2016 NCAA Tournament

Started by Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan), February 26, 2016, 08:10:43 AM

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augie_superfan

For those that are interested, I simulated the tournament 1 million times using win probabilities calculated from a Massey-like system but adjusting a little bit for the unpredictability of the tournament.  The following link shows the chance that each team makes it to a given round.  They will be updated with each round.

http://sites.google.com/site/d3basketballindex/2016-tourney

The "worst" championship game that took place in 1 million simulations was Husson vs. Brooklyn.  The "best" and most likely championship game was Augie vs. Benedictine (roughly 13% of the time).

As for the closest 1st round matchups, the simulation predicted the following games:

Cortland (50.8%) over WPI
Wooster (53.5%) over Lancaster Bible
LaGrange (56.9%) over Birmingham-Southern
Lynchburg (57%) over Scranton

Largest mismatches:

Augustana (99%) over Westminster (MO)
Ohio Wesleyan (93.1%) over Pitt-Greensburg
John Carroll (87.1%) over St. Vincent
Susquehanna (84.9%) over SUNY-Old Westbury

Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)


First two wins of the tournament: Hardin-Simmons and Whitman, the first NCAA Tournament wins in both programs histories.
Lead Columnist for D3hoops.com
@ryanalanscott just about anywhere

Ralph Turner

#47
Quote from: augie_superfan on March 03, 2016, 06:46:27 PM
For those that are interested, I simulated the tournament 1 million times using win probabilities calculated from a Massey-like system but adjusting a little bit for the unpredictability of the tournament.  The following link shows the chance that each team makes it to a given round.  They will be updated with each round.

http://sites.google.com/site/d3basketballindex/2016-tourney

The "worst" championship game that took place in 1 million simulations was Husson vs. Brooklyn.  The "best" and most likely championship game was Augie vs. Benedictine (roughly 13% of the time).

As for the closest 1st round matchups, the simulation predicted the following games:

Cortland (50.8%) over WPI
Wooster (53.5%) over Lancaster Bible
LaGrange (56.9%) over Birmingham-Southern
Lynchburg (57%) over Scranton

Largest mismatches:

Augustana (99%) over Westminster (MO)
Ohio Wesleyan (93.1%) over Pitt-Greensburg
John Carroll (87.1%) over St. Vincent
Susquehanna (84.9%) over SUNY-Old Westbury

Quote from: Hoops Fan on March 04, 2016, 12:06:50 AM

First two wins of the tournament: Hardin-Simmons and Whitman, the first NCAA Tournament wins in both programs histories.
My bias is that a cross country flight in the first round from one part of the country to another by the lower seed is about 8-10 points.

Even Wheaton IL has had that challenge when they were flown to UTDallas in 2010 and lost to an ASC school.   :o


Benedictine 89% chance of making Sweet 16.

HOPEful

Quote from: augie_superfan on March 03, 2016, 06:46:27 PM
For those that are interested, I simulated the tournament 1 million times using win probabilities calculated from a Massey-like system but adjusting a little bit for the unpredictability of the tournament.  The following link shows the chance that each team makes it to a given round.  They will be updated with each round.

http://sites.google.com/site/d3basketballindex/2016-tourney

Benedictine and Augustana are good teams this year that very well could take home the banner, but a 26.1% and 21% chance to win the whole thing!? That's almost even money those two vs. the field.

And Augie could potentially have to go through Hope (#9), Emory(#25), Whitworth (#3), Christopher Newport(#4), and Benidictine(#2) to do it... color me skeptical, but I might have to call your "adjustments" into question :)

Let's go Dutchmen!

2015-2016 1-&-Done Tournament Fantasy League Co-Champion

AO

Quote from: augie_superfan on March 03, 2016, 06:46:27 PM
For those that are interested, I simulated the tournament 1 million times using win probabilities calculated from a Massey-like system but adjusting a little bit for the unpredictability of the tournament.  The following link shows the chance that each team makes it to a given round.  They will be updated with each round.

http://sites.google.com/site/d3basketballindex/2016-tourney

The "worst" championship game that took place in 1 million simulations was Husson vs. Brooklyn.  The "best" and most likely championship game was Augie vs. Benedictine (roughly 13% of the time).

As for the closest 1st round matchups, the simulation predicted the following games:

Cortland (50.8%) over WPI
Wooster (53.5%) over Lancaster Bible
LaGrange (56.9%) over Birmingham-Southern
Lynchburg (57%) over Scranton

Largest mismatches:

Augustana (99%) over Westminster (MO)
Ohio Wesleyan (93.1%) over Pitt-Greensburg
John Carroll (87.1%) over St. Vincent
Susquehanna (84.9%) over SUNY-Old Westbury
Do you have historical upset records?  Would be fun to see if anything has surpassed the 1.1% chance my team had of beating St. Thomas last year and the 0.0% chance they had to get to the sweet 16.

Ralph Turner

Quote from: AO on March 04, 2016, 03:19:21 PM
Quote from: augie_superfan on March 03, 2016, 06:46:27 PM
For those that are interested, I simulated the tournament 1 million times using win probabilities calculated from a Massey-like system but adjusting a little bit for the unpredictability of the tournament.  The following link shows the chance that each team makes it to a given round.  They will be updated with each round.

http://sites.google.com/site/d3basketballindex/2016-tourney

The "worst" championship game that took place in 1 million simulations was Husson vs. Brooklyn.  The "best" and most likely championship game was Augie vs. Benedictine (roughly 13% of the time).

As for the closest 1st round matchups, the simulation predicted the following games:

Cortland (50.8%) over WPI
Wooster (53.5%) over Lancaster Bible
LaGrange (56.9%) over Birmingham-Southern
Lynchburg (57%) over Scranton

Largest mismatches:

Augustana (99%) over Westminster (MO)
Ohio Wesleyan (93.1%) over Pitt-Greensburg
John Carroll (87.1%) over St. Vincent
Susquehanna (84.9%) over SUNY-Old Westbury
Do you have historical upset records?  Would be fun to see if anything has surpassed the 1.1% chance my team had of beating St. Thomas last year and the 0.0% chance they had to get to the sweet 16.
+1!  Thanks for recalling that game. I cannot think of another upset so y-u-u-u-u-g-e!  (LOL!)


augie_superfan

Quote from: HOPEful on March 04, 2016, 02:29:14 PM
Quote from: augie_superfan on March 03, 2016, 06:46:27 PM
For those that are interested, I simulated the tournament 1 million times using win probabilities calculated from a Massey-like system but adjusting a little bit for the unpredictability of the tournament.  The following link shows the chance that each team makes it to a given round.  They will be updated with each round.

http://sites.google.com/site/d3basketballindex/2016-tourney

Benedictine and Augustana are good teams this year that very well could take home the banner, but a 26.1% and 21% chance to win the whole thing!? That's almost even money those two vs. the field.

And Augie could potentially have to go through Hope (#9), Emory(#25), Whitworth (#3), Christopher Newport(#4), and Benidictine(#2) to do it... color me skeptical, but I might have to call your "adjustments" into question :)

Understandable, but the adjustments I reference actually make it "less" likely that a favorite will win thus decreasing the top team's probabilities a bit.  If you don't believe the rankings of a computer ranking system then you shouldn't trust these either.

Out of curiosity, what do you think Hope's chances of beating Augustana are?

HOPEful

Quote from: augie_superfan on March 04, 2016, 06:03:59 PM
Understandable, but the adjustments I reference actually make it "less" likely that a favorite will win thus decreasing the top team's probabilities a bit.  If you don't believe the rankings of a computer ranking system then you shouldn't trust these either.

Out of curiosity, what do you think Hope's chances of beating Augustana are?

I was kidding with the bias suggestion ;) as for Hope's chances, it's hard to say. If Brock Benson and Harrison Blackledge can stay out of foul trouble and Hope can hit their 3s, 50:50. Otherwise, 20%?

What are the odds your center plays tomorrow?
Let's go Dutchmen!

2015-2016 1-&-Done Tournament Fantasy League Co-Champion

wooscotsfan

Quote from: Hoops Fan on March 01, 2016, 12:00:48 PM

Two long tourney win streaks ended this year already - both IWU and Virginia Wesleyan had won at least one game in six consecutive NCAA tournaments.  Neither made this field.

Whitworth and Wooster have the longest active streaks and will look to each add an 8th consecutive year.

Amherst is working on their 6th.

Wooster won their first round game against Lancaster Bible so they have won at least one game in 8 consecutive NCAA tournaments.

augie_superfan

Quote from: AO on March 04, 2016, 03:19:21 PM
Quote from: augie_superfan on March 03, 2016, 06:46:27 PM
For those that are interested, I simulated the tournament 1 million times using win probabilities calculated from a Massey-like system but adjusting a little bit for the unpredictability of the tournament.  The following link shows the chance that each team makes it to a given round.  They will be updated with each round.

http://sites.google.com/site/d3basketballindex/2016-tourney

The "worst" championship game that took place in 1 million simulations was Husson vs. Brooklyn.  The "best" and most likely championship game was Augie vs. Benedictine (roughly 13% of the time).

As for the closest 1st round matchups, the simulation predicted the following games:

Cortland (50.8%) over WPI
Wooster (53.5%) over Lancaster Bible
LaGrange (56.9%) over Birmingham-Southern
Lynchburg (57%) over Scranton

Largest mismatches:

Augustana (99%) over Westminster (MO)
Ohio Wesleyan (93.1%) over Pitt-Greensburg
John Carroll (87.1%) over St. Vincent
Susquehanna (84.9%) over SUNY-Old Westbury
Do you have historical upset records?  Would be fun to see if anything has surpassed the 1.1% chance my team had of beating St. Thomas last year and the 0.0% chance they had to get to the sweet 16.

Only other year I did something similar was 2012 so I don't have much to compare to but I would assume last year's run was the most unlikely in quite some time.

TheOsprey

#56
Stockton in OT. 

Nice live stream feed.

Stockton is out!!  Owwww TGISTGUSTOKN?$&@&?

David Collinge

Plenty of upsets to go around tonight. Catholic, Plattsburgh, North Central, and now Marietta all go down.

pg04

Quote from: David Collinge on March 04, 2016, 10:00:32 PM
Plenty of upsets to go around tonight. Catholic, Plattsburgh, North Central, and now Marietta all go down.

Yes basically any team that I chose in the fantasy leagues run by Greek.

Gregory Sager

Boy, do I feel sorry for Jamir Haddon.
"To see what is in front of one's nose is a constant struggle." -- George Orwell