FB: Region 3 fan poll

[Pat Coleman]

I'm not sure that 8-1 in-region teams are treated differently than 9-1 in-region teams.

[Major Rev]

What we're seeing in the national poll is probably an expression of this, though I think the playoffs are a different animal.  It won't be until the top SCAC teams establish themselves against other nationally ranked D3 teams that they will move up the poll, whether they're undefeated or not.  The simple attrition of teams experiencing losses will not 'git er dun', especially in determining the playoff picture.

[DPU3619]

The simple attrition of teams experiencing losses will not 'git er dun', especially in determining the playoff picture.

If the teams can't 'git er dun' against the teams they're playing now, playing more difficult competition does not increase their playoff chances.  I can't put it to you any more simply than that.  The list of SCAC teams that missed the playoffs because their schedule was too weak is fairly short.  There are exactly zero on it.   ZERO.  There aren't any.  They all missed it because of 2 losses. 

Why does playing tougher teams and losing MORE games mean that more SCAC teams go to the playoffs? 

[Major Rev]

Maybe we'll find out this year, given the start by Millsaps, Trinity, and DePauw ... we should have all those answers by Nov. 2nd.

[Major Rev]

Oh ... and I'm not assuming those games are losses ...

[Ryan Tipps]

On top of that, the reason the SCAC has struggled so mightly in the playoffs is because the committee signs Trinity's death warrant by sending them to Belton or Abilene in the first round every single year.

In the past five years, hasn't Trinity been sent to Belton or Abilene only once -- in 2007? Two other years in that time period, though, Trinity has played UMHB as the home team.

As for the other two years: Trinity played ETBU and lost; and Millsaps was the SCAC's playoff candidate in '06 and lost at Carnegie Mellon.

This isn't like a 9-1 SLIAC team.   I find it very hard to leave a 9-1 SCAC team out. 

You mean like they did with a 9-1 Centre team in 2001? Different criteria back then, but still, that's a 9-1 team that didn't have the SOS to get in, thanks in part to playing teams that were 5-5, 2-8 and 5-5 that year.

[Major Rev]

Ryan, you obviously know your history much better than I do.  Thanks for the most recent history.

[Ralph Turner]

Playoffs -- 2001 from the left-sidebar link on the front page.

Here is the background on the 2001 playoffs, including the 18 Pool A picks, the 7 Pool B picks and the 3 Pool C picks.  (Look at all of the conferences that have moved from Pool B to Pool A:  the Pres AC, the Northwest Conference, the Upstate Collegiate/Liberty League, Empire and SCIAC.  When the Freedom Football Conference disbanded, its members scattered to the NJAC, the LL, and E8.)

Pool C picks in 2001 were the NJAC's Montclair State, UMHB and the MIAC's Bethel.

[DPU3619]

In the past five years, hasn't Trinity been sent to Belton or Abilene only once -- in 2007? Two other years in that time period, though, Trinity has played UMHB as the home team.

To be quite honest, the venue isn't particularly relevant when you have to play them.  You could play them on the north pole and they're still running for 500 yards. 

Sorry my wording was incorrect.  But, the point is still valid.  The only reason the SCAC never wins playoff games is because Trinity has to play UMHB or HSU every single year.  It's very, very rare (see 2002) that Trinity gets out of that alive.  That year they went to the Stagg Bowl.

My original point was this:  DePauw can't get to 9 wins against they schedule they play.  Never have.  They also can't beat Trinity, who can't get out of the first round.  Millsaps can't get to 9 wins against the schedule they play.  Also never have.  They went to the playoffs as a 7-3 team in '06 because they beat Trinity.  If we can't get our teams out of the conference with 0 or 1 losses, we don't have that many playoff teams anyway, honestly.

[Ron Boerger]

I am willing to go on record as saying that Millsaps' days of not getting to nine wins is over.   

[Ryan Tipps]

Sorry my wording was incorrect.  But, the point is still valid.  The only reason the SCAC never wins playoff games is because Trinity has to play UMHB or HSU every single year.  It's very, very rare (see 2002) that Trinity gets out of that alive.  That year they went to the Stagg Bowl.

If you're going to reference 2002, you might as well as reference the three years prior to that, too, when Trinity beat either UMHB or H-S two out of three times. And part of what I was alluding to in my post was that even when the SCAC doesn't play UMHB or H-S in the playoffs, the conference rep still loses (ETBU and Carnegie Mellon). There's more going on than just the blame against UMHB and H-S.

And I disagree about DePauw not being able to attain 9 wins. It IS possible. I'm the rare Wabash grad who actually wants to see DePauw win a lot in a season -- all of the first nine games, in fact    That makes the Bell game sweeter and more competitve.

I see lot of parallels between where DePauw is and where Wabash was a few years ago in the NCAC. Wabash had to get over that Wittenburg hump, and once we did, the whole dynamic of the conference changed. DPU just hasn't gotten over that hump. It's really not a stretch to say that a nine-win season is out of reach for DPU.

[Josh Bowerman]

I'd also point out that the SCAC champ, Millsaps, played and lost at Carnegie Mellon in 2006. 

[I believe] That was the first and only year, to date, that two conference teams have been paired against each other in the first round--even when the AA could and should have scheduled things differently.  Much to the detriment of the ASC, I might add, who had two of the top 10 teams in the country that year at playoff time.

[Josh Bowerman]

Having said that, as a South Region football fan, I do agree with Wes's general sentiment (though it extends beyond just the SCAC) about the playoffs:  the system does favor teams in the East and North because of the AA's financial rules and the geographic proximity of teams one to another in those parts of the DIII world. 

If we were allowed to seed the South and West brackets, regardless of travel, in a true 1-8 fashion each year, then I suspect the results would have been much different.

[DPU3619]

And part of what I was alluding to in my post was that even when the SCAC doesn't play UMHB or H-S in the playoffs, the conference rep still loses (ETBU and Carnegie Mellon).

Look, I'm not trying to make it out like they're getting an unfair shake, here.  If Trinity was leaving Texas occassionally, they may have more wins.  But, they're going to run back into UMHB, HSU, or whoever eventually.  It's not as if the pairing costs them the Stagg every year.  Yes, Millsaps lost to Carnegie Mellon, but they also lost to 3 other teams that year.  I'm not making excuses, but there's a reason they lost to CMU.  I'm not saying that the SCAC should be treated differently.  Just that there's a pretty good reason they haven't had more playoff success.  Josh expressed my thoughts much more clearly that I have in the previous post.

We're on the same page that the SCAC doesn't deserve 2 teams in the playoffs unless somebody proves they can earn it, which they haven't done in the current playoff structure.  That was my original point.  Yes, Centre won 9 in 2001 when there were only 3 Pool C's.  But, nobody's done it since the field expanded.   

I also agree that DePauw can get to 9 wins.  I've thought that for a long time.  But, it's been a serious of unfortunate events every year that prevents it.  Pass defense vanished in the middle of the year last year.  Went 0 for the century in the red zone at Trinity in '06, among many other things.  Had to beat Wabash to get in to the dance in '05 and couldn't do it.  They coughed up a 12 point lead with 5 to go at home against Trinity in '04.  Lost by the safety at Trinity in '03 before falling apart down the stretch.  So on, so forth, and etc.  May not be this year, but it may be next year.  I have a hard time really belieiving they're going to win 2 of the 3 at Centre, at Trinity, and at Millsaps.  Then you still HAVE to win the Bell game to get in.  They may surprise me, though.

[Ralph Turner]

Having said that, as a South Region football fan, I do agree with Wes's general sentiment (though it extends beyond just the SCAC) about the playoffs:  the system does favor teams in the East and North because of the AA's financial rules and the geographic proximity of teams one to another in those parts of the DIII world. 

If we were allowed to seed the South and West brackets, regardless of travel, in a true 1-8 fashion each year, then I suspect the results would have been much different.

Utopia...

I just want the NCAA back office to use the correct maps when seeding the tournaments...

Remember that Millsaps is less than 500 miles from Belton under the current system.

I think that there will be 7 Pool C bids.

Wild guess on September 16th...

Millsaps (Pool C bid) gets sent to Belton.

HSU (Pool C bid) gets sent to Trinity.

Winners likely meet in Belton for the Championship of the Texas Sub-bracket