South Region playoffs

[wally_wabash]

RE: South region teams getting shipped to the North Region...

The North region is already loaded with plenty of playoff caliber teams.  OAC champ, CCIW champ, NCAC champ, HCAC champ,  MIAA champ.  and IBC champ.  That's already six.  Further, the OAC and CCIW are typically strong candidates for multiple bids (especially with the expanded playoffs this year) and you get an overcrowded North Region.  Twice in the last three years the North region has shipped a team east (Allegheny in '03, John Carroll in '02).  I would guess that the only South region team with a real shot to end up in the North bracket would be Depauw, but Depauw will have to win out to make that happen.  Thiel, if they got shipped out of the region, would almost certainly go to the east.    

[Ralph Turner]

I agree with Wally!  Thiel or Wesley might be shipped East.

In 2001, Hardin-Simmons was "sent north" and hosted Wittenburg in the first round, as UMHB went to Trinity.

[wally_wabash]

Additionally, the way things are shaping up, Thiel might not be a good North region fit anyway.  The OAC looks like it might beat itself up out of a pool C bid again this year and Wabash could keep any Ohio-based NCAC schools out of the playoffs.  Mount Union very well could be the only Ohio school in the tournament this year.  Any other trip Thiel might have to make gets to be pretty long...without mapquesting things my guess is that Thiel's trips to Indiana or Illinois (or trips from schools in those states to Pennsylvania) are going to be about as long as Thiel's trips to other East region teams.  The brackets probably fall out a whole lot easier by moving Thiel east than trying to cram them into an already crowded North region, especially if there aren't many/any Ohio teams for Thiel to get paired up with. 

[pakownr97]

I have a question for my fellow experts on this board.  Why does the President's conference winner not get an automatic A bid since their conference now has seven members.  Did the NCAA change that criteria, or am I mistaken?  I thought that conferences with seven or more football members got an A bid?

What gives?

[Pat Coleman]

After a two-year waiting period they qualify.

http://www.d3football.com/news.php?item=778
http://www.d3football.com/dailydose/?p=55

[Josh Bowerman]

I'll give it a go, just for kicks and giggles:

South Region preditions, Round one, winners paired for next round:

Christopher Newport (USAC Champ) at Hardin-Simmons
Mary Hardin-Baylor/East Texas Baptist at Trinity

Rationale:  ACFC will come down to last week of season.  If Salisbury wins, the committee will likely shy away from a Salisbury/CNU rematch in the first round.  Texas sub-bracket in-tact w/ likely a one-time-only flight.  CNU gets the long road game because of two-loss record (albeit to two potential playoff teams).

Thomas More (PAC Champ) at Bridgewater
Salisbury (ACFC Champ) at John's Hopkins (CC Champ)

Rationale:  As above w/ regard to Salisbury.  Really, IMO, these four teams are interchangeable as far as who hosts whom, due to relatively close geographic proximity.  

If DePauw, Thiel or W&J get a bid, then I think they get shipped to another region.  

Predicted Pool A's from South Region:  HSU, Trinity, Bridgewater, Christopher Newport, John's Hopkins

Predicted Pool B's from South Region:  Salisbury, Thomas More

Predicted Pool C's from South Region:  Mary Hardin-Baylor or East Texas Baptist

[pakownr97]

Since you did such a fine job on that question, here's another.

How many Pool B v Pool C bids will there be this year?

I read the criteria and could probably figure it out, but I don't want to be "kidlike."

Besides, I am sure Pat already knows.

[Pat Coleman]

It's in the FAQ.

[Josh Bowerman]

Yup.  But, the answer is four.  Though probably only three will outright deserve the bid. 

My guess is the fourth Pool B goes to the PAC this year.  Thiel will get it if they lose to TMC and win out.  TMC gets it if they lose to Thiel and win out.  W&J gets it if Thiel beats TMC and W&J wins out. 

Any of those three teams could be shipped to another region based on geographic proximity.

[Toby Taff]

Josh
My prediction if MHB and HSU both make the playoffs and you are correct on seeding.  The Loser of the October 22 game (HSU if both go) advances out of the bracket.

Did I just say that

[Josh Bowerman]

I'm giving the nod to HSU, because I think HSU and UMHB will likely beat ETBU this year.  So, unless I'm mistaken, regardless of the HSU/UMHB outcome, HSU would win the ASC due to the winning percentage tiebreaker in effect due to the UMHB/LC cancellation--assuming they beat ETBU this weekend.  Barring tremendous upset, I think HSU needs one win over ETBU/UMHB to win the ASC.

Do remember that the committee doesn't schedule the games based on "seeds"--i.e. it's not a 1-8, 7-2 thing, but could be a 1-3, 2-4 thing.  Geography takes precedent over everything else.

[Josh Bowerman]

My early predictions for overall Pool C bids is as follows (in no particular order):

ASC #2 team:  East Texas Baptist or Mary Hardin-Baylor, whoever wins on 10/29.

OAC #2 team:  Otterbein or John Carroll, whoever wins on 10/29;  assuming Otterbein beats Ohio Northern this Saturday.

CCIW #2 team:  Augustana, North Central or Carthage.  Augustana controlls own fate in Pool A race, and can likely get only Pool A bid.  Carthage can likely only get Pool C due to loss vs. Augustana last Saturday.

MAC #2 team:  If it's Delaware Valley, otherwise not sure the MAC gets two in.

MIAC #2 team:  St. John's/Concordia-Moorhead/St. Olaf, whichever team finishes conference play with only one conference and overall loss.

IIAC #2 team:  If it's Central, otherwise not sure the IIAC gets two in.

Other possibilities for the seven Pool C slots include St. John Fisher, McDaniel, DePauw, Hobart and Union.  My guess is that, of this group, St. John Fisher (overtime loser to conference champ Ithaca)  and the Hobart/Union loser have the inside track. 

McDaniel will be done if they lose to JHU with two losses.  Don't know what to think about DePauw, but they'd be out with a loss to Wabash.

[Toby Taff]

Seeding was a bad term, I meant according to your match up.  I really hate to give the nod to HSU, but if both teams are in then MHB beat HSU on 10/22 and you know what they say about beating the same team twice in a season. Also, we know what these games are like normally.  I must say, I wouldn't mind another trip to Trinity, though.  Those games are fun to watch

[Bill McCabe]

Josh,  A 2nd ASC team with 2 losses?  Just wondering.  Hope it is true.

[Bob.Gregg]

If W&J runs the table, they'll get a bid, whether it's Pool B or Pool C.

(you veterans KNOW I love to stir THIS pot).