MBB: USA South Conference

Started by CNU85, March 16, 2005, 12:28:10 PM

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captj

narch -

I know that you're determined to reduce something intangible into something quantitative, but I still say it doesn't work.  There are so many variables that it just can't be done.  For example, you're not allowing for the possibility that a team may not be very good at playing away games.  Sound familiar?  For at least a couple of years in a row now CNU fans (and others) have bemoaned the fact that we're not "road tough" enough because of all of the home games we play in our non-conference schedule.  With EHCAI, wouldn't CNU actually have a higher score if that were true?  I just think that there are too many variables, and you're right... we've "proven" that GC isn't the toughest place to play.  Let's talk about the matchups this weekend.

Saturday
Shenandoah at Averett – Averett easily
CNU at Ferrum – CNU starters blow out Ferrum and rest for Sunday
NCWesleyan at Greensboro – GC not such a tough place to play, Bishops no longer underachieving (they made me eat those words)

Sunday
Shenandoah at Ferrum – I really, really want to pick Ferrum (but can't)
CNU at Averett – I really, really want to pick my Captains (and do; I'm not jumping overboard yet)

Monday
NCWesleyan at Methodist – This one is tough.  I want to think that the Bishops caught my guys on an off night and that we're better than they are.  But if they are as good as they seemed, the Monarchs could be in trouble if they haven't gotten their house in order yet.  Playing at Maryville on Saturday is not going to help if the Monarchs go down hard and come back with even more questions.  I'm going with the hunch that CNU had a bad night and that the Bishops played their absolute best to beat us, and that they can't do the same to the Monarchs.

leroy

Quote
EHCAI = overall win % + h/r win % differential/2

I thought Pi*2 x radius = EHCAI?

narch

#962
Quote from: captj on January 19, 2006, 10:42:15 PMFor example, you're not allowing for the possibility that a team may not be very good at playing away games.

isn't this just a different way of saying a team plays better, or "tougher" at home?? thus has a home-court advantage??

Quote from: captj on January 19, 2006, 10:42:15 PMFor at least a couple of years in a row now CNU fans (and others) have bemoaned the fact that we're not "road tough" enough because of all of the home games we play in our non-conference schedule.  With EHCAI, wouldn't CNU actually have a higher score if that were true?

it would be higher if the moaning that cnu fans have done was merited...you're confusing fan perception with reality...the numbers show that in conference games, cnu is only 18% worse on the road than they are at home (a 6 game swing over a 5 year span and cnu has just one less road win than the monarchs over that span ranking second in road conference wins)...the monarchs are the only team that has a lower winning % differential - the PERCEPTION that cnu loses much more on the road than they do at home is simply not reality

i like your analysis of this weekend's action, but i think the monarchs are playing better and i think things are starting to come together - there has been some addition by subtraction with the loss of hairston and 2 others - i think some chemistry is starting to form and i think there is a more established rotation - i'm still worried about a team that has lost double digit leads in the 2nd half of all 3 conference games, but i think the coaching staff can fix that - m'ville is a tough match up for the monarchs, but they aren't unbeatable - the game earlier in the season was close and the monarchs were playing worse than they are now (although it was a home tilt and this is a long trip) - i don't think the outcome of the game on saturday will have ANYTHING to do with the game monday...the monarchs WILL be ready for ncwc, and i, too, think they will win

here are my other picks
saturday - averett, cnu, ncwc
sunday - su, au in a nail biter

captj

Quote from: narch on January 20, 2006, 08:16:19 AM
it would be higher if the moaning that cnu fans have done was merited...you're confusing fan perception with reality...the numbers show that in conference games, cnu is only 18% worse on the road than they are at home (a 6 game swing over a 5 year span and cnu has just one less road win than the monarchs over that span ranking second in road conference wins)...the monarchs are the only team that has a lower winning % differential - the PERCEPTION that cnu loses much more on the road than they do at home is simply not reality

Whoa!  That's way too complex for me to digest this early in the morning.  You're the man, narch.  A plus one from me coming your way, and maybe another one later (after my brain is firing on all seven cylinders) if you convince me that CNU's a good away team.

cnu85

If you can't dazzle them with brilliance, then baffle them with Bull----!

I think Narch passed  on the dazzling part!!  :o

Captj, I tried to read that comment - it's after 11 and still early to try to figure that out!!

captj

"The New World" opens today in theaters everywhere.  If you've ever wondered who Christopher Newport was, go see it.  Or go see it because you like good movies.  CaptJ calls it a "must see".

cnu85

Captj,

how do you know it's a good movie if it opens today? Did you see it already? If so, you need a real job!  ;D

captj

Quote from: cnu85 on January 20, 2006, 11:32:49 AM
Captj,

how do you know it's a good movie if it opens today? Did you see it already? If so, you need a real job!  ;D

Come on... you get the Daily Press; good reviews.  Aren't the critics always right?  But the most important reason it's good is because it has THE Captain Chris in it, and I'm not talking about that guy with the giant fiberglass head working the crowd at CNU athletic events.  That makes it a MUST SEE.  You know you'll be there.

captj

Quote from: narch on January 20, 2006, 08:16:19 AM
it would be higher if the moaning that cnu fans have done was merited...you're confusing fan perception with reality...the numbers show that in conference games, cnu is only 18% worse on the road than they are at home (a 6 game swing over a 5 year span and cnu has just one less road win than the monarchs over that span ranking second in road conference wins)...the monarchs are the only team that has a lower winning % differential - the PERCEPTION that cnu loses much more on the road than they do at home is simply not reality

I'll try to break this down a piece at a time. 

"in conference games" - We're talking about conference games only.  So far, so good.

"cnu has just one less road win than the monarchs over that span ranking second in road conference wins" – Ok, this is easy enough.  Only MC has more road wins than the Captains (and the difference is just 1 win over 5 years; MC 23-10, CNU 22-11).  Continuing this thought;
CNU: 22-11 (away) + 28-5 (home) = 50-16 (overall)
MC: 23-10 (away) = 27-6 (home) = 50-16 (overall)
So, if the 2 teams have the same overall record AND MC has more away victories (but not by much), you would have to say that MC is at least a little bit better than CNU playing away.  Or that CNU is at least a little bit better playing at home.  Right?

Now, I don't know what "cnu is only 18% worse on the road than they are at home" means, or what "the moaning that cnu fans have done" means, but I can at least figure out that the Monarchs are a better away team than the Captains (but not by much), and you therefore have NOT convinced me that we're a good away team. 

So... no additional karma points from me, but I did give you one already for the effort.

cnufan

A Ferrum we will go, a Ferrum we will go. Hi ho the darey oh a Ferrum we will go!!

narch

#970
Quote from: captj on January 20, 2006, 08:31:24 AM
if you convince me that CNU's a good away team.

i couldn't care less about the karma, but i'll give convincing you a try - keep in mind that it's all relative...EVERY team in the conference is better at home than on the road, but a team that wins 2/3 of their road games over the last 5 full seasons (not including this year) is statistically the 2nd best road team in the conference...and one of just 2 teams that win more than 50% of the time on the road - furthermore, there is only a 6 game difference in home and road wins over a 5 year period...that means cnu loses an average of 1.2 more road games than home games per year...to me, that is an acceptable differential for a team that is perceived to have such a strong home court advantage - you've lauded the cnu crowd and the intimidating nature of playing in the freeman center...cnu fans should EXPECT to win at least one more home game per year than they do on the road

Quote from: narch on January 18, 2006, 02:56:34 PMhere are the records for the last 5 years


teamhome recwin %away recwin %win % diff
su22-11.6710-23.30+.37
au13-20.395-28.15+.24
gc20-13.6113-20.39+.22
ncw22-11.6716-17.48+.19
cnu28-5.8522-11.67+.18
fc12-21.366-27.18+.18
mc27-6.8223-10.70+.12

now, if you were a su fan, you'd have a legit concern about your team's ability to win on the road :)

captj

I have to think that IF Averett sweeps the weekend series at home against Shenandoah and CNU they could get a vote or two for Top-25.  They have some bad losses, so it might not happen, but I'd sure like to see a USASAC team on that page again.

narch

Quote from: captj on January 20, 2006, 12:07:05 PMNow, I don't know what "cnu is only 18% worse on the road than they are at home" means,

85% (home winning %) - 67% (road winning percentage) = 18%

Quote from: captj on January 20, 2006, 12:07:05 PM
or what "the moaning that cnu fans have done" means

see your quote below

Quote from: captj on January 19, 2006, 10:42:15 PMFor at least a couple of years in a row now CNU fans (and others) have bemoaned the fact that we're not "road tough" enough because of all of the home games we play in our non-conference schedule.

this MAY apply come conference tournament time, but i clearly don't think it applies to regular season play

narch

Quote from: captj on January 20, 2006, 11:29:48 AM
"The New World" opens today in theaters everywhere.  If you've ever wondered who Christopher Newport was, go see it.  Or go see it because you like good movies.  CaptJ calls it a "must see".

i couldn't care less about christopher newport, but i've seen a couple of trailers for the movie, and i'll definately get it when it comes out on dvd (i'm not big on going to the movies, but i'll bet that flick will be nice on the 36" tv with 7 speaker surround :))

scottiedoug

Hello Narch:   Until Wednesday, I was afraid that Methodist would find Maryville basking in its press clippings but I am pretty sure they will be focused and paying attention Saturday.