MBB: NESCAC

Started by cameltime, April 27, 2005, 02:38:16 PM

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Cards Fan

Quote from: hoya73 on February 21, 2017, 11:42:43 AM
Cards Fan--does it make a difference in your numbers if Amherst beat Williams two out of three?  Because they did.
Guess I read it wrong. That absolutely makes a difference.

grabtherim

I guess for me it's also a matter of which way a team is trending as the season moves along.  On that front, despite the fact that I would prefer to say our league deserves more teams, I honestly believe we have two lock candidates with perhaps a 3rd as an automatic qualifier in Trinity or Williams.  I know it's often taken as such, but it's not a knock on the Cardinals, Ephs or Jeffs.  I felt the same way about the Panthers a few times in recent years.  Without the AQ last year, the Panthers had no shot, and then made a nice run.  Stuff happens.  All this said, I predict the committee disagrees with me, especially with a Midd or Tufts win this weekend, Hixon's reputation/standing holds up, and Amherst makes it into the field of 64 while Wesleyan and Williams do not.  Amherst's path will clearly be made a bit tougher with a Williams or Trinity win.  It has to be harder to be the 4th team put in by the committee   than the 3rd.

nescac1

#23492
Barring a crazy number of upsets, I'd be stunned if NESCAC got less than four teams in, total, and five would not shock me.  Based on NCAA criteria, the league has a very strong case for five.  Remember that every Pool C candidate still has one more loss ahead of it save for Wes and Amherst and the winner of Rochester/Emory. New England is the biggest region in terms of number of teams.  If Babson wins out, no New England team will have a shot at Pool C most likely outside of NESCAC.  Will the NCAA really take fewer than 3-4 Pool C teams from New England?  That would be shocking to me and I think unprecedented. Especially when a few regions have very few legit candidates.  If Babson gets upset, or Trinity wins the NESCAC title, perhaps that makes things trickier.

nescac1

Following up on my last post, I know these are picked nationally, but it is telling how many Pool C bids New England as a region has received (by my count) in the recent past:

2016: 4
2015: 6
2014: 5
2013: 4

So IF Babson wins NEWMAC, the next five ranked teams from New England contending for Pool C bids will all be from NESCAC, almost certainly.  (If MIT picks up a win and a loss, they would still have zero wins against any regionally ranked opponents, so I don't see that moving them ahead of Wesleyan, Amherst or Williams, and no one else is really even close).  So if 2017 is on the historic low end of Pool C New England bids, that would mean (again, assuming Babson wins NEWMAC) four NESCAC teams make it as Pool C teams.  And again, that would be totally justified -- based on the NCAA's criteria -- by the gaudy national statistical placement of Williams, Wesleyan, and Amherst and the fact that they will very likely finish as three of the top six teams in a strong region. 

Canvas Hightops

Outstanding 'splaining, nescac1.
Now we'll wait for Dave to poke tiny holes in your post.
Knightslappy's stats certainly appear to back you up.
If the Ephs best Tufts, they must be in.  Otherwise they are still in strong position.
The former LJs are in bubble limbo hell. 
Hate to ignore Trinity but they have to beat a team they do not match up well against.  One might have said that about Middlebury last in season's playoffs.

Also, nescac1, is the time growing near for you to predict the POY, ROY, DPOY and COY?
And,  everyone else?

Ok,
St. Amour
Gilmour
Malcolm/Neal/Daly? (hey, I dunno)
Sheldon

NEhoops

#23495
The Northeast region gets a high number of at-large bids based on its overall size, as does the NESCAC based on the strength of the conference. Evidence of this is seen in the link below - NCAA tournament bids since 2007. UAA (Brandeis), NEWMAC and Little East are also in the top 10. 

http://static.psbin.com/y/d/btoz0nuwjoohnn/NCAA_Tournament_Bids.pdf

After Tufts and Middlebury, nothing is certain.


nescac1

NEhoops, I think St. Amour and Gilmour are about as easy choices as you could make for POY and ROY, respectively.  Ogundeko has a case for POY but St. Amour has been so dominant of late for a depleted Midd team that I think he has locked it down.   Brown and Sheldon are both very worthy COY candidates.  What Sheldon has done despite a limited Pace and the injury to Palleschi, and integrating a bunch of new players into the rotation, has been amazing.  Likewise, Brown has had to overcome adversity with the loss of Baines and some key injuries as well.  A toss-up between two worthy veteran coaches.  DPOY is anyone's guess -- loads of worthy candidates. 

I still think first-team all-NESCAC will be St. Amour, Ogundeko, Marcus Delpeche, McCarthy, Aronowitz.  If Tufts wins the league T. Smith might bump one of the last three guys just because coaches may want to reward them with somebody.  Second team, I'm bumping Jayde and going with T. Smith, Brown, Daly, Malcolm Delpeche, Simonds.  Jayde and Rafferty are the other two contenders for second-team slots; maybe Jake Brown gets bumped because of the injury and the sheer number of Midd guys, or perhaps Malcolm Delpeche. 

nescac1

Highlights posted from Williams-Amherst. 

http://ephsports.williams.edu/sports/mbkb/video/Williams_vs_Amherst_Highlights_2-18-17?list=/sports/mbkb/video/index

Appropriately, very Kyle Scadlock-heavy.  He really keyed the Ephs' big run.

nescac1

Regional rankings out.  I think it is utterly ridiculous for Williams to be ranked behind Amherst, but it is what it is as numbers seem to be everything.  On the plus side, a huge emphasis on numbers helps all of the NESCAC teams given how well all of them perform on the NCAA criteria.  Ephs need to win at Tufts or it will be a very nerve-wracking selection Monday.  Wesleyan seems pretty safely in based on these, with Amherst and Williams the teams that should be concerned.

http://www.d3hoops.com/notables/2017/02/men-regional-rankings-third

Bucket

#23499
Agree that it's disappointing to see Amherst ahead of Williams in these rankings.

Perhaps all 3 will get selected, but I think the team sitting on the bottom is the ultimate bubble. With a loss to Tufts, that's Williams. With a Williams win, Amherst could be on the outside looking in.

Though why do I feel that if Amherst is at the bottom of the 3-team stack, then--SURPRISE--the NESCAC gets 5 teams.

Of course, if Trinity were to win the NESCAC--or if Babsin were to slip up--then the bottom team is on the wrong side of the bubble.

TheHerst2and4

Quote from: nescac1 on February 22, 2017, 02:15:22 PM
I think it is utterly ridiculous for Williams to be ranked behind Amherst

I will defer to you nescac1 and other posters on this board that have a better pulse of non NESCAC teams, but is it really "utterly ridiculous"?

Let me preface this by saying personally I don't think Amherst deserves to get into the tournament.

That being said the teams are at worst neck and neck. Amherst beat Williams twice head to head, beat Tufts and beat the number one team in the country. Williams beats Midd, Hope and one win vs Wes. Think its the head to head coming into play and apparently the D3Hoops voters tend to agree with Amherst garnering more votes.

All that can change with a Williams win this weekend but I just don't think your characterization is fair at this point.

toad22

Quote from: TheHerst2and4 on February 22, 2017, 05:05:47 PM
Quote from: nescac1 on February 22, 2017, 02:15:22 PM
I think it is utterly ridiculous for Williams to be ranked behind Amherst

I will defer to you nescac1 and other posters on this board that have a better pulse of non NESCAC teams, but is it really "utterly ridiculous"?

Let me preface this by saying personally I don't think Amherst deserves to get into the tournament.

That being said the teams are at worst neck and neck. Amherst beat Williams twice head to head, beat Tufts and beat the number one team in the country. Williams beats Midd, Hope and one win vs Wes. Think its the head to head coming into play and apparently the D3Hoops voters tend to agree with Amherst garnering more votes.

All that can change with a Williams win this weekend but I just don't think your characterization is fair at this point.
The issue with Amherst is perception. If they get in to the tournament, they appear to be backing in. They have lost 3 of their last 4. In addition, Amherst played 16 of their 24 games at home, and when they did play away, they lost quite a bit. By comparison, Williams has won 5 of their last 6, and played only 11 of their 25 at home. It just appears bad.

nescac1

"Utterly ridiculous" was probably a bit of an overstatement, fair enough.  But I think what Toad said is on point.  In addition, I do think there is a difference between a win in a conference tourney game one week ago and regular-season losses one or nearly two months ago.  Importance of the game and in particular recency both matter, not just the raw head-to-head results.  The biggest issue for me is that Amherst played only eight road games and won only three of them.   Yes, one was at Williams, but Amherst also lost twice on the road to teams that Williams beat on the road (Springfield) and on a neutral court (Eastern Conn).  And Williams has plenty of quality road (Amherst, Bates, Springfield, Fitchburg State -- which has now won 9 of 10 with the only loss coming to Williams, Mount Union, Union -- now regionally ranked and in the championship game of a decent league) and neutral court (Hope, Eastern Conn) wins.  All of that combined gives Williams a significantly stronger resume when looking beyond the raw numbers. 

amh63

#23503
Back from my trip South to see Family and old friends!  Was on the road and missed most of the LJs vs Ephs game...except for the desperate rally led by Berman and company.  Did catch the WBB game. Some comments on the men's game and post season.
Congrats to Williams.  Their HC's decision to rotate players and the senior leadership proved to be the difference. 
Did any poster notice the "long discussion" between Dawson and HC Hixon while the WBB players were warming up?  Very interesting to me...like Dawson was asking Hixon if he should play overseas :).  A former long term assist coach...now retired...chatted with Dawson  afterwards.
What teams from the conference get to the post season and where...it will be what it will be.  If Amherst does get in, it will be like two years ago.  Away from LeFrak.  Amherst must get some offensive production from its Senior starters to get far....rebounds, points, etc. from the likes of Labattoff and Racy for sure.  Defense intensity must be stepped up?  Dawson is a liability on defense,
Imho.
Did anyone see the Duke vs Syracruse game ending last night?  Shades of the Amherst vs Bowdoin game.  Syracuse guard makes a half court shot as time runs out to win the game 78-75 against the ranked Duke team.  Yes, an "inversion of the LeFrak" game.  Pundits/ announcers were wondering if the win puts the Orangemen into the postseason.  Most "experts" think the ACC conference may get over 7 plus teams in.  A little bit like the speculation chatter here :).

JustAFan

Surprisingly slow day on the board leading up to tomorrow's semi's.

If last Saturday's Williams team shows up in Medford tomorrow they can and will beat Tufts. Williams is the ultimate "tease" team due to their height and length, which makes you think some of their players are better than they really are. And, until recently, they were very soft, both defensively and on the boards, content to run their motion offense and hoist up 3's. I give Coach App a lot of credit for making some tough decisions about 3 weeks ago, inserting Greenman and Soto into the starting line-up, but I continue to be bewildered by the lack of playing time for Karpowicz, who is the Ephs best offensive big man and who handles his responsibilities at the top of the key in their motion offense much better than their other big men. But enough of my venting.

I think the key to tomorrow's game is whether Williams can play big and exploit the height advantage that they have at almost every position. This means not only getting the ball down low to their big men but attacking the basket and not settling for quick 3's.  Aronowitz, Casey, Greenman, and Scadlock have to try to drive to the rim and Williams needs to give Karpowicz more playing time so he can attack Madsen, Tufts only experienced big. Kempton does not have the offensive skills or the toughness on the boards to allow Williams to challenge down low (although he had a great 2d half against Amherst defensively), and I would opt for more minutes for Soto and Karpowicz in his place.

The other keys will be whether Williams can play with the same defensive toughness both out front and on the boards that they brought to the Amherst game and whether they can control the tempo and not allow Tufts to make it an up and down game, which Tufts did very well in the first game.

Finally, I believe Coach App needs to shorten his bench and get away from the crazy substitution pattern he has used most of the season, which subs 2-3 guys every 3-4 minutes and never allows anyone to get into a rhythm on either end of the floor.  He subbed much more strategically in the second half of the Amherst game, after subbing like crazy in the first half, and it resulted in his best players being on the floor together more often, with good results.

Would it be asking for too much if I could also request Teal, Aronowitz and Casey hit their open jumpers tomorrow as well?

I think it's either going to be a great (and close) game that will be there for the taking by the Ephs or another Tufts blowout if the Ephs play soft and pretty but without any defensive intensity and commitment. Wiliams is still playing for something, and hopefully that will help, but so too is Tufts as the tournament host.