BB: D3 MLB Draft projections, picks and free-agent signings

Started by AlleyCat, May 29, 2008, 10:12:17 AM

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infielddad

Quote from: OshDude on June 03, 2009, 05:34:30 AM
Quote from: DSKSlugger on June 03, 2009, 02:57:59 AM
Wow! great work. Can you say which of those players has a video available?
Bronson was the only one I saw with video (33 seconds).
Here's my list (another freebie, fellas), with links to stats. Add any I missed.
Avery, Cortland
Birdwell, Whitworth
Blanco, Cortland
Bronson, Trinity (TX)
Dott, Whitewater
Giovenco, North Park
Grant, Lynchburg
Helms, UT-Tyler
Holland, UT-Tyler
Johnson, Concordia (TX)
Laganosky, Haverford
Nolan, Kean
O'Hara, Rowan
Shelton, LaGrange
Tone, Cortland
Toth, TCNJ
Whiteman, Muskingum
Whitenack, Old Westbury

My understanding is these are the players for whom the MLB scouting bureau has filed a report so that the player has been assigned a number to be included in the draft.
This summary does not include players scouted by individual teams where the report and draft number has been assigned at the request of the team.  In general, there is considerable duplication, but teams do indeed scout players that are missed by MLB's scouting bureau.
There are also players scouted who do not have a report filed and number assigned for the draft.  Players can only be drafted if their name has been provided to MLB and a draft number assigned by MLB.

DSKSlugger

Yes the MLB scouting bureau does miss a lot of players. And Baseball America's draft map and state by state prospects lists include several players that no organizations are considering in the draft.

I think the sox took an arm in the 4th round last year that wasn't on a single list and they paid him 1 mil.

I would not be surprised if we don't start seeing D3 guys go till about rd 25, even with my earlier post with Tone and Angeloni - they could potentially start us off in the mid 20s.

The fact is that D3 players are low profile sr. signees. Does anyone out there know any players that might have a large profile (summer success and or heavily scouted juniors)?

infielddad

"Yes the MLB scouting bureau does miss a lot of players. And Baseball America's draft map and state by state prospects lists include several players that no organizations are considering in the draft.

I think the sox took an arm in the 4th round last year that wasn't on a single list and they paid him 1 mil. "

DSK,  Wouldn't that player have been on some draft list for the scouting bureau or  team?
In order to be drafted, the players name must be submitted to MLB in advance of the draft and the player must be assigned a draft number, even if he isn't drafted.
Baseball America would not be submitting names to MLB.  I am confused when you say that 4th rounder was not on a single list.  He had to be on some list and had his name submitted in advance.  He could not have been drafted based on Baseball America listing him. Also, since the complete draft list isn't available anywhere, to my knowledge, I am uncertain why you would say the player was not on a single draft list when only someone in MLB would likely have access to the entire list...unless that is you! ;)

Jim Dixon

Quote from: DSKSlugger on June 04, 2009, 02:22:43 PM

I would not be surprised if we don't start seeing D3 guys go till about rd 25, even with my earlier post with Tone and Angeloni - they could potentially start us off in the mid 20s.


I would not be surprised to see D-III players shut out in the first day but expect someone taken well before the 25th round.  I think only the first 7-10 rounds are done on the first day.

DSKSlugger

Quote from: infielddad on June 04, 2009, 03:08:36 PM
"Yes the MLB scouting bureau does miss a lot of players. And Baseball America's draft map and state by state prospects lists include several players that no organizations are considering in the draft.

I think the sox took an arm in the 4th round last year that wasn't on a single list and they paid him 1 mil. "

DSK,  Wouldn't that player have been on some draft list for the scouting bureau or  team?
In order to be drafted, the players name must be submitted to MLB in advance of the draft and the player must be assigned a draft number, even if he isn't drafted.
Baseball America would not be submitting names to MLB.  I am confused when you say that 4th rounder was not on a single list.  He had to be on some list and had his name submitted in advance.  He could not have been drafted based on Baseball America listing him. Also, since the complete draft list isn't available anywhere, to my knowledge, I am uncertain why you would say the player was not on a single draft list when only someone in MLB would likely have access to the entire list...unless that is you! ;)


I was simply regurgitating a conversation i had with a sox scout today. I asked about the lack of some prospects that i know of in the MLB.com draft database and baseball america's lists. He responded with the anecdote of thier 4th rd draft pick who he said, "was on nobodies list and we signed im for 1 mil." He was giving me the impression that there are many holes in those databases not only for d3 prospects but also top round talent. What i mean by nobodies list is that no scouts put that players name in for the draft. Whether bird dog, area scout, or higher, no teams decided that this specific pitcher was going to be one of the names they would bring up in meetings as someone they should take at any point. That being said it makes sense that the sox had a report on this guy and they simply must have provided his name for the mlb. But again, he was on no one lses list - to be vague once again  :D

Jim,
sure, and of course that would be consistent with historical drafts and d3 players aside from the outliers like Zimmerman. Am i right to say that we usually see a name we recognize in about the 16th or 17th rd.

I believe these are your own updates from last year...

506. Frank Pfister, Emory by Cincinnati (17)
643. Adan Frost, St, Norbert by Detroit (21)
738. Nelson Gomez, Keystone by Arizona (24)
782. Shane Wolf, Ithaca by Houston (26)
699. Chick Huggins, UCSB by Toronto (23) - played at Trinty (Texas)
829. Tm Kiely, Trinity (Conn) by Arizona (27)

Notice Kiley taken later than expected in my book b/c he was simply dominant with that unbelievable statistic of only 1 walk (i think) leading to the world series and a 90mph fb to boot.

The polls have spoken and people think Bayer will be the first out of the box, but i equate Bayer and Kiley as having equally impressive and dominant seasons statistically yet i give Kiley the edge due to his MLB FB. So i caution anyone putting their money on the fact that Bayer would go higher than Kiley went last year b/c i think scouts told us how much they way dominant D3 #s in the decision process by letting Kiley hang around till the 27th.

Note again, Kiley did have Tjs his soph yr so he may have been higher on peoples boards sans an injury - he also through several times at Fenway for Boston leading up to the draft according to an article put out by his highschool. I just don't see Bayer that high stuff wise nor do i see him impressing too many in pre draft workouts. He is at his best getting batters out and pitching intelligently, not throwing in front scouts on guns. I think his #s and dominance will get him a shot, a late round shot.

infielddad

DSK,
One thing about scouts is they can be great story tellers and great at keeping the draft seem like a complete mystery, when they want to do that.
When our son was a DIII college junior/senior, I met and got to be in regular contact with a very well known and prominent scout on the West Coast.
When I asked Doug about the chances for a DIII kid to fall under the MLB radar for the draft, he laughed.
Doug's specific words were to the effect that scouts for MLB teams get paid to find the talent and if they don't, they get fired!!  Even though our son was in Texas, Doug assured me that even if the MLB bureau missed him, if he can play and was projectible, MLB team scouts would find him. 
It turned out Doug was correct.  For mid-week games, there were as many as 10-12 scouts/cross-checkers and almost always 1 or 2 present for an inning or two on weekends.
While there could be exceptions, the idea that every scout in an area, but one, missed a talent that went as high as the 4th round and got $1,000,000 means, in Doug's words, a lot of guys didn't do their job and should get fired. It could also be a scout telling that story, again. ;D

DSKSlugger

Well said. But i would be cautious in claiming that D3 players who can play and are projectable don't fly beneath the radar. Sounds like your son was very successful and fortunate, and no doubt he benefited from having a great baseball dad ;) But the simple fact is that i have seen plenty of players fly under the radar, and some of them were just scratching the surface of their potential. There have been too many D3 heartbreaks in my opinion, and i have watched many great players miss their opportunity largely b/c they are D3.

infielddad

DSK,
Dad didn't do anything except get in the way. ;D
Our son had a college coach that got him in the NECBL where he showed the level at which he could play.
The coach also started calling scouts the first Fall of his freshman year and arranging for all types of exposure.
Finally, he coached our son daily to be better and never accept that he could not get better.  To the credit of our son, he believed his coach, believed in himself and worked harder than I could ever imagine...and got better every day.
With all that said, after his junior year, he played in Newport and finished 2nd in hitting in the NECBL.  The scouts who saw him before and after noticed huge changes in his hand speed, confidence and aggressiveness and that gave some of them the assurance he still had considerable upside, which he proved after he got drafted.
I have no  doubt that some players get missed.  The system isn't perfect by any means.
I also know there are many players, very good players to the eyes of all of us, who do get scouted and don't get drafted.  Heck, I know for our son about 1/2 the scouts focused on why he couldn't succeed and the other half focused on why he could.
If players only have scouts seeing them who focus on what they can't do, which can be very easy at the DIII level, they surely won' get drafted. You need just one to see the upside and have the respect and credibility in his organization to sell the players he scouts to a group who trust the talent judgements and make the draft decisions.


OshDude

Quote from: DSKSlugger on June 04, 2009, 02:22:43 PM
The fact is that D3 players are low profile sr. signees. Does anyone out there know any players that might have a large profile (summer success and or heavily scouted juniors)?
I think Dott has a good chance of being that guy. Junior LHPs with his size and his potential stuff are usually gold. Plus, he's had plenty of success in the Northwoods League. If his offspeed stuff projects in scouts' minds, I wouldn't be surprised if Dott is the first D3 player selected.

DSKSlugger

Long day, heading to virginia for an 18U tourny...

Thats interesting, i would say more likely he is like bronson, drafted as a jr late - returns for sr. year and will get drafted again. we will see tho  ;)

What do people think about Zeb Engle? Great stuff, great kid, deserves a chance...

Who are the best D3 hitters going into the draft?

regent1

Best hitters?  Drew Hedman, Pomona Pitzer, d3 player of the year, ABCA co player of the year

DSKSlugger

You hit the ball out of the park with that one!
How did i miss him?

Well of course i am looking for some other hitters who also had big years and summer success last year. I've been scanning the summer baseball blogs and trying to do some research but i wanted to open up this board to more discussion of hitters despite the fact that 60% of those drafted will be pitchers.

baseballer88

Can someone post the Baseball America state report for Illinois???

BaseballFan

Quote from: OshDude on June 04, 2009, 09:28:50 PM
Quote from: DSKSlugger on June 04, 2009, 02:22:43 PM
The fact is that D3 players are low profile sr. signees. Does anyone out there know any players that might have a large profile (summer success and or heavily scouted juniors)?
I think Dott has a good chance of being that guy. Junior LHPs with his size and his potential stuff are usually gold. Plus, he's had plenty of success in the Northwoods League. If his offspeed stuff projects in scouts' minds, I wouldn't be surprised if Dott is the first D3 player selected.

Adian Kummet is another guy to look out for that was consistently 91 at the Royals workout last week and can top 94. Has a couple teams really looking hard at him. Also, had success in the Northwoods league.