Pool B

Started by Ralph Turner, October 01, 2005, 02:12:36 PM

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ExTartanPlayer

Quote from: Ron Boerger on November 06, 2013, 11:43:37 PM
Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on November 06, 2013, 07:53:46 PM

As wally has said, there is no good justification for TLU over Millsaps.  TLU beat Trinity by 4 and MissCollege by 3.  Millsaps beat the same teams by 3 (okay, call that a wash) and by 33 (!).  TLU's best win is probably 5-3 Louisiana College, but is that win REALLY much better than Millsaps over 5-3 Birmingham Southern?  Enough to offset the fact that Millsaps blew out Trinity and TLU barely won?

Millsaps didn't blow out Trinity (27-24); did you perhaps mean MC?

Yes, I meant MissCollege. Sorry for the error! Good catch.
I was small but made up for it by being slow...

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ExTartanPlayer

Quote from: wally_wabash on November 06, 2013, 09:45:33 PM
Just a couple of  more thoughts on the Pool B table in the south...

- We've seen things like this in the past where a ranking doesn't make much sense and then gets corrected the following week.  We might see some of that next Wednesday here because I can't believe that the folks on that RAC aren't hearing some of the same things that we are talking about here...or that some of them may actually be reading this stuff. 

- What impact is the game against Charlotte going to have on Wesley next week?  If they get completely hammered by the 49ers, I think it's tough to pretend that it never happened.  Week 10 is really a bad time to look bad, even if you are playing out of division. 

- I really have hard time seeing a situation where an undefeated Millsaps doesn't go in and doesn't go in via Pool B.  I just don't know how you can be one of two teams in that subsection of the division to be undefeated and not get one of the three bids.  It's not like Millsaps has played a grotesque schedule.  The SAA is plenty respectable.  When it's all said and done I think the order of selection for Pool B is going to be Millsaps first, TLU second, and Wesley third. 

- Wesley would really, really, really benefit from having anybody they beat get ranked.  That would really take some of the steam off of a Framingham/Wesley debate.

Agree that Millsaps may wind up above TLU and Wesley next week (one other thing worth noting is that Millsaps' SOS will rise at least a little the next two weeks, which hopefully will get the committee members attention). Frank Rossi made a good point that Wesley's lack of conference affiliation, which we typically think of as a bad thing because it's hard for them to schedule a lot of Division III games, is working in their favor because it gives them a way to get a high SOS that's basically unattainable for anyone in a conference to reach since conference play will always pull SOS numbers towards the middle.  The truth is that Wesley has played one truly elite team and got bushwhacked, five other teams that are "good but not great" and gone 4-1. I think they're benefitting from name recognition and Rowan's ridiculous over-ranking in the East (see the ERFP thread for my thoughts there, but Rowan at #4 is just plain laughable and there are at least two, maybe three teams that should be above them and it isn't even really a discussion).  In my mind the loss to Rowan really nixes any "aw, poor Wesley is really really good and played a really hard schedule" sympathy, even more so when you take a close look at the rest of their schedule and see that it's full of GOOD teams who have taken a couple losses each - as Wally said, they don't have an RR win to hang their hat on right now. Either Huntington or Salisbury gives them a chance, but as I've pointed out, Framingham also has a chance to pick up an RR win if 6-2 Endicott beats 6-2 Salve (current east #9) and slides into the final rankings.

If the Millsaps/TLU/Wesley order is corrected, I expect the Pool B selections to go Millsaps, TLU, Framingham.  I have no axe to grind with Wesley (other than the fact they ended my lone college playoff appearance :P) but it's just a fact that this year's team is not the juggernaut we are accustomed to.  I know we're getting into multiple degrees of separation here, but one final point: lest anyone think it is unfair to have TLU ranked above Wesley, TLU beat a decent LaCollege team that gave MHB a decent run a week before. I'm quite sure that MHB was more "up" for their game with Wesley but it's still a connection that can be considered, IMO.

Now watch Millsaps go out and lose this week and void everything written here.
I was small but made up for it by being slow...

http://athletics.cmu.edu/sports/fball/2011-12/releases/20120629a4jaxa

Ralph Turner

Thanks for the comment XTP.

I give Wesley the flip side credit for going 4-2 against a schedule that has been against Pool A contenders in the respective conferences.  Framingham may get in by criteria and being reviewed by the commitee against TLU and then against Millsaps and then against Wesley as the East Team on the board for Pool B.

Here is the summary of the Wesley season.

Beat Widener (tied for second in the MAC and gave MAC leader LebVal its loss.)
Beat Salisbury (in virtual tie for first in the E8)
Stomped Birmingham-Southern by 34 points (which only lost to Millsaps by 14)
Beat Huntingdon (which can earn the USAC Pool A with a win over Maryville. Does USAC Pool A Huntingdon show up in the super-secret final Regional Ranking instead of or ahead of Maryville?)
Loss is to Rowan which can win out and get the NJAC Pool A bid.
Loss to UMHB is probably the #2- or #3 overall seed.

I do think that Wesley would beat Framingham, but we won't see that game.

CruGuy

In the TLU vs Millsaps debate, I think there a few things to remember.

Especially concerning the common opponent in MC, Millsaps players slept in their own beds, dressed in their own locker room and then traveled 13 miles to play MC. The TLU players got on a bus and traveled 600 miles to beat MC. I'm sure there's no way we can prove this type of thing, but that might be the longest bus ride victory in D3 this year. Any team that wins on the road like that has my respect, no matter what the score or who the opponent, and that is why the common opponent game is so dangerous.

I also believe that the committee does consider TLU's victory over LC more impressive than Millsaps's victory over Birmingham Southern. I don't know if it is "REALLY much better". But LC played UMHB in Belton 17 pts better than Wesley did (and really made it a competitive game where Wesley was blown out from the get-go). BS got stomped by Wesley. Seeing how the committee views Wesley at the moment, I think they are the key to why the committee has TLU and Millsaps where they do at the moment.

And I think if Millsaps wins out they jump Wesley, but probably not TLU.

ExTartanPlayer

Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 07, 2013, 10:07:08 AM
Thanks for the comment XTP.

I give Wesley the flip side credit for going 4-2 against a schedule that has been against Pool A contenders in the respective conferences.  Framingham may get in by criteria and being reviewed by the commitee against TLU and then against Millsaps and then against Wesley as the East Team on the board for Pool B.

Here is the summary of the Wesley season.

Beat Widener (tied for second in the MAC and gave MAC leader LebVal its loss.)
Beat Salisbury (in virtual tie for first in the E8)
Stomped Birmingham-Southern by 34 points (which only lost to Millsaps by 14)
Beat Huntingdon (which can earn the USAC Pool A with a win over Maryville. Does USAC Pool A Huntingdon show up in the super-secret final Regional Ranking instead of or ahead of Maryville?)
Loss is to Rowan which can win out and get the NJAC Pool A bid.
Loss to UMHB is probably the #2- or #3 overall seed.

I do think that Wesley would beat Framingham, but we won't see that game.

Now here's where we diverge just a little in how we're looking at this.  A few weeks ago I posted a note about how Wesley might end up 4-2 with an incredible five games against Pool A teams and a 3-2 record in those games, and if THAT ends up actually BEING the case, I might be singing a slightly different tune.  So believe me, I do respect and understand the viewpoint.

However, I've thought some more about this and taken a more critical view.  That was based on the assumption that all of those teams actually would remain in contention for those Pool A's and that at least a couple of them would actually get there.

Widener gave LebVal their only loss, yes.  They also are 5-3 with losses to Lycoming and Albright.  If we mention their best win, we also should note that they've lost to two teams who LebVal beat.  Widener is a capable opponent but is NOT going to win a Pool A bid unless Leb Val is upset by Albright in the finale and they win a multiple-way-tie.  So that's a good win but not a "great" win.

Salisbury may be in a "virtual tie" for first in the Empire 8 but they also have three losses, including one to Christopher Newport, who is in FOURTH place in the USAC and doesn't even play Huntingdon.  Salisbury is a good team, also, but this still cannot be defined as a "great" win either.  It's a second "good" win.  If they lose to Ithaca this week, they're out of Pool A contention as well, and even if they win they'll need Alfred to lose another game to make the playoffs.  And Wesley needed to win this game on a Hail Mary!  THIS is the big quality win you're hanging your hat on?

Birmingham-Southern is a nice win.  They're 5-3 with two wins against first-year programs.  Again - a good team but not a "great" win by any stretch, although Wesley did really blow them out.

Huntingdon is 6-2 and probably the best chance to count as a true "quality win" if they win the next two weeks and take the USAC's pool A bid.  That is a good win.  If I'm in firm devil's advocate mode, I would point out that the USAC's Pool A representative has lost in the first round of the playoffs the last four years by scores of 72-14, 34-10, 59-7, and 55-23.  Some of those losses came against true top-notch powers, but that makes the point that a win over the USAC Pool A representative does not exactly stamp you as a national contender.

So that's your four wins.  Three 5-3 teams, two of whom have a faint pulse in the playoff race, and one 6-2 team that has a 50% chance of making the playoffs.  That's good, but not really THAT fantastic.  And I don't think they're getting hurt NEARLY as much as they should be by the Rowan loss.  Pointing out that Rowan could take the NJAC Pool A bid is disingenous for two reasons: one, the NJAC is wayyyyy down this year (ostensible second-place teams Brockport State and Cortland State both lost to Buffalo State, who will finish in the bottom half of the Empire 8; fourth-place TCNJ lost to FDU-Florham, who has been dominated in every single MAC game) and two, Rowan hasn't even dominated the NJAC!  They lost to Morrisville State, beat Montclair and Brockport in close games, beat Cortland by one point.  That is a symbol of a nice, tightly contested league, but also one without a truly great team.  Rowan's best win besides Wesley is probably, of all teams, Framingham State.

Bringing all that together, I guess my point is that the "glass half full" take says "Wow, they've played a lot of teams who are in the playoff race!"  The glass-half-empty take points out that all of those teams are actually 5-3 or 6-2 (except for Mary-Hardin Baylor, who outgained them 400-something to 26 through three quarters) and that it'll take a ton of breaks for more than ONE of them to actually be a playoff team.  Framingham beat Endicott, who might well take the NEFC bid, so it's possible that they'll end up with the same number of wins over playoff teams, right?

Frank Rossi made a good point that Wesley's disadvantage with the short schedule ALSO has the advantage of not being in a conference (which automatically drags the SOS towards .500), meaning that you don't get stuck with the games against a conference bottom-feeder which everyone in a conference "has" to play.  Therefore, playing a bunch of 6-4/7-3 type teams is enough to give you a really good-looking SOS just by avoiding the inevitable games against 2-8 and 1-9 teams that conference schedules dictate everyone has to play.

I don't have a dog in this fight.  I've just tried to parse this down with more detail than the usual assumption that Wesley played a really tough schedule because their SOS figure is huge.  They did play a pretty tough schedule, but getting annihilated by one really good team, losing to a second "good" team, and beating a bunch of "good-ish" teams, on closer examination, is not an "OMG this team totally deserves to be in the playoffs" resume.  This is a different conversation if they lost to MHB by a field goal, or if they beat Rowan...but they didn't do either of those things.  You get credit for losing to really good teams like MHB if you actually play them close.  Wesley didn't.  Taking that off their resume, the 4-1 record against other "decent-to-good" teams is nice but if we're being honest, isn't that about the record we would expect nearly every team in the regional rankings to record against that same schedule?
I was small but made up for it by being slow...

http://athletics.cmu.edu/sports/fball/2011-12/releases/20120629a4jaxa

jknezek

I agree with Ex. I'm having a tough time seeing it with Wesley. I just don't see the "quality wins" that other people are putting forward. I understand how the SOS gets to 1, but that doesn't mean I agree with it. Again, it's easy to put together a tough SOS when you aren't in a conference. That doesn't mean the teams you played are all that good.

Generally I like Wesley as a team. They are big, strong, fast, and probably one of the 32 best teams in the country. They are certainly better than other teams that will make the playoffs this year. But that doesn't mean they should make the playoffs this year. Wesley's D3 win percentage is 66%. That's a 6 or 7 win team with a full schedule. Very few of those teams make the playoffs, and none of them make the playoffs through "selections."

Losing to UMHB I was fine with. Although not real good with the way they got hammered, but fine, extenuating circumstances and all that. Losing to Rowan? No, you made a schedule that was high risk/high reward. In this case, I don't see the reward over a 10-0 or 9-1 team. It is inexcusable they are ranked ahead of Millsaps right now and I can only hope it will be corrected going forward.

In general I don't have a problem with Wesley making the playoffs, but I'd have a real hard time if they were "selected" in front of a very respectable Millsaps team at 10-0. I might even have a problem if they were selected over a 9-1 Millsaps or Framingham. Throw them into Pool C with the other 2 loss teams and lets get a real comparison of whose wins and losses are really the best and deserving of a second chance. 10-0 or 9-1 conference champions, even if they don't have an AQ due to a rules quirk, deserve to go to the dance.

ExTartanPlayer

Maybe this is the wrong way to look at it, but another twist:

Put Wesley in the NJAC this year and keep the OOC game with UMHB.  This gives them a longer schedule but eliminates the big SOS boost described from playing a bunch of currently 5-3 teams (like I said, they get credit for scheduling tough, but in a conference they would have three or four gimmes added to that schedule).  Suppose they beat everyone but Rowan and UMHB, thereby losing the tiebreaker to Rowan for the NJAC title.  If they're an 8-2 team in Pool C with that resume, where do they fall on the Pool C board?  They're probably somewhere around 8th (check out the Pool C board, it's loaded with one-loss teams that have a loss of equal quality or better than Wesley's UMHB loss).

As we said: this is different if Salisbury is 7-1 and cruising to the Empire 8 title, or Widener is 7-1 and cruising to the MAC title...but they aren't.  Wesley deserves credit for scheduling quality teams but we have to evaluate them based on what the teams actually ARE, not what the schedule "could have been" on paper.  You don't get credit for playing five playoff teams unless you ACTUALLY play five playoff teams.
I was small but made up for it by being slow...

http://athletics.cmu.edu/sports/fball/2011-12/releases/20120629a4jaxa

art76

#1072
Like was said earlier by someone else, "I've no dog in this fight" but maybe Pat or someone can clarify the Pool B selection process. As I understand it there are 3 or 4 provisional conferences, some provisional teams and the independents all in this pool. My question is, does the committee consider location while determining who's in or are the brackets determined after the the 32 teams are finalized? I suspect the latter. Anyone know for sure?

Additionally, do Pool B teams rank higher in the 32 team bracket than Pool C teams? Why or why not?
You don't have a soul. You are a soul.
You have a body. - C.S. Lewis

ExTartanPlayer

Quote from: art76 on November 07, 2013, 01:39:37 PM
Like was said earlier by someone else, "I've no dog in this fight" but maybe Pat or someone can clarify the Pool B selection process. As I understand it there are 3 or 4 provisional conferences, some provisional teams and the independents all in this pool. My question is, does the committee consider location while determining who's in or are the brackets determined after the the 32 teams are finalized? I suspect the latter. Anyone know for sure?

Brackets are determined after the selections are made; location is NOT a consideration when selecting the 32 teams.

1) The 24 Pool A bids are all locked in after play wraps up.

2) The 3 Pool B teams are chosen from the pool of independents + teams in conferences with no AQ bid due to size or provisional status (UAA, SAA, SCAC, MASCAC, maybe one or two others that I'm missing, for this year anyway).

3) The 5 Pool C teams are chosen from the remaining at-large teams (including any leftover Pool B teams) in a process where the top team from each region is on the board for discussion, and the best of the four candidates is selected.  That region's "next team up" takes the place of the team that was just selected and the discussion is repeated.  This happens five teams until all 32 teams are determined.  Once the 32 teams are determined, then brackets are figured out.  At least, so it should be.

One thing I am not clear on re: Pool B selection is whether it occurs the same way that Pool C selection is done or not.  I don't know if they look at the top teams "by region" or just lump everyone together and try to pick them.  This is relevant because if Wesley is still ranked over Millsaps in the final regional rankings, at some point Wesley will be discussed vs. Framingham (the only realistic B candidate from the East) and it's vaguely possible that the folks will look at a Framingham/Wesley comparison different than they would look at the Framingham/Millsaps comparison.
I was small but made up for it by being slow...

http://athletics.cmu.edu/sports/fball/2011-12/releases/20120629a4jaxa

art76

Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on November 07, 2013, 01:48:21 PM

One thing I am not clear on re: Pool B selection is whether it occurs the same way that Pool C selection is done or not.  I don't know if they look at the top teams "by region" or just lump everyone together and try to pick them.  This is relevant because if Wesley is still ranked over Millsaps in the final regional rankings, at some point Wesley will be discussed vs. Framingham (the only realistic B candidate from the East) and it's vaguely possible that the folks will look at a Framingham/Wesley comparison different than they would look at the Framingham/Millsaps comparison.

I think that the West only has Macalester as a possible Pool B candidate, and someone with more vested interest can certainly correct me on that.
You don't have a soul. You are a soul.
You have a body. - C.S. Lewis

ExTartanPlayer

Quote from: art76 on November 07, 2013, 02:19:25 PM
Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on November 07, 2013, 01:48:21 PM

One thing I am not clear on re: Pool B selection is whether it occurs the same way that Pool C selection is done or not.  I don't know if they look at the top teams "by region" or just lump everyone together and try to pick them.  This is relevant because if Wesley is still ranked over Millsaps in the final regional rankings, at some point Wesley will be discussed vs. Framingham (the only realistic B candidate from the East) and it's vaguely possible that the folks will look at a Framingham/Wesley comparison different than they would look at the Framingham/Millsaps comparison.

I think that the West only has Macalester as a possible Pool B candidate, and someone with more vested interest can certainly correct me on that.

Oh, I know there are barely any Pool B teams in certain regions.  It's not that there would be any realistic candidates from the West or North.  It's that if selection is conducted this way, the order in which the Pool B candidates from the South are ranked becomes important because a Framingham/Wesley comparison might be different than a Framingham/Millsaps comparison.  I could see TLU, Framingham, Wesley being the order if Wesley vs. Framingham is discussed first.  If Millsaps leapfrogs Wesley in the South order, then I could see TLU, Millsaps, and then the Framingham vs. Wesley discussion for the last B spot.
I was small but made up for it by being slow...

http://athletics.cmu.edu/sports/fball/2011-12/releases/20120629a4jaxa

wesleydad

This is a fun discussion about Wesley and whether they warrant a B spot.  I will give you that they should not be ahead of Millsaps or Tex Luth, so give them the first 2 spots.  We are left with Framingham and Wesley for the last spot.  They have a common opponent in Rowan, both losing so that is a wash.  I may be going out on a limb here, :o, but I am pretty certain that if Framingham played UMHB they get crushed as bad or worse than Wesley did.  If we are discussing who is better, Wesley or Framingham, I see no debate Wesley is better.  Framingham is not likely going to beat any of the teams that Wesley did whether they be having as good as expected season or not.  Switch the schedules and what record does Framingham have? Ceratinly no better than Wesley's and likely much worse. Pretty certain that Wesley would be 9 - 1 with the only loss to Rowan playing Framingham's schedule.  I understand all the criteria and was surprised when I saw Wesley at 4, too high in my opinion.  But as some have stated on the East board, Framingham at 6 is also way too high.  Is Wesley one of the best 32 teams, no doubt even with the way they have struggled this year.  Should they make the playoffs, maybe - maybe not.  But if the discussion comes down to them or Framingham for the 3rd and final spot, then yes they should be in.  It will be fun to see it play out and should Millsaps, or Tex Luth lose then it gets even more messy.

jknezek

Quote from: wesleydad on November 07, 2013, 03:46:56 PM
This is a fun discussion about Wesley and whether they warrant a B spot.  I will give you that they should not be ahead of Millsaps or Tex Luth, so give them the first 2 spots.  We are left with Framingham and Wesley for the last spot.  They have a common opponent in Rowan, both losing so that is a wash.  I may be going out on a limb here, :o, but I am pretty certain that if Framingham played UMHB they get crushed as bad or worse than Wesley did.  If we are discussing who is better, Wesley or Framingham, I see no debate Wesley is better.  Framingham is not likely going to beat any of the teams that Wesley did whether they be having as good as expected season or not.  Switch the schedules and what record does Framingham have? Ceratinly no better than Wesley's and likely much worse. Pretty certain that Wesley would be 9 - 1 with the only loss to Rowan playing Framingham's schedule.  I understand all the criteria and was surprised when I saw Wesley at 4, too high in my opinion.  But as some have stated on the East board, Framingham at 6 is also way too high.  Is Wesley one of the best 32 teams, no doubt even with the way they have struggled this year.  Should they make the playoffs, maybe - maybe not.  But if the discussion comes down to them or Framingham for the 3rd and final spot, then yes they should be in.  It will be fun to see it play out and should Millsaps, or Tex Luth lose then it gets even more messy.

I agree with everything in this post except the conclusion. The big difference that I see is Framingham doesn't have AQ access this year based on a date quirk. If the 16 team NEFC had split long ago, which they should have done, Framingham would have had an AQ slot. I don't like punishing those kids based on a silly quirk. If they go 9-1, conference champs, one loss that is essentially the same as one of 4-2 Wesley's loss, they should go to the dance.

Now, is the world fair? Of course not. Would Wesley win on the field? Extremely likely. Is the tournament about putting the 32 best teams together? Of course not. It's about equal access. So what furthers the NCAA's overarching goal? Giving 4-2 Wesley a bid, a team that had to win 2/3rds of its games, or giving 9-1 Framingham State a bid, a team that had to win 80-90% of its games? My sympathy lies with Framingham who should, other than a quirk, already have an AQ.

Shoulda, woulda, coulda and all that for the MASCAC, I understand. The same for the SAA. But I think provisional teams like this should be given the benefit of the doubt, when possible, as other than an arbitrary date there would be no debate.

Ralph Turner

Great discussion!  Thanks.

Mr. Ypsi

Pat just dropped a bombshell in the Pool C board: they are NOT using 'once ranked, always ranked' this year.

I haven't reviewed the discussion of Pool B options to see if anyone way assuming they were, but it could make quite a difference in results vs. RROs. 

Since now the ONLY results against RROs that matter are those regionally ranked in the secret final rankings, good luck to those trying to project the field!! ;D