Pool B

Started by Ralph Turner, October 01, 2005, 02:12:36 PM

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Ralph Turner

Okay, it's October and the 5th weekend of play.  Let's start looking at the playoffs. ;D

The Handbook is out.

http://www.ncaa.org/library/handbooks/football/2005/2005_d3_football_handbook.pdf

The Handbook says that there will be 4 Pool B bids.  They calculated that by the Pool A access ratio.  There are 189 teams in the 21 AQ conferences which gives an access ratio of 1:9.00.

North Region Pool B's:  6   UAA (U Chicago and CWRU); 4 North Region teams from the UMAC (the non-recognized conference that has several members moving thru the Provisional Stages including football affiliates: Blackburn, Principia, Rockford, Westminster MO).

East Region Pool B's:  6  The unofficial ACFC (Brockport St and Buffalo State); Independents Becker, Husson, Mount Ida and Plymouth State.

West Region Pool B's:  12  NWC (6 and I assume that Lewis & Clark still counts) Independents for 2005 Chapman, Colorado College, Macalester and Menlo; UMAC (Maranatha Baptist and  Martin Luther).  I am assuming that Neb Wesleyan will not have enough D3 games to be recognized by the selection committee  (For that matter, will Lewis & Clark?)

South Region Pool B's: 13   UAA (Wash StL, Carnegie Mellon), Presidents AC 7, ACFC (Frostburg St, Salisbury, Wesley) Independent Huntingdon.  (I am assuming that Chowan, which is going to D2, is incorrectly listed.  Newport News Apprentice is recognized as an affililate NCAA member, but is ineligible for the playoffs.)

Thirty-seven (37) Pool B teams divided by the access Ratio of 1:9 gives 4.111 bids which is truncated to 4 bids.

Corrections appreciated.


Ralph Turner

#1
Whither Pool B--2011

There has been tremendous consolidation in D3 to take advantage of the Pool system of playoffs.  The Pools have provided a mechanism for equal access to every D3 Student athlete.  It is not the "Best 32".  That is another debate that has raged for 6+ years.  At least a 9-1 Hardin Simmons, whose only loss was to a D2, is no longer staying home as in 1998.

This consolidation into conferences is impacting the Pool B schools.  From published reports and some well-founded speculation, we can imagine where Pool B will be in 2011.  Of course, something bizarre may happen and the 2011 playoffs will no longer resemble the 2005 playoffs.  But let's look at the moves that are occurring by then and assume that these moves are permanent.

North Region:  2 teams Remain.  Four to Pool A.

UAA (U Chicago and CWRU) has announced their joint scheduling arrangement with the NCAC, but this does not alter the Pool B status of the UAA.

The "UMAC 4" affiliates include:

Rockford from the Northern Illinois-Iowa Conference which has announced its merger with the Lake MIchigan conference and should play in a Pool A Football by 2008.

Blackburn, Principia and Westminster MO  (SLAIC) are in discussion with the UMAC to play as an affiliates in a Pool A conference that should be online in Fall 2011 at the latest.

Here are the North Region Pool A conference with members in parentheses. CCIW (8 ). HCAC ( 8 with RHIT joining), NCAC (10), OAC (10) MIAA (7 with Tri-State on board and Wisconsin Lutheran returning to the "new Lake Michigan-NIIC" in 2008).  With the IBC disbanding in the Lake Michigan-NIIC merger, the "new conference" will have 8 football-playing members: Aurora, Benedictine, Concordia IL, Concordia WI, Lakeland, Maranatha Baptist and Rockford playing in the current UMAC and Wisconsin Lutheran.

By 2011, I anticipate 6 Pool A conferences with 51 members in the North Region. 

The remaining North Region Pool B schools are the UAA's UChicago and CWRU.

East Region:  6 Remain. Two to Pool A.

Buffalo State leaves the ACFC for the NJAC next year.
Plymouth St moves to the NEFC which also adds Coast Guard.

We have heard of SUNY-Maritime playing a varsity schedule in 2006 and Provisional SUNY-Morrisville scheduled to be full member in Fall 2010.  Both are investigating conference affiliations.

Becker, Husson and Mount Ida are members of the North Atlantic Conference (NAC).  Maine Maritime from the New England FC Bogan is also a member of the NAC.  Only 4 core members are required for a conference to sponsor a sport (cf. Liberty League).  An aggressive NAC could add 3 more affiliates by Fall 2009 and be Pool A by Fall 2011.  Some have expressed the lament of this weak group of teams getting a valuable Pool A bid, but it would be "legal".

The SUNY might have 4 core members by Fall 2011, Cortland, Buffalo, Brockport  and a Morrisville.  This might be at the expense of the NJAC, but I do not anticipate any moves in the next few years creating more Pool B schools.

Here are the East Region Pool A Conferences with the members in Parentheses. Empire 8 (7), Liberty League (7) with migration of the Coast Guard to the NEFC, MAC (11), NJAC (8 ) with migration of Buffalo State and NEFC (16) with the addition of Plymouth St and Coast Guard.


By 2011, I anticipate 5 Pool A conferences with 49 members in the East Region.

The remaining 6 Pool B: Brockport St, SUNY Maritime, SUNY Morrisville, Becker, Husson and Mount Ida.

Ralph Turner

#2
West Region: 4 Remain. Ten to Pool A.

Northwest Conference--Before the Lewis & Clark meltdown, the Northwest Conference was headed for Pool A status with the affiliation of Menlo.  Also, there have been rumors of George Fox and Pacific OR adding football.  Assuming that L&C gets back on track, or one of these adds football, the Northwest Conference will be Pool A.

Colorado College is strongly considered to be one of the candidates to be invited to the new SCAC, which has stated its intention to have two 6-member divisions.

The Upper Midwest AC is an old NAIA conference that has all of its members as either full or provisional, with the excpetion of Trinity Bible College.  (The UMAC will need to address the TBC issue, if its wishes NCAA status.)  By 2011, the UMAC will have 4 full football-playing members (Crown, Martin Luther, MN-Morris and Northwestern WI) that can form the core around which affiliates can join to get the AQ.  Currently, those likely candidates include football-playing SLIAC members Blackburn, Greenville, MacMurray, Principia, Westminster MO and new prospect Eureka.

This new 10-member conference would likely have Pool A status by 2011, if not sooner, depending on NCAA interpretation.  As a result, all of the Pool B's from this area would move to Pool A.

Here are the West Region Pool A Conferences with members in parentheses:  Iowa IAC (9), Midwest (10 ), Minnesota IAC (9), Northwest Conference (7), SCIAC (7), Upper Midwest AC (10), WIAC (8 ).

By 2011, I anticipate 7 Pool A conferences with 60 members in the West Region.

The remaining four West Region Pool B schools will be Chapman, MIAC prodigal Macalester, Nebraska Wesleyan, which has not played enough D3 games to qualify for playoff consideration in years, and Doane NE which has begun the exploratory phase of joining D3.

Ralph Turner

#3
South Region:  7 Remain. Seven to Pool A.

The Presidents AC has begun to add football-playing schools.  Thomas More joined last spring.  St Vincent's announced it is adding football, going thru the NCAA Provisional status and joining the Pres AC.  Likewise for Geneva, and even Seton Hill is rumored to be on the "Dance Card".  The Pres AC will have 9 teams by 2011, seven of whom are current Pool B's.

Huntingdon is now in its third year and LaGrange will start next year.  Let's assume that they do not find a Pool A conference by 2011, but rather fill out the schedules of the SCAC, ASC and USAC members.

UAA members Wash St Louis and Carnegie Mellon are likely to remain in Pool B.  They have a contract to fill their schedules with NCAC opponents.

The ACFC remains vulnerable.  Wesley is close to the NJAC.  Frostburg and Salisbury may have trouble finding a schedule if the conferences on the seaboard start expanding to the exclusion of non-conference schedules.  Neither fate, Pool A or Pool B would surprise me concerning these schools.  Brockport is "in the same boat", and the NCAA bylaws will not permit the ACFC to move to Pool A status as the IBC and NEFC are.

Here are the South Region Pool A conferences with members in parentheses.  ASC (9 with the loss of Austin College to the SCAC), Centennial (7), ODAC (7), President AC (9), SCAC (8 with AC replacing RHIT and the speculated addition of Colorado College), USAC (8 ).

By 2011, I anticipate 6 Pool A conferences with 48 members in the South Region.

The seven remaining Pool B schools are Wash StL, Carnegie Mellon, Huntingdon, LaGrange, Wesley, Frostburg St and Salisbury.

smedindy

So Ralph, is pool B going to be dead, or just weaker? Could the NCAA look at this and decide that this pool stuff doesn't work for football?

Ralph Turner

The current NCAA by-laws would calculate the Pool A access ratio to be that 24 conferences have 208 members which gives an access ratio of 1:8.666.  The 19 Pool B members would compete for 2 bids.

The ACFC "champ" might like that.  Does Brockport have a better chance at a bid in Pool B or competing in the NJAC?  Can they get enough games in Pool B?

The UAA has earned one playoff bid under the Pool System.  Would they fare better?

I anticipate that the East Region will consolidate some more.  If I were Mount Ida, Becker or Husson, I would put pressure on my North Atlantic Conference commissioner to bring fellow member Maine Maritime back, add 3-4 affiliates and get a Pool A.

Does the SUNYAC add football?  Cortland, Buffalo, Brockport, Morrisville as core members?  Hopefully not at the expense of the NJAC!

I anticipate that the members of the ACFC will find other homes.

I wonder why the UAA did not invite 3 specific members from the 10-member NCAC to affiliate with them so both conferences could have an AQ.  My SAT scores are probably not high enough to understand their reasoning, or maybe the playoffs interfere too much with studying!

We have seen numerous schools add football in the last decade.  It does help with the male:female ratio. 

I actually think that the conference structure has become stronger under the Pool system.  The Pool system is utilized for all NCAA D-III playoffs, so the NCAA won't scrap this just for football.  Also, I think that the Pools decrease the mischief that existed in the "good ol' boy system" previously.

The remaining 19 in this scenario will have a couple of acceptable teams getting bids.  It has also shunted the independents into conferences where a champ can be determined.  I believe the 32-team format will allow really good Pool C teams to play and win.  There will not likely be too many one-loss teams getting bids, and if the 32 team format allows HSU-Linfield matches that are non-region and don't hurt you, then we fans win!

I also believe that the 4 Pool B's this year will be worthy opponents. :)

This will be interesting to watch. 

Ralph Turner

My picks for Pool B rankings after the 5th week of games.

1)  Linfield--of course!
2)  Thiel--great win for the Tomcats! They just messed up everyone else.
3)  Salisbury--the depth at QB seems sufficient to carry them.
4)  W&J--too good for too long.  May finish 9-1/7-1 South Region and have a win over possible HCAC Champ Hanover.
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5)  Wesley--Big match with Salisbury may determine the ACFC's "bid".
6)  Whitworth--may finish with a West Region record of 6-1 or better.
7)  Huntingdon--Game of the year for the Hawks in San Antonio on Saturday.  I believe that HC must defeat Trinity this week to get a bid, especially after Thiel's win. And I believe that Huntingdon must run the "South Region" table.


There are no "bumblers" getting Pool B bids this year.

Pat Coleman

I refuse to think about 2011. :)
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Ralph Turner

Pat, I am glad you reminded me.  I left out my prediction that the D3football.com "hit counter" would have passed 42 million by then! ;)

TecmoYellowHat

Is Linfield an independent?
Go Bombers!

smedindy

No, they are in the NWC, which doesn't have enough football playing members to qualify for a "A". And they may or may not be able to get there, without some fancy footwork, thanks to the situation at Lewis & Clark.

TecmoYellowHat

What is the situation at Lewis and Clark?
Go Bombers!

Ralph Turner

tecmo, please see the Notables on Sept 8th, and go to page 25 on the Northwest Conference message board.

http://www.d3football.com/notables.php?date=2005-09-08

:(

K-Mack

Wow. I need to catch up here.

Pat, can you be sure to never delete this board?  ;D
Former author, Around the Nation ('01-'13)
Managing Editor, Kickoff
Voter, Top 25/Play of the Week/Gagliardi Trophy/Liberty Mutual Coach of the Year
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and one of the two voices behind the sonic #d3fb nerdery that is the ATN Podcast.

K-Mack

Quote from: Ralph Turner on October 01, 2005, 10:14:34 PM
Whither Pool B--2011 At least a 9-1 Hardin Simmons, whose only loss was to a D2, is no longer staying home as in 1998.

Sorry, nothing I've seen beats 10-0 Emory & Henry being the fifth of five unbeatens in the South Region in 1998, the last year of the old 16-team system.

Not that they would have won it all or anything ...
Former author, Around the Nation ('01-'13)
Managing Editor, Kickoff
Voter, Top 25/Play of the Week/Gagliardi Trophy/Liberty Mutual Coach of the Year
Nastradamus, Triple Take
and one of the two voices behind the sonic #d3fb nerdery that is the ATN Podcast.