MBB: NESCAC

Started by cameltime, April 27, 2005, 02:38:16 PM

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nescac1

This is the most wide open POY race I can recall heading into the NESCAC tourney.  Jefferson is still the very narrow favorite, but with the time he's already missed, if he doesn't return and make an impact in the NESCAC tourney, I think someone else from this group snags it: David Reynolds (he has a case but with Bowdoin out of the tourney, he's probably out), Karp, Sellew, Day, Gilmour, Farrell, Eastman, Donovan, Savage, Rogers.  I know that seems kind of nuts but it's at least within the realm of possibility that any of those guys have three massive games, lead their team to the title, and snag POY.  It's been that sort of year in NESCAC, just a lot of players having very good, but not all-American, kind of years. 

Speaking of Sellew, what a crazy box score he had vs Trinity: 20-12-4 plus 5 steals and 4 blocks!  Seems he is all the way back from his injury.   

Agree with the Strahorn, Padmore and King picks. All no brainers.  This is definitely the league's most loaded frosh class since the class of 2017.  Williams, Bates, Hamilton, Colby all seem to have really strong and deep frosh classes.  Maybe Trinity and Tufts too, but those impressive guards are all stuck behind veterans.  Toss in Maccoux, Moore, McPherron, etc, the league is indeed in good hands going forward. 

Old Guy

#27526
Quote from: SpringSt7 on February 16, 2020, 03:33:51 PM

First Team: Jefferson, Savage, Farrell, Karpowicz, Gilmour

Second Team: Reynolds, Rogers, Day, Donovan, Spellman

Players that deserve some sort of recognition but might not get any: Dorion, Eastman, Hanna, James, Bosco, etc.

I can't remember a year in recent memory that shaped up like this in terms of individual recognition: so many players with great numbers like Tommy Eastman, for example, who contributed greatly to winning teams and deserve credit, but how do you then justify leaving off a guy like Jeff Spellman or Colin Donovan whose teams made the NESCAC tournament, or in Donovan's case, comfortably made the NESCAC tournament and look like real threats.

In a perfect world, David Reynolds and Luke Rogers would both make the first team but I can't justify putting a guy on first-team whose team won 8 games and missed the NESCAC tournament, and I don't think Tufts had quite a good enough season to warrant two guys on the first-team when there are so many other deserving players.

How little love Matt Folger is getting in this discussion! Not even a mention. He is averaging 11.8 ppg, and 9.5 rpg (3rd in the league), shooting 46.6 from the floor overall, and 40.6 from the arc, with 1.6 blocks a game (5th). He is a captain of a 20-4 team. He missed 3 games early due to injury and was played sparingly in two others, but his presence and leadership on the floor has been stalwart. I don't think there's a coach in the league that would exclude him from the top tier of NESCAC players: they certainly don't want to see him in the corner with the ball and some space to shoot.

He has been a three year starter for the Panthers (13.6 ppg overall) and was an important contributor to a 27-4 Sweet 16 team his frosh year (15 minutes a game, 6.5 ppg). The Panthers have qualified for NCAA Tournament play in his first three years (5wins- 3losses) and hopefully this year too. He has been asked this year to play a somewhat different role in the absence of the front court help from years past (Tarentino, Majors, McCord). He is not a natural 5 but has been asked to play defense against bigger and stronger guys — Karpowics, Rogers, et al (this is not meant to discount the baseline contributions of Cahill and Eastman, also not natural 5s). Consequently, Matt has taken three fewer shots a game this year (a 25% reduction) because of the balanced Middlebury attack: Farrell (16.4), Bosco (15), Eastman (13.3), Kornaker (8.6).

He has more than answered the call this year, and his absence from the discussion of post season all-league honors is a serious omission.

toad22

Agreed, Folger is a real player. Midd is nowhere without him!

SpringSt7

Matt Folger is, for sure, a very good basketball player. Had I continued to elaborate on the "etc." portion of players who deserve recognition, he surely would have been one of the next names mentioned.

Very rarely are there only 10 players who are worthy of All-League honors, this year is certainly not one of them. Stats and numbers never tell a complete story but it would just be hard for a guy who is 4th on his team in scoring, on a team that finished 6-4 as the #5 seed in conference, to sneak his way in.

If anything, it would be more criminal to exclude Tommy Eastman---who has just been an absolute monster in league play as he has continued to grow into his role on this Middlebury team and acclimate to the NESCAC: 5 20+ point games in conference, including 4 out of the last 5, while shooting 61% from the field and 44% from 3. But again, it is just hard to include a team's 2nd or 3rd best player in a year where there has not been a clear dominant team in the league, and seemingly every single team has 1 or 2 guys who are also deserving as well.

It is almost never about who is worthy or not worthy, but who is more worthy than the others.

Old Guy

#27529
Wonderful weekend of basketball in Middlebury: two great games, big noisy appreciative crowds. Yesterday's game vs Bates the crowd was estimated at 999 (I don't know who does the crowd estimate but the place was pretty much full; Friday night, 563).

People may assume that Bates (12-12, 4-6) caught the Panthers (20-4, 6-4) napping after a very intense game the night before, a big win over Tufts. Not the case at all. Middlebury played hard and well. Just a great game! As Bucket observed after the game, you had to like our chances with the score tied, eight seconds on the clock and Farrell with the ball in the open court: a made basket, foul shots to win, or a  win in OT. . .

But Nick Gilpin won it with a contested bomb at the buzzer: nothing but net. He was unconscious most of the game: 6-8 from three; 10-14 overall (28 points). Nick Gilpin! He averages 7.5 points a game. He couldn't missI In the zone. I saw in person the Bates-Hamilton game in Lewiston and commented here on Gilpin's line: 34 minutes, 2 points, 10 rebounds, 7 assists — a valuable contribution. But this . . . who knew! He's a senior, and his shot meant that he'll get to live another day, as Bates qualified for the 8th seed with the win.

Spellman and Sarr were terrific too. Spellman (24 points on 10-16 shooting) is so creative with the ball, and in the last 6 minutes or so in the game, Bates just cleared a side of the floor for him and let him go to work. Sarr, the frosh, was uncontainable. Middlebury was without Cahill both games, ankle injury, so was very thin up front, worried about fouling, and Sarr just had his way despite the best efforts of Folger and Eastman: 17 points, 19 rebounds (10 offensive!), 7-8 from the line. He could be really something going forward.

Midd shot 54% and lost! Folger and Eastman were heroic in defeat. Matt had 19 points, 11 rebounds and 4 blocks. Eastman had 28 points on all kinds of shots, inside/outside. He is so adroit on the blocks. looks like he's channeling Olajuwon/McHale. And he plays with such poise and calm. Where would Midd be without him!

Friday night saw another terrific game, with Midd pulling away from 7-1 Tufts to win comfortably. At the outset, it looked like it would be a long night for the Panthers. Cahill who has been so instrumental to Midd's success was in street clothes in a boot. Tufts took immediate advantage of Midd's lack of frontcourt depth and went to Rogers who hit his first three or four shots, with apparent ease. If he passed it out from the paint, Morris nailed a three (6-11 from 3; 23 points overall). Rogers ended up with 19 points on 9-12 shooting and 13 rebounds, but was a woeful 1-9 from the line and that hurt in the second half.

Middlebury adjusted after Tufts' early onslaught and led at the half by 6 in a GREAT half of basketball: back and forth, fast-paced, two good teams playing at a high level, and then won the second half going away. A wonderful 40 minute performance by the Panthers.

Bosco had 26 points on 3-6 from three (9-20 from the floor, 5-5 from the line) and clever moves to the the hoop: drives, floaters, fadeaway jumpers — he's fun to watch. Folger was huge with 18 points and 16 rebounds; Eastman had 14 and 11; Delorenzo played 17 big minutes, went 5-6 from the field.

Pepin was where it was at last weekend: Midd may have lost to Bates in the second game, but no one was asking for their money back (so to speak) — a fabulous weekend of basketball in our snowy outpost. 



Bucket

#27530
Speaking of Matt Folger, Jeff Brown said something the other night to put Matt's career in perspective:

Jeff Brown has coached two players at Middlebury who have scored 1,200 points and grabbed 700 rebounds: Ryan Sharry and Matt Folger. (The former being a first-team All American.) Further, Folger will finish his time at Middlebury second in career blocks, trailing only Andrew Locke.

Worthy of recognition indeed.

(Further, I love to correct my dear friend Old Guy—Matt's freshman year, the Panther's advanced to the Elite Eight; Sweet 16 was his sophomore year.)

amh63

Several random comments.
Old Guy...nothing better watching basketball live in one's college gym or in your case "gyms".
I will be in Florida watching online this weekend...with family.  Expect the third Amherst vs Williams game to be another barn burner...it's in LeFrak.
Matt Folger is quite the player.  How did Amherst not recruit him?  He is from Weston, Ct....the upscale community, next door to Easton, Ct.....where my wife grew up.  Folger's name brings to mind the Folger Library in D.C. on Capital Hill.  Amherst handles the Library's endownment much like Folger handled Rockefeller's Standard Oil of NY...as Prez.  Folger was an Amherst alum.  Folger's prep school is in Northhampton! 

NEhoops

Folger is a winner and could get some recognition because he is a senior and has had a great career, but the fact that he has two teammates that are playing at an all-league level (Farrell/Eastman) and that Middlebury finished 5th in the league make it unlikely that he'll make an all-league team. Coach Brown and other coaches in the league will be the first to tell you that you need players like Folger to have sustained success in the NESCAC.
I think the two teams are going to come from the groping below. I could see Sellew not making the cut, but after that I'm hard pressed to cut out anyone else. Keep in mind that there has been a 6-person second team a few times in the past.

AMH
Day
Sellew

BAT
Spellman

BOW
Reynolds

COL
Jefferson
Dorion

HAM
Gilmour

MID
Farrell
Eastman

TRI
Donovan

TUF
Savage
Rogers

WIL
Karpowicz

No. 8 Hamilton at No. 1 Tufts – Unforgettable weekend for Tufts. Have to expect that they shoot the ball better being back at home. Their struggles at the free throw line (it's not just Rogers) could come back to haunt them. Hamilton will be riding high and looking for the upset. With Gilmour, they can beat anybody, but it will come down to what his supporting cast does.

No. 7 Bates at No. 2 Colby – This will be the third time that these teams square off this season. Colby took the first two, but it is hard to beat a team three times in one season. If Jefferson plays, I would favor Colby at home. If he is out, I think Bates has what it takes to get hot and pull off the upset. The health of Greenhalgh is a factor as well.

No. 6 Williams at No. 3 Amherst – Based on the theory of beating a time three times, Amherst has an edge and they are at home. At the same time it is a rivalry game and I think Williams is playing at a higher level.   

No. 5 Middlebury at No. 4 Trinity – I'm favoring Middlebury on the road in this one. A lot of weapons and can beat times in many different ways. They'll regroup from their loss at Trinity earlier in the year. Trinity has been wildly inconsistent, not a recipe for success in the postseason. 

Colby Hoops

Thought it was fun to look at some of the offensive and defensive efficiency numbers from Matt Snyder: http://tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-basketball-efficiency.html

They're pace adjusted, so much better than just looking at which teams scored or gave up the most points. Parentheses is the national rank. Also, these take into account the entire season, not just conference play.

A few things that jump out -- Amherst comes out favorably in these ratings (actually ranked second among NESCAC teams in overall efficiency rating). They've played better in stretches than the record indicates. Trinity is the complete opposite of past teams -- excellent offensively and pretty poor defensively. Colby's defense is underrated, they force a lot of turnovers and rarely foul, so they might look worse on eye test than they actually are. Bates is much worse on offense than I would've guessed, but they do have the worst fg% of any Nescac team. They're also higher on defense than I would've expected.

Best Adjusted Offense:
1. Colby (14)
2. Amherst (15)
3. Midd (18)
4. Trinity (19)
5. Hamilton (40)
6. Tufts (46)
7. Williams (83)
8. Wesleyan (153)
9. Bowdoin (156)
10. Bates (177)
11. Conn (329)

Best Adjusted Defense

1. Tufts (14)
2. Williams (18)
3. Wesleyan (22)
4. Bates (27)
5. Amherst (33)
6. Colby (35)
7. Midd (66)
8. Hamilton (102)
9. Trinity (154)
10. Bowdoin (296)
11. Conn (384)

NEhoops

Good stuff Colby Hoops,

I agree about Amherst, you could make a case that they're the second-best team behind Tufts statistically. 

The change in style of play for Trinity has caught a lot of people off guard. You usually don't see something like that unless there is a coaching change or a large influx of new players.

Colby's defense has taken a step back since Jefferson has been out. When they are shooting it at a high percentage it helps setup their defense.

It's hard to believe that Hamilton is going to be able to turn it around this weekend. Even in some of the games they lost they won they shoot very poorly – WIL 39% and TRI 38%.

For Bates, it seems like they have stretches where they are playing really well on offense or really well on defense, but not both at the same time. Interesting stat from their game against Middlebury – they had only 1 turnover in the 2nd half!

Colby Hoops

Makeup game that was snowed out against Southern Maine is coming back to bite Colby. They didn't come ready to play and are down 3 with 7 minutes to play.

Colby Hoops

Quote from: Colby Hoops on February 17, 2020, 08:30:52 PM
Makeup game that was snowed out against Southern Maine is coming back to bite Colby. They didn't come ready to play and are down 3 with 7 minutes to play.

Mules escape with a 93-91 win. Colby played well offensively led by Matt Hanna and Noah Tyson, but could not get a stop for basically the entire night. Jaire Roberts for USM was dominant -- made some really tough shots down the stretch. Relieved to escape with a win! 22-2 ain't too shabby.

Cards Fan

It's really tough watching the playoffs without a dog in the fight. Of course it's stil exciting, but it doesn't have the same thrill factor as watching your team face off in those intense matches. Not quite the same feeling watching two teams you don't have a favorite between. It makes it easier to pick unbiased playoffs, though, so why not give it a shot.

#1 Tufts vs #8 Hamilton You can say Hamilton was the worst draw, but who exactly would Tufts have it easiest against? They beat Hamilton, Bates and Wesleyan all, but all happened in gritty finishes. Bowdoin was slightly more sound, but had they beaten Wesleyan, they would be fired up at this shot in the playoffs. There wasn't going to be a "good draw" for the Jumbos here. I know the weekend didn't mean much for them NESCAC playoff wise, but they are heading into the playoffs without any momentum, against a team with one of the top NESCAC talents ever seen. They haven't been surging, but all it takes is one night for the Conts to take over a gym. Bring on Kena Gilmour, and I predict Hamilton wins this one, taking it away 80-73.

#2 Colby vs #7 Bates A rivalry matchup in the playoffs is sacred. Both teams want it bad, it just comes down to whose day it really was. Colby hasn't played their best basketball lately, but Bates has been wildly inconsistent all season. Colby will take this one for a third time over Bates, 91-78.

#3 Amherst vs #6 Williams What a showdown this could turn out to be. Despite Williams early season struggles, they are surging off of key wins, as is Amherst. Both teams have potential to take over this game. Williams has taken two close ones this year, and it may be Amherst's turn. On the other hand, Matthew Karpowicz is a pretty good basketball player. Since I'm not allowed to pick a tie, Amherst takes this one in a nail biter, 58-55.

#4 Trinity vs #5 Middlebury What a shame for Middlebury that they don't have home court for this one. Right when it seemed as if Trinity was destined for average at best, they took over their season and placed themselves right in the middle of the playoff seedings. They should be incredibly proud of their season, but I believe it will be cut short here. I don't see a run from the Bantams. The ever consistent Middlebury squad will likely squander their hopes, and may be the most likely 5-8 team to make a huge run at the title. It's actually very unlucky that as a 4 seed you have to play one of the best teams in New England in the first round. Middlebury wins 91-75.

SpringSt7

I think Hamilton obviously has a puncher's chance to knock off Tufts, but I think it is worth mentioning that the monster Kena Gilmour performance we all think could come might just not matter. First of all, the efficiency just has not been great at all this year---45/31/79 overall, and 43/27/75 in conference. The 3pt shooting numbers wouldn't be as concerning if he wasn't shooting 6 of them a game, but he is.

So he hasn't shown the ability to be both a high volume scorer and also an equally high efficiency scorer, which in fairness, is damn near impossible with the attention he gets and with the players around him, so expecting him to be able to put up 30+ in a manner that is overall beneficial to the team's success just seems unlikely. Of the 7 games this season in which he has taken 20+ shots, and you can expect that Saturday will be the 8th, he has only shot above 50% once.

And in that game, a 39 point performance against Colby on 14-26 shooting, they lost! Eric Anderson scored 11 points and no one else scored in double digits.

I point this all out just to say that in order for Hamilton to really have a chance to take down Tufts, it is probably going to take an effort that we have yet to see from Kena Gilmour, and then some. Yes, Tufts' losing 2 in a row to close out the regular season does not inspire a lot of confidence but this Hamilton team barely snuck into the tournament, and Tufts still went 8-2. I think their chances are being vastly overrated.

JEFFFAN

How about some predictions from the assembled group here?   My predictions:

Tufts / Colby / Amherst / Middlebury win round one