You are probably right, lumber. The top 5 states overall for the NESCAC in order (no surprises): MA, CT, NY, NJ and PA. It is really top 4 and PA is a decent drop from NJ as the 5th. So teams are still filling 2/3 to 3/4 of their rosters, on average from those states. However, to your point, it is all over the place after that.
CA, FL, IL, NH, TX, GA, ME, TN and VA are next. With 10 teams in the league, the average is 1 to 4 players from those states on each squad. Then a bunch of states that average less than one player per team. NC, OH, RI, DC, CO are some worth noting.
Some are doing it because of admissions leeway as you bring up, some may have to to do it to draw players and some do not have to...
There is talent everywhere, but this gives some clues on where the focus lies. Certainly specific leagues and programs within those states as well.
Interesting Mole, great info.
Maybe I'm too simplistic on this but my contention is that nationwide diversity makes for more admissions flexibility.
Back in the day going back many years Tufts recruited a large number of eastern Ma and greater Boston prospects.
Today, I think Tufts admissions, and NESCAC admissions in general, value geographic diversity so they are much more flexible on a kid from Georgia or Texas or Oklahoma. If the Tufts staff presents another kid from Eastern Mass where they already have already accepted 8 recruits it can wear thin with admissions. They don't want 15 football players from Eastern Mass. I say Tufts admissions flexes downward a bit on academic credentials of prospects in other areas of the country to diversify the geographics of the incoming class.
It's a primary focus in all NESCAC admissions offices to bring in a diverse class from all areas of the country and I think Civetti and others are recognizing that and working in unison with Admissions toward this goal.