BB: USAC: USA South Athletic Conference

Started by narch, December 30, 2005, 10:58:27 PM

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Catfishncwc

Each year the draft is a funny thing.  Once you get outside the 1st 10 rounds lots of funny things happen.  Kids getting drafted higher than I had them rated and kids not getting drafted at all who I had pegged for rounds 20-30.   The MLB draft is nothing like the NFL or NBA those kids drafted go straight to the big club.  Once a player is drafted by a MLB club you have Rookie Ball,Short Season A, Low Level A, High A, Double A and Triple A.  That is a lot of development time and many injuries that can prevent players making it all the way. 
The 1st player I scouted was Justin Verlander and I remember writing in my Notebook at the end ""Either going to be a Hall of Famer or a bust" Their were games he could locate his  FB or Curve or both at the same time.  But if you look at him now he has great location and command and is the best pitcher in the majors today. 
Again being a former D3 and small school Juco player myself I go out of my way to see as many D3 games as I can, but I can't make players better than they are.  If I send a report to my Scout Supervisor to see someone I gotta make sure it is worth his time.  You have a 100 or so days in the Spring to see players and every game counts so yes players may go unseen, but it is not like you hear stories about players with 3rd round talent going undrafted because no one was able to go out and see them.  Players going undrafted are what we call fringe prospects and some of these fall between the cracks since it takes about 2-3 scouts to see a player before they are drafted. 
1999 Division 3 National Baseball Champs

108 Stitches

Great insightful stuff Catfish thanks.

Spence

Did you see Verlander when he was in high school or college?

He seems like a good example of a guy that did make a big improvement the likes of which you say is, well I'll be kind and say unlikely. He gained 5 mph by switching lifting regimens while in college.

Undrafted as a high school senior to #2 pick as a college junior. Could have got him for cheap out of high school but no one noticed him. It's not like he was mediocre in high school.

Catfishncwc

Quote from: Spence on April 18, 2013, 09:13:46 PM
Did you see Verlander when he was in high school or college?

He seems like a good example of a guy that did make a big improvement the likes of which you say is, well I'll be kind and say unlikely. He gained 5 mph by switching lifting regimens while in college.

Undrafted as a high school senior to #2 pick as a college junior. Could have got him for cheap out of high school but no one noticed him. It's not like he was mediocre in high school.
Lets not forget that Verlander was not healthy his senior year in HS because of some illness (can't remember what it was) and barely had any strength his senior year to garner a real FB.  He then gets to ODU and gains more and more MPH's by getting back that strength he had lost before. 
1999 Division 3 National Baseball Champs

Spence

So I guess college coaches had a better eye for talent than the scouts.

He was a low 90s guy before he got sick...what did the scouts think, that he was never gonna get well? That he was gonna die from strep? Crazy.

From his ODU profile.
HIGH SCHOOL: One of the top two high school pitchers in the entire Mid Atlantic Region...0.38 earned run average with 144 strikeouts in 72 innints...All-Metro and All-Region selection

Not sure how you miss a guy like that. He was pretty much an instant success at ODU too.

I don't find it very impressive to watch Verlander as a college junior and say "hrm, this guy might be pretty good." He went #2 in the draft...obviously anyone could see that by that time.

Unless you knew for 100% certain he wasn't gonna sign, seems like someone should have taken a shot on him.

Catfishncwc

Spence,
With your vast knowledge of Scouting why are you not a Scouting Director.  You seem to have this thing all figured out and the 450+ Full Time scouts currently just can seem to get it right like you.  You would be a real asset to a team.   
1999 Division 3 National Baseball Champs

Spence

Quote from: Catfishncwc on April 19, 2013, 11:29:13 AM
Spence,
With your vast knowledge of Scouting why are you not a Scouting Director.  You seem to have this thing all figured out and the 450+ Full Time scouts currently just can seem to get it right like you.  You would be a real asset to a team.

There's a difference between being able to do a job and being able to get a job. Takes knowing the right people.

Plus, I'd rather work on the business side of things if I was going to work for a baseball team.

As cheap as they are, it's surprising that teams don't have more scouts.

Boysofsummer21

Catfish - Thanks for all the great info. For my uninformed point of view I find it very interesting.

So with this string going on would you say;
Chrismon (CNU P) - shot at draft
Fleischmann (CNU P Closer) - any shot at Indy?
Swatrout (NCW P) - any shout at Indy?
Welker (Ferrum C) - any shot at indy?
Alexander (NCW Inf) - any shot at Indy?

And how about Kirks at Averett? any thoughts? Figure Chrismon will go next year and then Taylor may be closer.

Thoughts?

Catfishncwc

Quote from: Boysofsummer21 on April 19, 2013, 11:49:27 AM
Catfish - Thanks for all the great info. For my uninformed point of view I find it very interesting.

So with this string going on would you say;
Chrismon (CNU P) - shot at draft
Fleischmann (CNU P Closer) - any shot at Indy?
Swatrout (NCW P) - any shout at Indy?
Welker (Ferrum C) - any shot at indy?
Alexander (NCW Inf) - any shot at Indy?

And how about Kirks at Averett? any thoughts? Figure Chrismon will go next year and then Taylor may be closer.

Thoughts?

I think Chrismon has a shot, but I don't think it is going to happen this year, but it only takes one team to like you to draft you.  People also mention that him being drafted in HS helps but showing lesser stuff and a couple less MPH's on the fastball hurts because it shows a regression.  If he comes back next year and gets himself in top condition and gains back those MPH's on the fastball he had lost from HS I think he will be a real prospect. 
The other players all have real shots at Indy ball, but Indy ball is about your name and talent out to those leagues and teams.  They have many tryouts and I would suggest they go to as many open Indy League tryouts as they can.  They have the talent it is just letting them see that talent. 
1999 Division 3 National Baseball Champs

Catfishncwc

Quote from: Spence on April 19, 2013, 11:39:49 AM
Quote from: Catfishncwc on April 19, 2013, 11:29:13 AM
Spence,
With your vast knowledge of Scouting why are you not a Scouting Director.  You seem to have this thing all figured out and the 450+ Full Time scouts currently just can seem to get it right like you.  You would be a real asset to a team.


As cheap as they are, it's surprising that teams don't have more scouts.

Scouts are not cheap.  Besides the Salary they receive and % of signing bonus.  The team pays for the Scouts car, gas, food, lodging and many other expenses.  It really adds up.  That is why mostly all teams have a Associate Scouting(Like myself) program.  They only pay a Associate when someone they discover is later drafted or signed by the team.  But for a Full Time Scout Supervisor expenses add up really quickly so the notion that scouts are cheap is wrong. 
1999 Division 3 National Baseball Champs

Spence

Quote from: Catfishncwc on April 19, 2013, 12:11:17 PM
Quote from: Spence on April 19, 2013, 11:39:49 AM
Quote from: Catfishncwc on April 19, 2013, 11:29:13 AM
Spence,
With your vast knowledge of Scouting why are you not a Scouting Director.  You seem to have this thing all figured out and the 450+ Full Time scouts currently just can seem to get it right like you.  You would be a real asset to a team.


As cheap as they are, it's surprising that teams don't have more scouts.

Scouts are not cheap.  Besides the Salary they receive and % of signing bonus.  The team pays for the Scouts car, gas, food, lodging and many other expenses.  It really adds up.  That is why mostly all teams have a Associate Scouting(Like myself) program.  They only pay a Associate when someone they discover is later drafted or signed by the team.  But for a Full Time Scout Supervisor expenses add up really quickly so the notion that scouts are cheap is wrong.

Relatively speaking, IMO they are. And 450 in the whole country is only like 15-20 per team, give or take. Seems pretty sparse to me. Obviously the associate program is cheap, cheap, cheap, but of widely varying use and quality. Like I say, I think for some people it's just something to have on a business card. Others, not so much.

Catfishncwc

Boys of Summer, I did not see Kirks so I am not sure about his prospects. 
1999 Division 3 National Baseball Champs

Boysofsummer21

Yea I would say he is border line Indy, but that is me. I just find it interesting to watch as I am rooting for all the players in USA South. I am also the voice for the releivers as I was a releiver a long time ago so I stick up for my boys! That is why I do not understand why Fleishman (broke every conference record etc and has very good numbers) doesn't even get a look but I do realize that you guys have to prirotize your time to see all you need to and a D3 closer is definitely not on the list. But hey I will still do my lobbying and have a couple nice arms come along in others bullpens to work you over on in the coming years. SO just roll your eyes and ignore us releivers because as you know we are an odd bunch!! Thanks for all the info as we do not really get an insight into this kind of stuff!

108 Stitches

Quote
There's a difference between being able to do a job and being able to get a job. Takes knowing the right people.

As cheap as they are, it's surprising that teams don't have more scouts.

1. Any organization will hire someone who can demonstrate superior skills. A blow hard on a bulletin board is just that.

2. Scouts are paid to find the few that have the skills to differentiate themselves at the highest level. It is an incredibly difficult job given the statistics in baseball. The few that I know are on the road 180-240 days a year and I would imagine the cost to an organization is significantly more than their salary.

I really appreciate your insight Catfish.

Spence

Quote from: 108 Stitches on April 19, 2013, 11:16:52 PM
Quote
There's a difference between being able to do a job and being able to get a job. Takes knowing the right people.

As cheap as they are, it's surprising that teams don't have more scouts.

1. Any organization will hire someone who can demonstrate superior skills. A blow hard on a bulletin board is just that.


Do you really think that contacts don't make a difference? Why do you think GMs draft their relatives (as happened in D-III a couple years back)?