Top 25 talk

Started by Lurker, March 23, 2005, 09:02:04 AM

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me

Quote from: Bucket on January 12, 2018, 11:56:09 PM
Quote from: Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) on January 12, 2018, 11:11:58 PM
Quote from: me on January 12, 2018, 08:58:59 PM
Williams beaten by a mediocre performance by Tufts. Hamilton about to stay undefeated with a win over higher-ranked Wesleyan.

Looks like everything is coming good for me.

Williams is in free fall and Tufts is on the rise.  Six point loss at Hamilton for two teams that are pretty even.  Sounds like pretty typical, expected results to me.

Williams is in freefall? Winners of 6 of 8 and 3 of last 4 including loss to Tufts. Just moved up in the rankings to #4 before Tufts game. I don't follow...

Good point made here. Not sure how you can be in freefall and be in top 5 in national rankings.

Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)

Quote from: me on January 13, 2018, 12:39:50 AM
Quote from: Bucket on January 12, 2018, 11:56:09 PM
Quote from: Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) on January 12, 2018, 11:11:58 PM
Quote from: me on January 12, 2018, 08:58:59 PM
Williams beaten by a mediocre performance by Tufts. Hamilton about to stay undefeated with a win over higher-ranked Wesleyan.

Looks like everything is coming good for me.

Williams is in free fall and Tufts is on the rise.  Six point loss at Hamilton for two teams that are pretty even.  Sounds like pretty typical, expected results to me.

Williams is in freefall? Winners of 6 of 8 and 3 of last 4 including loss to Tufts. Just moved up in the rankings to #4 before Tufts game. I don't follow...

Good point made here. Not sure how you can be in freefall and be in top 5 in national rankings.

Me either.
Lead Columnist for D3hoops.com
@ryanalanscott just about anywhere

Titan Q

#11402
A look at the current D3hoops.com Top 25, w/ Massey SOS added.  I added schedules for every SOS above #100.

1. Whitman (15-0), #220 - http://www.d3hoops.com/teams/Whitman/men/2017-18/index
2. Augustana (11-3), #1
3. Whitworth (12-2), #72
4. Williams (11-3), #201 - http://www.d3hoops.com/teams/Williams/men/2017-18/index
5. UW-Whitewater (12-2), #48
6. Washington U. (11-2), #32
7. UW-River Falls (11-2), #14
8. York, Pa.(14-0), #39
9. Swarthmore (13-1), #113 - http://www.d3hoops.com/teams/Swarthmore/men/2017-18/index
10. Wittenberg (14-0), #86
11. MIT (13-1), #167 - http://www.d3hoops.com/teams/MIT/men/2017-18/index
12. Lycoming (15-1), #268 - http://www.d3hoops.com/teams/Lycoming/men/2017-18/index
13. UW-Oshkosh (12-2), #45
14. Wesleyan (10-3), #189 - http://www.d3hoops.com/teams/Wesleyan/men/2017-18/index
15. St. John's (11-1), #28
16. Middlebury (10-3), #127 - http://www.d3hoops.com/teams/Middlebury/men/2017-18/index
17. Ohio Wesleyan (10-4), #46
18. Hamilton (13-0), #173 - http://www.d3hoops.com/teams/Hamilton/men/2017-18/index
19. Marietta (11-3), #13
20. Emory (11-2), #57
21. Wartburg (11-3), #4
22. Franklin & Marshall (12-2), #154 - http://www.d3hoops.com/teams/Franklin_and_Marshall/men/2017-18/index
23. John Carroll (12-2), #29
24. Eastern Connecticut (12-2), #213 - http://www.d3hoops.com/teams/Eastern_Connecticut/men/2017-18/index
25. Baldwin Wallace (11-3), #17

I voted in the D3hoops.com Top 25 for its first 10 years or so.  It's really tough.  The biggest challenge is weighing strength of schedule -- comparing the great W/L team vs the team with some losses.  Realistically, you just don't have enough time on your hands to completely dig into all of the facts for every Top 25 candidate.

I think the current rankings demonstrate the challenge of dealing with SOS.  There are some teams ranked right now - some highly - that have played very weak schedules.

By the way, I am not suggesting that a team should have to have a great SOS to be ranked, or ranked highly.  Sometimes great teams play weak schedules.  But there are teams here floating into and up the poll that are probably not deserving of being ranked until they prove more.

Titan Q

#11403

me

One thing to note: Massey right now is running further behind than usual. Results updates normally run a couple of days behind, but right now I don't see anything updated for the entire week. I don't know why that is.

But obviously a 200ish schedule is not likely to become top 50 from one or two games.

When I made my pollster poll last week, Saturday's games were not updated in it. So obviously when it catches up, Augustana, NE Wesleyan, Baldwin Wallace, Augsburg and Ohio Wesleyan will be at least a bit lower (BW and Augsburg probably not that much, as Massey had Bethel and ONU in or near top 25), and Bethel, Ohio Northern and Wheaton will be higher.

Titan Q

Quote from: me on January 13, 2018, 10:37:54 AM
One thing to note: Massey right now is running further behind than usual. Results updates normally run a couple of days behind, but right now I don't see anything updated for the entire week. I don't know why that is.

Looks to me like Massey is updated through last night?  https://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?s=cb2018&sub=11620

KnightSlappy

Quote from: Titan Q on January 13, 2018, 11:22:01 AM
Quote from: me on January 13, 2018, 10:37:54 AM
One thing to note: Massey right now is running further behind than usual. Results updates normally run a couple of days behind, but right now I don't see anything updated for the entire week. I don't know why that is.

Looks to me like Massey is updated through last night?  https://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?s=cb2018&sub=11620

Massey ratings always get a full update on Monday mornings. Sometimes results get updated between that (it seems). I'm not sure what the schedule is with his code except that Mondays by about noon are the most up-to-date.

Titan Q

#11407
The Central Region is very complicated to sort out in terms of ranking. 

The D3hoops.com Top 25 has the order as:
#2 Augustana
#5 UW-Whitewater
#6 Wash U
#7 UW-River Falls
#13 UW-Oshkosh

D Mac, who generously posts his Top 25 ballot so the rest of us can take pot shots at him, has:
#2 Augustana
#3 Wash U
#5 UW-River Falls
#9 UW-Whitewater
#10 UW-Oshkosh
#18 St. Norbert
#23 UW-Platteville

Massey has:
#4 UW-Platteville
#5 Augustana
#11 UW-Whitewater
#12 UW-River Falls
#19 UW-Oshkosh
#23 Illinois Wesleyan
#24 Wash U

KnightSlappy's efficiency rating has:
#5 UW-Platteville
#10 Augustana
#13 UW-Whitewater
#19 North Central
#25 UW-Oshkosh

KnightSlappy's simulated regional ranking has:
1. UW-River Falls
2. Augustana
3. UW-Stevens Point
4. Wash U
5. UW-Whitewater
6. UW-Platteville
7. Illinois Wesleyan
8. St. Norbert
9. UW-Oshkosh
10. Wheaton


As of this morning, I would have the Central order as follows for purposes of poll voting.  I added what I considered to be wins over "Top 25 candidates."

1. UW-River Falls (11-2, 2-1 WIAC) - at UW-Whitewater, vs UW-Platteville
2. Wash U (11-2, 2-0 UAA) - vs Tufts, at Illinois Wesleyan
3. UW-Oshkosh (12-2, 2-1 WIAC) - at St. Norbert, vs Augustana
4. Illinois Wesleyan (11-3, 4-1 CCIW) - at Wheaton, vs Augustana
5. Wheaton (11-3, 5-1 CCIW) - vs Baldwin Wallace, at Whitworth, at Augustana
6. Augustana (11-3, 2-2 CCIW) - at Wash U
7. UW-Whitewater (12-2, 2-1 WIAC) vs St. Norbert
---------
8. UW-Platteville (12-2, 2-1 WIAC) - none
9. St. Norbert (12-2, 7-0 MWC) - none

(I'd probably put the top 7 in a Top 25...maybe 8 depending on how the bottom of my ballot looked.)


D Mac, I don't get the St. Norbert (#18) thing.  Their best win is against 9-5 UW-Stevens Point.  To get votes, don't they have to at least win one of those home games vs UW-Oshkosh and UW-Whitewater?

Titan Q

#11408
My updated Central Region rankings (teams deserving of Top 25 consideration)...

(wins vs Top 25 candidates)

1. UW-Oshkosh (13-2, 3-1 WIAC) - vs Augustana, vs UW-River Falls
2. Wash U (11-2, 2-0 UAA) - vs Tufts, at Illinois Wesleyan
3. Illinois Wesleyan (12-3, 5-1 CCIW) - at North Central, at Wheaton, vs Augustana
4. UW-River Falls (11-3, 2-2 WIAC) - at UW-Whitewater, vs UW-Platteville
5. Wheaton (11-4, 5-2 CCIW) - vs Baldwin Wallace, at Whitworth, at Augustana
6. Augustana (12-3, 3-2 CCIW) - vs North Central, at Wash U
7. UW-Whitewater (13-2, 3-1 WIAC) none
8. UW-Platteville (13-2, 3-1 WIAC) - none
9. North Central (11-4, 5-2 CCIW) - vs Wheaton


Will be interesting to see if the D3hoops.com Top 25 voters officially remove all preseason expectations from their voting mindset in the Week 7 poll.  Because based on 2017-18 resumes, I don't see how current #2 Augustana can be ranked ahead of currently unranked Illinois Wesleyan.  I feel the same way about Wheaton - seems Wheaton should be ranked ahead of Augie too.

Gonna be an interesting poll.

me

#11409
Didn't Whitewater beat Oshkosh by like a million at Oshkosh?

I have them ordinally as Whitewater, Wash U, Oshkosh, IWU, Augustana, River Falls, Platteville, Wheaton, all between #6 and #17 lol. So pretty much it's the top 5, then the Central Region plus OAC, then um...some other teams. And after today I actually have North Central #25.

Not a ton of difference between them, though. I think someone in my current top 16 will win the national championship. That's about as far as I'm willing to go.

Titan Q

Quote from: me on January 13, 2018, 11:51:25 PM
Didn't Whitewater beat Oshkosh by like a million at Oshkosh?

I have them ordinally as Whitewater, Wash U, Oshkosh, IWU, Augustana, River Falls, Platteville, Wheaton, all between #6 and #17 lol. So pretty much it's the top 5, then the Central Region plus OAC, then um...some other teams. And after today I actually have North Central #25.

Not a ton of difference between them, though. I think someone in my current top 16 will win the national championship. That's about as far as I'm willing to go.

Yes.  I knew I was missing some key result in this Central Region mess...and that was it.

Will update and correct...

Titan Q

#11411
My updated Central Region rankings (teams deserving of Top 25 consideration)...

(wins vs Top 25 candidates)

1. UW-Whitewater (13-2, 3-1 WIAC) at UW-Oshkosh
2. Wash U (11-2, 2-0 UAA) - vs Tufts, at Illinois Wesleyan
3. Illinois Wesleyan (12-3, 5-1 CCIW) - at North Central, at Wheaton, vs Augustana
4. UW-Oshkosh (13-2, 3-1 WIAC) - vs Augustana, vs UW-River Falls
5. UW-River Falls (11-3, 2-2 WIAC) - at UW-Whitewater, vs UW-Platteville
6. Wheaton (11-4, 5-2 CCIW) - vs Baldwin Wallace, at Whitworth, at Augustana
7. Augustana (12-3, 3-2 CCIW) - vs North Central, at Wash U
8. UW-Platteville (13-2, 3-1 WIAC) - none
9. North Central (11-4, 5-2 CCIW) - vs Wheaton

Also worth noting that UW-Stevens Point is currently all alone atop the WIAC standings at 4-0.  I think with 5 losses, though, you wait until the upcoming 1/17 game at UW-Whitewater to sort out the Pointers.  And you pray UWW wins...otherwise your head will explode trying to sort out the WIAC order.


WIAC Standings (road wins noted)
UW-Stevens Point 4-0  at River Falls, at Stout
UW-Whitewater 3-1  at Oshkosh, at Eau Claire
UW-Oshkosh 3-1  at La Crosse
UW-Platteville 3-1  at Stout
UW-River Falls 2-2  at Whitewater
UW-La Crosse 1-3  at Eau Claire
UW-Eau Claire 0-4
UW-Stout 0-4

CCIW Standings (road wins noted)
Illinois Wesleyan 5-1  at Wheaton, at North Central, at North Park
North Central 5-2  at North Park, at Carroll, at Millikin
Wheaton 5-2  at Elmhurst, at Augustana
Augustana 4-2  at Carthage
Carthage 4-2  at Illinois Wesleyan
Elmhurst 3-3  at Millikin, at North Park
Millikin 1-5
North Park 1-5
Carroll 0-6

Titan Q

I watched a lot of the Wittenberg/Wooster game yesterday and was really impressed with Witt.  They have all of the pieces - a really good big guy (6-9), great perimeter play, and some great intangibles (just a level of toughness about them I guess).

Wittenberg is easily a Final Four-caliber team.

Fifth and Putnam

Quote from: Titan Q on January 14, 2018, 09:08:49 AM
I watched a lot of the Wittenberg/Wooster game yesterday and was really impressed with Witt.  They have all of the pieces - a really good big guy (6-9), great perimeter play, and some great intangibles (just a level of toughness about them I guess).

Wittenberg is easily a Final Four-caliber team.

I try to watch a variety of teams and get an idea of who has what...but this year I have found myself gravitating over to Witt games. I agree...most thought they were a year or two away but they are talented and disciplined and they can win big THIS year.

Greek Tragedy

Nice work, Q, but I'm not praying Whitewater wins this week and Superior isn't in the WIAC anymore.  ;D :) :D
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