This may be early, but the South Region seems to be loaded with teams with great records so far. Six teams usually make regionals, but this year might spell otherwise because so many of the top teams in the country reside in the south. Some early records from the region...feel free to add or update.
THROUGH MARCH 24, 2007
Rhodes --- 22-4
Salisbury --- 19-3
Emory --- 18-3
Averett --- 27-6
Millsaps --- 18-6
Maryville --- 18-7
NC Wesleyan --- 19-11
Methodist --- 17-7
CNU --- 17-7
Wash & Lee --- 13-6
LaGrange --- 16-7
Virginia Wesleyan --- 14-7
Huntingdon --- 14-8
St. Mary's --- 13-8
Lynchburg --- 13-9
Greensboro --- 14-12
Ferrum --- 13-11
York --- 8-4
Samuel Adams, thanks for starting the thread.
That looks like a good list. Would you be able to go back and find the "in-region records" for the first 6-10 teams? The in-region record is an important criteria for the regional rankings which we will get in late April.
An in-region game has 4 components to its definition:
-- in conference.
-- in the South Evaluation Region. (The 2007 Handbook is not out yet. Here is the link to the 2006 Handbook (http://www.ncaa.org/library/handbooks/baseball/2006/2006_d3_baseball_handbook.pdf).)
-- within a 200-mile radius. (You can try msn.mappoint.com "Shortest Distance" for that.)
-- and new for 2006-07, within the Administrative Regions. Region #1 is the New England 6, NJ, DE, DC, MD. Region #2 is NY and PA. Region #3 is VA, NC, SC, GA, FL, AL, MS, LA, AR, TN KY, IN, MI, OH, WV.
Thanks. I look forward to your list. (One of the things that you fans can do it to try is to complie these data and other such content. That is what has made the Football and Hoops boards so valuable. If you have a question, then personal-message me or email me or even write the question on the message board. Someone will be glad to help you learn the "ins-and-outs" of the NCAA. We are all learning this stuff daily! ;) )
One other thing...I have never had another fan flame me for a typo or data accumulation error when I have been compiling these lists. I always appreciate a fan "proof-reading" or "double-checking" my work!
Thanking you in advance... :)
i'll give you a hand with regional records - the monarchs are currently 11-6 in region
UPDATED THROUGH MARCH 25, 2007
(The best I could with info provided...change if need be...tough region)
Rhodes --- 24-4 --- 16-4 in Region
Salisbury --- 19-3 --- 5-1 in Region
Emory --- 19-3 --- 12-1 in Region
Averett --- 27-7 --- 16-7 in Region
Millsaps --- 19-6 --- 7-3 in Region
Maryville --- 19-7 --- 8-3 in Region
NC Wesleyan --- 20-11 --- 13-11 in Region
Methodist --- 18-7 --- 12-6 in Region
CNU --- 17-8 --- 13-7 in Region
Wash & Lee --- 13-6 --- 6-3 in Region
LaGrange --- 16-9 --- 11-9 in Region
Virginia Wesleyan --- 14-8 --- 11-5 in Region
Huntingdon --- 15-8 --- 8-7 in Region
St. Mary's --- 14-10 --- 2-3 in Region
Lynchburg --- 13-9 --- 7-7 in Region
Greensboro --- 16-12 --- 7-9 in Region
Ferrum --- 13-11 --- 11-8 in Region
York --- 10-4 --- 3-4 in Region
A bit early, but a shot in the dark at your 2007 South Region:
#1 - Emory
#2 - Salisbury
#3 - Millsaps
#4 - Rhodes
#5 - Ferrum
#6 - Methodist
Samuel....did I miss something or did the NCAA boot this years ODAC conference champion out of the South Regional?
Hampden-Sydney Tigers
2005 ODAC Champions
2005 NCAA Division III South Regional Champions
2005 NCAA Division III World Series
With the way the ODAC played this year against the USA South, I would not be surprised if they were booted out.
Then again, I would not be surprised if an ODAC team ends up winning the south regional :)
falcon2720......I wish you wouldn't have said that....I was beamig with confidence after our last three games against the USA South, (NC Wesleyan, Ferrum, & Methodist)..... you just reminded me how inferior the top teams in the ODAC are against the all mighty USA South.....boy did you bust my bubble...... we don't stand a chance now do we ::)
h-sc bball,
to answer your question, you don't have a shot.
you guys went 3-6 against the USA South. More losses in 9 USA South match-ups then in 18 match-ups against ODAC teams.
You got swept by 5th place CNU.
You beat Averett by 1- AU pitchers only gave up one earned run. Seems like they beat themselves.
You beat NCWC by 1- NCWC did not throw any of their top 4 pitchers (Rice, Roberson, Pearson, Moore). NCWC was playing their 7th game in 7 days. They also had a big series the next day against Ferrum, while you guys had a tough series against a (9-25) Roanoke team.
You beat Ferrum by 1 in extra innings. You scored most of your runs against a pitcher with an ERA of 15.4 and who has thrown only 2 innings all year.
The ODAC is a combined (10 teams) W 152 and L 203 for a whopping .428 winning %.
The USA South is a combined (7 teams) W 176 and L 103 for a .631 winning %
The USA South owns the ODAC this year W50-L19 for a .725 winning %
Its obvious which conference is better.
I sure do love stats :)
Good luck in your tournament.
The team you need to fear if they make it is Lynchburg...more than held their own against the mighty golliaths from the USASAC.
Quote from: SamuelAdams on April 24, 2007, 08:22:22 PM
A bit early, but a shot in the dark at your 2007 South Region:
#1 - Emory
#2 - Salisbury
#3 - Millsaps
#4 - Rhodes
#5 - Ferrum
#6 - Methodist
I expect Millsaps would end up in the Central to make way for the ODAC Champion.
Hornets19,
Lynchburg and VWC seemed to be the only teams that held their own against the USA-South
Quote from: Hornets19 on April 25, 2007, 11:05:42 AM
The team you need to fear if they make it is Lynchburg...more than held their own against the mighty golliaths from the USASAC.
they need to get in the regional before anyone fears them...although they are a very solid team
Quote from: Jim Dixon on April 25, 2007, 11:30:48 AM
Quote from: SamuelAdams on April 24, 2007, 08:22:22 PM
A bit early, but a shot in the dark at your 2007 South Region:
#1 - Emory
#2 - Salisbury
#3 - Millsaps
#4 - Rhodes
#5 - Ferrum
#6 - Methodist
I expect Millsaps would end up in the Central to make way for the ODAC Champion.
Could happen.
Could see Chapman, Pac Lu, George Fox, the ASC champion, the SLIAC champion and Millsaps or Rhodes in a Texas-based tournament (I think both have a shot to get in right now). I just think with the NEAC and NAC getting automatic bids and the number of teams that look like potential regional teams in the South, that everything's going to flow east. I think the SLIAC champion could get shipped just to try to balance things out a little bit. I would also imagine there's some forward momentum to have the regional somewhere other than Hart Park.
The glut of teams in the country's northeast is going to have to go somewhere, either south or west. Either way, some folks are getting displaced somewhere.
FYI, Villa Julie has an automatic bid into the regional and is a South Region team.
Quote from: Spence on April 25, 2007, 08:50:58 PM
FYI, Villa Julie has an automatic bid into the regional and is a South Region team.
at 13-1 in their conference, you'd think they stand a pretty good chance of winning that tourney, too...although they are kind of like salisbury in that they could go to a regional in nj or pa just as easily as a true southern regional tournament
i can't believe that team has 20 wins this season...they looked AWFUL against the monarchs, losing 14-1
Take a look at my thread on the conference power rankings on the main board. You'll understand why they can be 13-1 in conference and have 20 wins but get hammered 14-1.
Keystone's not eligible. I thought VJ already won it. Maybe not.
Villa Julie is a good team to fill out the bracket. They are geographically close to the South and to the Mid-Atlantic.
I agree with Spence's overall impressions that the New England teams will push down the seaboard. I also think that Millsaps and Rhodes get moved into the Central.
If StLouis is hosting, then those are convenient.
Or Bloomington. I still wonder what's going to happen out West though. One of Millsaps or Rhodes or both could end up going West, because I think some folks are going to be pushed west from the Mideast into the Central (at Bloomington?) It's just going to be a big domino effect, I think. There are 7 automatic bids just in New England, for example. That's where it starts.
Adding another bid back east (NEAC) and taking one away from the Midwest (Lake Michigan) makes moving people more necessary as well.
I don't know how much ends up moving West. IF George Fox sweeps out the NWC this week, and then takes 4 of 6 from Chapman/East Bay I think they deserve an at large bid, and depending on what UT Dallas does in the ASC tournament, they could be there too. That puts 6 teams out West w/o Rhodes or Millsaps.
That's true, but those are two big ifs right now. Both those teams are on the bubble.
i did some calculations for the monarchs
south region win % - .687 (22-10)
south region opp win % - .588 (388-272)
estimated qowi (using south region opp. overall record rather than regional record...too much work involved computing the exact number) - 9.97
2-1 vs. york and salisbury (beating york and splitting with salisbury) pushes the estimated qowi to 10.14
does 2-1 get the monarchs in???
Quote from: narch on April 26, 2007, 02:30:45 PM
i did some calculations for the monarchs
south region win % - .687 (22-10)
south region opp win % - .588 (388-272)
estimated qowi (using south region opp. overall record rather than regional record...too much work involved computing the exact number) - 9.97
2-1 vs. york and salisbury (beating york and splitting with salisbury) pushes the estimated qowi to 10.14
does 2-1 get the monarchs in???
Judging from the recently released regional rankings, I would say that Methodist gets in. That said, there is a lot of baseball left to be played in other regions that could effect Methodist's standing esspecially considering that two unranked teams (Ferrum and Bridgewater) have AQs. Best of luck to the Monarchs, I hope the criteria breaks favorably for them.
I count Methodist's In-region record as being 23-10 tonight. I think that they need to sweep Salisbury and York Pa (DH) in the next 8 days.
That Sunday loss to Lynchburg may come back to haunt them.
Quote from: Ralph Turner on April 29, 2007, 09:35:27 PM
I count Methodist's In-region record as being 23-10 tonight. I think that they need to sweep Salisbury and York Pa (DH) in the next 8 days.
if they were to sweep salisbury and york, they would be an absolute lock for a pool c, in my opinion...that's tough to do, though - you don't think 2-1 vs. those teams gives them a shot, ralph?
Since the last regional rankings, Bridgewater and Ferrum are now both in the NCAA Regionals. This is what the teams ranked have done and where they currently stand with games left.
CLINCHED
Ferrum - 23-16 - Finished
Bridgewater - 21-21 - Finished
LOOKING
Emory - 35-7 - 4-0 - Finished (Seem to locked up #1 seed)
Salisbury - 27-7 - 1-0 - 7 Games vs. VJulie, JHopk, Meth, Wsly, & MontSt
York - 27-9 - 2-1 - 5 Games vs. Getty, JHopk, Meth, NCW
Methodist - 28-11 - 0-0 - 3 games vs. York, Salisbury
Rhodes - 36-10 - 1-2 - Finished
Mary Washington - 24-11-1 - 0-2 - 2 games vs. JHopk, VJulie
OTHERS
Millsaps - 35-11 - 2-2 - Finished
Averett - 31-12 - 0-0 - Finished
With important games still left, this is a decent bet on the Region.
#1 - Emory
#2 - Salisbury
#3 - York
#4 - Methodist / Rhodes (Methodist sweeps 3-0, they're in)
#5 - Ferrum
#6 - Bridgewater
I still think Millsaps gets shipped to the Central, but only time will tell.
Quote from: narch on April 29, 2007, 11:08:23 PM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on April 29, 2007, 09:35:27 PM
I count Methodist's In-region record as being 23-10 tonight. I think that they need to sweep Salisbury and York Pa (DH) in the next 8 days.
if they were to sweep salisbury and york, they would be an absolute lock for a pool c, in my opinion...that's tough to do, though - you don't think 2-1 vs. those teams gives them a shot, ralph?
narch, I think that we have as many bubble teams in baseball as we did in hoops!
I don't know about 2-1. I feel more comfortable about predicting the affirmative with 3-0.
the monarchs clearly don't need any other upsets like austin college pulled this weekend winning the scac...i had been counting on either millsaps or rhodes to win that tourney and claim a pool a with the other getting a pool c...now we add 2 quality teams to pool c instead of 1
Quote from: narch on April 30, 2007, 02:07:17 PM
the monarchs clearly don't need any other upsets like austin college pulled this weekend winning the scac...i had been counting on either millsaps or rhodes to win that tourney and claim a pool a with the other getting a pool c...now we add 2 quality teams to pool c instead of 1
Aren't both Rhodes and Millsaps bellow Methodist in the regional rankings anyway? If that is the case then I do not see how an Austin College victory hurts Methodist that much if any.
FERRUM TO HOST REGIONAL TOURNAMENT...
...you heard it here, first.
Quote from: religion_major on April 30, 2007, 04:53:49 PM
Aren't both Rhodes and Millsaps bellow Methodist in the regional rankings anyway? If that is the case then I do not see how an Austin College victory hurts Methodist that much if any.
primarily because there is now one additional team fighting for a limited number of pool c slots and the monarchs still have 3 very difficult games remaining...one loss in those contests could send the monarchs below BOTH millsaps and rhodes in the regional rankings
Quote from: Hornets19 on April 30, 2007, 06:26:59 PM
FERRUM TO HOST REGIONAL TOURNAMENT...
...you heard it here, first.
is this speculation or fact? it's nowhere to be found on the usasac or ferrum sites?
Quote from: narch on May 01, 2007, 02:31:35 PM
Quote from: Hornets19 on April 30, 2007, 06:26:59 PM
FERRUM TO HOST REGIONAL TOURNAMENT...
...you heard it here, first.
is this speculation or fact? it's nowhere to be found on the usasac or ferrum sites?
Trust me on this one...
i've got the monarchs at 9.53 qowi counting only regional records for all of their opponents - a win sat vs. york and a split @ salisbury would push them to 9.74, assuming york then splits with ncwc
mu has 3 games remaining vs. teams who are CURRENTLY better than .667...if mu beats york, they (mu fans/players/coaches) need to root for a york/ncwc split so that york stays above .667
i get 305 pts/32 games = 9.53 qowi...not sure which game i'm missing as a regional game, but the regional rankings show mu with a 23-10 regional record - i can't imagine capital, endicott, tufts or lawrence would be a regional game? - the salisbury split would be an 22 point split, the ycp win would be a 14 point win giving mu 341 pts/35 games = 9.74 qowi
a sweep, consequently, would give the monarchs a 9.97 qowi
will 2-1 be enough...
Capital (OAC) is in Admininstrative Region #3 by the new rules this year.
Endicott, Tufts and Lawrence are not.
The administrative region stuff counts in the regional record and the QOWI?
Yep:
http://www.d3baseball.com/faq/category/NCAA+Tournament
Yeah that last part is new to me.
So, at the risk of being directed back to the FAQ, what is the purpose of the administrative regions? Are they going to make at-large judgments by administrative region rather than the old-school regions? I thought those were supposed to be national anyway.
I guess I'm just confused. I don't understand the intended effect of the administrative regions. I'm not criticizing it, just saying I don't get it.
Quote from: Spence on May 04, 2007, 11:02:01 PM
Yeah that last part is new to me.
So, at the risk of being directed back to the FAQ, what is the purpose of the administrative regions? Are they going to make at-large judgments by administrative region rather than the old-school regions? I thought those were supposed to be national anyway.
I guess I'm just confused. I don't understand the intended effect of the administrative regions. I'm not criticizing it, just saying I don't get it.
Spence, the NCAA has tried to increase the number of potential in-region opponents (regional emphasis being part of the core of D3) by adding another group of teams that would be considered in-region.
The next incremental expansion (after the 200-mile radius rule) is the Administrative Region rule which became effective this year..
The NCAA recognizes 4 administrative regions for its governance. These are:
#1) New England, NJ, DE, MD and DC
#2) NY and PA
#3) VA, WV, OH, MI, IN, KY, TN, AR, LA, MS, AL GA, FL, SC and NC.
#4) TX, OK, KS, MO, IL, WI and west to HI and AK.
I think we're kind of in a no-man's land in Division III right now, standing between the Division III philosophy, which emphasizes regional play, and the coaches expressed desire to have all games against Division III opponents count in the primary criteria for playoff selection. Adding the already-existing administrative regions to the primary criteria equation was an attempt to provide some relief to the coaches.
It was much debated and discussed and was not the most popular solution.
Gotcha.
I'm not holding my breath, but it would be great to see a USA South/OAC challenge series or something. Maybe get 2-3 of the top teams from each conference to meet somewhere for a 3-4 day round robin (not playing the teams in your own conference, obviously) where everyone's on level terms pitching-wise and all games would count as road games in-region. The times when Ferrum and Methodist came to Marietta for the short-lived in-season tournament (every team played 6 games in 3 days) we hosted were great. Good competition, good crowds.
Would be great for fans, not so much for in-region record. As far as the criteria goes, you'd be better off playing four against Villa Julie, someone you know will be over .500 but would be an easier touch than a USA South team.
Well, probably not so much anymore once opponents' opponents' record comes back into play next season.
Seems to still work pretty well for the Missouri Valley and Duke in D-I basketball, but we'll see if it does for baseball, I guess.
I will use the change in subject heading to welcome all South Region baseball fans back for the 2008 season.
???
Why not just start a new thread...so folks won't have to read through 3 pages of 2007 stuff ???
You can just skip over 2007 and jump to the most recent post. :)
LaGrange's Michael Sims (http://www.d3baseball.com/notables/2008/02/05/All+Rhodes+lead+to+Appleton) is pictured on the South Region Preview on D3baseball.com.
Just saw Emory won their Rawlings tournament against York and Greensboro... and doing it on the mound with some new freshman pitchers.
Makes it scary when it was believed they were only going to hit this year after graduating those arms.
Millsaps dropped its third-straight and fourth in five games tonight, losing an 11-3 decision to Division I Jacksonville State. The Majors can't seem to find their rhythm on offense in the early season and have used a different lineup almost every game thus far. Millsaps is now 6-5 after starting 5-1 with wins over #28 Rhodes, LaGrange and #5 Emory. They continue an 8-game road swing tomorrow against Jax State at 3 p.m.
OK...now April 10 and conference standings are starting to shake out. How do the esteemed members of this panel see the regional tourney shaking out? I don't know all the ins and outs of the bids other than the auto-bids...but I know some teams are playing very well even if they do not get the A pool bids.
my opinion
locks:
salisbury (although they haven't played an incredibly difficult schedule, they've won all but one game)
piedmont (tough schedule, good results)
emory (solid schedule, solid results)
odac champ
usasac champ
they've got a shot
lynchburg has an outside chance as a pool c if they stump their toe in the odac tournament...but it's an outside shot as do cnu, mu and ncwc in the usasac, but all are a long-shot if they don't win the aq
of course teams from other conferences that aren't in this section of the board may be moved in (or teams from these conferences could get moved out)
Pool B 2007:
Pool B • Independent Qualifiers (6)
School Conference Record Appearance
Chapman University (Calif.) Independent 35-5 10th
College of St. Scholastica (Minn.) Upper Midwest Athletic Conference 36-6 4th
Emory University (Ga.) University Athletic Association 35-7 9th
Ithaca College (N.Y.) Empire Eight Conference 24-13 31st
Salisbury University (Md.) Capital Athletic Conference 32-8 13th
Washington University (Mo.) University Athletic Association 30-9 6th
I think that one Pool B bid will go to Pool A for the Presidents AC. (The Handbook has not been released.)
Right now... I see Chapman, Salisbury as solid Pool Bs.
Piedmont just went ahead of Emory in my opinion due to head-to-head.
Other Pool B's that a Pool C bid include:
St. John Fisher College (N.Y.) Independent 26-11 1st
York College (Pa.) Independent 29-12 10th
Does Emory get a Pool B bid or fall to Pool C?
LC certainly helped itself out with a 5-2 record in a 6 day stretch of games, with wins over VWC, NCWC, and MU. Going into its final 3 games (2 ODAC vs BC, and a regional game with GC), the Hornets now have an in-region record of 20-6.
A.G....Hopefully Mr. Turner and the boys who sit up late at night trying figure this thing out are taken notice. The Hornets open up with two 1 run loses to D2 Limestone and then follow that up with a loss to NCW to start your season at 0-3. Your boys have gone 26-6 since that start. With two wins over 24-7 Alvernia, 2-1 against 23-12-1 Methodist, 1-1 against 24-11-1 NCW they should take notice. Your conference split against 21-12-1 VWC and 19-12 Randy-Mac shouldn't hurt. After all the Yellow Jackets took two from Rowan and just recently beat CNU and VWC handed Salisbury their only loss.
Go ODAC
Great research, H-SC...
...but LC actually SWEPT R-MC. Hopefully the Hornets can play great ball over the next 12 days and take it out of the committee's hands. If not, if they can get to 30-31 wins, that should make a good statement.
I just know that I am a huge CNU fan this week!
ag - personally, i think that ncwc and mu present better cases for pool c consideration than does cnu based on strength of regional schedule...maybe you should root for one of them to win the usasac in case lc stumps their toe in the odac tournament...i'd recommend rooting for the monarchs since lc was 2-1 against them this year (and no other reason, of course :))
Quote from: h-sc bball on April 14, 2008, 09:43:52 PM
A.G....Hopefully Mr. Turner and the boys who sit up late at night trying figure this thing out are taken notice. ...
I am still waiting on the handbook. :-\
Let's see what the regional rankings look like when they are released.
I hope that that will be next Wednesday, the 23th.
to back up my point, i ran some numbers...i'll work on ncwc wednesday night for you
cnu - regional record 15-7 (.682) vs. teams with an overall .511 winning percentage - their 15 wins have come against teams who were .469 and their 7 losses have come against teams who were .603
mu - regional record 18-10-1 (.638) vs. teams with an overall .570 winning percentage - their 18 wins have come against teams who were .545 and their 10 losses have come against teams who were .615 - the one tie was against a team that is 22-9-1 (.703)
i'm not sure how the new formula works, but i would think that the difference in winning percentage could certainly be attributed to a difference in strength of schedule - i suspect (although i haven't run the numbers) that the monarchs would have a higher sosi than cnu (although, my understanding is that sosi is no longer and index used by the committee...am i correct?)
Quote from: narch on April 15, 2008, 11:30:45 PM
to back up my point, i ran some numbers...i'll work on ncwc wednesday night for you
cnu - regional record 15-7 (.682) vs. teams with an overall .511 winning percentage - their 15 wins have come against teams who were .469 and their 7 losses have come against teams who were .603
mu - regional record 18-10-1 (.638) vs. teams with an overall .570 winning percentage - their 18 wins have come against teams who were .545 and their 10 losses have come against teams who were .615 - the one tie was against a team that is 22-9-1 (.703)
i'm not sure how the new formula works, but i would think that the difference in winning percentage could certainly be attributed to a difference in strength of schedule - i suspect (although i haven't run the numbers) that the monarchs would have a higher sosi than cnu (although, my understanding is that sosi is no longer and index used by the committee...am i correct?)
Narch, you have been a night owl lately haven't you. CNU has a good conference record but I think Methodist or Lynchburg are more deserving of an at large.
If it comes down to either MU or LC...how much will the committee look at LC winning the H2H season series?
Quote from: narch on April 15, 2008, 11:30:45 PM
to back up my point, i ran some numbers...i'll work on ncwc wednesday night for you
cnu - regional record 15-7 (.682) vs. teams with an overall .511 winning percentage - their 15 wins have come against teams who were .469 and their 7 losses have come against teams who were .603
mu - regional record 18-10-1 (.638) vs. teams with an overall .570 winning percentage - their 18 wins have come against teams who were .545 and their 10 losses have come against teams who were .615 - the one tie was against a team that is 22-9-1 (.703)
i'm not sure how the new formula works, but i would think that the difference in winning percentage could certainly be attributed to a difference in strength of schedule - i suspect (although i haven't run the numbers) that the monarchs would have a higher sosi than cnu (although, my understanding is that sosi is no longer and index used by the committee...am i correct?)
Narch, didn't have to work all day so I figured I might help you out.
NCWC- regional record 16-10-1, I didn't count the tie (.615). Winning % of combined teams (.558). 16 wins against teams with an overall winning % of .573 and 10 losses against teams with an O/A wnng % of .645. The tie was against a team with a record of 21-12-1.
This is somewhere in the 'hood. Not right but close the % are +/- bout .005
Piedmont is having the best season in their history. Twice this year they had a fabulous week and dropped down one spot in the national poll. How can this be? Overall record of 27-8, just recently took 2 of 3 from Emory University (loss was 6-4), and I believe Emory was the runner-up last year? This definitely has to be a team that does not get any respect. Baseball in the south is the best. Hopefully this team will have the opportunity to prove what it can do when the regionals begin. There should be no way this team doesn't make it to the regional playoffs. Go Lions!
Ron
Welcome, Ron! +1
I have moved this post onto the South Region board so it can draw more comments from the fans in the South Region who are most familiar with Piedmont.
Quote from: alphaomegamission on April 16, 2008, 03:31:27 PM
Piedmont is having the best season in their history. Twice this year they had a fabulous week and dropped down one spot in the national poll. How can this be? Overall record of 27-8, just recently took 2 of 3 from Emory University (loss was 6-4), and I believe Emory was the runner-up last year? This definitely has to be a team that does not get any respect. Baseball in the south is the best. Hopefully this team will have the opportunity to prove what it can do when the regionals begin. There should be no way this team doesn't make it to the regional playoffs. Go Lions!
Ron
Welcome, Ron! +1
I have moved this post onto the South Region board so it can draw more comments from the fans in the South Region who are most familiar with Piedmont.
Narch, has anyone checked out their regional record. I'm willing to bet it is better than Wesleyans. 8-1 vs ODAC (2 wins against VWC), 3-1 vs USAS ( shen. and NCWC). 11-2 right there plus 2-1 against Emory (13-3). If sewanee and centre are in the so. region they would be 24 or 25-5 in the region
In another thread...I think I predicted that Emory and Piedmont should be automatic...along with Salisbury, the ODAC, and USAS winners. A key for anyone wanting an at-large is no upsets in the tourneys.
Quote from: alphaomegamission on April 16, 2008, 03:31:27 PM
Piedmont is having the best season in their history. Twice this year they had a fabulous week and dropped down one spot in the national poll. How can this be? Overall record of 27-8, just recently took 2 of 3 from Emory University (loss was 6-4), and I believe Emory was the runner-up last year? This definitely has to be a team that does not get any respect. Baseball in the south is the best. Hopefully this team will have the opportunity to prove what it can do when the regionals begin. There should be no way this team doesn't make it to the regional playoffs. Go Lions!
Ron
i think you'll find that most who post in the south region boards have a great deal of respect for what coach peeples and the pc staff and players have done...of course, it should be noted that they learned everything they know from tom austin :)
Quote from: narch on April 16, 2008, 10:33:20 PM
Quote from: alphaomegamission on April 16, 2008, 03:31:27 PM
Piedmont is having the best season in their history. Twice this year they had a fabulous week and dropped down one spot in the national poll. How can this be? Overall record of 27-8, just recently took 2 of 3 from Emory University (loss was 6-4), and I believe Emory was the runner-up last year? This definitely has to be a team that does not get any respect. Baseball in the south is the best. Hopefully this team will have the opportunity to prove what it can do when the regionals begin. There should be no way this team doesn't make it to the regional playoffs. Go Lions!
Ron
i think you'll find that most who post in the south region boards have a great deal of respect for what coach peeples and the pc staff and players have done...of course, it should be noted that they learned everything they know from tom austin :)
And some large donations. They have a baseball museum in their gym. It is like a minny cooperstown.
Quote from: NCWC on April 16, 2008, 03:07:21 PM
NCWC- regional record 16-10-1, I didn't count the tie (.615). Winning % of combined teams (.558). 16 wins against teams with an overall winning % of .573 and 10 losses against teams with an O/A wnng % of .645. The tie was against a team with a record of 21-12-1.
This is somewhere in the 'hood. Not right but close the % are +/- bout .005
i've actually got this:
ncwc - regional record 19-9-1 (.672) vs. teams with an overall .518 winning percentage - their 19 wins have come against teams who were .461 and their 9 losses have come against teams who were .637 - the tie was against a team that is 22-12-1 (.643)
working on piedmont...it's a little more difficult - does anyone know if marietta and adrian are considered in-region games for pc...how about depauw? (ralph?)
Quote from: A.G. on April 16, 2008, 09:52:27 AM
If it comes down to either MU or LC...how much will the committee look at LC winning the H2H season series?
in every model that i've ever seen, h2h was a primary consideration
for the heck of it:
lc - regional record 20-6 (.769) vs. teams with an overall .486 winning percentage - their 20 wins come against teams who were .461 and their 6 losses come against teams who were .625
Quote from: narch on April 16, 2008, 11:01:30 PM
Quote from: NCWC on April 16, 2008, 03:07:21 PM
NCWC- regional record 16-10-1, I didn't count the tie (.615). Winning % of combined teams (.558). 16 wins against teams with an overall winning % of .573 and 10 losses against teams with an O/A wnng % of .645. The tie was against a team with a record of 21-12-1.
This is somewhere in the 'hood. Not right but close the % are +/- bout .005
i've actually got this:
ncwc - regional record 19-9-1 (.672) vs. teams with an overall .518 winning percentage - their 19 wins have come against teams who were .461 and their 9 losses have come against teams who were .637 - the tie was against a team that is 22-12-1 (.643)
working on piedmont...it's a little more difficult - does anyone know if marietta and adrian are considered in-region games for pc...how about depauw? (ralph?)
Yes, Marietta and Adrian
are in-region games due to Georgia, Ohio and Michigan being in the same administrative region (Region 3).
Anyone questioning what counts as in-region should follow the FAQ link on the main site and click the NCAA Tournament link from there. All that info is on the bottom of that page.
Quote from: narch on April 16, 2008, 11:01:30 PM
Quote from: NCWC on April 16, 2008, 03:07:21 PM
NCWC- regional record 16-10-1, I didn't count the tie (.615). Winning % of combined teams (.558). 16 wins against teams with an overall winning % of .573 and 10 losses against teams with an O/A wnng % of .645. The tie was against a team with a record of 21-12-1.
This is somewhere in the 'hood. Not right but close the % are +/- bout .005
i've actually got this:
ncwc - regional record 19-9-1 (.672) vs. teams with an overall .518 winning percentage - their 19 wins have come against teams who were .461 and their 9 losses have come against teams who were .637 - the tie was against a team that is 22-12-1 (.643)
working on piedmont...it's a little more difficult - does anyone know if marietta and adrian are considered in-region games for pc...how about depauw? (ralph?)
I'll take that
i've calculated pc's regional record at 25-8 (.757)...i'll go to work on opp winning %'s tonight
I just wanted to add this as a reminder as we get closer to real lively debates:
http://www.d3baseball.com/pressreleases/USAC/2008/01/15/USA-South-to-Co-Host-2008-NCAA-Division-III-Baseball-Regional/2165
Quote(FAYETTEVILLE, N.C.) - The NCAA Division III Baseball Committee, in conjunction with the annual American Baseball Coaches Association Convention, recently announced the eight regional playoff locations for this upcoming season. The USA South Athletic Conference, along with the Old Dominion Athletic Conference, will co-host the South Regional at American Legion Memorial Post 325 Stadium-Dan Daniel Park in Danville, Virginia from Wednesday, May 14 through Saturday, May 17.
and...
QuoteThe 2008 Division III baseball championship will feature 54 teams divided into eight regional tournaments. Of the eight regional tournaments, three will feature eight teams while five will consist of six teams. The team which wins the South Regional will advance to the Division III Baseball Championships in Appleton, Wisconsin on Friday, May 23.
Thus, at least according to this, we will be looking at either 6 or 8 teams. Hopefully, 8 teams from WITHIN the region will be deemed worthy.
Quote from: A.G. on April 17, 2008, 06:16:06 PM
I just wanted to add this as a reminder as we get closer to real lively debates:
http://www.d3baseball.com/pressreleases/USAC/2008/01/15/USA-South-to-Co-Host-2008-NCAA-Division-III-Baseball-Regional/2165
Quote(FAYETTEVILLE, N.C.) - The NCAA Division III Baseball Committee, in conjunction with the annual American Baseball Coaches Association Convention, recently announced the eight regional playoff locations for this upcoming season. The USA South Athletic Conference, along with the Old Dominion Athletic Conference, will co-host the South Regional at American Legion Memorial Post 325 Stadium-Dan Daniel Park in Danville, Virginia from Wednesday, May 14 through Saturday, May 17.
and...
QuoteThe 2008 Division III baseball championship will feature 54 teams divided into eight regional tournaments. Of the eight regional tournaments, three will feature eight teams while five will consist of six teams. The team which wins the South Regional will advance to the Division III Baseball Championships in Appleton, Wisconsin on Friday, May 23.
Thus, at least according to this, we will be looking at either 6 or 8 teams. Hopefully, 8 teams from WITHIN the region will be deemed worthy.
I think the South has a good shot at hosting an eight-teamer. It may come down to either the South or West getting eight, with the other getting six.
In any event, the Central, Mideast and Midwest are almost locks for six-team regionals. So, the South has better than a 50-50 shot at eight teams just based on that.
Quote from: OshDude on April 18, 2008, 12:42:01 AM
Quote from: A.G. on April 17, 2008, 06:16:06 PM
I just wanted to add this as a reminder as we get closer to real lively debates:
http://www.d3baseball.com/pressreleases/USAC/2008/01/15/USA-South-to-Co-Host-2008-NCAA-Division-III-Baseball-Regional/2165
Quote(FAYETTEVILLE, N.C.) - The NCAA Division III Baseball Committee, in conjunction with the annual American Baseball Coaches Association Convention, recently announced the eight regional playoff locations for this upcoming season. The USA South Athletic Conference, along with the Old Dominion Athletic Conference, will co-host the South Regional at American Legion Memorial Post 325 Stadium-Dan Daniel Park in Danville, Virginia from Wednesday, May 14 through Saturday, May 17.
and...
QuoteThe 2008 Division III baseball championship will feature 54 teams divided into eight regional tournaments. Of the eight regional tournaments, three will feature eight teams while five will consist of six teams. The team which wins the South Regional will advance to the Division III Baseball Championships in Appleton, Wisconsin on Friday, May 23.
Thus, at least according to this, we will be looking at either 6 or 8 teams. Hopefully, 8 teams from WITHIN the region will be deemed worthy.
I think the South has a good shot at hosting an eight-teamer. It may come down to either the South or West getting eight, with the other getting six.
In any event, the Central, Mideast and Midwest are almost locks for six-team regionals. So, the South has better than a 50-50 shot at eight teams just based on that.
Is there an advantage to playing a 6 team regional or an 8 team regional? Are the 6 team regionals harder?
Quote from: NCWC on April 18, 2008, 04:38:47 PM
Quote from: OshDude on April 18, 2008, 12:42:01 AM
Quote from: A.G. on April 17, 2008, 06:16:06 PM
I just wanted to add this as a reminder as we get closer to real lively debates:
http://www.d3baseball.com/pressreleases/USAC/2008/01/15/USA-South-to-Co-Host-2008-NCAA-Division-III-Baseball-Regional/2165
Quote(FAYETTEVILLE, N.C.) - The NCAA Division III Baseball Committee, in conjunction with the annual American Baseball Coaches Association Convention, recently announced the eight regional playoff locations for this upcoming season. The USA South Athletic Conference, along with the Old Dominion Athletic Conference, will co-host the South Regional at American Legion Memorial Post 325 Stadium-Dan Daniel Park in Danville, Virginia from Wednesday, May 14 through Saturday, May 17.
and...
QuoteThe 2008 Division III baseball championship will feature 54 teams divided into eight regional tournaments. Of the eight regional tournaments, three will feature eight teams while five will consist of six teams. The team which wins the South Regional will advance to the Division III Baseball Championships in Appleton, Wisconsin on Friday, May 23.
Thus, at least according to this, we will be looking at either 6 or 8 teams. Hopefully, 8 teams from WITHIN the region will be deemed worthy.
I think the South has a good shot at hosting an eight-teamer. It may come down to either the South or West getting eight, with the other getting six.
In any event, the Central, Mideast and Midwest are almost locks for six-team regionals. So, the South has better than a 50-50 shot at eight teams just based on that.
Is there an advantage to playing a 6 team regional or an 8 team regional? Are the 6 team regionals harder?
They both have obvious advantages and disadvantages. In the Midwest the six teams are some combination of Top 25 teams, with Whitewater, Oshkosh, Stevens Point, St. Thomas and the like. So, they're tough considering there are rarely "weaker" teams, but they're also more condensed. In my perhaps geographic-centric way of thinking, my opinion is that the Midwest always has at least four (usually five) legit nationals contenders. That's the give-and-take. It's shorter, but every game is contested. I'm not saying an eight-seed
can't win its opener, but when comparing to the Midwest No. 5 seed to the No. 7 AQ (usually) in another region, I doubt there would be an even comparison.
I wouldn't say 6-teamers are necessarily harder, they just have different inherent negatives.
The NCAA did away with regional allocations of playoff teams.
The 54 teams are considered nationally on regional criteria.
The teams that are playing Danville are likely to be any team that they can bus 500 miles to that location, including the USA South Pool A bid, the ODAC Pool A bid, the Pool B's that come from the south, especially a Piedmont or an Emory, and any Pool C bids.
Ralph...does that mean, then, that the soon-to-be-released regional rankings are basically meaningless in the grand scheme of things?
Quote from: A.G. on April 18, 2008, 06:56:20 PM
Ralph...does that mean, then, that the soon-to-be-released regional rankings are basically meaningless in the grand scheme of things?
The regional rankings are the only meaningful indicator in the grand scheme of things.
Here's how Ralph explained it last year in the Daily Dose. Substitute schools from any region for the ones mentioned as far as being selected.
At the start, all the No. 1-ranked regional teams (after AQ's are taken out of the regional rankings) are pitted against each other for selection. When one is selected, the No. 2 team from the selected team's region is then pitted against the No. 1 teams from all other regions. Maybe the No. 1 from another region is selected second. Then there are two second-ranked teams going against six regional No. 1s for selection. So, there are eight teams from the different regions on the table at one time.
And even though regional allocation is no more, I think it's a rare exception for a team to fly to another region. Technically Pomona could be sent to the Mideast or Chapman to New York or wherever, but it won't happen. Probably. A flight is a flight, but I doubt Chapman and Wooster (or another team not in the West) will play each other in regionals, even though they could according to the rules.
Ralph from 2007:
"Montclair will be evaluated by the committee in the primary criteria from the games in the Mid-Atlantic Region. The local region will send its list of teams, in descending order, with the Mid-Atlantic Region rep to the National Committee. Then, the National Selection committee will work off the 8 lists to determine the best team on the table for each of the 14 rounds.
Unless something major happens this weekend, I see the committee looking at Kean first, then Ramapo next. Until those 2 teams are seeded, then Alvernia, Arcadia and everyone list deeper in the queue, including Montclair State, are waiting thru all 14 rounds of the Pool C selection process.
After the 53 teams are seeded, then the green-eyeshade folks (have the younger readers ever heard of that figure of speech for a number-cruncher) will seed the brackets.
I hope that clarifies the process."
Thanks, OshDude...
...LC helped its case with a DH sweep of Bridgewater, a team which was 25-13-1 (with quality wins over UMW, NCWC, CNU and VWC) going into the day. LC improved its overall record to 28-9 (22-6 in the region).
A.G., 22-6 is somewhere in the realm of being regionally ranked.
Here are the regional rankings from the first week of 2007.
2007 Daily Dose on Regional Rankings. Please click here and scroll to the bottom. (http://www.d3sports.com/dailydose/category/ncaa/regional-rankings/)
22-6 is competitive.
As I have compared the Pool C at large selections in baseball, it is not like football where a Pool B never gets a Pool C bid, or basketball where we refer to the Pool B contenders as the "Bumblin' B's", the Pool B teams are tough, e.g., Emory, Wash StL, Salisbury, Chapman, St Scholastica, Cal State East Bay, etc.
Any Pool B team that is left over after the Pool B bids have been awarded goes into Pool C.
I am learning...trying to figure all this out...and appreciate all the information. Of course...the best thing to do is to keep winning through the tournament. I am certainly looking forward to seeing the rankings when they come out this week.
Some nice regional representation in the ABCA Poll:
http://www.muhlberg.edu/sports/abcapoll42208.pdf
Salisbury 5
Piedmont 11
Lynchburg 20
CNU 26
Emory 29
Rhodes also receiving votes
The Hornets fall to Pool C consideration, with R-MC's win in the ODAC tournament. That puts R-MC, CNU, in from Pool A, and you'd have to figure Salisbury is a B lock, as well as possibly Piedmont (with Piedmont certainly "C" worthy). That will leave the rest fighting it out for two slots. Hopefuly LC has done enough (and great comments from Dixon and Turner).
http://www.d3sports.com/dailydose/2008/04/24/regional-rankings#comment-1223
What are the chances of Greensboro College making a regional? I think they are 24-9 in the South region and they are supposedly adding 3 games against a quality Rhodes team. If they somehow pull off a sweep and finish 27-9 in the region, do they have a shot at an at-large bid?
Quote from: averetthomer on April 28, 2008, 09:09:54 PM
What are the chances of Greensboro College making a regional? I think they are 24-9 in the South region and they are supposedly adding 3 games against a quality Rhodes team. If they somehow pull off a sweep and finish 27-9 in the region, do they have a shot at an at-large bid?
i've got gc at 22-11 in region, and the strength of schedule just isn't there, in my opinion, to get them in - i think ncwc is the only usasac with a legit shot at a pool c - mu is an EXTREME LONGSHOT with a sweep of piedmont...
NCWC also has two key games coming up against a suddenly hot UMW team that has implications for both teams.
If MC gets swept and GC sweeps Rhodes....does GC become that longshot Narch?
The new regional rankings are out:
http://www.ncaa.com/baseball/default.aspx?id=212508
No change in the top 3...
South Region
Rank Team Overall In-Region
1 Salisbury 37-2 33-2
2 Piedmont 33-10 31-10
3 Lynchburg 30-11 24-8
4 Emory 25-11-1 23-9-1
5 Millsaps 29-18 27-14
6 Mary Washington 25-12 22-11
unofficially, i've got the following regional records for what i consider "bubble teams" from the south region (i think lc and piedmont are locks...and probably emory, too):
rhodes: 24-14 (if rust is still d3 & denison is in-region)
mary wash: 23-13
methodist: 23-13-1
ncwc: 22-12-1
i haven't calculated opponents winning percentage each team, and i'm not about to calculate opponents/opponents winning percentage...do any of these teams have a shot? i'm not sure they do...
Yes, narch, Rust is D-III and Denison is Administrative Region #3, in-region.
We need to see if Denison makes the Mideast Regional Rankings this week.
I think that the threshold for in-region results (won loss percentage will be .667) unless the OWP/OOWP's are .550 or better, and some team has an in-region results versus Ranked teams is 12-8.
The new regional rankings are out..
http://www.ncaa.com/baseball/default.aspx?id=212508
1 Salisbury 38-2 34-2
2 Lynchburg 30-11 24-8
3 Piedmont 33-12 31-12
4 Emory 25-11-1 23-9-1
5 Christopher Newport 28-12 21-11
6 Methodist 28-15-1 22-12-1
Let the speculatin' and arguin' begin! Will the committee go with this...or will they perhaps ship a team like Hopkins down to Danville and add R-MC (ODAC Pool A) AND Methodist for a nice 8-team regional? What do ya'll think?
I am new to this regional ranking stuff, but how do you justify MU making regionals ahead of NCWC? I guess conf. standings do not matter. Conf. tournament does not matter and head to head does not matter. (Seems like a flawed system)
I DEF AGREE....HOW IS MU AHEAD OF NCWC??....NCWC HAS TO BE THE FAVORITE TEAM TO GET AT AT LARGE BID FOR THE SOUTH REGION!!
Quote from: A.G. on May 08, 2008, 03:35:56 PM
The new regional rankings are out..
http://www.ncaa.com/baseball/default.aspx?id=212508
1 Salisbury 38-2 34-2
2 Lynchburg 30-11 24-8
3 Piedmont 33-12 31-12
4 Emory 25-11-1 23-9-1
5 Christopher Newport 28-12 21-11
6 Methodist 28-15-1 22-12-1 (.643)
Let the speculatin' and arguin' begin! Will the committee go with this...or will they perhaps ship a team like Hopkins down to Danville and add R-MC (ODAC Pool A) AND Methodist for a nice 8-team regional? What do ya'll think?
NCWC has an in-region record of 23-13-1 (.635). NCWC is 3-5 against the other regionally ranked teams. Methodist is 5-4-1 vs. the other regionally ranked teams.
NCWC was 2-1 versus Methodist, so I think that NCWC's OWP and OOWP is lower than Methodist's.
WHAT IS MU's STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE LIKE??...UNDERSTANDABLY THE RECORDS OF NCWC AND MU ARE ALMOST IDENTICAL, BUT I WOULD BE INTERESTED IN KNOWING JUST HOW HARD MU's AND NCWC's REGION SCHEDULE WAS!!...EITHER WAY I BELIEVE THAT BOTH SHOULD HAVE A LEGITIMATE SHOT TO GET IN!!
Quote from: killerdude on May 08, 2008, 10:14:32 PM
WHAT IS MU's STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE LIKE??...UNDERSTANDABLY THE RECORDS OF NCWC AND MU ARE ALMOST IDENTICAL, BUT I WOULD BE INTERESTED IN KNOWING JUST HOW HARD MU's AND NCWC's REGION SCHEDULE WAS!!...EITHER WAY I BELIEVE THAT BOTH SHOULD HAVE A LEGITIMATE SHOT TO GET IN!!
killerdude...turn off the caps...no need to shout :)
here is my post from the usasac board:
Quote from: NCWC on May 08, 2008, 05:09:44 PM
How does Methodist have the heads up on NCWC?
i'd be willing to bet it's strength of schedule, since both have similar regional records - i've got mu at 23-13-1 and ncwc at 23-12-1 in region, but i've got mu's owp at .558 and ncwc's owp at .538...that's a significant difference - the ncaa has a tradition of rewarding teams that schedule strong...when you schedule 3 games against emu (10-30), 2 against capital (10-26-1) and then a historically strong team like york drops off significantly (14-27), you run the risk of having it bite you on the back-side during the regional ranking process - additionally, mu is 5-5-1 vs. teams that are ranked ahead of them (pc, lc, emory and cnu) while ncwc is just 3-5 against pc, lc and cnu (they didn't play emory) - that being said, i bet there isn't much space between the monarchs and bishops in these rankings...maybe the proverbial hair - here is a reminder of the criteria used to rank:
These are the primary criteria that are used to rank the Pool C teams:
• Win-loss percentage against regional opponents
• Quality of Wins Index: only contests versus regional competition - i'm about 95% certain this has been replaced by owp and oowp
• In- region head-to-head competition.
• In-region results vs. common regional opponents.
• In-region results vs. regionally ranked teams
• Ranked opponents are defined as those teams ranked at the time of the ranking/selection process only.
• Conference post-season contests are included.
• Contests versus provisional members in their third and fourth years shall count in the primary criteria. Provisional members shall remain ineligible for rankings and selection.
keep in mind that the committee also has access to information that i don't have time to calculate, and that's the oowp...who knows what, if any, differential there is between mu and ncwc with that important factor
Quote from: killerdude on May 08, 2008, 09:44:35 PMNCWC HAS TO BE THE FAVORITE TEAM TO GET AT AT LARGE BID FOR THE SOUTH REGION!!
i would disagree...since neither team has any games left, and few (if any) of their regional opponents are still playing, it would be difficult for ncwc to jump the monarchs...regional rankings are used as a basis for selection, meaning that if the bishops got in, the monarchs would, too - i hope i'm wrong, but i don't see the usasac getting 2 pool c's this year...to be honest, i'm not sure the usasac even gets one pool c (although i'm hoping like crazy the monarchs have a chance to continue their season)
Good stuff NARCH (I guess i was right when I said that Conf season,Cong tourn, and Head to Head does not matter) Thanks for the info. (good luck if MU makes it)
+1 narch! :)
Thanks for the research. Jim Dixon and I are trying to compile the data to predict the Pool B and C teams. You have done a great job of explaining what data the committee probably has to put Methodist over NCWC.
You are correct that the OWP/OOWP has replaced the QOWI. York's having an off-season was tough! You don't anticipate a Pool C team dropping below .350 the next year.
Wood, conference games (tourney or regular season and head-to-head) are rolled in the in-region criteria.
Thanks Ralph. As someone new to this process it just did not seem possible for a team that finished behind NCWC in conf.,conf tour., and head to head to be considered first. ( I now understand that selection criteria comes first which leaves NCWC out. ) I would hate to be the guy to explain this stuff to the players.
Suggestion.
Maybe a new selection criteria needs to be added that does not allow this to happen.
Quote from: Wood on May 09, 2008, 08:29:48 AM
Suggestion.
Maybe a new selection criteria needs to be added that does not allow this to happen.
Wood, these selection criteria are essentially the same for all team sports, football baseball, basketball, soccer, etc.
I guess that the regional committee thought that the OWP/OOWP gave enough weight to boost MU over NCWC.
Ralph thanks for the info. The more I read the more I understand . From my limited knowledge it looks like the only way NCWC makes the regionals is if the south gets eight teams and then MU and NCWC both make it. (Seems very unlikely)
PS I still think that conf. play should be more of a factor in the rankings when considering two teams from the same conference.
Quote from: Ralph Turner on May 08, 2008, 10:03:28 PM
Quote from: A.G. on May 08, 2008, 03:35:56 PM
The new regional rankings are out..
http://www.ncaa.com/baseball/default.aspx?id=212508
1 Salisbury 38-2 34-2
2 Lynchburg 30-11 24-8
3 Piedmont 33-12 31-12
4 Emory 25-11-1 23-9-1
5 Christopher Newport 28-12 21-11
6 Methodist 28-15-1 22-12-1 (.643)
Let the speculatin' and arguin' begin! Will the committee go with this...or will they perhaps ship a team like Hopkins down to Danville and add R-MC (ODAC Pool A) AND Methodist for a nice 8-team regional? What do ya'll think?
NCWC has an in-region record of 23-13-1 (.635). NCWC is 3-5 against the other regionally ranked teams. Methodist is 5-4-1 vs. the other regionally ranked teams.
NCWC was 2-1 versus Methodist, so I think that NCWC's OWP and OOWP is lower than Methodist's.
CNU played NCWC 4 times.
Quote from: Wood on May 09, 2008, 11:38:25 AM
Ralph thanks for the info. The more I read the more I understand . From my limited knowledge it looks like the only way NCWC makes the regionals is if the south gets eight teams and then MU and NCWC both make it. (Seems very unlikely)
PS I still think that conf. play should be more of a factor in the rankings when considering two teams from the same conference.
exactly
Quote from: NCWC on May 09, 2008, 12:10:29 PMCNU played NCWC 4 times.
and they played methodist 4 times, as well...they went 3-1 vs. ncwc and 2-2 vs. the monarchs...
Quote from: narch on May 09, 2008, 05:29:29 PM
Quote from: NCWC on May 09, 2008, 12:10:29 PMCNU played NCWC 4 times.
and they played methodist 4 times, as well...they went 3-1 vs. ncwc and 2-2 vs. the monarchs...
and Methodist finished fourth and also went home before NCWC in the tournament.
Quote from: NCWC on May 09, 2008, 06:05:40 PM
Quote from: narch on May 09, 2008, 05:29:29 PM
Quote from: NCWC on May 09, 2008, 12:10:29 PMCNU played NCWC 4 times.
and they played methodist 4 times, as well...they went 3-1 vs. ncwc and 2-2 vs. the monarchs...
and Methodist finished fourth and also went home before NCWC in the tournament.
and mu played a much more difficult non conference schedule than the bishops...while ncwc was playing 3 games with emu, the monarchs played emory twice and a played a third game against lynchburg
we could go back and forth like this all night long...
(https://www.d3boards.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fflamefans.com%2Fforums%2Fimages%2Fsmiles%2Fpopcorn.gif&hash=d3535c90665723117393353e36f6b2d4a5585062)
What are everybody's thoughts on the ODAC? Does Lynchburg have a chance to make a run deep in the NCAA tournament?
I think three, maybe four ODAC teams have a legit shot at going deep into the regionals this year: VWC, R-MC, LC, and BC. The first three probably have the pitching depth to go the farthest...and any ODAC team is going to have beat up on the USASC teams during the mid-week games...for as we saw last year...anything can happen in the ODAC tournament.
Appreciate your thoughts A.G.....yeah the ODAC and USA South seem to play nearly ever midweek. Should be some interesting series. I noticed Lynchburg opens up down here at Greensboro. I guess we'll see how good they are real quick.
Well, a week from tomorrow the season starts...what early matchups are you guys looking forward to?
Not to discount the usual ODAC-USASAC match-ups, there are some really intriguing early season regional match-ups featuring ODAC teams.
Salisbury at VWC will be a biggieon opening weekend. The following weekend will feature LC traveling to CNU and the ODAC/USASAC Challenge in Greensboro has several "marquee" games, most notable maybe NCWC and R-MC.
I'm really looking forward to the USA South/ODAC challenge myself. Good to have teams from two very competitive conferences battling early. Somebody can get those bragging rights early. Luckily, all the games are around Greensboro, so I'll probably make a few. The heated Guilford-Greensboro match-up is one to watch. The Quakers aren't too happy about a former player ditching them for the Pride. You just don't do that!!!
From what I have heard from both sides the Greensboro-Guilford rivalry is not very heated. I realize that one of the players did switch sides but Guilford just does not seem to be at the level that Greensboro is. Do not get me wrong, Guilford is up and coming, but giving up 40 runs in 2 games does not show me that they are quite there yet as a unit.
Hopefully our pitching staff gets it going soon. Maybe Hart's performance against GC will give the staff a little confidence going into this weekend. He completely dominated that "feared" team.
I wouldn't say dominated by any means; however, he did keep our bats under control. It was def. a pitching duel and a good one at that.
I mean Hart isn't a strike out pitcher, but he kept Greensboro's hitters off balanced all game. Reminded me of a Jamie Moyer performance. Well, a few years back at least :D
Think we are far enough along to go ahead and start this thread. Went ahead and did some research. Please note I only included 10 schools. I would have like to included more teams but I got tired and didn't have the energy to go 14 or 15 teams deep. Please feel free to check my numbers are correct.
The first thing I did was take the combined opponents wins and losses to basically get an idea of strength of schedule and ranked them accordingly.
1.) Virginia Wes- 129-81 .614 opp. win %
2.) Emory- 171-120 .588 opp. win %
3.) Rhodes- 168-129 .566 opp. win %
4.) CNU- 133-106 .556 opp. win %
5.) Salisbury- 108-88 .551 opp. win %
6.) Shenandoah-135-112 .547 opp. win %
7.) Millsaps- 146-129 .531 opp. win %
8.) Methodist- 159-148 .518 opp. win %
9.) York- 113-113 .500 opp. win %
10.) Lynchburg- 149-155 .490 opp. win %
Records vs. opp. w/records of .500 or better
1.) Millsaps- 13-0 1.000
2.) York- 7-1 .875
3.) Salisbury- 11-3 .786
4.) CNU- 9-3-1 .731
5.) Shenandoah 10-4 .714
6.) Emory 8-5 .615
Virginia Wes. 8-5 .615
8.) Methodist 7-6 .538
9.) Rhodes- 10-10 .500
10.) Lynchburg- 2-4 .333
In-Region Records
York- 13-0 1.000
Millsaps- 21-3 .875
Shenandoah- 14-3 .815
Salisbury- 12-3 .800
CNU- 10-4 .714
Methodist- 8-5 .615
Lynchburg- 8-5 .615
Emory- 9-6 .600
Rhodes- 12-8 .600
Virginia Wes.- 6-6 .500
Once again this was all done in fun and not so much by the book. If I had to go ahead and rank the Top 8 in the South as of today....
1.)Millsaps -body of work justifies it.....region too deep to avoid slip ups
2.)York -beat Salisbury and haven't lost a region game...schedule not all that
tough though.....will need to prove it belongs
3.)CNU - splitting conference weekends good but not good enough...schedule
lightens up before big weekend with Methodist
4.)Salisbury -not a big fan of their scheduling...but they win and its usually enough
to get them in a regional...perfect DIII baseball location...far enough
north to not play solid South region teams and close enough for the Mid-
Atlantic teams to step outside for the 1st time and try to compete
5.)Shenandoah -would be higher w/ better effort against Methodist...@ Wash. Lee,
@ Lynchburg and series vs. NCW will tell the tale
6.)Emory -solid start to season but nothing that opens your eyes
7.)Methodist -2 wins over Shenandoah are nice...win over LC but loss to VW
Wesleyan and 2 L's to NC Wesleyan not so nice
8.)Rhodes -8 losses in region all ready....but probably have one of the toughest
schedules to date...20 games vs. quality opp....will need to pile on
wins in conference play to be in serious consideration....Lynchburg
and Virginia Wesleyan could be in this spot as well
Cool. As a heads-up, I only looked at Millsaps and noticed two teams on its sked are not in-region – Belhaven and IL Wesleyan. That would put 'em at 20-3 in-region. Please keep doing the numbers. +1
Saw Rhodes take 2 of 3 last weekend at home over Centre. They have a nice team with decent blend of players. They love to run the bases.
South Region Top teams out of 100 -- Iterative Strength Ratings
Last updated: Sat Apr 4 08:51:07 2009
Note: Strength of schedule rank is for games to date. Only teams who have played at least ten NCAA Division III games are listed. Score data is taken from the official NCAA site, which means that there are quite a few errors in here; corrections are welcomed, although the quickest path is to get the SID to correct the official data. Ratings are updated daily around 8:30 Central Time.
http://www.boydsworld.com/baseball/isr/d3_isr.html
D3 Overall
Rank Rating W L W L SoS Team
02 131.4 19 3 27 3 9 Millsaps
20 119.0 16 2 21 4 106 Salisbury
21 118.7 16 3 22 4 88 Shenandoah
26 117.2 12 4 14 4 50 Christopher Newport
36 114.0 19 7 19 7 75 Methodist
41 113.3 16 5 17 6 99 Birmingham-Southern
51 111.3 14 7 16 8 66 Virginia Wesleyan
52 111.0 14 9 14 10 44 Piedmont
57 109.9 16 9 16 11 68 North Carolina Wesleyan
61 108.9 13 10 20 11 41 Rhodes
63 108.2 12 4 15 7 154 Guilford
71 106.7 10 5 16 8 128 Oglethorpe
74 105.5 11 10 18 11 52 Emory
78 104.6 16 8 16 8 146 Lynchburg
80 104.3 10 5 11 9 149 Mary Washington
89 103.2 11 10 13 10 82 Huntingdon
95 102.2 8 4 13 5 170 Washington and Lee
97 101.6 8 7 10 12 103 Catholic
What are the ISR's?
The ISR's are the results of an algorithm designed to measure the quality of a team's season to date by combining their winning percentage with the difficulty of their schedule. The algorithm computes all teams simultaneously and attempts to take advantage of inter-regional games more accurately than other rating systems.
How are the ISR's computed?
The basic idea is an iterative one. Begin with all teams set to an even rating -- 100 in this case. Then, for each game played, give each team the value of their opponent's rating plus or minus a factor for winning or losing the game -- 25 in this case. Total all of a team's results, divide by the number of games played, and that's the end of a cycle. Then use those numbers as the start of the next cycle until you get the same results for each team for two consecutive cycles.
Why are the ISR's needed?
While it's still a great game, college baseball suffers from the lack of an accurate rating system for measuring team quality. The traditional polls suffer from voters running on auto-pilot, and the RPI's used by the selection committee have some serious problems with the method used to determine strength of schedule. Because of the small amount of inter-regional play in the sport, some regions tend to be under-represented in the NCAA tournament, and mid-rank large conference teams tend to be unfairly excluded. Although trying to get the selection committee to acknowledge this may be a hopeless case, the ISR's are an attempt to find a better rating system.
Update Regional Statistics as of 4/7
Being this far along in the season, I went ahead and soley focused on in-region contests only. Once again, I did my best to double check out of region vs. in-region contests...but if there is one I missed please feel free to speak up.
As for in-region Strength of Schedule....calculated are opponents winning percentages. If they played an opponent more than once then it was factored in that way.
1.) Virginia Wesleyan 301-208 .591 opp. win %
2.) Huntingdon 271-216 .556 opp. win %
3.) Rhodes 394-320 .552 opp. win %
4.) Christopher New. 278-232 .545 opp. win %
5.) Methodist 293-248 .542 opp. win %
5.) Shenendoah 332-280 .542 opp. win %
7.) Emory 353-306 .536 opp. win %
8.) York 332-293 .531 opp. win %
9.) Salisbury 293-286 .506 opp. win %
10.) Lynchburg 283-277 .505 opp. win %
11.) Millsaps 407-441 .480 opp. win %
In-Region Records
1.) Millsaps 24-4 .857
2.) Shenendoah 20-4 .833
3.) Salisbury 19-4 .826
4.) York 17-6 .739
5.) Methodist 14-6 .700
6.) Christopher New. 12-6 .667
7.) Lynchburg 13-8 .619
8.) Huntingdon 11-7 .611
9.) Emory 14-9 .609
10.) Rhodes 17-11 .607
11.) Virginia Wesleyan 10-9 .526
My South Region Rankings
1.) Millsaps -haven't done anything to leave this spot, certainly have earned it
but with their S.O.S. being what it is....are they battle tested enough
to win a NCAA Regional? SCAC tourney may provide answers
2.) Shenandoah -slightly ahead of Salisbury in my mind......not the most challenging of
schedules the rest of the way....important series w/ NCW....rematch w/
Methodist in the USAC Tourney would be fun to watch
3.) Salisbury -sent a message to York in their revenge game although York didn't
back down in the second tilt...certainly no lock to win CAC Tourney but
definitently the favorites....pretty much a lock Pool B bid barring a
disaster
4.) Methodist - tough 4 game stretch vs. a pesky Ferrum squad and solid Christopher
Newport club....still have games w/ Emory and Piedmont...nice season
so far but will have to keep playing well to stay where they are
5.) York -rebounded from tough series w/ Salisbury to win 3 out of their next 4
still have work to do with Stevenson and Mary Wash left before CAC
Tourney...not to mention post CAC Tourney tilts w/ Hopkins, Newport,
and NC Wesleyan.....will show how good they are.....or not
6.) Chris. Newport -only 2-2 in their last 4....enough to drop them down...Methodist
looms ahead this weekend....will get better idea of where they are at
yes Lynchburg beat them head to head...but CNU's schedule is a
little stronger and in my mind the USAC is slightly better than ODAC
Rest of the rest: Lynchburg, Emory, Rhodes, Huntingdon
Very cool again, Pauperboy. In figuring OWP, did you subtract the team's results from the equation? Put simpler, if you're figuring Millsap's OWP, don't factor in the games Millsaps played against its opponents. And of course use only in-region games for the opponents' records. Just wanna make sure you're doing it correctly.
Please keep doing it!
For what it's worth ...
D3 South Region teams in Top 100 -- Iterative Strength Ratings
http://www.boydsworld.com/baseball/isr/d3_isr.html
Last updated: Tue Apr 7 08:51:51 2009
Note: Strength of schedule rank is for games to date. Only teams who have played at least ten NCAA Division III games are listed. Score data is taken from the official NCAA site, which means that there are quite a few errors in here; corrections are welcomed, although the quickest path is to get the SID to correct the official data. Ratings are updated daily around 8:30 Central Time.
D3 Overall
Rank Rating W L W L SoS Team
2 130.8 19 3 27 3 13 Millsaps
21 118.2 16 2 21 4 128 Salisbury
23 118.0 18 4 24 5 89 Shenandoah
35 115.8 21 7 22 8 72 Methodist
36 115.7 13 5 15 6 54 Christopher Newport
46 112.7 16 5 17 6 117 Birmingham-Southern
50 111.9 14 7 16 8 66 Virginia Wesleyan
58 110.4 15 11 15 12 35 Piedmont
65 109.0 13 10 20 11 41 Rhodes
71 107.8 10 5 16 9 119 Oglethorpe
72 107.7 17 11 17 14 85 North Carolina Wesleyan
73 107.4 13 11 20 13 46 Emory
77 105.9 16 8 16 8 140 Lynchburg
79 105.6 12 6 15 9 150 Guilford
90 104.2 10 5 11 9 164 Mary Washington
York, PA must NOT be reporting to NCAA? Boyd pulls data from http://www.ncaa.org/stats/ which appears to be updated on Tuesdays.
South Region team's in Top 150 of Boyd's Iterative Strength Ratings
http://www.boydsworld.com/baseball/isr/d3_isr.html
Last updated: Thu Apr 9 08:52:14 2009
Note: Strength of schedule rank is for games to date. Only teams who have played at least ten NCAA Division III games are listed. Score data is taken from the official NCAA site, which means that there are quite a few errors in here; corrections are welcomed, although the quickest path is to get the SID to correct the official data. Ratings are updated daily around 8:30 Central Time.
D3 Overall
Rank Rating W L W L SoS Team
1 131.0 19 3 29 4 13 Millsaps
16 119.7 18 4 24 5 67 Shenandoah
24 117.5 21 2 26 4 169 Salisbury
29 116.7 13 5 15 6 46 Christopher Newport
35 116.2 21 7 22 8 69 Methodist
49 114.4 18 6 19 7 96 Birmingham-Southern
62 110.8 15 11 22 12 39 Rhodes
65 110.2 15 9 17 10 64 Virginia Wesleyan
66 109.9 15 12 15 13 38 Piedmont
68 108.8 17 11 17 14 79 North Carolina Wesleyan
69 108.7 19 10 19 10 108 Lynchburg
71 108.3 13 11 20 13 44 Emory
82 106.1 12 6 13 10 153 Mary Washington
105 102.8 9 6 14 7 155 Washington and Lee
110 102.3 13 8 16 11 180 Guilford
120 101.1 10 9 11 11 129 Ferrum
130 100.2 9 9 14 14 121 Catholic
148 97.0 9 12 12 15 116 Randolph-Macon
149 96.8 8 14 12 16 76 Greensboro
NCAA Division III Baseball -- South Region - Iterative Strength Ratings
*Of the teams reporting to NCAA*
Last updated: Tue Apr 14 08:52:04 2009
Note: Strength of schedule rank is for games to date. Only teams who have played at least ten NCAA Division III games are listed. Score data is taken from the official NCAA site, which means that there are quite a few errors in here; corrections are welcomed, although the quickest path is to get the SID to correct the official data. Ratings are updated daily around 8:30 Central Time.
http://www.boydsworld.com/baseball/isr/d3_isr.html
D3 Overall
Rank Rating W L W L SoS Team
1 130.3 23 3 33 4 13 Millsaps
18 119.2 20 5 28 6 66 Shenandoah
23 117.8 24 2 29 4 183 Salisbury
24 117.5 16 6 18 7 42 Christopher Newport
32 116.6 23 9 24 10 51 Methodist
37 115.9 19 6 20 7 92 Birmingham-Southern
55 112.0 20 12 20 15 47 North Carolina Wesleyan
57 111.8 15 11 22 12 34 Rhodes
62 110.8 15 9 17 10 63 Virginia Wesleyan
65 110.2 15 13 16 16 31 Piedmont
66 110.2 20 10 20 10 103 Lynchburg
77 108.4 14 14 21 16 32 Emory
78 108.2 12 8 18 12 88 Oglethorpe
84 107.0 13 6 14 13 167 Mary Washington
100 104.2 12 12 19 13 67 Huntingdon
106 103.4 11 10 12 13 100 Ferrum
107 103.4 9 6 14 7 158 Washington and Lee
108 103.4 13 8 16 12 171 Guilford
137 99.8 10 16 15 18 52 Greensboro
149 97.4 9 13 12 16 102 Randolph-Macon
159 96.4 11 14 14 15 137 Hampden-Sydney
168 95.4 9 12 14 18 144 Catholic
175 93.9 11 21 13 22 105 Averett
185 91.7 6 16 9 18 89 Eastern Mennonite
187 91.2 8 17 14 18 124 Stevenson
190 90.9 4 9 6 15 119 Centre
196 90.0 5 12 8 15 122 Roanoke
220 85.3 4 12 5 20 166 Emory and Henry
http://www.boydsworld.com/baseball/isr/d3_isr.html
I posted this on a reply on the "National topics board, under Multiple Conferences bids".
he other USA-South "at-large" contenders breakdown : these numbers are NOT official by any means as I tried to figure out some stuff so far ... please anyone be more than happy to verify these numbers.
As of today, April 21st @ 12:40pm, is very much "UNOFFICIAL" ...
Shenandoah University :
25-7 "in-region" .781% (corrected, I missed a game, I previously had 24 wins)
0-2 vs. MU
1-1 vs. CNU
2-0 vs. AV
2-1 vs. FC (corrected, I missed the tourney game)
1-0 vs. GC
2-3 vs. NCW
=========
8-7 vs. USA-South overall (corrected)
8-5 vs. USA-South excluding "head to head" vs. MU (corrected)
7-6 vs. USA-South excluding "head to head" vs. CNU (corrected)
(.722%) 13-5 vs. MU common "in-region" opponents excluding "head to head"
(.666%) 12-6 vs. CNU common "in-region" opponents excluding "head to head"
Shenandoah's "in-region" opponents OWP = 332-276-5 (.5415986%)
I did not include the games with SU and it was their opponents "overall" record.
Methodist University :
16-10 "in-region" .615% (correction, included Albertus Magnus College 2wins by mistake)
2-0 vs. SU
1-2 vs. CNU
2-0 vs. GC
0-2 vs. NCW
0-1 vs. AV
1-1 vs. FC
=========
6-6 vs. USA-South overall
4-6 vs. USA-South excluding "head to head" vs. SU
5-4 vs. USA-South excluding "head to head" vs. CNU
(.500%) 7-7 vs. SU common "in-region" opponents excluding "head to head"
(.600%) 9-6 vs. CNU common "in-region" opponents excluding "head to head"
MU's "in-region" opponents OWP = 249-210-3 (.538961%)
I did not include the games with MU and it was their opponents "overall" record.
Christopher Newport University :
17-9 "in-region" .653%
1-1 vs. SU
2-1 vs. MU
1-2 vs. NCW
2-1 vs. AV
0-1 vs. FC
1-1 vs. GC
=========
7-7 vs. USA-South overall
6-6 vs. USA-South excluding "head to head" vs. SU
5-6 vs. USA-South excluding "head to head" vs. MU
(.555%) 10-8 vs. SU common "in-region" opponents excluding "head to head"
(.529%) 9-8 vs. MU common "in-region" opponents excluding "head to head"
CNU's "in-region" opponents OWP = 238-191-2 (.5522051%)
I did not include the games with CNU and it was their opponents "overall" record.
Not sure how much "tighter" you can get than that?
By no means am I stating these numbers are 100% accurate, I already discovered a mistake MU's "in-region" record that I included 2wins. I would not be surprised IF they might be an error here or there.
You have done some good work...and we will get a little better (although unofficial) idea of how the teams stack up when the regional rankings are released sometime in the near future.
Quote from: A.G. on April 20, 2009, 08:35:28 PM
You have done some good work...and we will get a little better (although unofficial) idea of how the teams stack up when the regional rankings are released sometime in the near future.
...on Thursday.
IF a USAS team gets an at-large bid:
With the possibility of millsaps being sent to another region can the other usas at large be sent to another region? Or would that definitely mean they usas at large would be in the south region at salisbury?
Any shots at an all region team?
I'll take a final crack at this before the official rankings come out. I'm gonna also take a stab at how the Salisbury Regional will look in a few weeks. It's great to see Milby provide those numbers. As much as I would love to be official and exact with regards to OWP and OOWP, they don't pay me enough to sift through all that data for this amount of teams. I think you'll find my numbers comparable to those already mentioned anyway.
Opponent's Win Percentage **ONLY REGIONAL GAMES INCLUDED**
1.) North Carolina Wesleyan .608 opp. win %
2.) Emory .577 opp. win %
3.) Huntingdon .565 opp. win %
4.) Christopher Newport .557 opp. win %
5.) Methodist .555 opp. win %
6.) Shenandoah .550 opp. win %
7.) York .542 opp. win %
8.) Virginia Wesleyan .535 opp. win %
9.) Salisbury .512 opp. win %
10.) Rhodes .507 opp. win %
11.) Millsaps .504 opp. win %
12.) Lynchburg .502 opp. win %
In-Region Records
1.) Salisbury 26-5 .839
2.) Millsaps 30-6 .833
3.) Shenandoah 25-7 .781
4.) York 24-9 .727
5.) Lynchburg 19-10 .655
6.) CNU 17-9 .654
7.) Rhodes 20-11 .645
8.) Methodist 16-10 .615
9.) NCW 21-14 .600
10.) Huntingdon 14-10 .583
11.) VW 15-11 .577
12.) Emory 17-14 .548
If I were guessing as to what the first regional ranking will look like, this is it....
1.) Millsaps -looking forward to the Millsaps Invitational, I'm sorry I mean the SCAC
Conference Tournament. It their's to lose but they will have to earn it.
DePauw actually has an easy road if they take advantage of it. Millsaps
vs. Rhodes on Day 2 could be interesting matchup.
2.) Salisbury - spotted Stevenson 5 runs in CAC Finals and still won by 11. If they are
lucky Millsaps gets shipped out of the South and a regional on their
home turf equals easy road to Appleton, WI.
3.) Shenandoah - was disappointed with the result of the USA South Conference
Tourney. Didn't do anything to silence their critics....but I am not one of
them. I think they are in. No doubt. But as history tells us (Rhodes 2007
and UT-Tyler 2008) nothing is for sure.
4.) York - The reality is there isn't much quality across the country in the Pool B
department. Combine that with a decent record and they should get in.
5.) Lynchburg - Will probably need to win ODAC Tourney to get in regional. Numbers
probably not good enough to get a Pool C bid.
6a.) CNU
6b.) Methodist -take your pick. Too close to call. Probably won't matter anyway. Need
6c.) Rhodes alot of things to go their way to get a bid. Rhodes takes their shot in
the SCAC this week.
As for how the regional would be set up....the biggest discussion is what is going to happen with Millsaps. Some seem to think that they are destined to be shipped out of the South and into the Central or even Mid-East. I don't see how that makes sense.
Jackson, MS to Salisbury, MD about 1,100 mi.
to Adrian, MI (Mid-East) about 905 mi.
to Rock Island, IL (Central) about 760 mi.
I could see if the other options were somewhere in the 500 mi. range, it would make sense to ship them out. Is 400 mi. that big of a difference to send a team out of its region??? Guess we will find out. So for now, let's assume that Millsaps will be shipped out of the South and into the Central. My prediction for the regional would look like this....
1.) Salisbury Pool B
2.) Shenandoah Pool C At Large
3.) York Pool B
4.) NCW USAC Champ Pool A
5.) Lynchburg *ODAC Champ Pool A (*obviously assuming they win)
6.) Frostburg St. *AMCC Champ Pool A (*obviously assuming they win)
That last spot is really up in the air. So much could happen to determine that final spot. Putting Frostburg St. in there shows you just how one team winning can affect so much. The reality is that all those bubble teams in the South (CNU, Methodist, Rhodes) really have no margin for error and need zero upsets in other Conference Tourneys. Same goes for Lynchburg if they fall short in the ODAC Tourney.
Good job, pauperboy!
Salisbury might be an 8-team bracket as well.
The other USA-South "at-large" contenders breakdown : these numbers are NOT official by any means as I tried to figure out some stuff so far ... please anyone be more than happy to verify these numbers.
As of today, April 21st @ 12:40pm, is very much "UNOFFICIAL" ...
Shenandoah University :
25-7 "in-region" .781% (corrected, I missed the FC tourney game, I previously had 24 wins)
0-2 vs. MU
1-1 vs. CNU
2-0 vs. AV
2-1 vs. FC (corrected, I missed the tourney game)
1-0 vs. GC
2-3 vs. NCW
=========
8-7 vs. USA-South overall (corrected)
8-5 vs. USA-South excluding "head to head" vs. MU (corrected)
7-6 vs. USA-South excluding "head to head" vs. CNU (corrected)
(.705%) 12-5 vs. MU common "in-region" opponents excluding "head to head" (corrected)
(.666%) 12-6 vs. CNU common "in-region" opponents excluding "head to head"
Shenandoah's "in-region" opponents OWP = 332-276-5 (.5415986%)
I did not include the games with SU and it was their opponents "overall" record.
Methodist University :
16-10 "in-region" .615% (correction, included Albertus Magnus College 2wins by mistake)
2-0 vs. SU
1-2 vs. CNU
2-0 vs. GC
0-2 vs. NCW
0-1 vs. AV
1-1 vs. FC
=========
6-6 vs. USA-South overall
4-6 vs. USA-South excluding "head to head" vs. SU
5-4 vs. USA-South excluding "head to head" vs. CNU
(.500%) 7-7 vs. SU common "in-region" opponents excluding "head to head"
(.600%) 9-6 vs. CNU common "in-region" opponents excluding "head to head"
MU's "in-region" opponents OWP = 249-210-3 (.538961%)
I did not include the games with MU and it was their opponents "overall" record.
Christopher Newport University :
17-9 "in-region" .653%
1-1 vs. SU
2-1 vs. MU
1-2 vs. NCW
2-1 vs. AV
0-1 vs. FC
1-1 vs. GC
=========
7-7 vs. USA-South overall
6-6 vs. USA-South excluding "head to head" vs. SU
5-6 vs. USA-South excluding "head to head" vs. MU
(.555%) 10-8 vs. SU common "in-region" opponents excluding "head to head"
(.529%) 9-8 vs. MU common "in-region" opponents excluding "head to head"
CNU's "in-region" opponents OWP = 238-191-2 (.5522051%)
I did not include the games with CNU and it was their opponents "overall" record.
Not sure how much "tighter" you can get than that?
By no means am I stating these numbers are 100% accurate ... I would not be surprised IF they might be an error here or there.
NCAA Division III Baseball -- Iterative Strength Ratings Top 80 ... South Region Team's in bold
http://www.boydsworld.com/baseball/isr/d3_isr.html
Last updated: Tue Apr 21 08:53:51 2009
Note: Strength of schedule rank is for games to date. Only teams who have played at least ten NCAA Division III games are listed. Score data is taken from the official NCAA site, which means that there are quite a few errors in here; corrections are welcomed, although the quickest path is to get the SID to correct the official data. Ratings are updated daily around 8:30 Central Time.
D3 Overall
Rank Rating W L W L SoS Team
1 129.8 25 4 36 5 9 Millsaps
2 129.5 28 4 31 6 19 Texas-Tyler
3 128.3 20 4 24 5 12 Heidelberg
4 126.8 30 2 31 3 64 Pomona-Pitzer
5 125.1 17 6 22 7 5 St. Thomas, Minnesota
6 124.6 13 4 19 5 14 Carthage
7 124.4 14 5 17 7 6 Marietta
8 123.0 16 9 20 10 1 Wisconsin-Whitewater
9 122.2 13 5 20 8 17 Illinois Wesleyan
10 121.5 21 8 21 8 21 Wisconsin-Stevens Point
11 121.5 25 2 30 3 141 Southern Maine
12 121.3 14 6 15 9 15 St. Olaf
13 119.8 21 2 21 2 167 Trinity, CT
14 119.0 23 7 31 8 50 Shenandoah
15 119.0 17 2 27 2 165 St. Scholastica
16 118.6 18 6 23 13 45 Hardin-Simmons
17 118.5 23 7 28 7 57 Wooster
18 118.4 27 3 33 5 175 Salisbury
19 118.3 17 7 25 9 32 Franklin
20 118.1 22 5 23 6 106 Ithaca
D3 Overall
Rank Rating W L W L SoS Team
21 118.0 22 7 24 7 58 California Lutheran
22 117.7 26 5 29 8 131 George Fox
23 117.5 21 5 23 5 110 Eastern Connecticut State
24 117.4 15 9 19 15 16 Mary Hardin-Baylor
25 117.4 26 8 28 8 77 Pacific Lutheran
26 117.3 23 7 28 7 81 Kean
27 117.1 14 9 16 10 11 Wisconsin-La Crosse
28 116.8 16 9 21 10 25 Chapman
29 116.6 21 7 23 8 76 Birmingham-Southern
30 116.4 21 6 24 7 103 Penn State-Erie
31 116.3 13 4 21 5 97 Thomas More
32 116.2 21 10 26 11 35 Texas Lutheran
33 116.0 18 8 20 9 41 Christopher Newport
34 115.7 14 10 20 15 13 Texas-Dallas
35 115.2 25 13 25 16 37 North Carolina Wesleyan
36 114.9 10 8 13 8 7 Otterbein
37 114.7 23 11 24 12 48 Methodist
38 114.6 16 13 22 13 8 McMurry
39 114.5 14 4 20 8 135 Aurora
40 114.5 15 4 24 6 145 Wilkes
D3 Overall
Rank Rating W L W L SoS Team
41 114.3 11 11 15 11 3 Wisconsin-Oshkosh
42 114.2 19 5 24 5 154 Keystone
43 114.2 16 5 26 6 121 Buena Vista
44 114.1 12 5 16 7 85 John Carroll
45 114.0 16 8 17 12 51 La Verne
46 113.8 20 4 22 4 193 Curry
47 113.8 20 10 20 11 55 Redlands
48 113.6 15 7 17 9 70 Mount Union
49 113.5 14 9 18 12 29 Denison
50 113.4 16 8 17 11 60 Loras
51 113.2 14 7 19 9 65 Mount St. Joseph
52 113.1 9 7 13 7 23 St. Norbert
53 113.0 21 4 23 7 210 Suffolk
54 112.7 12 7 15 14 44 Manchester
55 112.5 14 11 17 14 27 DePauw
56 112.1 18 6 19 9 153 Elizabethtown
57 112.1 8 7 15 8 20 Washington and Jefferson
58 112.1 25 8 27 9 164 Linfield
59 111.7 15 15 21 19 10 Trinity, TX
60 111.6 16 10 18 14 49 William Paterson
D3 Overall
Rank Rating W L W L SoS Team
61 111.5 13 8 20 10 53 Thiel
62 111.4 13 8 17 14 54 Coe
63 111.4 7 4 17 8 68 Rockford
64 111.0 12 9 17 11 34 Ohio Wesleyan
65 110.9 15 7 16 13 113 Manhattanville
66 110.8 19 14 27 16 40 Rhodes
67 110.7 17 10 19 11 73 Rowan
68 110.4 15 13 16 16 28 Piedmont
69 110.2 14 8 17 11 92 DeSales
70 110.2 11 9 13 10 33 Keene State
71 110.1 10 14 17 21 4 Hendrix
72 110.1 13 7 14 9 102 Amherst
73 110.0 15 6 19 9 162 Edgewood
74 110.0 18 11 22 13 80 Mississippi College
75 109.9 20 5 25 12 221 Rochester
76 109.7 23 11 23 11 128 Lynchburg
77 109.6 13 9 15 10 59 Johns Hopkins
78 109.5 20 11 23 12 107 Virginia Wesleyan
79 109.5 18 6 19 7 198 Adrian
80 109.0 14 9 20 13 90 Oglethorpe
For remainder of the list ... http://www.boydsworld.com/baseball/isr/d3_isr.html
South Region Rankings - April 23rd
"in-region record listed 1st"
1. 29-5 Millsaps 32-6
2. 26-5 Salisbury 33-5
3. 25-7 Shenandoah 31-8
4. 17-9 Christopher Newport 21-9-1
5. 24-9 York (Pa.) 24-9
So is the Averett 2007 season, when they went 31-12 with an arguably soft schedule and didn't get a sniff for the NCAA's worrisome to the Shenandoah faithful? Averett went 1-2 that season in the USAS tournament while SU went 3-2 this year, and it would appear to the untrained eye that this year's SU squad is better than the Averett 2007 squad...but it happened.
Some ODAC schools now feeling the squeeze of tournament pressure. One thing for sure, every team had a shot to get in on their own by winning their tournament so it'll be hard to protest (too much) when judgment day comes for the non-tournament winners.
Shenandoah wins out, not sure HOW they cannot make it?
Review daily dose dialog :
http://www.d3sports.com/dailydose/2009/04/23/ncaa-regional-rankings-week-1/#comments
Millsaps is in jeopardy of losing "automatic bid" with 1st round loss in their tourney, if they do not win conference tourney, what type of affect will that have on the "Pool C" teams?
If Millsaps makes it to the Regions, will they be going to Salisbury, MD? I know there was discussion that they might be shipped elsewhere?
What also hurt Averett that year, once they completed the USA-South Conference tourney, there season was over with NO more games to be played. IF they could of had a few more "in-region" game left on the docket, who knows ?
Quote from: Milby on April 24, 2009, 07:44:44 AM
Shenandoah wins out, not sure HOW they cannot make it?
going 3-6 against the top 3 teams in the USA South does not help their chances.
Quote from: Milby on April 24, 2009, 07:44:44 AM
Shenandoah wins out, not sure HOW they cannot make it?
Review daily dose dialog :
http://www.d3sports.com/dailydose/2009/04/23/ncaa-regional-rankings-week-1/#comments
Millsaps is in jeopardy of losing "automatic bid" with 1st round loss in their tourney, if they do not win conference tourney, what type of affect will that have on the "Pool C" teams?
If Millsaps makes it to the Regions, will they be going to Salisbury, MD? I know there was discussion that they might be shipped elsewhere?
What also hurt Averett that year, once they completed the USA-South Conference tourney, there season was over with NO more games to be played. IF they could of had a few more "in-region" game left on the docket, who knows ?
That's ridiculous. There is no way the #1 ranked team in the country last week should be jeopardy of a bid just bc they went 2 and out in their conference tournament. There is no question Millsaps should be in, and the very fact that there is a discussion about this clearly reveals there are giant flaws in the selection process
Quote from: d3baseballnut on April 25, 2009, 10:12:44 PM
Quote from: Milby on April 24, 2009, 07:44:44 AM
Shenandoah wins out, not sure HOW they cannot make it?
Review daily dose dialog :
http://www.d3sports.com/dailydose/2009/04/23/ncaa-regional-rankings-week-1/#comments
Millsaps is in jeopardy of losing "automatic bid" with 1st round loss in their tourney, if they do not win conference tourney, what type of affect will that have on the "Pool C" teams?
If Millsaps makes it to the Regions, will they be going to Salisbury, MD? I know there was discussion that they might be shipped elsewhere?
What also hurt Averett that year, once they completed the USA-South Conference tourney, there season was over with NO more games to be played. IF they could of had a few more "in-region" game left on the docket, who knows ?
That's ridiculous. There is no way the #1 ranked team in the country last week should be jeopardy of a bid just bc they went 2 and out in their conference tournament. There is no question Millsaps should be in, and the very fact that there is a discussion about this clearly reveals there are giant flaws in the selection process
Sorry, but with Millsaps going 0-2 in their conference tourney, they lost the "automatic bid". I stated nothing about the "at large" bid.
Quote from: Catfishncwc on April 25, 2009, 10:02:57 PM
Quote from: Milby on April 24, 2009, 07:44:44 AM
Shenandoah wins out, not sure HOW they cannot make it?
going 3-6 against the top 3 teams in the USA South does not help their chances.
That does not play into anything, it's the "in-region" record, OWP, OOWP.
SU is currently
27-7 "in-region". SU beats Frostburg next week, again I do not see HOW they cannot NOT make it.
Quote from: Milby on April 26, 2009, 12:26:46 AM
Quote from: Catfishncwc on April 25, 2009, 10:02:57 PM
Quote from: Milby on April 24, 2009, 07:44:44 AM
Shenandoah wins out, not sure HOW they cannot make it?
going 3-6 against the top 3 teams in the USA South does not help their chances.
That does not play into anything, it's the "in-region" record, OWP, OOWP.
SU is currently 27-7 "in-region". SU beats Frostburg next week, again I do not see HOW they cannot NOT make it.
call me crazy but I still think conference play is important and having a 3-6 showing against the 3 teams that finished ahead of you in the conference does not scream out to me EILTE team. But I could just be picky. the whole 27-7 argument means you went 21-1 against teams that were not CNU, MU and NCWC and 3-6 against teams you should be better than if you are going to get a at large bid
My pick at the South Regional
#1 Millsaps
#2 Salisbury
#3 NC Wesleyan
#4 Shenandoah
#5 Washington and Lee
#6 Birmingham-Southern
birmingham Southern is not eligible for postseason play as they are not a full time member of Division 3 baseball yet.
My pick is similar, yet with CNU in there instead of Birmingham Southern.
I do think the USA South will get 3 bids. Ppl seem to be high on CNU, but I personally do not think you can keep Shenandoah out. Too many wins at 33-8. I dont know what else they could have done.
Quote from: HighHeat on April 26, 2009, 10:12:20 PM
My pick at the South Regional
#1 Millsaps
#2 Salisbury
#3 NC Wesleyan
#4 Shenandoah
#5 Washington and Lee
#6 Birmingham-Southern Christopher Newport
I think that this makes a nice south region. I would not be surprised if a Mid-Atlantic team is inserted and Millsaps move to another region.
I would definitely put CNU AHEAD of W&L in that scenario...and maybe ahead of SU.
Yea Jim, I have been doing a little bracketology, and I coul really see MIllsaps getting sent to the central or mideast. To be honest, those locations are probably closer to Millsaps given that this year's South Regional tournament is not in Virginia, but on Maryland's eastern shore. The central, mideast, and midwest all really lack solid #2 seeds, apart from Wooster, which would be a good #2 seed behind heidelberg in the Mideast.
Quote from: d3baseballnut on April 28, 2009, 08:49:26 AM
Yea Jim, I have been doing a little bracketology, and I coul really see MIllsaps getting sent to the central or mideast. To be honest, those locations are probably closer to Millsaps given that this year's South Regional tournament is not in Virginia, but on Maryland's eastern shore. The central, mideast, and midwest all really lack solid #2 seeds, apart from Wooster, which would be a good #2 seed behind heidelberg in the Mideast.
Not a fan of St. Thomas or St. Scholastica, huh?
the sad thing with all of this debate is that i look at the mid atlantic region and i see a lot of fraudulent teams - frostburg is ranked #7 in the region and while methodist was pounding them 17-2, i thought they were one of the worst teams i've seen in years...and #4 ranked penn-state behrend beat them 3-2 and 4-2...i can't imagine the frostburg team i saw staying within 5 runs of methodist, even if mu threw their #4 starter (which they did) - mu also beat montclair twice and montclair's run through the south was nothing short of a disaster (i know, i know...the south teams had been playing longer, but montclair went 2-7! on that trip and they're the 3rd ranked team in the region) - even a team like keystone, which has an impressive record and is ranked #10 in the country by this site, looks like a fraud to me - imagine what a usasac team would do if they got to play baptist bible (8-18) and philadelphia bible (0-21) three times each and then got dh's against arcadia (5-30) and marywood (8-23) - that is such a weak region that there shouldn't be a single pool c from that region in my opinion
...as an aside, shenandoah went 9-1 vs. teams in the mid-atlantic region :)
Quote from: d3baseballnut on April 28, 2009, 08:49:26 AM
Yea Jim, I have been doing a little bracketology, and I coul really see MIllsaps getting sent to the central or mideast. To be honest, those locations are probably closer to Millsaps given that this year's South Regional tournament is not in Virginia, but on Maryland's eastern shore. The central, mideast, and midwest all really lack solid #2 seeds, apart from Wooster, which would be a good #2 seed behind heidelberg in the Mideast.
Ok, say Millsaps does get sent to another region. Who would then be the number one seed in the south? Do you think Salisbury is a legit No. 1 seed for that region. I completely forgot about Birmingham-Southern and their eligibility in D3. As I have looked more and more, it seems that CNU should get that final bid and as much as everyone doesn't want it Shenandoah is going to get in. It suchs because Methodist should be in there as well and they are much more deserving than any of those Mid-Atlantic bubbles.
BTW, has anyone seen what Eric Groff is going up at Keystone College? The guy is going nuts at the plate.
I think Salisbury should be the #1 seed. I think Shenandoah will get in. And I think Narch is absolutely right.
Not that what I think counts for much...
Quote from: HighHeat on April 28, 2009, 02:06:52 PM
Quote from: d3baseballnut on April 28, 2009, 08:49:26 AM
Yea Jim, I have been doing a little bracketology, and I coul really see MIllsaps getting sent to the central or mideast. To be honest, those locations are probably closer to Millsaps given that this year's South Regional tournament is not in Virginia, but on Maryland's eastern shore. The central, mideast, and midwest all really lack solid #2 seeds, apart from Wooster, which would be a good #2 seed behind heidelberg in the Mideast.
Ok, say Millsaps does get sent to another region. Who would then be the number one seed in the south? Do you think Salisbury is a legit No. 1 seed for that region. I completely forgot about Birmingham-Southern and their eligibility in D3. As I have looked more and more, it seems that CNU should get that final bid and as much as everyone doesn't want it Shenandoah is going to get in. It suchs because Methodist should be in there as well and they are much more deserving than any of those Mid-Atlantic bubbles.
BTW, has anyone seen what Eric Groff is going up at Keystone College? The guy is going nuts at the plate.
Narch and High Heat-
For starters, I
do think Salisbury is worthy of a #1 seed. Right now, i have them as #1 and Millsaps as number 2 (personally, I dont think Millsaps has great pitching.)
Second, Narch, I love St. Scholastica, but I actually see them as a #1 see in the Midwest, not a #2. My point was that Millsaps would make a solid #2 seed in those regions who only have good #1 seeds...like St. scholastica
Thirdly, if Millsaps gets sent to a different region, I really think Shenandoah is a worthy #2 seed. they have had quite a year. I could see the committee putting CNU there as a #2, but personally, i just dont think CNU is good enough to be a #2.
Finally, before you all go bash on the Mid-Atlantic Region, don't forget it was a Mid-Atlantic team who came down south and won your region last year. They beat all the best teams you had to throw at them. Although some Mid-Atlantic regions are weak, is doesnt mean that the teams winning the conferences are weak.
I do agree that Montclair got smashed in their trip down south, which is why i Do not think they deserve an at large. The committe gives free C bids to the NJAC because "its a great conference". From the looks of their performance out of conference, they have not faired well.
that was last year d3baseballnut, the 3rd ranked Mid Atlantic team came down South and got waxed. Top to Bottom I would put the South against any region this year.
Quote from: d3baseballnut on April 28, 2009, 02:37:08 PMFinally, before you all go bash on the Mid-Atlantic Region, don't forget it was a Mid-Atlantic team who came down south and won your region last year. They beat all the best teams you had to throw at them. Although some Mid-Atlantic regions are weak, is doesnt mean that the teams winning the conferences are weak.
I do agree that Montclair got smashed in their trip down south, which is why i Do not think they deserve an at large. The committe gives free C bids to the NJAC because "its a great conference". From the looks of their performance out of conference, they have not faired well.
i've got no problem with pool A teams from the mid-atlantic this year...it's the potential C's - typically, the mid-atlantic is a good region, but i don't think this is a typical year
...but...hopkins went through the regional last year after taking an opening game loss to a usasac school (cnu) and beating rmc (who methodist beat), piedmont (who methodist swept), lynchburg and salisbury - i'm just saying...hopkins lost 3 times in the post-season last year, and one of those losses was to a usasac team (and 2 were to the eventual national champion) :)
Please remember that Rochester sat on the table thru all 14 rounds. The committee doesn't have to select a team from a region.
Let's look at the Regional Rankings on Thursday.
After you take the Pool A's and B's off the list, you are down to three or four strong conferences, 4-5 strong teams that were upset in their conference tourneys and then the last 4-5 bids are the ones that everyone is fighting over.
so if millsaps does travel and SU gets the No. 1 seed, that would probably push Shenandoah to No. 2 and NCWC to No. 3. Wash. and Lee picks up one of the last two spots with the automatic from the ODAC.
Does this mean if the committee decides to bring in a champion from the one of the Mid-Atlantic conference that CNU or Methodist will not get in? What are the chances of the South Region getting 7 teams this year? I think it will be 6, but if they bring in an automatic bid from another conference, will the South Region get to go with one more team?
The south more than likely will be a 6 team regional.
Quote from: HighHeat on April 28, 2009, 08:24:27 PM
so if millsaps does travel and SU gets the No. 1 seed, that would probably push Shenandoah to No. 2 and NCWC to No. 3. Wash. and Lee picks up one of the last two spots with the automatic from the ODAC.
Does this mean if the committee decides to bring in a champion from the one of the Mid-Atlantic conference that CNU or Methodist will not get in? What are the chances of the South Region getting 7 teams this year? I think it will be 6, but if they bring in an automatic bid from another conference, will the South Region get to go with one more team?
Wherever they can bus the team.
Please read this Daily Dose and the associated comments as to how D3baseball.com anticipated the 2008 Selections.
http://www.d3sports.com/dailydose/2008/05/11/d3baseballcom-looks-at-the-bids/
and the follow-up response after the selection committee released the bids.
http://www.d3sports.com/dailydose/2008/05/12/2008-ncaa-d-iii-baseball-championship-release/#comments
It should answer many questions.
Thanks
Quote from: Catfishncwc on April 28, 2009, 04:18:32 PM
that was last year d3baseballnut, the 3rd ranked Mid Atlantic team came down South and got waxed. Top to Bottom I would put the South against any region this year.
Wow...ok...south vs. New England...NE has to win with Trinity, ECSU, Southern Maine, Wheaton, Curry.....good region.
Plus, i really think the Mid-Atlantic is pretty good. Keystone is legit...Im saying it right now...i know their name isnt as intimidating as "Rowan" or "Montclair", but they have had some really good wins this year.
RPI, Olivet, Suffolk, Cortland (x2), William Paterson (if the NJAC is sooooo good), and even Susquehanna is a good non-conference win this year
New Regional rankings are up:
1. Salisbury
2. Milsaps
3. Shenandoah
4. Christopher Newport
5. North Carolina Wesleyan
Quote from: hokieone on April 30, 2009, 02:44:07 PM
New Regional rankings are up:
1. Milsaps
2. Salisbury
3. Shenandoah
4. Christopher Newport
5. North Carolina Wesleyan
QuoteSouth Region
1. Salisbury 35-6 28-6
2. Millsaps 32-8 29-7
3. Shenandoah 33-8 27-7
4. Christopher Newport 24-10-1 20-10
5. North Carolina Wesleyan 27-19 25-15
I am moving my discussion to the blogs
http://www.d3sports.com/dailydose/2009/04/30/ncaa-regional-rankings-week-2/#comments
Looks like the captains did not help their chances this weekend of getting into regionals with a lose and a tie to Stevenson this weekend. does that open up the door for any other teams?
It would not surprise me to see Methodist sneak back in there IF they sweep Piedmont.
I think the Captains needed to sweep Stevenson for a shot at a bid. And unfortunately they couldn't get the job done in either of the two games...
Won't Salisbury be a 6-team regional? With only 3 Pool A bids (USAS/NC Wesleysan, SCAC/Hendrix, and ODAC/W&L), 2 likely Pool C bids (Shenandoah and Millsaps) and a certain Pool B (Salisbury), is there any reason to expand except for accomodating imports? Will the South Region get a third Pool C bid?
Here is the message for general South Region talk.
with a few weeks left before conference play, here is my version South Region's top 7 teams:
1. Shenandoah (23-6), #14 in D3baseball.com poll (beat Bridgewater, Methodist, Montclair St., CNU)
2. Salisbury (19-4), #6 in D3baseball.com poll (beat Mary Washington, Catholic)
3. Birmingham Southern (24-4), #15 in D3baseball.com poll (beat Huntington X2, Mount St. Joseph)
4. Rhodes (20-9), (beat Huntington, Marietta, Union, Millsaps, Methodist)
5. Methodist (20-8), (beat La Grange X2, Bridgewater, Lynchburg, CNU, VA Wesleyan X2, Shenandoah, Ferrum)
6. Huntington (23-9), (beat Rhodes, Methodist, Millsaps, Mount St. Josephs, Hampden Sydney X2, Piedmont)
7. NC Wesleyan (15-15), beat (Shenandoah X2, Lynchburg, Methodist, Ferrum X2, Hampden Sydney)
Does anyone have access to the "in-region" records?
That is what is going to determine who gets an at-large bid for any other USA-South teams who do not win the USA-Tournament.
Quote from: LTHSdad on April 06, 2010, 02:01:34 PM
with a few weeks left before conference play, here is my version South Region's top 7 teams:
1. Shenandoah (23-6), #14 in D3baseball.com poll (beat Bridgewater, Methodist, Montclair St., CNU)
2. Salisbury (19-4), #6 in D3baseball.com poll (beat Mary Washington, Catholic)
3. Birmingham Southern (24-4), #15 in D3baseball.com poll (beat Huntington X2, Mount St. Joseph)
4. Rhodes (20-9), (beat Huntington, Marietta, Union, Millsaps, Methodist)
5. Methodist (20-8), (beat La Grange X2, Bridgewater, Lynchburg, CNU, VA Wesleyan X2, Shenandoah, Ferrum X2)
6. Huntington (23-9), (beat Rhodes, Methodist, Millsaps, Mount St. Josephs, Hampden Sydney X2, Piedmont)
7. NC Wesleyan (15-15), beat (Shenandoah X2, Lynchburg, Methodist, Ferrum X2, Hampden Sydney)
my only problem with this list is shenandoah's placement at the top...they haven't played enough strong competition to be placed above salisbury and bsc – i'd put them at #3 in the region, but i think that methodist is a better team (per head-to-head scores and conference standings)
rhodes and bsc play each other 3X this weekend...should be an interesting series
mu gets emory this weekend (after lynchburg today), and while the eagles are down a bit this year, i expect the games to be very good and very close
the ncwc overall record is a bit deceptive...at least 7 of their losses are out-of-region (vs. 2 or 3 wins)...i can't argue with their inclusion, although i'm sure there is someone who looks better "on-paper"
and you missed the X2 w/ MU vs. FC :)
I see that Salisbury lost to the DelMarVa Shorebirds 6-9. I think it's really cool that college teams can mix it up with the minor leaguers. Does anybody know how that game got arranged?
Around my area, Norfolk State just played Norfolk Tides (AAA team for the Orioles) and lost 6-0...pretty cool though.
We were suppose to play the Carolina Mudcats one year but got rained out and then we were supposed to play the Kinston Indians another year and had to get out of the game due running out of pitching.
Maryville is 17-9 and has beaten Huntington twice. Seems like that would sneak them in somewhere above, say, NC Wesleyan (15-15).
Sorry to pop your bubble, but only quality wins Maryville has is against Emory X2 and Huntington X2
Any rumors about where the South Regional will be held in 2011?
Great - NCAA announces all the other Regional locations except ...... the South. Anybody hearing any rumors about potential South locations?
Quote from: NoVa Baseball on January 08, 2011, 10:52:19 AM
Great - NCAA announces all the other Regional locations except ...... the South. Anybody hearing any rumors about potential South locations?
South Region is still "TBA".