Future of Division III

Started by Ralph Turner, October 10, 2005, 07:27:51 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Oline89

Quote from: Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) on July 30, 2020, 09:22:17 AM
If you're talking just death toll, advanced warning has been the difference. Keeping nursing homes closed up has kept death numbers a lot lower than infections in places with late surges. In Delaware, something like 80% of our deaths were nursing home residents and the vast majority of those happened in March or April. I did hear recently though they think as much as 75 or 80% of the total US population has yet to be exposed. That's my real interest with Sweden's plan. Were they able to have more people exposed and thus prevent or limit later spikes. I imagine only the next few months will tell.

Same in PA, 81% of deaths are Nursing Home residents

jamtod

Quote from: Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) on July 30, 2020, 09:22:17 AM
If you're talking just death toll, advanced warning has been the difference. Keeping nursing homes closed up has kept death numbers a lot lower than infections in places with late surges. In Delaware, something like 80% of our deaths were nursing home residents and the vast majority of those happened in March or April. I did hear recently though they think as much as 75 or 80% of the total US population has yet to be exposed. That's my real interest with Sweden's plan. Were they able to have more people exposed and thus prevent or limit later spikes. I imagine only the next few months will tell.

From what I've found, Sweden's public health agency suggests a 6% infection rate and the "best case" estimates from other studies suggest up to 15% infection. There is hope (but not certainty) that the herd immunity threshold is much lower than the 60% estimates most commonly discussed, but that's a gamble and there is still a long way to go to reach that.
And it's not as if Sweden's economy didn't take the same hit as the other Scandi countries with similar demographics. We'll see how it develops.

Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)

From the beginning they talked about the need to shut down only as much as your hospital capacity dictates. It feels like some countries have a much higher percentage of beds than others.
Lead Columnist for D3hoops.com
@ryanalanscott just about anywhere

Oline89

Quote from: jamtod on July 30, 2020, 09:53:59 AM
Quote from: Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) on July 30, 2020, 09:22:17 AM
If you're talking just death toll, advanced warning has been the difference. Keeping nursing homes closed up has kept death numbers a lot lower than infections in places with late surges. In Delaware, something like 80% of our deaths were nursing home residents and the vast majority of those happened in March or April. I did hear recently though they think as much as 75 or 80% of the total US population has yet to be exposed. That's my real interest with Sweden's plan. Were they able to have more people exposed and thus prevent or limit later spikes. I imagine only the next few months will tell.

From what I've found, Sweden's public health agency suggests a 6% infection rate and the "best case" estimates from other studies suggest up to 15% infection. There is hope (but not certainty) that the herd immunity threshold is much lower than the 60% estimates most commonly discussed, but that's a gamble and there is still a long way to go to reach that.
And it's not as if Sweden's economy didn't take the same hit as the other Scandi countries with similar demographics. We'll see how it develops.

Clearly they took a hit economically, the European economy can't be separated by country.  However, restaurants, stores and schools did remain open.  However, they did not succeed in protecting the nursing homes either, vast majority of their deaths are also nursing home residents.

jamtod

Quote from: Oline89 on July 30, 2020, 10:32:43 AM
Quote from: jamtod on July 30, 2020, 09:53:59 AM
Quote from: Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) on July 30, 2020, 09:22:17 AM
If you're talking just death toll, advanced warning has been the difference. Keeping nursing homes closed up has kept death numbers a lot lower than infections in places with late surges. In Delaware, something like 80% of our deaths were nursing home residents and the vast majority of those happened in March or April. I did hear recently though they think as much as 75 or 80% of the total US population has yet to be exposed. That's my real interest with Sweden's plan. Were they able to have more people exposed and thus prevent or limit later spikes. I imagine only the next few months will tell.

From what I've found, Sweden's public health agency suggests a 6% infection rate and the "best case" estimates from other studies suggest up to 15% infection. There is hope (but not certainty) that the herd immunity threshold is much lower than the 60% estimates most commonly discussed, but that's a gamble and there is still a long way to go to reach that.
And it's not as if Sweden's economy didn't take the same hit as the other Scandi countries with similar demographics. We'll see how it develops.

Clearly they took a hit economically, the European economy can't be separated by country.  However, restaurants, stores and schools did remain open.  However, they did not succeed in protecting the nursing homes either, vast majority of their deaths are also nursing home residents.

It seems nursing homes and poor immigrant populations took a major hit early on, as the more vulnerable populations. I still have yet to see a viable plan for isolating and protecting these incredibly vulnerable populations that doesn't involve sacrifices from the rest of society or that takes into account the significant number of people considered "vulnerable" due to age or health conditions that are in our midst, unable to be truly walled off.

Without getting too much into it, there are elements of the Swedish health system, general levels of health, and some other cultural factors that improved their outcome significantly compared to what other countries may have seen with similar measures. So in one sense, it could be considered an ideal country for that experiment (ie, they social distanced fairly well and trusted government guidance without it needing to be imposed) and also makes it difficult to apply their outcome to other places.

Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)

Quote from: jamtod on July 30, 2020, 11:10:20 AM
Quote from: Oline89 on July 30, 2020, 10:32:43 AM
Quote from: jamtod on July 30, 2020, 09:53:59 AM
Quote from: Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) on July 30, 2020, 09:22:17 AM
If you're talking just death toll, advanced warning has been the difference. Keeping nursing homes closed up has kept death numbers a lot lower than infections in places with late surges. In Delaware, something like 80% of our deaths were nursing home residents and the vast majority of those happened in March or April. I did hear recently though they think as much as 75 or 80% of the total US population has yet to be exposed. That's my real interest with Sweden's plan. Were they able to have more people exposed and thus prevent or limit later spikes. I imagine only the next few months will tell.

From what I've found, Sweden's public health agency suggests a 6% infection rate and the "best case" estimates from other studies suggest up to 15% infection. There is hope (but not certainty) that the herd immunity threshold is much lower than the 60% estimates most commonly discussed, but that's a gamble and there is still a long way to go to reach that.
And it's not as if Sweden's economy didn't take the same hit as the other Scandi countries with similar demographics. We'll see how it develops.

Clearly they took a hit economically, the European economy can't be separated by country.  However, restaurants, stores and schools did remain open.  However, they did not succeed in protecting the nursing homes either, vast majority of their deaths are also nursing home residents.

It seems nursing homes and poor immigrant populations took a major hit early on, as the more vulnerable populations. I still have yet to see a viable plan for isolating and protecting these incredibly vulnerable populations that doesn't involve sacrifices from the rest of society or that takes into account the significant number of people considered "vulnerable" due to age or health conditions that are in our midst, unable to be truly walled off.

Without getting too much into it, there are elements of the Swedish health system, general levels of health, and some other cultural factors that improved their outcome significantly compared to what other countries may have seen with similar measures. So in one sense, it could be considered an ideal country for that experiment (ie, they social distanced fairly well and trusted government guidance without it needing to be imposed) and also makes it difficult to apply their outcome to other places.

Isn't that isolation what we saw in places like Arizona and Florida?  The rest of the state opened up almost entirely, but the nursing homes remained largely locked down?  Isn't that why we've seen the death toll stay low in these places?  The new people getting sick are all the less vulnerable people going about their lives over the vulnerable people still being isolated?

My grandparents are in a facility in Vermont - it's pretty independent living, but the lockdown rules there are crazy strict.  Vermont's got the lowest rates of infection in the country, largely because they're enforcing a super strict incoming travel restriction.  They haven't (until maybe this week, I didn't check) had a mask mandate, even.  The simply isolated the whole state and put extra restrictions on nursing homes.  The sacrifices have been born by out of state travelers and, presumably, Vermont's summer tourism - but summer tourism is not the high season.  If their strict travel restrictions continue into September, then things become a real sacrifice, but right now they've done a pretty good job of keeping things as open as possible.
Lead Columnist for D3hoops.com
@ryanalanscott just about anywhere

jamtod

Quote from: Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) on July 30, 2020, 12:30:46 PM
Quote from: jamtod on July 30, 2020, 11:10:20 AM
Quote from: Oline89 on July 30, 2020, 10:32:43 AM
Quote from: jamtod on July 30, 2020, 09:53:59 AM
Quote from: Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) on July 30, 2020, 09:22:17 AM
If you're talking just death toll, advanced warning has been the difference. Keeping nursing homes closed up has kept death numbers a lot lower than infections in places with late surges. In Delaware, something like 80% of our deaths were nursing home residents and the vast majority of those happened in March or April. I did hear recently though they think as much as 75 or 80% of the total US population has yet to be exposed. That's my real interest with Sweden's plan. Were they able to have more people exposed and thus prevent or limit later spikes. I imagine only the next few months will tell.

From what I've found, Sweden's public health agency suggests a 6% infection rate and the "best case" estimates from other studies suggest up to 15% infection. There is hope (but not certainty) that the herd immunity threshold is much lower than the 60% estimates most commonly discussed, but that's a gamble and there is still a long way to go to reach that.
And it's not as if Sweden's economy didn't take the same hit as the other Scandi countries with similar demographics. We'll see how it develops.

Clearly they took a hit economically, the European economy can't be separated by country.  However, restaurants, stores and schools did remain open.  However, they did not succeed in protecting the nursing homes either, vast majority of their deaths are also nursing home residents.

It seems nursing homes and poor immigrant populations took a major hit early on, as the more vulnerable populations. I still have yet to see a viable plan for isolating and protecting these incredibly vulnerable populations that doesn't involve sacrifices from the rest of society or that takes into account the significant number of people considered "vulnerable" due to age or health conditions that are in our midst, unable to be truly walled off.

Without getting too much into it, there are elements of the Swedish health system, general levels of health, and some other cultural factors that improved their outcome significantly compared to what other countries may have seen with similar measures. So in one sense, it could be considered an ideal country for that experiment (ie, they social distanced fairly well and trusted government guidance without it needing to be imposed) and also makes it difficult to apply their outcome to other places.

Isn't that isolation what we saw in places like Arizona and Florida?  The rest of the state opened up almost entirely, but the nursing homes remained largely locked down?  Isn't that why we've seen the death toll stay low in these places?  The new people getting sick are all the less vulnerable people going about their lives over the vulnerable people still being isolated?

My grandparents are in a facility in Vermont - it's pretty independent living, but the lockdown rules there are crazy strict.  Vermont's got the lowest rates of infection in the country, largely because they're enforcing a super strict incoming travel restriction.  They haven't (until maybe this week, I didn't check) had a mask mandate, even.  The simply isolated the whole state and put extra restrictions on nursing homes.  The sacrifices have been born by out of state travelers and, presumably, Vermont's summer tourism - but summer tourism is not the high season.  If their strict travel restrictions continue into September, then things become a real sacrifice, but right now they've done a pretty good job of keeping things as open as possible.

I'm not sure what specific measures Arizona or Florida took in terms of the nursing homes. Some have had greater success than others, but I'm not an expert on the best practices there. Even with nursing homes, you have nurses and workers that are going in and out and may have wide variances in what level of sacrifice or risk they are taking, except for the rare cases where we've seen nursing home workers completely isolate with their residences for a time (I think there were stories from Italy about this). My other thoughts on this would veer too far from what is relevant to this board (if it hasn't already).

But this is also just one level of vulnerable folks. The vulnerable are also our parents who live at home, our spouses who have immune-compromising illnesses, etc.
A lot to balance and no simple answers, it just doesn't lend itself well to good faith discussions when the solutions are oversimplified or boiled down to fear or panic.

OzJohnnie

Quote from: Pat Coleman on July 29, 2020, 07:44:52 PM
It does indeed look as though Sweden is finally getting out of its first wave, so ... yeah.

So quick with the quip, Pat.  It's easy to wallow in misery and gloom.  Pat yourself on the back.  Keep that glass half empty at every opportunity.  I'm sure if you just hope hard enough then you'll be able to ignore every indication that your gloomy perspective is dead wrong.  Weak and wrong.
[  

jknezek

Quote from: OzJohnnie on July 31, 2020, 09:16:50 PM
Quote from: Pat Coleman on July 29, 2020, 07:44:52 PM
It does indeed look as though Sweden is finally getting out of its first wave, so ... yeah.

So quick with the quip, Pat.  It's easy to wallow in misery and gloom.  Pat yourself on the back.  Keep that glass half empty at every opportunity.  I'm sure if you just hope hard enough then you'll be able to ignore every indication that your gloomy perspective is dead wrong.  Weak and wrong.

Um... we've lost 155,000 Americans to this disease in six months and we are still losing over 1000 a day. Gloomy is pretty accurate. I mean sure, it's not the millions that were the worst case projection, but it's pretty ugly.

The only 2 American Wars that cost more lives were WWII and the Civil War.

Gray Fox

Quote from: jknezek on July 31, 2020, 10:46:18 PM
Quote from: OzJohnnie on July 31, 2020, 09:16:50 PM
Quote from: Pat Coleman on July 29, 2020, 07:44:52 PM
It does indeed look as though Sweden is finally getting out of its first wave, so ... yeah.

So quick with the quip, Pat.  It's easy to wallow in misery and gloom.  Pat yourself on the back.  Keep that glass half empty at every opportunity.  I'm sure if you just hope hard enough then you'll be able to ignore every indication that your gloomy perspective is dead wrong.  Weak and wrong.

Um... we've lost 155,000 Americans to this disease in six months and we are still losing over 1000 a day. Gloomy is pretty accurate. I mean sure, it's not the millions that were the worst case projection, but it's pretty ugly.

The only 2 American Wars that cost more lives were WWII and the Civil War.
The virus is just getting started.  There will be at least 1.5 million lives lost unless we get a good vaccine.
I guess my glass is broken.
Fierce When Roused

OzJohnnie

Quote from: jamtod on July 29, 2020, 09:51:24 PM
Meanwhile, in America, we are further from getting under the epidemic threshold classification than we were when last discussed.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html

QuoteBased on death certificate data, the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia, influenza or COVID-19 (PIC) increased from week 26 – week 28 (June 27 – July 11) for the first time since mid-April. The percentage for week 29 is 9.1% and currently lower than the percentage during week 28 (11.5%); however,the percentage remains above the epidemic threshold. These percentages will likely change as more death certificates are processed.


Wait.  First it's deny that I'm reading it correctly, never acknowledging I was until you can turn the message the other direction?  A profile in intellectual integrity there.

But since you think it's in your favor you'll accept it as authoritative?  I'll hold you to that.  Let's come back in a couple weeks.  See what it says then.
[  

OzJohnnie

Quote from: jknezek on July 31, 2020, 10:46:18 PM
Quote from: OzJohnnie on July 31, 2020, 09:16:50 PM
Quote from: Pat Coleman on July 29, 2020, 07:44:52 PM
It does indeed look as though Sweden is finally getting out of its first wave, so ... yeah.

So quick with the quip, Pat.  It's easy to wallow in misery and gloom.  Pat yourself on the back.  Keep that glass half empty at every opportunity.  I'm sure if you just hope hard enough then you'll be able to ignore every indication that your gloomy perspective is dead wrong.  Weak and wrong.

Um... we've lost 155,000 Americans to this disease in six months and we are still losing over 1000 a day. Gloomy is pretty accurate. I mean sure, it's not the millions that were the worst case projection, but it's pretty ugly.

The only 2 American Wars that cost more lives were WWII and the Civil War.

Remember the Hong Kong flu in '68?  100k deaths in the US when the population was 205 million.  That would be... 249k equivalent deaths today.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1968-pandemic.html

Remember the epidemic of '57?  That was 116k deaths in the US with a population of 178 million.  Or... 287k equivalent deaths today.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1957-1958-pandemic.html


Perspective.  This event is neither unique nor exceptional.  The response is unprecedented, that's for certain.
[  

OzJohnnie

Quote from: jamtod on July 29, 2020, 09:51:24 PM
Meanwhile, in America, we are further from getting under the epidemic threshold classification than we were when last discussed.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html

QuoteBased on death certificate data, the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia, influenza or COVID-19 (PIC) increased from week 26 – week 28 (June 27 – July 11) for the first time since mid-April. The percentage for week 29 is 9.1% and currently lower than the percentage during week 28 (11.5%); however,the percentage remains above the epidemic threshold. These percentages will likely change as more death certificates are processed.

At least when I quoted from the report I also quoted the parts that hedged the point I was making.  I trusted you to do the same.  My mistake.

Quote
Nationally, levels of influenza-like illness (ILI) are below baseline but higher than typically seen at this time of year. Indicators that track ILI and COVID-19-like illness (CLI) showed decreases nationally from week 29 to week 30, with decreasing or stable levels in nearly all regions of the country. Nationally, the percentage of laboratory tests positive for SARS-CoV-2 remained stable from week 29 to week 30 but increased in six of ten HHS regions. Weekly hospitalization rates and mortality attributed to COVID-19 declined during week 30 but may change as more data for admissions and deaths occurring during the most recent weeks are received. Mortality attributed to COVID-19 remains above the epidemic threshold.

I never said it was below the threshold.  I said it was approaching and would soon fall under.  Same holds true.  It's hovering just above - for mortality only.  And that's a near miss thing.

So I look forward to you returning to this reporting in a few weeks.  The trend has been steady and certain.  We know where it's heading.
[  

jamtod

Quote from: OzJohnnie on August 01, 2020, 01:47:24 AM
Quote from: jamtod on July 29, 2020, 09:51:24 PM
Meanwhile, in America, we are further from getting under the epidemic threshold classification than we were when last discussed.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html

QuoteBased on death certificate data, the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia, influenza or COVID-19 (PIC) increased from week 26 – week 28 (June 27 – July 11) for the first time since mid-April. The percentage for week 29 is 9.1% and currently lower than the percentage during week 28 (11.5%); however,the percentage remains above the epidemic threshold. These percentages will likely change as more death certificates are processed.


Wait.  First it's deny that I'm reading it correctly, never acknowledging I was until you can turn the message the other direction?  A profile in intellectual integrity there.

But since you think it's in your favor you'll accept it as authoritative?  I'll hold you to that.  Let's come back in a couple weeks.  See what it says then.

You are projecting an awful lot. Time to take a break again Oz

jknezek

Quote from: OzJohnnie on August 01, 2020, 01:58:32 AM


Remember the Hong Kong flu in '68?  100k deaths in the US when the population was 205 million.  That would be... 249k equivalent deaths today.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1968-pandemic.html

Remember the epidemic of '57?  That was 116k deaths in the US with a population of 178 million.  Or... 287k equivalent deaths today.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1957-1958-pandemic.html


Perspective.  This event is neither unique nor exceptional.  The response is unprecedented, that's for certain.

Remember the Black Death that wiped out 1/3 of Europe? The point of progress is to learn, adapt and improve. It doesn't make the current event any less gloomy. But I sure hope we have fewer deaths with every pandemic and we have developed more effective responses. Otherwise we aren't making much progress.

If you want to believe the death toll worldwide from this virus is no big deal you are welcome to do so. Some of us are certainly gloomy about the lives lost. Just because it's been worse before doesn't mean it is good now.