2016 West Regional - Spokane, WA

Started by Westside, April 24, 2016, 10:26:37 PM

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Mr. Ypsi

Quote from: Ralph Turner on May 05, 2016, 10:50:13 PM
Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on May 05, 2016, 10:35:01 PM
Hey!  I am not some derelict building - I am ALBERTA! ;)

With almost 22,000 posts, SOME of them are bound to be decent - if only by 'law of averages'. ;D

I confess that I am not that much into D3 baseball (I follow only the west and central boards).  And I never followed it at all until the post-season in 2010, when the final word was "They will 'Remember the Titans' in Appleton".  The performance by Jason Pankau that day, against a Cortland team that had pounded the crap out of all other pitching, made me a fan.  (During the crucial innings, when IWU went from down 1-2, to up 17-2, he yielded ZERO base runners!)  That both coaches cleared the benches when the game was obviously over (give those guys a taste of the WS!) solidified my fanship.

I'm much more a football and (especially) basketball fan (both genders), but I do like my baseball also.  (Though IWU seems to be much better at softball than baseball. :P)
If I recall correctly, in a previous life Mr Ypsi taught statistics.

I confess to having taught statistics for (so far) about half my life.  (If it reaches only one third of my life, I'll be 102! ;D)

I therefore must also confess that I used 'law of averages' in the colloquial sense, rather than statistically.  Since no standard (i.e., mean) was established, there can be no (identifiable) regression to the mean.  A blithering idiot could have 22,000 consecutive horrible posts (though probably a few decent just by accident); a baseball savant could have nearly 22,000 en fuego posts, though no doubt a few clinkers along the way.  I hope I am not a blithering idiot, and am pretty sure I am not a baseball savant, so a good day now and then seems inevitable. :D

Jack Parkman




Teams: Not seeded just in order qualified

1. Pacific Lutheran (25-16)
2. Trinity (35-7)
3. Cal Lu (31-11)
4.
5.
6.


108 Stitches

Teams: Not seeded just in order qualified

1. Pacific Lutheran (25-16)
2. Trinity (35-7)
3. CLU (31-11)
4.
5.
6.

Team Stats:
Pacific Lutheran: .290 Batting Average, 4.35 ERA, .970 Fielding %
Trinity: 0.347 BA, 2.79 ERA, 0.968 Fielding %
CLU: 0.328 BA 3.43 ERA 0.972 Fielding %

108 Stitches

The west regional is looking clearer now after this weekend. The ASC winner will take the last guaranteed spot, and Whitworth will likely get an at large bid and most likely one out of region team. I just don't see CTX, Oxy and TLU taking the last spot as one of the top ranked Midwest teams, even Whitworth is at risk depending on what happens in the mid-west. Trinity will take the top seed with CLU likely at 2, which is good for them to stay out of Trinity's way for as long as possible. PLU likely the 6 seed, and the rest we have to see.

Westside

Quote from: 108 Stitches on May 09, 2016, 12:19:30 PM
The west regional is looking clearer now after this weekend. The ASC winner will take the last guaranteed spot, and Whitworth will likely get an at large bid and most likely one out of region team. I just don't see CTX, Oxy and TLU taking the last spot as one of the top ranked Midwest teams, even Whitworth is at risk depending on what happens in the mid-west. Trinity will take the top seed with CLU likely at 2, which is good for them to stay out of Trinity's way for as long as possible. PLU likely the 6 seed, and the rest we have to see.

I pretty much agree with everything you said. I think Whitworth gets in, a lot of it having to do with the fact they are hosting.
I mean, let's compare:

Whitworth - 29-11, 153 SOS
Occidental - 32-9, 175 SOS

So Oxy has more a better win % with a slightly worse SOS. That feels like a wash to me, but Whitworth gets the tiebreaker with proximity to the regional.

1. Trinity
2. CLU
3. Whitworth
4. ASC Winner
5. Out of Region Team
6. PLU

But we have seen the committee do crazy things before ::)

I think there is also a bit of recency bias for the regionals, whether the committee admits it or not. They may not look favorably to having two SCIAC teams in the regional, since it has been a while since there was a deep run by a team from Cali (Chapman as a non-SCIAC member excluded!).
NWC Baseball

BigPoppa

Or would they take OXY and ship them as a 5/6 seed somewhere else? Midwest? Central?
Baseball is not a game that builds character, it is a game that reveals it.

(509)Rat

So you baseball guys actually think there is some chance that the NCAA flies in two teams when Whitworth is sitting right there with a resume that the committee could easily defend?


Jack Parkman

Quote from: (509)Rat on May 09, 2016, 01:43:09 PM
So you baseball guys actually think there is some chance that the NCAA flies in two teams when Whitworth is sitting right there with a resume that the committee could easily defend?



I think we all agree Whitworth is in.  The big question is whether Oxy gets in or if they ship in someone from another region.  This is a 4-flight regional however you look at it.

Westside

Quote from: (509)Rat on May 09, 2016, 01:43:09 PM
So you baseball guys actually think there is some chance that the NCAA flies in two teams when Whitworth is sitting right there with a resume that the committee could easily defend?

Whitworth is in. A #3 ranking in the Regional Standings pretty much guarantees that. We were just discussing things, on the discussion forum :-*

To be fair though, with a SOS of 150+, not winning the conference championship, and being only 8-7 in their last 15 games; you can just as easily point out reasons they might not make it. Which, again, they will.
NWC Baseball

Just_Some_Guy

As I shared on the SCAC board, after not making it to the SCAC final I do not think Texas Lutheran has a shot. This is especially true now that Cal Lu won the SCIAC; however, is there a scenario where Hardin Simmons wins the ASC and the committee now all of sudden looks at a TLU team with a decent SOS and 3 wins against Trinity, 3 against ASC champ Hardin Simmons and 1 against Birmingham Southern and gives them a twinge of consideration? How does their resume compare to Oxy? Is it truly just Oxy or a team from another region?

QuoteI'd venture that TLU's 3 recent losses to a sub .500 Southwestern team and their two late February losses to the University of Dallas will be tough to overcome. That said, they had a really great conference season and finished the year 3-4 against a very, very good Trinity team. Not to mention a valuable win against Birmingham Southern. I don't think they will leap frog Whitworth, but if someone other than Oxy or Cal Lutheran wins the SCIAC tournament, they might have an outside shot.

JSG

Ralph Turner

But does HSU make it to the Regional Rankings?

Quote from: Just_Some_Guy on May 09, 2016, 02:40:21 PM
As I shared on the SCAC board, after not making it to the SCAC final I do not think Texas Lutheran has a shot. This is especially true now that Cal Lu won the SCIAC; however, is there a scenario where Hardin Simmons wins the ASC and the committee now all of sudden looks at a TLU team with a decent SOS and 3 wins against Trinity, 3 against ASC champ Hardin Simmons and 1 against Birmingham Southern and gives them a twinge of consideration? How does their resume compare to Oxy? Is it truly just Oxy or a team from another region?

QuoteI'd venture that TLU's 3 recent losses to a sub .500 Southwestern team and their two late February losses to the University of Dallas will be tough to overcome. That said, they had a really great conference season and finished the year 3-4 against a very, very good Trinity team. Not to mention a valuable win against Birmingham Southern. I don't think they will leap frog Whitworth, but if someone other than Oxy or Cal Lutheran wins the SCIAC tournament, they might have an outside shot.

JSG

108 Stitches

The last spot in the West (besides Whitworth) will likely be determined what happens with the Midwest teams. Per the book they give more weight on the last 25% of the schedule and not getting to the conf championship hurts TLU and helps Oxy IMO. The West rankings later in the week should provide some insight. Does the conf tournament for the MWest teams happen this weekend?

Midwest Region           
1   Wis.-La Crosse   26-7-0 ( 0.788)   26-7-0 ( 0.788)   
2   Concordia Chicago   28-9-0 ( 0.757)   28-9-0 ( 0.757)   
3   Wis.-Whitewater   22-9-0 ( 0.710)   22-9-0 ( 0.710)   
4   St. Thomas (MN)   23-9-0 ( 0.719)   23-9-0 ( 0.719)   
5   Saint Mary's (MN)   22-11-1 ( 0.662)   22-12-1 ( 0.643)   
6   Saint John's (MN)   25-9-0 ( 0.735)   25-10-0 ( 0.714) 

Jack Parkman

Quote from: 108 Stitches on May 09, 2016, 04:20:46 PM
The last spot in the West (besides Whitworth) will likely be determined what happens with the Midwest teams. Per the book they give more weight on the last 25% of the schedule and not getting to the conf championship hurts TLU and helps Oxy IMO. The West rankings later in the week should provide some insight. Does the conf tournament for the MWest teams happen this weekend?

Midwest Region           
1   Wis.-La Crosse   26-7-0 ( 0.788)   26-7-0 ( 0.788)   
2   Concordia Chicago   28-9-0 ( 0.757)   28-9-0 ( 0.757)   
3   Wis.-Whitewater   22-9-0 ( 0.710)   22-9-0 ( 0.710)   
4   St. Thomas (MN)   23-9-0 ( 0.719)   23-9-0 ( 0.719)   
5   Saint Mary's (MN)   22-11-1 ( 0.662)   22-12-1 ( 0.643)   
6   Saint John's (MN)   25-9-0 ( 0.735)   25-10-0 ( 0.714)

I could see a team like St. Johns (if they have a good MIAC tournament) being shipped West like they were a few years back.  The MIAC and WIAC are both good conferences and the committee has shown they are not afraid to ship teams in.

SoCalBaseballfan

My thoughts. Not seeded
from the former CrashDavisD3

Trinity
CLU
Whitworth
ASC Winner
Occidental
PLU

BigPoppa

I am not sure I see Oxy as "in." The NCAA has rewarded SoS in the last decade and that is where Oxy falls short. I see an outside team being sent into the Weat Regional. Maybe look to the WIAC, MIAC, or CCIW.
Baseball is not a game that builds character, it is a game that reveals it.