FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference

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HSCTiger fan

Quote from: wildcat11 on July 25, 2014, 05:37:25 PM
Quote from: HSCTiger fan on July 25, 2014, 04:47:08 PM
Why is it out of line to think that if HSC played a complete game they couldn't beat Linfield by 28?

Now you're just getting silly.

Is there a chance that HSC could beat Linfield in a rematch.  Sure. Why not?



I could say the same thing about your post.  I knew as soon as I wrote that it was a thought that is foreign to you.  The thought that a team was not intimidated by the Wildcats  probably bothers you a little.  But the simple fact is HSC is not intimidated.  If HSC had the opportunity to go back to McMinnville this fall they'd be ready.  Linfield has to replace the best player they had last year - Forrest.  You have to replace a QB that went 18-36 and 3 Ints against HSC.  You guys ran 85 times for 154 yards in your last 2 games (130 and 24).  Everyone keeps pointing out to me that to be elite you have to run the ball.  You guys have a lot more to worry about than whether you can beat us again this fall. 
Hampden Sydney College
ODAC Champions 77, 82, 83, 87, 07, 09, 11, 13, 14
NCAA Playoffs - 77, 07, 09, 10, 11, 13, 14
The "Game" 60 wins and counting...
11/18/2018 Wally referred to me as Chief and admitted "I don't know about that!"

HSCTiger fan

Quote from: jknezek on July 25, 2014, 06:11:32 PM
Quote from: HSCTiger fan on July 25, 2014, 05:55:58 PM
True. A more modern example might be appropriate. Thank goodness you did not give a pre game speech to Appalachian State before they beat Michigan, or JMU when they beat VTech.  Upsets happen.  Your elitist argument is what's fantasy.

I don't know my fellow board user. I swear you are proving my point. I've said upsets happen. They are extremely rare. App State is the only FCS school to ever beat a top 10 ranked FBS school at the time of their ranking. THAT MEANS IT IS EXTREMELY RARE. Thanks for proving my point. A 1 in a large number chance, which is EXACTLY what I've been saying. I just don't know what to tell you. Statistics aren't that hard. Understanding an upset is EXTREMELY RARE, which is what makes it an upset, isn't that hard. I guess some things just don't click no matter how much evidence you provide.

Ok.
Hampden Sydney College
ODAC Champions 77, 82, 83, 87, 07, 09, 11, 13, 14
NCAA Playoffs - 77, 07, 09, 10, 11, 13, 14
The "Game" 60 wins and counting...
11/18/2018 Wally referred to me as Chief and admitted "I don't know about that!"

wildcat11

Quote from: HSCTiger fan on July 25, 2014, 06:28:50 PM
Linfield has to replace the best player they had last year - Forrest. 

Well, that's what the elite programs do...replace great players with more great players. 

jknezek

Well that whole conversation went in the crapper. Hate it when that happens.

HSCTiger fan

How did the conversation go to the crapper?  Basically because you keep pointing out how dumb it is to believe in ones team and coaches.
Hampden Sydney College
ODAC Champions 77, 82, 83, 87, 07, 09, 11, 13, 14
NCAA Playoffs - 77, 07, 09, 10, 11, 13, 14
The "Game" 60 wins and counting...
11/18/2018 Wally referred to me as Chief and admitted "I don't know about that!"

jknezek

Quote from: HSCTiger fan on July 26, 2014, 09:06:02 AM
How did the conversation go to the crapper?  Basically because you keep pointing out how dumb it is to believe in ones team and coaches.

Yep. That was exactly what I said and exactly the problem.

HSCTiger fan

This conversation started because I said I thought HSC was one of 20 or 30 teams that could beat anyone. You used words like "fantasy", or suggestions that "food poisoning"or "accidents" may occur, then you researched 20 years of football, used a calculator, probably a spreadsheet and mentioned the law of physics to make it clear to me that upsets are "extremely rare". Really?  Until you spent hours on research I thought they were common.   You wonder how it went to the crapper?

No team is the same team this year as last year. No elite team from last year has played HSC or any other team this year. No one knows who is going to do what until they play the games.


Hampden Sydney College
ODAC Champions 77, 82, 83, 87, 07, 09, 11, 13, 14
NCAA Playoffs - 77, 07, 09, 10, 11, 13, 14
The "Game" 60 wins and counting...
11/18/2018 Wally referred to me as Chief and admitted "I don't know about that!"

jknezek

Yes I can see how it could be a cardinal sin to use statistics and data in an online message board. I can see how that would be upsetting. My apologies. As for food poisoning and an accident I used them as possibilities for why a severe upset might occur. You know, one of those real long shots? An interesting story, but not necessary tied to an upset, about food poisoning possibly affecting a sporting event can be read here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_Rugby_World_Cup_Final

An unsettling accident that has been partially blamed for an upset occurred just recently, when the undefeated Oklahoma State football team lost to Iowa State in 2011 following a plane crash that unfortunately killed members of the Ok State athletic department. That massive upset helped lead to our all SEC National Championship game.

So as you can see, they aren't really far fetched ideas. But again, I understand that research and data has upset you. I'll try not to have a conversation with you that includes those facets again. I've never thought it a bad idea to back up my ideas with actual data before. Must be nice to think "I believe X" is the correct way to make an argument successful.

HSCTiger fan

It might have been enough to say it was extremely rare -maybe not using a bazooka to kill a fly.
Hampden Sydney College
ODAC Champions 77, 82, 83, 87, 07, 09, 11, 13, 14
NCAA Playoffs - 77, 07, 09, 10, 11, 13, 14
The "Game" 60 wins and counting...
11/18/2018 Wally referred to me as Chief and admitted "I don't know about that!"

bleedpurple

Quote from: jknezek on July 25, 2014, 03:15:04 PM

I was curious about this so I took a bit of a deeper look. For the last six seasons I defined the top six teams as these: UWW, UMHB, UMU, Linfield, Wesley and NCC. I refer to these teams as "elite" through the rest of this post. You could probably sub someone else in for NCC or even Linfield. A MIAC team makes sense, but it's somewhat hard to do. The MIAC champion is elite every year, but over this time that has rotated a bit. St. Thomas is probably closest with big seasons in 2010-2012, but not really before that.

Anyway, the six teams I chose had 43 losses over roughly 468 games (I didn't count the games, just assumed 13 per year per team. Since some teams played 15 games and others played as few as 10 in a season, it probably averages out close to correct +/- 10 games). Of those 43 losses, 23 came to one of the other five teams. So when these teams lose, a rare occurrence, they lose to each other more than half the time. 20 losses came to others outside those 6, but that includes Linfield losing to NC runner up St. Thomas in 2012.

Team by team it looks like this: UWW had 3 losses in 2012 to non elite teams. Other than that they have had one non-elite loss in six years. UMHB has taken a single loss to D3 competition in each of the 6 seasons, only once to a non-elite team. UMU never lost over the period to someone who wasn't UWW. Linfield had 5 non-elite losses (including St. Thomas) and 3 elite losses. Wesley is the real tough one. They have 10 losses to D3 over this period, 7 to the elite teams. NCC is the least by this measure, 10 losses but only 3 to elite teams.

So these six teams lose at varying rates to non-elite teams, with UMU, UMHB, and Wesley losing the least to non-elite teams, a total of 4 times in six seasons, and Linfield and NCC losing the most, a total of 12 times over six seasons. UWW falls in the middle, thanks mainly to a crappy 2012 season.

What does this mean? It not only seems like the top 6 lose primarily to each other, they actually DO lose primarily to each other.

I will say if you go back slightly farther the numbers change a bit. Primarily because Linfield and NCC are less dominant in 2005-2008. In those years UWW never lost to a non-elite, UMHB lost 5 times to elite teams and twice to non-elite, UMU lost once to an elite and once to a non-elite (their only conference lost in a long time), Linfield lost 5 times, 4 times to non-elite teams, Wesley lost 5 times, 3 times to non-elite, and NCC lost seven times, only once to an elite. Over this period you would probably sub Linfield and NCC for other teams, since they lost 10 of 12 to non-elite teams.

The fact remains, however, that elite teams are elite for a reason and non-elite teams don't stand much of a chance of beating them. There is always a 1, but the number on the other side is pretty big. In the information for the period above you have a 1 in 23 chance of beating these teams as a group. Individually you have a 1 in 10 chance of beating NCC (7 out of 73 games) and a 0% chance of beating UMU (0 out of 90 games). What do you know? There isn't a 1 for UMU in this sample!

Data and stats, not always the answer but a pretty good indicator...

This has been a good debate and enjoyable to read.  Very nice job of research and providing data JK.  One factor not noted (to my knowledge) could actually help BOTH sides of the argument.  There always exits the possibility that a team that is usually "elite" is not "elite" in any given year.  That certainly was the case for UW-W in 2012. Often "elite status" is rendered after the season, not during or before.  That being the case, it adds to JK's argument in that TRULY elite teams lose to others even less often than his statistics reveal.  However, it also bolsters the heart of the HSCTigerfan argument.  "Who says LINFIELD is elite this year? Show us, because you can't bring your history between the lines when we play."  Obviously, at this point, last year is over.  What happened happened.  After reading this board, I really wish there were a likely re-match this year, but there isn't.

I concede that the UW-W 2012 season is a huge statistical anomaly among the elite teams. But with Mount Union showing very real chinks in their armor last year as well, I am guessing the gap is narrowing and that these elite teams may have a few more toe-stubs than they have the past 10 years or so. 

jknezek

Quote from: bleedpurple on July 26, 2014, 09:19:38 PM
There always exits the possibility that a team that is usually "elite" is not "elite" in any given year.  That certainly was the case for UW-W in 2012. Often "elite status" is rendered after the season, not during or before. 

I concede that the UW-W 2012 season is a huge statistical anomaly among the elite teams. But with Mount Union showing very real chinks in their armor last year as well, I am guessing the gap is narrowing and that these elite teams may have a few more toe-stubs than they have the past 10 years or so.

I obviously cut out a piece of your posts because what's above is what I want to address, not to change the tenor of what you wrote.

You are correct that sometimes elite teams don't have elite seasons. I didn't want to pick and choose because it then becomes a self-completing statistic. In other words if I picked the 6 teams every season that essentially lost only in the last stage of the playoffs, of course those teams didn't lose to anyone but that grouping. It twists the stats. Elite teams aren't earning that status in one season in my mind. That's also why my data started to fall apart in 2005-2008, because Linfield and NCC just wouldn't qualify. It's also why I didn't include a MIAC team. You can always say the best teams in one year were the best teams. That's self-evident, but an elite team does it year after year, even if there is an occasional anomaly. Of those six teams, I think NCC and UWW both in 2012 were the only anomalies. That's not bad for essentially 36 seasons (6 teams, 6 seasons).

As for Mount showing chinks I'm not convinced yet. They were national champs in 2012, and runner ups the other years. The only big chink has been UWW has been a better team, except for 2012. No other team in all of D3 has beaten them since 2005. I believe last year's team wasn't as good as 2012, the defense looked off to me. But it was VK's first year. And I don't think the 2013 team was much different from 2011. 2013 labored with Franklin, Heidelberg and JCU, three playoff caliber teams though Heidelberg was blocked by Mount and JCU. 2011 labored with ONU who went 6-4 and B-W, who was probably playoff caliber but was blocked by UMU and a bad loss to Capital that kept them from a "C".

We'll see if Mount's chinks stay, but at this point in time I'm not sure it was anything but a "down" year which still resulted in a runner up. The same ending as some of Mount's better teams in the recent UWW era...

Pat Coleman

Quote from: HSCTiger fan on July 26, 2014, 05:23:42 PM
It might have been enough to say it was extremely rare -maybe not using a bazooka to kill a fly.

It was a pretty ridiculous assertion to suggest 20-30 teams could beat anyone in Division III. Shows that you haven't watched much December football ...
Publisher. Questions? Check our FAQ for D3f, D3h.
Quote from: old 40 on September 25, 2007, 08:23:57 PMLet's discuss (sports) in a positive way, sometimes kidding each other with no disrespect.

HSCTiger fan

Quote from: Pat Coleman on July 28, 2014, 12:30:46 AM
Quote from: HSCTiger fan on July 26, 2014, 05:23:42 PM
It might have been enough to say it was extremely rare -maybe not using a bazooka to kill a fly.

It was a pretty ridiculous assertion to suggest 20-30 teams could beat anyone in Division III. Shows that you haven't watched much December football ...

"A man can be as great as he wants to be. If you believe in yourself and have the courage, the determination, the dedication, the competitive drive and if you are willing to sacrifice the little things in life and pay the price for the things that are worthwhile, it can be done."
-- Vince Lombardi


Hampden Sydney College
ODAC Champions 77, 82, 83, 87, 07, 09, 11, 13, 14
NCAA Playoffs - 77, 07, 09, 10, 11, 13, 14
The "Game" 60 wins and counting...
11/18/2018 Wally referred to me as Chief and admitted "I don't know about that!"

Pat Coleman

Quote from: HSCTiger fan on July 28, 2014, 07:51:46 AM
Quote from: Pat Coleman on July 28, 2014, 12:30:46 AM
Quote from: HSCTiger fan on July 26, 2014, 05:23:42 PM
It might have been enough to say it was extremely rare -maybe not using a bazooka to kill a fly.

It was a pretty ridiculous assertion to suggest 20-30 teams could beat anyone in Division III. Shows that you haven't watched much December football ...

"A man can be as great as he wants to be. If you believe in yourself and have the courage, the determination, the dedication, the competitive drive and if you are willing to sacrifice the little things in life and pay the price for the things that are worthwhile, it can be done."
-- Vince Lombardi

Football is not a one-man sport.
Publisher. Questions? Check our FAQ for D3f, D3h.
Quote from: old 40 on September 25, 2007, 08:23:57 PMLet's discuss (sports) in a positive way, sometimes kidding each other with no disrespect.

HSCTiger fan

I would have never thought thinking the mighty are not invincible would create such reactions.  I'd rather be thought ridiculous than to think any other way.
Hampden Sydney College
ODAC Champions 77, 82, 83, 87, 07, 09, 11, 13, 14
NCAA Playoffs - 77, 07, 09, 10, 11, 13, 14
The "Game" 60 wins and counting...
11/18/2018 Wally referred to me as Chief and admitted "I don't know about that!"