2017 Playoffs

Started by Andy Jamison - Walla Walla Wildcat, October 31, 2017, 01:17:58 PM

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MonroviaCat

Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 02, 2017, 12:57:02 PM
As jknezek and I have been posting over on the various South Region boards, geographic proximity has the South-West bracket:

Chapman
at UMHB

HSU (Pool C)
at Linfield  (Pool A)

Geographic proximity overrides all other considerations.  Linfield can be 2W or 3W or even 4W. We have only 2 or 3 flights among the travel orphans.
well almost--I mean if it overrides all consideration then you do Chapman at Linfield and HSU at MHB (1 flight).  But I agree with your projection....
Go Cats!

Ralph Turner

Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 02, 2017, 12:59:34 PM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 02, 2017, 12:57:02 PM
As jknezek and I have been posting over on the various South Region boards, geographic proximity has the South-West bracket:

Chapman
at UMHB

HSU (Pool C)
at Linfield  (Pool A)

Geographic proximity overrides all other considerations.  Linfield can be 2W or 3W or even 4W. We have only 2 or 3 flights among the travel orphans.
well almost--I mean if it overrides all consideration then you do Chapman at Linfield and HSU at MHB (1 flight).  But I agree with your projection....
A second flight in Round 2 if your first round is the actual bracket.

MonroviaCat

Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 02, 2017, 01:44:28 PM
Quote from: MonroviaCat on November 02, 2017, 12:59:34 PM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on November 02, 2017, 12:57:02 PM
As jknezek and I have been posting over on the various South Region boards, geographic proximity has the South-West bracket:

Chapman
at UMHB

HSU (Pool C)
at Linfield  (Pool A)

Geographic proximity overrides all other considerations.  Linfield can be 2W or 3W or even 4W. We have only 2 or 3 flights among the travel orphans.
well almost--I mean if it overrides all consideration then you do Chapman at Linfield and HSU at MHB (1 flight).  But I agree with your projection....
A second flight in Round 2 if your first round is the actual bracket.
right--gauranteed 2 flights either way but a possible 3rd in the first option (and not in the second).
Go Cats!

wally_wabash

I did this very quickly...a mock bracket!  Based on the selections I made in my projections last night.  I'll put this out there...crush it as you see fit.  It's a starting point.  :) 



My top seeds are UMHB, UW-O, Mount Union, Delaware Valley. 

My next four are Wartburg, Linfield, Wittenberg, and Brockport.  Generally, you would have pods built around those four teams and those pods would wind up opposite the four-team pods built around the top seeds...but Linfield's isolation throws this out the window.  So, bad news for the UMHB region, good news for the Oshkosh region which doesn't have one of my 5-8 seeds in it...but I think the replacement pod there on the bottom half o the Oshkosh bracket is plenty challenging, so nobody is getting off too lightly. 

One flight in the first round, and I think just two for sure in the second.  There might be something else you could do with the Berry/Huntingdon winner that doesn't guarantee a flight, but I'd have to work through some more mocks. 
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Pat Coleman

Linfield having an automatic bid is not a factor in it getting home field vs. HSU -- if that's why you've listed the Pools next to their names.
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FCGrizzliesGrad

Quote from: wally_wabash on November 02, 2017, 02:41:03 PM
One flight in the first round, and I think just two for sure in the second.  There might be something else you could do with the Berry/Huntingdon winner that doesn't guarantee a flight, but I'd have to work through some more mocks.
Huntingdon I don't think can reach anyone besides Berry. Berry I believe is in range of Franklin, W&L, and Witt (Berry to Witt is 500 while Witt to Berry is 499). When I made mention of a possible orphan bracket over in the Pool C thread a while back the one thing I was concerned about (as a Franklin guy) was a possibility of Franklin @ Witt round 1 because they can both reach Berry.
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Ralph Turner

I have no problem with Huntingdon versus Berry in the first round.

Undefeated Berry deserves to host a first round game.  Going to Berry is the logical choice for Huntingdon, and  possibly the best chance to win a game versus being flown to an "orphan" like HSU Linfield or UMHB.

wesleydad

Quote from: wally_wabash on November 02, 2017, 02:41:03 PM
I did this very quickly...a mock bracket!  Based on the selections I made in my projections last night.  I'll put this out there...crush it as you see fit.  It's a starting point.  :) 



My top seeds are UMHB, UW-O, Mount Union, Delaware Valley. 

My next four are Wartburg, Linfield, Wittenberg, and Brockport.  Generally, you would have pods built around those four teams and those pods would wind up opposite the four-team pods built around the top seeds...but Linfield's isolation throws this out the window.  So, bad news for the UMHB region, good news for the Oshkosh region which doesn't have one of my 5-8 seeds in it...but I think the replacement pod there on the bottom half o the Oshkosh bracket is plenty challenging, so nobody is getting off too lightly. 

One flight in the first round, and I think just two for sure in the second.  There might be something else you could do with the Berry/Huntingdon winner that doesn't guarantee a flight, but I'd have to work through some more mocks.

Like it.

UfanBill

Nice work Wally. You are very well versed in NCAA criteria to be able to conjure this up quickly. I'd take this as it stands right now but we all know there could be a dozen changes by next week!
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Teamski

Quote from: UfanBill on November 02, 2017, 09:53:47 PM
Nice work Wally. You are very well versed in NCAA criteria to be able to conjure this up quickly. I'd take this as it stands right now but we all know there could be a dozen changes by next week!

I concur...... ;)


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wally_wabash

I'll do a projection Wednesday after the rankings come out. I'll probably skip the mock bracket as I'm 99% sure that D3football.com will do one and Pat is way better with the geography than I am. 

I do expect a very different projection as some things will have shuffled around due to Week 10 results and the committees applying all of the criteria this week. 
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HansenRatings

#26
I looked at the last 10 years of tournament brackets, and made a proximity index for conferences. These are the weights I use to project out Stagg Bowl odds before the bracket gets posted. In developing the weighted average, a first-round matchup was given a weight of 1.0, a potential second-round matchup was given a weight of 0.5, and a potential third-round matchup was given a weight of 0.25. I've also posted the UMHB quadrant from last year to visually display how these weights are applied.




EDIT: To clarify, I used the current conferences of former playoff participants, so Ithaca was always credited as a LL school, Wesley as NJAC, and so on.
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HansenRatings

Here's my first ever attempt at projecting a bracket. Let me know where I F'ed up.
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