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Messages - augie_superfan

#1
Makes sense, I was just a bit shocked to see 10 of Augie's 19 freshman hailing from Colorado this year.
#2
Does anyone know why Augustana has had so many recruits from Colorado over the past few years?  Is there some connection out there?  It's been several years now where baseball is getting a lot of recruits from Colorado.  It seems other sports have been doing the same (men's and women's basketball, etc).  Maybe it's a school-wide geographical emphasis or something?
#3
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: Top 25 talk
November 16, 2017, 10:26:35 AM
Is there a Hoopsville Classic this year?
#4
What a fantastic run for this rather young Augie team.  Can't wait to see them in Salem next weekend!
#5
Quote from: Gregory Sager on March 03, 2017, 08:22:27 PM
Chrishawn Orange hit a running trey at the buzzer from the top of the key as Augie dethroned St. Thomas, 77-74. Augie was down by eight with under 40 seconds remaining, and came back to tie it up with ten seconds remaining on a pair of Nolan Ebel FTs. The UST ballhandler was called for a charge with three seconds left, and Orange threaded his way through the defense to hit the 21-foot runner as time expired.

That was a crazy last minute, unbelievable!
#6
Just some fun with numbers (assuming 50% chance of winning each remaining game)

Hosting chances
Augie - 88.7%  (75% by winning at least 1 game, 12.3% by losing both but no one getting to 11 wins, plus some small tiebreakers)
North Park - 5.7%
IWU - 4.7%
Carthage - 1%

Average # of wins for each place in conference
1st - 12
2nd - 10.3
3rd - 9.8
4th - 8.9
5th - 8.4

Odds of 4th place having "x" amount of wins
Wins    % of time      chances there would be a tie for 4th?
  8          0.2%          100%  (4-way tie for 4th-7th place)
  9         72.7%         90.1%
10        26.9%          8.7%
11         0.2%           0%    (4-way tie for 1st-4th place)

I don't think anyone can clinch or be eliminated from the tournament tomorrow night but there are too many multiple team tiebreakers to consider at this point, we will see after Wednesday's results and things might be a bit more clear
#7
National topics / Re: BB: Pool C
May 13, 2016, 08:34:25 PM
Was looking at some of the possible Pool C teams and a lot of them have hurt their chances in a big way.  It really appears to have softened the bubble quite a bit.  It will be interesting to see how these conference tournaments finish up.

Webster            1-2
Ohio Wesleyan  0-2
Adrian               0-2
St. Thomas       0-2
Endicott            1-2
Western NE       0-2
Stevens             0-2
#8
Central Region / Re: BB: Central Region Rankings
April 28, 2016, 09:27:09 PM
Rankings seem pretty reasonable.  I'm surprised Augustana is ahead of Buena Vista.  One of those teams might have a shot at a Pool C bid if they finish the season strong and lose in their conference championship games (barring a ton of upsets across the nation).
#9
Central Region / Re: BB: Central Region Rankings
April 25, 2016, 09:49:09 AM
My Central Rankings through this weekend's games:

1.  North Central (IL)
2.  Wartburg
3.  Grinnell
4.  Wash U
5.  Buena Vista
6.  Augustana

Outside looking in

7.  Webster
8.  Ill. Wesleyan
9.  Luther
10. Beloit

Quote from: augie_superfan on April 22, 2016, 11:48:32 AM
My central rankings would look like this:

1.  Wartburg
2.  North Central (IL)
3.  Buena Vista
4.  Grinnell
5.  Wash U
6.  Augustana

Outside looking in

7.  Webster
8.  Ill. Wesleyan
9.  Wheaton (IL)
#10
Central Region / Re: BB: Central Region Rankings
April 22, 2016, 11:48:32 AM
My central rankings would look like this:

1.  Wartburg
2.  North Central (IL)
3.  Buena Vista
4.  Grinnell
5.  Wash U
6.  Augustana

Outside looking in

7.  Webster
8.  Ill. Wesleyan
9.  Wheaton (IL)
#11
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: 2016 NCAA Tournament
March 16, 2016, 02:02:44 PM
Here are the final odds for the Final 4 and Championship game:

Team                    Final 2          Win Championship
Benedictine            79.6%                51.1%
Amherst                 20.4%                 6.1%
CNU                      35.6%                 12.4%
St. Thomas            64.4%                 30.4%


#13
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: 2016 NCAA Tournament
March 09, 2016, 10:58:08 PM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on March 09, 2016, 09:48:28 PM
Quote from: augie_superfan on March 09, 2016, 07:44:30 PM
Updated Tourney Odds

http://sites.google.com/site/d3basketballindex/2016-tourney-odds-before-sweet-16
Is there a webpage for the women?

Sorry, I don't follow the women very closely but off the top of my head I'd say 60% Thomas More wins it all
#15
Multi-Regional Topics / Re: 2016 NCAA Tournament
March 06, 2016, 10:19:45 PM
Endicott over Catholic would be #1 by my calculations.