Future of Division III

Started by Ralph Turner, October 10, 2005, 07:27:51 PM

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Ron Boerger

Quote from: Gregory Sager on July 25, 2020, 03:20:03 PM
Thanks for pulling them out and listing them here, Griz. Could you edit the list by differentiating by state the schools that share a name with other D3 schools, though?

I'm looking at the list and I see Westminster, Trinity, Wheaton, and St. Joseph that fall into that category, and there may be others.

The Trinity is Trinity College; Trinity U is regional, not national which is where the author started.

Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)

It would be interesting to know the methodology of that list. It seems awfully random. Smith has a $2B endowment. Hard to believe they can't weather this. Yeshiva has money, too, and the support of a giant religious community. Obviously, we're going to lose lot of schools, but I wouldn't trust this list.
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OzJohnnie

The Oxford Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine published another interesting report on Thursday.  This time on masks.  I'll let them speak for themselves.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/masking-lack-of-evidence-with-politics/

Quote
The increasing polarised and politicised views on whether to wear masks in public during the current COVID-19 crisis hides a bitter truth on the state of contemporary research and the value we pose on clinical evidence to guide our decisions.

Quote
Despite the clear requirement to carry out further large, pragmatic trials a decade later, only six had been published: five in healthcare workers and one in pilgrims. 3 This recent crop of trials added 9,112 participants to the total randomised denominator of 13,259 and showed that masks alone have no significant effect in interrupting the spread of ILI or influenza in the general population, nor in healthcare workers.

Quote
Many countries have gone onto mandate masks for the public in various settings. Several others  – Denmark, and Norway – generally do not.  Norway’s Institute for Public Health reported that if masks did work then any difference in infection rates would be small when infection rates are low: assuming 20% asymptomatics and a risk reduction of 40% for wearing masks, 200 000 people would need to wear one to prevent one new infection per week.

Quote
We consider it is unwise to infer causation based on regional geographical observations as several proponents of masks have done. Spikes in cases can easily refute correlations, compliance with masks and other measures is often variable, and confounders cannot be accounted for in such observational research.   
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Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)

#2733
This isn't tracking exactly the same thing, but it has a summary of the science behind current mask mandates.  https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/417906/still-confused-about-masks-heres-science-behind-how-face-masks-prevent

Makes are really only effective for infected people, so in an instance like the Colby protocol, where the whole population is being treated frequently, masks would be less important, but they're still not a bad failsafe. I can't find it now, but I saw one report from Europe that found (actual data in a limited setting, not a traditional replicable scientific study) that makes reduced the chances of infection in a crowd from 27% to 3%. I believe that's just based on droplets caught by the mask, but it's not nothing.
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Gregory Sager

Quote from: Ron Boerger on July 25, 2020, 04:43:58 PM
Quote from: Gregory Sager on July 25, 2020, 03:20:03 PM
Thanks for pulling them out and listing them here, Griz. Could you edit the list by differentiating by state the schools that share a name with other D3 schools, though?

I'm looking at the list and I see Westminster, Trinity, Wheaton, and St. Joseph that fall into that category, and there may be others.

The Trinity is Trinity College; Trinity U is regional, not national which is where the author started.

I know that. I've looked at the list. Anyone could look these up via the link and figure out which Trinity, and which Wheaton, and which Westminster, and which St. Joe, are named, but that's not the point. The point is that, if you're going to make a list like this as a quick reference for everybody, make it as clear as possible to which schools you're referring.

(And I don't want this to make it sound like I'm ungrateful to Griz for his work in putting the list together, because that's the opposite of my intention.)
"To see what is in front of one's nose is a constant struggle." -- George Orwell

FCGrizzliesGrad

Quote from: Gregory Sager on July 26, 2020, 10:32:24 AM
Quote from: Ron Boerger on July 25, 2020, 04:43:58 PM
Quote from: Gregory Sager on July 25, 2020, 03:20:03 PM
Thanks for pulling them out and listing them here, Griz. Could you edit the list by differentiating by state the schools that share a name with other D3 schools, though?

I'm looking at the list and I see Westminster, Trinity, Wheaton, and St. Joseph that fall into that category, and there may be others.

The Trinity is Trinity College; Trinity U is regional, not national which is where the author started.

I know that. I've looked at the list. Anyone could look these up via the link and figure out which Trinity, and which Wheaton, and which Westminster, and which St. Joe, are named, but that's not the point. The point is that, if you're going to make a list like this as a quick reference for everybody, make it as clear as possible to which schools you're referring.

(And I don't want this to make it sound like I'm ungrateful to Griz for his work in putting the list together, because that's the opposite of my intention.)
It was a valid request. I was just copying and pasting the schools while the state was in a different column.
It'd easier if schools would just avoid sharing names. Do it like usernames... Wheaton and Wheaton2, Westminster and xXWestminsterXx02 :D
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OzJohnnie

Quote from: Ralph Turner on July 25, 2020, 03:40:25 AM
Clark University, Mount Holyoke College, UMass Boston and Dartmouth are most likely to 'perish,' according to new analysis

Lots of D3 names mentioned in a blog post by Scott Galloway, a NYU Marketing professor.  He categorized 436 US News & World Report Colleges according to Thrive- Survive- Struggle- Perish.

https://www.masslive.com/news/2020/07/clark-university-mount-holyoke-college-umass-boston-and-dartmouth-are-most-likely-to-perish-according-to-new-analysis.html

This is a funny article: a) the virus will kill everyone, b) the federal gov't should pay to keep universities afloat.

His two-by-two is dimensioned by "value" and "vulnerability" but could just as easily be labeled "endowment" and "online status".  If a school has a big endowment and has announced off-line then they are "thrive".  Big endowment and in-person?  Struggle.  Online and small endowment?  Survive.

The paper says the data hasn't been peer reviewed.  The data?  What about the rating methodology?  He shows no reason to believe it's valid or tested at all.  Bethel will go out of business?  I rate the odds of Bethel losing their constituency in the same range as Hell freezing over.
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OzJohnnie

Quote from: OzJohnnie on July 18, 2020, 02:04:20 AM
In this post from July 1st I linked to the data on Texas hospital capacity.  We can take a look at what it said then and compare it to what it says now to see what is actually happening.

Then:

Quote from: OzJohnnie on July 01, 2020, 09:19:20 AM
https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0d8bdf9be927459d9cb11b9eaef6101f

Data from the TX dept of health and human services.

RE: Texas.  You'll need to click around the visualization to find the numbers but there are 55.3k hospital beds in TX, of which 41.5k are occupied (75% capacity).  Of those 41.5k bedded patients, 6.5k are with CV (12% of capacity and 16% of demand).  1.4k ICU beds and 5.5k ventilators remained unused.  So it appears that in TX, at least, the covid outbreak can get three times worse before TX must start using additional capacity facilities.

Now:

There are 56.7k beds in Texas of which 46.2k are occupied (81% capacity).  Of those 46.2k bedded patients, 10.6k are CV positive (19% of capacity and 23% of demand) [we can infer from the totals that non-CV hospital demand has remained stable over this period at 35k-36k beds instead of declining as you intimate].  900 ICU beds and and 5.2k ventilators remain unused.

So has TX reached a point where the must start adding extra capacity?  It appears they are not even close to that point.  But where did the extra 1.4k beds come from?  I suspect they have been made available in the Dallas and Houston areas of the state which are running closer to 85% capacity (84% in Dallas and 88% in Houston).

And today?

There are 55k beds in Texas of which 43.6k are occupied (a decrease of 2.6k or almost a 5% reduction in demand in the last 9 days.  Of those 43.6k bedded patients, 10.1k are CV positive (again, an almost 5% reduction in nine days).  Non CV hospitalisation is at 33.5k, also a little less.  1.2k ICU beds remain unused (a 33% increase in capacity) along with 5.5k ventilators (a near 6% increase in capacity).  Dallas runs at 86% capacity and Houston at 82% capacity.

As it has all month, Texas looks fine in dealing with the challenges of the virus.
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Gregory Sager

Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on July 26, 2020, 01:00:46 PM
Quote from: Gregory Sager on July 26, 2020, 10:32:24 AM
Quote from: Ron Boerger on July 25, 2020, 04:43:58 PM
Quote from: Gregory Sager on July 25, 2020, 03:20:03 PM
Thanks for pulling them out and listing them here, Griz. Could you edit the list by differentiating by state the schools that share a name with other D3 schools, though?

I'm looking at the list and I see Westminster, Trinity, Wheaton, and St. Joseph that fall into that category, and there may be others.

The Trinity is Trinity College; Trinity U is regional, not national which is where the author started.

I know that. I've looked at the list. Anyone could look these up via the link and figure out which Trinity, and which Wheaton, and which Westminster, and which St. Joe, are named, but that's not the point. The point is that, if you're going to make a list like this as a quick reference for everybody, make it as clear as possible to which schools you're referring.

(And I don't want this to make it sound like I'm ungrateful to Griz for his work in putting the list together, because that's the opposite of my intention.)
It was a valid request. I was just copying and pasting the schools while the state was in a different column.
It'd easier if schools would just avoid sharing names. Do it like usernames... Wheaton and Wheaton2, Westminster and xXWestminsterXx02 :D

Maybe have some sort of multi-sport playoff to determine who gets to keep the name, and who has to change it to something else.

Those are some big stakes. Heck, I'd pay to see those contests on a livestream.
"To see what is in front of one's nose is a constant struggle." -- George Orwell

fantastic50

Regarding the Galloway blog post, I found the methodology for the vulnerability level to be shoddy. 

Per-capita endowment percentile makes sense, as it is a measure of financial resources.  However, that is equally weighted with percentile of international student percentage, i.e. what percentage of colleges/universities have a lower percentage of internationals than this one. The latter leads to some near-elite SLACs with 10-20% internationals (Oberlin, Kenyon, Macalester, etc.) being predicted to "perish."  At the same time, any institution that is almost exclusively domestic students (1-2% internationals) gets a very good score.  Because of that, already-shaky institutions with very few internationals are predicted to only "struggle" even if they have a small endowment.  Also, the use of sticker-price (rather than "net") tuition seems odd, when comparing public & private institutions with very different pricing models.  It seems to me that St. Lawrence or Skidmore can replace their international students a lot more easily than (insert mediocre regional SLAC with declining enrollment) can overcome a lack of market appeal and financial reserves.

OzJohnnie

Wait, what's this?  It can't be so!  Sweden, who approached this pandemic with the time-tested approach to every pandemic ever, is on the downward slope when the rest of Europe who decided to pursue a previously untested approach of trying to shut whole countries down is rebounding as the virus gains steam again?  How can that possibly be?  Surely there is no lesson to be learned here about arrogance, panic and intellectual overconfidence.



It would be funny if it weren't sad how little introspection and intellectual rigour the panic! crowd applied to this known scenario.
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Pat Coleman

It does indeed look as though Sweden is finally getting out of its first wave, so ... yeah.
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jamtod

Meanwhile, in America, we are further from getting under the epidemic threshold classification than we were when last discussed.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html

QuoteBased on death certificate data, the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia, influenza or COVID-19 (PIC) increased from week 26 – week 28 (June 27 – July 11) for the first time since mid-April. The percentage for week 29 is 9.1% and currently lower than the percentage during week 28 (11.5%); however,the percentage remains above the epidemic threshold. These percentages will likely change as more death certificates are processed.

Oline89

Quote from: OzJohnnie on July 29, 2020, 06:58:04 PM
Wait, what's this?  It can't be so!  Sweden, who approached this pandemic with the time-tested approach to every pandemic ever, is on the downward slope when the rest of Europe who decided to pursue a previously untested approach of trying to shut whole countries down is rebounding as the virus gains steam again?  How can that possibly be?  Surely there is no lesson to be learned here about arrogance, panic and intellectual overconfidence.



It would be funny if it weren't sad how little introspection and intellectual rigour the panic! crowd applied to this known scenario.

Sweden really does act as a very interesting case study.  The country is very similar to Pennsylvania in population and urban environment, 12.7 million/10.23 million.  Philly, Pittsburgh, Lehigh Valley/ Stockholm, Malmo, Gothenburg.  Total deaths: Sweden, 5730; PA, 7212.  Both regions are past the spike and have now gained better control of the spread.  The big difference is that Sweden did not shut down their economy, they allowed kids to stay in school and they protected their at risk population (isolated the elderly, N95 masks on high risk population). 

Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)

If you're talking just death toll, advanced warning has been the difference. Keeping nursing homes closed up has kept death numbers a lot lower than infections in places with late surges. In Delaware, something like 80% of our deaths were nursing home residents and the vast majority of those happened in March or April. I did hear recently though they think as much as 75 or 80% of the total US population has yet to be exposed. That's my real interest with Sweden's plan. Were they able to have more people exposed and thus prevent or limit later spikes. I imagine only the next few months will tell.
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