreed--see my post above.

GoThunder1

Sweet 16:
Amherst
Rowan
RPI
Messiah
JCU
CMS
F&M
Rochester
JHU
CNU
Tufts
W&L
Chicago
Luther
Calvin
North Park

Elite 8
Amherst
Messiah
JCU
F&M
CNU
Tufts
Chicago
North Park

Final 4
Amherst
JCU
Tufts
North Park

Championship
Amherst
Tufts

Tufts wins

Ejay

JHU/Conn College/Catholic is no picnic

Hopkins92

Hopkins got rewarded in the first round, but CC and Catholic are both good squads. I've watched some Catholic games this year and they are very good going forward as a unit. Getting to host doesn't hurt, either, as they are VERY strong there. That said, this the best COLLECTIVE approach I've seen from Hop in a long long time. The fact that they are mixing up their style of play when necessary is a HUGE change to the good.

But I agree Messiah probably has the toughest first weekend.

Gregory Sager

Quote from: Falconer on November 11, 2019, 03:03:49 PMOWU-Chicago (2nd round) has to be mentioned.

It's not a foregone conclusion that that game will even take place. Hope is no gimme, especially at home. I watched the Dutch's scoreless draw with Calvin in the MIAA tourney title game two days ago (played at Calvin, BTW), in which the Knights took the MIAA autobid via PKs, and Hope acquitted itself very well in that contest.

The Bishops are the legit favorite. Nevertheless, it wouldn't surprise me one bit if it's Hope that advances to play the Maroons, not Ohio Wesleyan.
"To see what is in front of one's nose is a constant struggle." -- George Orwell

PaulNewman

Quote from: Falconer on November 11, 2019, 03:03:49 PM
What are the toughest pods for rounds 1 & 2?

I would say (potentially) Messiah vs Oneonta in round 2 has to be at or near the top of any list. (If I'm not being objective, I'm sure I'll hear about it.  ;D)

CNU-Roanoke (2nd round) is probably next.

OWU-Chicago (2nd round) has to be mentioned. Ditto Conn-Hopkins (2nd round). Ithac-Amherst (2nd round) perhaps next. I don't put PSU/Behrend-Kenyon in nearly the same category: not convinced that PSU is as good as their ranking.

You're comparing 2nd round possible match-ups with Kenyon's 1st round match.  Ps-B is no joke....only one of two teams with a better W/L record than Kenyon and may be this year's version of St. Joe's.  And how did you miss a possible Kenyon-ROCHESTER 2nd round tilt?

I'll have to look again but I think JCU has a fabulous draw to the Elite 8 and no doubt would be hosting if they get through the weekend which is an advantage playing on that Don Shula turf.

Ejay

Quote from: Gregory Sager on November 11, 2019, 03:46:41 PM
Hope is no gimme, especially at home. I watched the Dutch's scoreless draw with Calvin in the MIAA tourney title game two days ago (played at Calvin, BTW), in which the Knights took the MIAA autobid via PKs, and Hope acquitted itself very well in that contest.

If I recall correctly, there was some debate when Brandt took the Hope job as to how long before he returned the program to relevancy. Some said 5 years. Well, it's been 2. I fully expect in another 2-3 years when the team is filled with his recruits, they'll be even stronger.

Year  W-L-T   MIAA        Coach
2019  14-5-1 2nd (6-1-0) Dave Brandt
2018  14-3-1  4th (4-2-1)  Dave Brandt
2017  7-10-2  4th (6-6-2)  Steven Smith
2016  6-12-1  6th (4-9-1)  Steven Smith
2015  9-10-1  4th (6-7-1)  Steven Smith

Domino1195

Quote from: Gregory Sager on November 11, 2019, 03:46:41 PM
Quote from: Falconer on November 11, 2019, 03:03:49 PMOWU-Chicago (2nd round) has to be mentioned.

It's not a foregone conclusion that that game will even take place. Hope is no gimme, especially at home. I watched the Dutch's scoreless draw with Calvin in the MIAA tourney title game two days ago (played at Calvin, BTW), in which the Knights took the MIAA autobid via PKs, and Hope acquitted itself very well in that contest.

The Bishops are the legit favorite. Nevertheless, it wouldn't surprise me one bit if it's Hope that advances to play the Maroons, not Ohio Wesleyan.

Agreed - caught parts of their OT game versus UC. OWU's starting keeper has missed several games with a concussion (left midway through the first Wabash game).  The reserve keeper did not have a good game versus Kenyon Saturday - twice he left the 6, twice Kenyon scored tough angle goals - not sure he had to do anything except stay home.  But even with the 2-1 loss to Kenyon, that's only 10 goals conceded this year by OWU.

PaulNewman

The Amherst bracket is loaded but not so much for Amherst....pretty open to Sweet 16 and then a potential Sweet 16 game against Rowan or MW...a good Sweet 16 challenge but not overwhelming especially at Amherst.  The bottom with RPI, MIdd, Messiah and Oneonta is stacked. 

Prediction:  RPI vs Midd.....0-0-0-0 2OT....Midd advances on PKs 14-13 or 1-0.

Hopkins has a good draw as long as they aren't thwarted by one of the best GKs in the country with Conn....but Conn has to win away at Catholic.

Tufts also has a great draw, with an easy road to the Sweet 16 and nothing really tough until a potential Elite 8 clash with Hopkins (if Hopkins is still around).

Calvin has a good draw imo and could be looking at yet another match with Chicago.


blooter442

Round of 32: Amherst, Ithaca, Mary Washington, Rowan, RPI, Middlebury, Messiah, Oneonta, JCU, Centre, CMS, UT-Dallas, F&M, Montclair, Kenyon, Rochester, Hopkins, Conn., CNU, Roanoke, Tufts, WPI, W&L, Oglethorpe, Chicago, Hope, Luther, Central, Calvin, St. Norbert, NPU, Colorado College

Sweet 16: Amherst, Mary Washington, Middlebury, Messiah, John Carroll, UT-Dallas, F&M, Kenyon, Hopkins, CNU, Tufts, W&L, Chicago, Central, Calvin, NPU

Elite 8: Amherst, Messiah, John Carroll, Kenyon, Hopkins, Tufts, Chicago, Calvin

Final 4: Amherst, Kenyon, Tufts, Chicago

Championship: Amherst 1-0 Tufts

Notes:

- As I said last year very much shooting from the hip (and, to the Tufts faithful, I would not be completely surprised to see the same Final matchup with the scoreline reversed). Tufts has not lost a Final 4 game (ever!) and a final between the two would be uncharted territory.
- Both of the NESCAC's top two will, in all likelihood, be hosting to the Final 4 — a contrast to when all the NESCACs have been in the same quartile of the bracket.
- I feel like this Amherst team is a lot like their 2015 team — including losing the NESCAC quarters at home. Tufts was deserved NESCAC winners and held the No. 1 spot for quite a while, but I do feel Amherst just has a bit more this year; last year, it was the reverse, as both the regular season and Sweet 16 games showed. They seem more ruthless, and I think much like 2015 their loss perhaps came at the right time.
- I've been impressed with Babson this year, and think they might have gotten a Pool C anyway, but do not think they overcome Oneonta. Then again, didn't see them beating Tufts, either.
- Middlebury isn't fun to watch IMHO but defense counts at this point in the year and they have a solid rearguard.
- Chicago: Five ties is a lot, and it took a while for the Maroons to get going, but going 7-0 in the UAA is no mean feat. I think they have usurped Calvin as the team to beat in that quartile (a reverse of when I said earlier in the year I'd be impressed if Chicago avoided a loss to Calvin). They were hard done by in 2017 in that year's semifinal, but got blown out of the water last year. Will this year be the year they win a semi? Tough to see them getting by Tufts.

PaulNewman

#14
The chairperson for the South Atlantic should get a raise....7 out of 8 ranked teams in.

And how in the world did Oneonta at 17-2 and 4-1 RvR and very similar SoS not get above Ithaca?

Texas Lutheran knocked out Trinity in the conference tourney but got a bid for the Tigers anyway by getting ranked and adding two wins and a loss to the Trinity RvR.