D3 Top 25 Fan Poll

Started by usee, October 20, 2010, 04:26:33 PM

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theoriginalupstate

Quote from: seventiesraider on October 21, 2010, 07:37:04 PM
I have to admit it was a time consuming and interesting exercise. I'm sure I agree that keeping the voters a secret isn't necessary since most of us have too big of ego's  to "stay in the closet" . I'm not sure posting all our individual polls would be too smart either, cause then we get into second guessing everyone. I gave a lot of weight to strength of schedule and recent results, so I'm sure mine would ruffle some feathers. And yes there were some undefeated teams that got pushed down to 27 & 28.

yeah I didn't think it was going to be this difficult to differentiate teams from conference to conference and then to take account head to head results, common opponents both in region and out of region, level of competition played and how impressive the victory was...

usee

I have no fear. Here is mine.

1   UWW
2   Wesley
3   Mt Union
4   North Central
5   Wittenberg
6   St Thomas
7   Trine
8   Delaware Valley
9   UMHB
10   Bethel
11   Hardin Simmons
12   Montclair State
13   Ohio Northern
14   Linfield
15   Thomas More
16   St John Fisher
17   Wartburg
18   Wheaton
19   Franklin
20   Ursinus
21   Hampden Syd
22   Coe
23   Wabash
24   Pac Lutheran
25   Case Western

Mr. Ypsi

Quote from: K-Mack on October 21, 2010, 06:33:10 PM
My initial reaction is that this is a cool endeavor, one that will give you guys a lot of insight into what it's like to do this week after week, but that your group of 16 produced a result not all that different from the official group of 25.

I'm not sure what it means, that the more people that vote, the more "righter" the result is, or that we're all victims of groupthink and influence each other into voting the same way.

Mount Union is the clear No. 2. I wouldn't say Wesley was completely outclassed when they played last year -- and I realize this is this year we're talking about -- and I realize this isn't your normal Mount Union team. But history has taught us that Mount Union teams get stronger as the year goes on, and I think they deserve to be the exeption to the re-evaluate-every-week rule until something drastic enough happens to show us they don't belong at No. 2.

That said, after this week, Wesley and MUC will have a common opponent, which is something we don't often have as a tool of comparison.

Also, the 2007 MUC team was definitely the most statistically dominant, and had it beaten UW-W, might have eclipsed 2002 or 1997(?) as the best MUC team ever. Probably another reason stats don't always tell the whole story. And also what made that UWW team one for the ages, because it had another team for the ages to beat.

I don't see what secret balloting accomplishes. I think you guys should list your 16 and openly discuss where you rank teams. That's basically the point, to generate further thinking/discussion, is it not?

I've run the fan poll for basketball for its entire existence (4 years?) - I'm jealous that bleedpurple already has nearly twice the voters that I've ever managed! ;)  (I almost signed up, but don't follow football nearly as obsessively as basketball - for much of the football season I'm still out in my RV!  I'm available if you need another CCIW voter, bp.)

While bball fan poll voters do not routinely post their entire ballots, they have not been shy about revealing 'anomalous' votes (and defending them) - that IS indeed the whole point of the fan poll. :D

If any of you fball voters would like to join in on bball, I'd love to get it up to at least 15 voters a week. ;D

(And, yes, it is rare to have a team more than 2-3 positions different than the 'gold standard' d3hoops.com poll.  We are all following the same stats and commentaries!)

seventiesraider

Alright, bombs away:

Insert your own numbers:


University of Wisconsin Whitewater
University of Mount Union
North Central
Wesley
Saint Thomas
Mary Hardin Baylor
Ohio Northern
Saint John Fisher
Linfield
Delaware Valley
Hardin Simmons
Bethal
Wartburg
Willamette
Wheaton
Montclair
Pacific Lutheran
Cal Lute
Thomas More
Central
Augustana
Cortland St
Trine
Ursinus
Coe
Same as it ever was...same as it ever was...same as it ever was...

bleedpurple

#34
Great Seventies, you just revealed where all 12 of Willamette's points came from!  ;D

K-Mack

Quote from: seventiesraider on October 21, 2010, 07:37:04 PM
I have to admit it was a time consuming and interesting exercise.

I spend about 30 minutes a week on mine, unless it's a fairly straightforward nobody good played each other and/or lost week.
Former author, Around the Nation ('01-'13)
Managing Editor, Kickoff
Voter, Top 25/Play of the Week/Gagliardi Trophy/Liberty Mutual Coach of the Year
Nastradamus, Triple Take
and one of the two voices behind the sonic #d3fb nerdery that is the ATN Podcast.

bleedpurple

Each pollster was asked which conference he or she followed most closely.  Here are the conferences represented among the ballots submitted this week:

WIAC
MIAC
CCIW
E-8
OAC
UAA
NCAC
NJAC
PAC
MIAA

HScoach

Ranking all 25 is tough when there are large groups that are essentially the same.  Not sure who came up with it first (Ryan Tipps??), but I think grouping teams by tiers is more accurate than a true ranking.

I never looked at the D3 poll when I did mine.  Might not be the best opinion out there, but I bet it's the most usual with a Mount guy having the Raiders clear down at #4 ;D.  I've added my reasoning so everyone can shoot holes in my list.  Shoot away:

1.   Whitewater - #1 by a wide margin
2.   North Central - been impresses by their margins of victory
3.   St. Thomas - solid team getting better each year
4.   Mount Union - by week 12 or 13, Mount will probably be #2, but not yet.

5.   Wesley - not overly impressed by them last year.  Solid team, but not enough playmakers to push the big boys
6.   Mary Hardin Baylor - good history and name recognition, but defense is worrisome
7.   Ohio Northern - will be a tough out for anyone in the playoffs due to experience
8.   Wartburg - impressive season so far for a historically average team
9.   Linfield - assume early loss was an aberration
10.   Wheaton - one of the few teams/coaches that LK fears having another good season
11.   Central - last year's playoff run needs repeated to climb higher in my mind
12.   Hardin Simmons - talented offensively, but defense is poor.  Hard team to figure out.
13.   Coe - solid
14.   Delaware Valley - best of the east still not a threat.  Where is Rowan of the 90's when you need them?
15.   Thomas More - firmly entrenched into W&J's spot of being good, but not great
16.   Bethel - could climb in a hurry if they keep winning

17.   Montclair State - not sure what to think of MSU
18.   Wittenberg - very surprising playoff run last year looks like a fluke.  Struggling with some BAD teams
19.   St John Fisher - impressive start, but still have to see more before I believe SJF is a true regional threat
20.   Pacific Lutheran - #20 just felt right for someone I know nothing about
21.   Hampden Sydney -  see Pac Lutheran
22.   Trine - not sold on Trine at all.  I figure they're the '10 version of Mt St Joe?
23.   Case Western Reserve - has improved over the years, but a LONG way away from being more than an afterthought in the North Region
24.   Illinois Wesleyan - I give them a boost due to being competitive in the ultra-tough CCIW
25.   Wabash - Probably could have went somewhere else, but the no one stands out this far down.
I find easily offended people rather offensive!

Statistics are like bikinis; what they reveal is interesting, what they hide is essential.

bleedpurple

Quote from: K-Mack on October 21, 2010, 09:05:10 PM
Quote from: seventiesraider on October 21, 2010, 07:37:04 PM
I have to admit it was a time consuming and interesting exercise.

I spend about 30 minutes a week on mine, unless it's a fairly straightforward nobody good played each other and/or lost week.

Keith,

I'm sure the familiarity and knowledge base you have built up, being sure of the criteria you have developed in ranking, and staying current through all the work you have put in allows for great efficiency in putting together your poll.

I have a couple question for you. How much time do you put in mining "below the surface"? In other words, how much time do you look at numbers 26-40 (or whatever number is applicable)? Also, for your personal records, do you actually rank below the top 25 for your personal records? I would think it would be helpful to continue to deepen your analysis a bit in case Saturday is one of those "any given Saturdays".

Pat Coleman

Quote from: HScoach on October 21, 2010, 09:20:27 PM
Ranking all 25 is tough when there are large groups that are essentially the same.  Not sure who came up with it first (Ryan Tipps??), but I think grouping teams by tiers is more accurate than a true ranking.

Gordon Mann talked about this concept during the playoffs last year, maybe the year before. He might have been the first.
Publisher. Questions? Check our FAQ for D3f, D3h.
Quote from: old 40 on September 25, 2007, 08:23:57 PMLet's discuss (sports) in a positive way, sometimes kidding each other with no disrespect.

Old IC Voice

Here's mine (thanks to bleedpurple for sending it back to me via PM when I forgot to save it in my outbox!)...

1) UW-Whitewater
2) Mount Union
3) Wesley
4) North Central
5) St. Thomas
6) Wittenberg
7) Thomas More
8) Mary Hardin-Baylor
9) Wartburg
10) Delaware Valley
11) Montclair State
12) Hardin-Simmons
13) Ohio Northern
14) Pacific Lutheran
15) St. John Fisher
16) Trine
17) Wheaton
18) Bethel
19) Hampden-Sydney
20) Cal Lutheran
21) Coe
22) Rowan
23) Central
24) Linfield
25) Ursinus

I'll readily admit I probably stiffed Linfield, but I feel like they've got something to prove this week, and if they lose to a very solid Pacific Lutheran team (who topped the Cal Lutheran team that BEAT them), they could conceivably be the third-best team in the conference.

seventiesraider

Quote from: bleedpurple on October 21, 2010, 08:42:51 PM
Great Seventies, you just revealed where al 12 of Willamette's points came from!  ;D

Or more importantly, totally skunked the NCAC and UAA.
Same as it ever was...same as it ever was...same as it ever was...

K-Mack

Quote from: Pat Coleman on October 21, 2010, 09:29:48 PM
Quote from: HScoach on October 21, 2010, 09:20:27 PM
Ranking all 25 is tough when there are large groups that are essentially the same.  Not sure who came up with it first (Ryan Tipps??), but I think grouping teams by tiers is more accurate than a true ranking.

Gordon Mann talked about this concept during the playoffs last year, maybe the year before. He might have been the first.

It was Gordon, but I think it was more than a year ago. I think it was a board post that we could probably search down.

Tiers probably are more functional/useful than a top 25 for our purposes, since the criteria were like legit championship threat (MUC)/elite team that will lose to a lower team once in a while (Linfield)/team that has good season every so often & maybe could win a playoff game.
Former author, Around the Nation ('01-'13)
Managing Editor, Kickoff
Voter, Top 25/Play of the Week/Gagliardi Trophy/Liberty Mutual Coach of the Year
Nastradamus, Triple Take
and one of the two voices behind the sonic #d3fb nerdery that is the ATN Podcast.

02 Warhawk

My D3 poll:
UWW
Mount Union
Wesley (still not at the same level as UWW and Mount)
St. Thomas
North Central (i like the CCIW this year)
MHB
Wittenberg
Linfield (totally different team from their opening game)
Harden Simmons
D. Valley (never been high on teams from the East...sorry)
Thomas More
Trine
Ohio Northern
Wheaton (see North Central)
Wartburg
Montclair St.
Coe
Central
Bethel
St. John Fisher
Hampden-Sydney
Pacific Lutheran
Cal Lutheran
Ursinus
Case Western Reserve

For what it's worth...Wabash was 26th   :-[

jam40jeff

Quote from: seventiesraider on October 21, 2010, 09:59:46 PM
Quote from: bleedpurple on October 21, 2010, 08:42:51 PM
Great Seventies, you just revealed where al 12 of Willamette's points came from!  ;D

Or more importantly, totally skunked the NCAC and UAA.

If you're going to get all dramatic and completely drop Wittenburg out of the poll for "non-impressive wins" (I agree they aren't Top 10, but not Top 25?), shouldn't you have also dinged Mount Union significantly for struggling against the always pitiful Marietta?