FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference

Started by admin, August 16, 2005, 05:13:40 AM

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jknezek

It all goes along with my theory that star players generally make lousy coaches. It all comes naturally and easy to them, meaning they didn't have to learn it, so they don't have an ingrained idea of how to teach it. Certainly they can learn to teach, but for the most part, that middling guy who had to think about everything to make the roster one year, then think about everything even more to improve to make the field the next year, then learn and think about even more to become a starter the next year... that's the guy that makes the transition to coach. He didn't have the talent, he had to learn the skills, so he will already have a head start on knowing how to teach them.

Of course it is all relative. The guy that starred in DIII might have been the guy that had to work for it in FCS. And the guy that starred in FCS, might have been the guy that worked for it in FBS. And the pro that barely got off the practice squad, even though he starred in FBS, might become one of the best coaches of all time. So in the end, it's all relative.

Sadly this is the kind of thing that I end up typing in the off-season...

tigerFanAlso2

Jk

Not to worry, you only have seven more months of "off season". I'm sure your post will improve in quality/content somewhere close to August 15th !!!!!!


jknezek

Sure hope so. That was an awful post full of nonsense. +k

tigerFanAlso2

Hansen Ratings predicted for ODAC in 2017 

Total D3 Teams = 238

RMC #47
W&L #66
E&H #94
BC #98
GC #106
HSC #124
SU #133

Damn, I hope he is wrong. More bad news for HSC, Platteville rated #5

HSCTiger fan

2016 preseason predictions had:

WL - 20th
GC - 35th
HSC - 55th  Then I quit looking.  That was enough to show me his predictions (at least the preseason) are worthless.
Hampden Sydney College
ODAC Champions 77, 82, 83, 87, 07, 09, 11, 13, 14
NCAA Playoffs - 77, 07, 09, 10, 11, 13, 14
The "Game" 60 wins and counting...
11/18/2018 Wally referred to me as Chief and admitted "I don't know about that!"

Pat Coleman

Quote from: HSCTiger fan on February 08, 2017, 02:09:12 PM
2016 preseason predictions had:

WL - 20th
GC - 35th
HSC - 55th  Then I quit looking.  That was enough to show me his predictions (at least the preseason) are worthless.

I don't know of too many preseason predictions that knew your top running back would not be returning.
Publisher. Questions? Check our FAQ for D3f, D3h.
Quote from: old 40 on September 25, 2007, 08:23:57 PMLet's discuss (sports) in a positive way, sometimes kidding each other with no disrespect.

jknezek

I'm not a big fan of preseason predictions as HansonRatings and I found out in our discussion at the beginning of last year. Especially in DIII where you don't know what's coming back. It's ok for the really elite teams. They have clear 1st, 2nd, 3rd string that you can see the progression year to year. There just isn't much surprise in the roster. But for the ODAC type teams, or even the vast majority of DIII in general, where people don't always come back or an impact player literally can come from nowhere, it's really hard to do. There's just too many holes that need to be filled every year and almost no way to predict how they will be filled and with what quality. Let alone what happens with injuries. The drop off between the #1 and 2 running backs, and instead having to use the #2 and 3 running backs, let alone the difference at 1 and 2 QB sometimes, is just massive.

Can you do it for the top 10 or 15 teams and be reasonably close? Yes. You can probably do it for the bottom 40 teams as well. Those teams hardly move regardless. But teams 20 through 200? Pretty much impossible to be all that accurate.

tigerFanAlso2

Well, I hope he is wrong for our sake. Projected #124 does not sound so exciting, in fact it sounds awful. 

HSCTiger fan

Quote from: Pat Coleman on February 08, 2017, 04:37:28 PM
Quote from: HSCTiger fan on February 08, 2017, 02:09:12 PM
2016 preseason predictions had:

WL - 20th
GC - 35th
HSC - 55th  Then I quit looking.  That was enough to show me his predictions (at least the preseason) are worthless.

I don't know of too many preseason predictions that knew your top running back would not be returning.

I'm sure the ratings did not consider that.  But that does not explain WL or GC.
Hampden Sydney College
ODAC Champions 77, 82, 83, 87, 07, 09, 11, 13, 14
NCAA Playoffs - 77, 07, 09, 10, 11, 13, 14
The "Game" 60 wins and counting...
11/18/2018 Wally referred to me as Chief and admitted "I don't know about that!"

tigerFanAlso2

both teams got bite by the injury bug; GC was never the same after the RB/Return Man got hurt. He was putting up sick numbers until his season came to unfortunate early ending.

jknezek

W&L just wasn't as good on offense as expected. Whether that was the loss of a lineman or two or not I won't say but I don't think so. Simply put, the expectations were higher for the offense than what was realized, especially given how much experienced and senior leadership returned.

Scots13

Just got caught up with the Farmville Herald-- HSC AD Epperson has stepped down due to personal reasons. Reading through the article, his commitment to HSC is apparent. I hope all is well.

Also, on the subject of HSC, I might be late on this, but did anyone catch the news a few weeks back ex-President Chris Howard is on the CFP committee now?
Where Chilhowee's lofty mountains pierce the southern blue, proudly stands our Alma Mater
NOBLE, GRAND, and TRUE.
TO THE HILL!

tigerFanAlso2

I spoke to Richard Epperson last week and he is fine.

I did hear the Dr. Howard was selected to be on the committee.

HSCTiger fan

Quote from: tigerFanAlso2 on February 09, 2017, 01:23:01 PM
both teams got bite by the injury bug; GC was never the same after the RB/Return Man got hurt. He was putting up sick numbers until his season came to unfortunate early ending.

GC may not be 1-6 in ODAC if they had not lost RB. But to think they were 35th best in preseason proved to be rediculous. The same is true with WL at 20. And HSC at 55.  It's not that I think any of these teams were not capable of being a top 20 team. JK liked RMC in preseason last year. I don't know if he thought they'd win it. But I remember he liked them. I trust a guy like JK more than a guy like Hansen to make accurate ODAC predictions. JK at least keeps up with ODAC on a regular basis. Heck I trust any regular poster more.  Most of us know our team pretty well. Like JK pointed out it's very difficult to make predictions outside the top 20.
Hampden Sydney College
ODAC Champions 77, 82, 83, 87, 07, 09, 11, 13, 14
NCAA Playoffs - 77, 07, 09, 10, 11, 13, 14
The "Game" 60 wins and counting...
11/18/2018 Wally referred to me as Chief and admitted "I don't know about that!"

jknezek

#20429
Quote from: HSCTiger fan on February 12, 2017, 04:23:32 PM
JK liked RMC in preseason last year. I don't know if he thought they'd win it. But I remember he liked them. I trust a guy like JK more than a guy like Hansen to make accurate ODAC predictions. JK at least keeps up with ODAC on a regular basis.

I post a lot. Some of them have to be right.  ;D  Hansen does a good job. It's just a math model. Especially this early in the year it's all based on past years. Most times last year (and the 5 before that) are important, occasionally it's not. Even in the ODAC up until the last 2 years you had more than a decade where you could count on HSC being in the top 2 essentially. You could also almost always count on Catholic being terrible. In a 7 team league you had basically 2 gimmes based on history, so a historical model is going to do real well on balance. Given Guilford was pretty awful until 3 years ago you had either 3 of 7 or 3 of 8. Then Shenandoah was pretty bad, so while Guilford might have tripped up the model, Shenandoah provided a gimme. So it becomes easy to hit the high value best and worst teams (what ruins the model score is when your 1 becomes a 5 or your 6 becomes a 2, not when your 6 becomes a 4), then slot everyone else in essentially low value middle spots, and historical models work well.

But they will never catch the outlier. So 2006 W&L, 2010 W&L, 2014 Guilford (somewhat), 2015 W&L, 2016 RMC to some extent, just a bitch on those models. You'll never catch them because they don't fit history... That being said, it's not like the coaches or anyone else do a great job predicting those outliers either. That's why they are outliers.