Pool C -- 2012

Started by wally_wabash, August 31, 2012, 11:19:36 AM

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wally_wabash

Quote from: smedindy on October 08, 2012, 03:43:35 PM
CMU could still get a "B" based on how the Wesley / BSC / Huntingdon troika settles out. Their SOS could improve if the UAA takes care of the NCAC in their remaining games, OWU keeps winning and Gheny snaps out of it.

Those teams are going to have to lose somewhere we don't see coming (possible but not likely...interesting games left there are Adrian @ Huntingdon, Trinity @ B-SC, BS-C @ Millsaps).  I don't think CMU is going to get a big SOS boost the rest of the way (they went from .701 to .579 this week).  And if Wesley loses to Huntingdon and creates an A beat B beat C beat A situation, I still think CMU with their one loss sits behind at least two of those three (1-loss Huntingdon and B-SC) based on results vs. ranked teams and maybe all three depending on how much Wesley gets punished for a second loss.  CMU's more likely avenue to the postseason, I believe, is through Pool C.  At 9-1 with a respectable SOS, they should be near the top of the South region's at-larges on selection Sunday. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

MonroviaCat

Quote from: d-train on October 08, 2012, 12:09:48 PM
Don't worry too much about Whitworth until you have results from this Sat. (at Linfield).  They most likely will pick up conference loss number two and be done in terms of the playoffs.  You only need to consider them in predictions if they pull the upset.
Yeah, and I would not be shocked in the least to see no NWC team finish with less than 2 losses (save for Linfield going undefeated).  I think PLU could knock Willamette off the board as well....
Go Cats!

ExTartanPlayer

#17
Wally and smedindy,

Good discussion re: where CMU fits into the B/C picture.  I think the most likely scenario is Wesley winning out and taking the B.  It will be interesting to see where they stack up in the "C" picture, but I generally believe that a Pool B team kinda has to go undefeated to be absolutely certain of getting in via that route.  They will be 9-1 with a decent SOS, and as wally points out, the list of 9-1 teams in Pool C from the South Region is likely to be rather thin; it will be interesting to see if it comes to B-SC and CMU (and it's even possible, IMO, that these COULD end up as the first two at-large selections on the board from the South; I might be missing someone, but I don't see many possibilities for 9-1 runners-up around the region).

The ODAC, PAC, USAC, and ASC runners-up are all likely to end with two losses, although Louisiana College will be a VERY strong 8-2 team.  If the loser of Gettysburg vs. Johns Hopkins runs the table, the Centennial runnerup will be 9-1.  Past that, I don't know who else ends up on the board before either B-SC or CMU, and I think they'll both be in the mix with either of the aforementioned possibilities.  Obviously all four won't get in (no way we'll have four C's from the South) but it will be VERY interesting to see what order they come up in.  I'd give the first two up a pretty good chance to get in.
I was small but made up for it by being slow...

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jknezek

Ex -- I'm in line with you. I think 9-1 Centennial runner up will be strong competition for 9-1 CMU to get on the board. If it was me, and I was going off what the committee did last year with SJF, I'd put an 8-2 La Col, with a close loss to Wesley and a (maybe?) close loss to UMHB before either of the 9-1 teams. A lot hinges on how La Col loses to UMHB and how Wesley and UMHB finish the season. If they both run the table they are probably top 5 seeds. If you have two close losses to top 5 seeds you can probably play with anyone and have proved it, something I'm not sure many other Pool C candidates can prove from their schedule.

wally_wabash

Quote from: ExTartanPlayer on October 11, 2012, 11:20:45 AM
Wally and smedindy,

Good discussion re: where CMU fits into the B/C picture.  I think the most likely scenario is Wesley winning out and taking the B.  It will be interesting to see where they stack up in the "C" picture, but I generally believe that a Pool B team kinda has to go undefeated to be absolutely certain of getting in via that route.  They will be 9-1 with a decent SOS, and as wally points out, the list of 9-1 teams in Pool C from the South Region is likely to be rather thin; it will be interesting to see if it comes to B-SC and CMU (and it's even possible, IMO, that these COULD end up as the first two at-large selections on the board from the South; I might be missing someone, but I don't see many possibilities for 9-1 runners-up around the region).

The ODAC, PAC, USAC, and ASC runners-up are all likely to end with two losses, although Louisiana College will be a VERY strong 8-2 team.  If the loser of Gettysburg vs. Johns Hopkins runs the table, the Centennial runnerup will be 9-1.  Past that, I don't know who else ends up on the board before either B-SC or CMU, and I think they'll both be in the mix with either of the aforementioned possibilities.  Obviously all four won't get in (no way we'll have four C's from the South) but it will be VERY interesting to see what order they come up in.  I'd give the first two up a pretty good chance to get in.

In the two weeks that I've done this projection, Pool B overlfow has indeed been the top two choices from the South Region (B-SC and CMU last week, B-SC and Huntingdon this week).  Huntingdon or Wesley is going to take a second loss and will probably drift below 1-loss CMU per the criteria (Huntingdon for sure, Wesley probably).  As long as B-SC keeps winning, I think they'll stay on top of the at-large tableau in the South.  CMU's chances will depend on exactly what happens with their SOS number and if anybody that they beat happens to get into a regional ranking (maybe OWU, maybe Allegheny if they can beat Wittenberg). 

I think that the past has not favored excess Pool B teams in the Pool C conversation more because there hasn't been depth of quality in Pool B moreso than I think the committee has a particular bias against Pool B overflow. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

smedindy

Is it early for an elimination game? The Carnegie Mellon / Ohio Wesleyan game seems like it. Assuming OWU loses to Wabash (big assumption, I know, because of Allegheny and stuff) they can't lose to CMU and be considered for a "C" in any way shape or form. If OWU beats CMU then the Tartans have two losses and that'll knock 'em out of "B" consideration and on verrry shaky ground in "C" land.

ExTartanPlayer

Quote from: smedindy on October 14, 2012, 09:10:13 PM
Is it early for an elimination game? The Carnegie Mellon / Ohio Wesleyan game seems like it. Assuming OWU loses to Wabash (big assumption, I know, because of Allegheny and stuff) they can't lose to CMU and be considered for a "C" in any way shape or form. If OWU beats CMU then the Tartans have two losses and that'll knock 'em out of "B" consideration and on verrry shaky ground in "C" land.

I agree.  CMU vs. OWU is an elimination game for Pool B/C, respectively.  Obviously the winner will still have some work to do in order to go 9-1 and keep themselves in this discussion.  Given that neither program was a realistic playoff contender at the start of the season, it's pretty cool to see both teams even considering that possibility.
I was small but made up for it by being slow...

http://athletics.cmu.edu/sports/fball/2011-12/releases/20120629a4jaxa

K-Mack

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 04, 2012, 04:39:57 PM
Most teams are almost halfway through the schedule.  Why not gaze into the crystal ball and see what Pool C starts to look like?  I need a hobby.

Yeah you do. Although I believe this qualifies. That's what I tell the guys down at the Lionel train shop.

I just popped into this thread for the first time this season, but I'm really enjoying the work you guys are putting in.

Quote from: jknezek on October 11, 2012, 11:25:21 AMIf you have two close losses to top 5 seeds you can probably play with anyone and have proved it, something I'm not sure many other Pool C candidates can prove from their schedule.

I couldn't agree more, but the committee might have to fudge the criteria to make it happen. In-region results are on the table of course, and LC might have a very nice SoS, but I wonder if they'll be passing over some nice one-loss teams who have actually beaten somebody pretty good. LC/Hardin-Simmons winner will be the other's best win, most likely, unless the Cowboys shock UMHB on Saturday.

Tangent I guess ... I'm working on a chart, mostly for the 6-0/7-0 but haven't beaten anybody good crowd, to show how many teams are undefeated, have only lost to ranked teams (and some have two losses).

The danger in taking that Wesley game for LC was not winning it, and not winning the ASC. They'll have the SoS, but being in the two-loss group is always a crapshoot. Would have been nice to see UW-Oshkosh be 8-2 last year with Ls to UMU and UWW and see if they'd have gotten in or not. I think there are some two-loss teams that are better than one-loss teams, and teams that schedule aggressively shouldn't necessarily be punished.

Wesley, on the other hand, was kind of brilliant in creating this national barnstorming schedule but playing all the key teams in the South Region (it seems) plus Salisbury. Their D-III SoS will be through the roof.
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wally_wabash

New projection, including results through 10/13:

Pool A's, changes from last week in bold:

   League   
    Team
   ASC   
   UMHB   
   CC   
   Johns Hopkins   
   CCIW   
   IWU   
   ECFC   
   Mount Ida   
   E8   
   Salisbury   
   HCAC   
   Franklin   
   IIAC   
   Coe   
   LL   
   Hobart   
   MIAA   
   Adrian   
   MAC   
   Widener   
   MWC   
   Lake Forest   
   MIAC   
   St. Thomas   
   NEFC   
   Salve Regina   
   NJAC   
   Rowan   
   NCAC   
   Ohio Wesleyan   
   NAC   
   Concordia-Chicago   
   NWC   
   Linfield   
   OAC   
   Mount Union   
   ODAC   
   Washington & Lee   
   PAC   
   Waynesburg   
   SCIAC   
   Cal Lutheran   
   UMAC   
   Northwestern   
   USAC   
   Christopher Newport   
   WIAC   
   UW Whitewater   

W&L seized control of the ODAC with their win over Randolph Macon last weekend.  Gallaudet's loss to Norwich sort of throws the ECFC into flux.  I've now projected Mount Ida there, but really you can use any ECFC placeholder as that is now going to be a one-bid league. 

Pool B: This bid comes down to Wesley/Huntingdon on 10/27 (btw, Huntingdon has two bye weeks heading into that game...that's a long layoff before stepping on the field with Wesley...at least they don't have to travel).  Birmingham Southern's loss to Trinity has pretty much knocked them out of this.  Carnegie Mellon and Millsaps are still lurking if Wesley loses and Huntingdon loses a non-Wesley game, but then Trinity's 2-loss resume actually starts to look good with lots of good wins.  I'm straying too far from the bid here.  Wesley is the pick until further notice. 

Pool C: Just to give you an idea of how fluid this projection is, three of my seven Pool C teams from last week lost their way out: SJF, Otterbein, Birmingham-Southern.  And none of those teams are even close at this point.  That's how valuable every game is.  Here are the picks for this week, in order of selection:

Willamette
UW-Oshkosh
Bethel
Heidelberg
Wabash
Huntingdon
RPI

The West gets really interesting in the next couple of weeks.  Oshkosh and Whitewater this weekend, Willamette and Linfield next weekend.  Only Whitewater doesn't have a game to play with; selection gets VERY interesting if Oshkosh beats  Whitewater and we have to consider a 2-loss team with an average SOS, just one quality win, and the last three natiional championships (which is not a criteria, but can people resist the urge to consider it). 

Selection was a little strange this week because Heidelberg's painful SOS forced me to consider 1-loss teams in front of them, despite their quality win over Otterbein.  Ultimately, Bethel made the cut in front of Heidelberg, Simpson/RPI/Huntingdon did not.  Alfred has played RPI's way onto the list and RPI was the last selection for me this week.  Last three on the table (in no particular order) were Simpson, Franklin & Marshall, and North Central.  This was a HARD choice and I think you could reasonably take North Central or F&M instead of RPI if you wanted to.  All three teams have a quality win and fairly similar SOS's at the moment.  Interestingly, I don't think any of these teams will be Pool C candidates after 11/10.  All three of these teams (NCC/RPI/F&M) are either going to win their league's AQ or wind up with too many losses to be legitimately involved in the Pool C process. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

smedindy

#24
As it stands now, you have CMU (and Millsaps) behind Huntingdon. What happens if Huntingdon loses to Wesley? Which one would leapfrog in the South f they stayed as they are now?

jknezek

#25
Quote from: smedindy on October 16, 2012, 11:25:39 AM
As it stands now, you have CMU (and Millsaps) behind Huntingdon. What happens if Huntingdon loses to Wesley? Which one would leapfrog if they stayed as they are now?

I think you'd have to say CMU because they HAVEN'T lost to Huntingdon. A 1 loss Millsaps has a hard time getting to the table ahead of a 2 loss Huntingdon, simply because that loss is TO Huntingdon. If the loss was to someone else, then Millsaps would be in better shape. Of course, a 1 loss Millsaps means that Millsaps beats B-SC, who beat Huntingdon, and Trinity, who beat B-SC. So you COULD rationalize it that way. Plus, in that situation, you have to figure Millsaps is 1-1 against RRO (Huntingdon and either Trinity or B-SC), while I'm not sure CMU will have played an RRO for the South.

You can make a case either way, but I don't think you'll have to worry about it. I don't see Millsaps beating a revived Trinity team in San Antonio. Whether B-SC can get back on the ball, I don't know. My confidence in them took a beating when I attended the game this past weekend.

wally_wabash

Quote from: K-Mack on October 15, 2012, 10:28:10 PM
Quote from: jknezek on October 11, 2012, 11:25:21 AMIf you have two close losses to top 5 seeds you can probably play with anyone and have proved it, something I'm not sure many other Pool C candidates can prove from their schedule.

I couldn't agree more, but the committee might have to fudge the criteria to make it happen. In-region results are on the table of course, and LC might have a very nice SoS, but I wonder if they'll be passing over some nice one-loss teams who have actually beaten somebody pretty good. LC/Hardin-Simmons winner will be the other's best win, most likely, unless the Cowboys shock UMHB on Saturday.

Tangent I guess ... I'm working on a chart, mostly for the 6-0/7-0 but haven't beaten anybody good crowd, to show how many teams are undefeated, have only lost to ranked teams (and some have two losses).

The danger in taking that Wesley game for LC was not winning it, and not winning the ASC. They'll have the SoS, but being in the two-loss group is always a crapshoot. Would have been nice to see UW-Oshkosh be 8-2 last year with Ls to UMU and UWW and see if they'd have gotten in or not. I think there are some two-loss teams that are better than one-loss teams, and teams that schedule aggressively shouldn't necessarily be punished.

Wesley, on the other hand, was kind of brilliant in creating this national barnstorming schedule but playing all the key teams in the South Region (it seems) plus Salisbury. Their D-III SoS will be through the roof.

Louisiana College is setting up to be a hard luck team this year.  Their problem is going to be two losses, plus zero wins against ranked teams.  As we know, the criteria says "results" against regionally ranked teams, so you don't necessarily have to win, but there are going to be teams that have wins against RR'd teams and will almost certainly have to be considered before LC.  If HSU can beat UMHB, then there is a chance that HSU could be regionally ranked sometime prior to the week 11 LC/HSU game (the Cowboys would have to also try to outscore SRSU next week to get there).  A third loss anywhere probably keeps HSU from getting regionally ranked. 

One other thing working against LC is the criteria specification of regional win percentage.  With two non-division games, every loss counts more against LC than it does for teams with 9 or 10 divisional games.  This is why a second loss to Wesley may very well keep them out of the playoffs all together.  They would be 4-2 in D3 games for a .667 win%...less than that of a team that has a full D3 schedule and goes 7-3 which would never be considered for at-large selection. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

jknezek

LC also has a problem because they lost badly last weekend. A lot of my supposition of them getting a 2 loss bid was built around losing close games to top 5 teams. Losing 30-3 takes a lot of steam out of that argument. While I think UMHB might be the best team in the country, or at least in the top 3, that wasn't what anyone would consider a "competitive" loss. There is no shame in that loss to a team that good, but it isn't the resume builder they needed.

wally_wabash

Quote from: jknezek on October 16, 2012, 11:30:36 AM
Quote from: smedindy on October 16, 2012, 11:25:39 AM
As it stands now, you have CMU (and Millsaps) behind Huntingdon. What happens if Huntingdon loses to Wesley? Which one would leapfrog if they stayed as they are now?

I think you'd have to say CMU because they HAVEN'T lost to Huntingdon. A 1 loss Millsaps has a hard time getting to the table ahead of a 2 loss Huntingdon, simply because that loss is TO Huntingdon. If the loss was to someone else, then Millsaps would be in better shape. Of course, a 1 loss Millsaps means that Millsaps beats B-SC, who beat Huntingdon, and Trinity, who beat B-SC. So you COULD rationalize it that way. Plus, in that situation, you have to figure Millsaps is 1-1 against RRO (Huntingdon and either Trinity or B-SC), while I'm not sure CMU will have played an RRO for the South.

You can make a case either way, but I don't think you'll have to worry about it. I don't see Millsaps beating a revived Trinity team in San Antonio. Whether B-SC can get back on the ball, I don't know. My confidence in them took a beating when I attended the game this past weekend.

This is good analysis.  I think it's going to depend on if Trinity and/or B-SC get into the regional rankings before they hypothetically lose to Millsaps.  If one or both of those teams gets ranked, I think it's easy to have 1-loss Millsaps get ahead of 2-loss Huntingdon.  Wins against RROs will be the major factor there. 

Can Carnegie Mellon get in front of either of them?  Maybe.  If Trinity and/or B-SC don't get regionally ranked, and OWU does, then they might.  The problem is going to be that if CMU beats OWU and OWU falls to Wabash the following week, they'll be hard pressed to get ranked in the North region. 

All of that said, if Huntingdon picks up a second loss, and F&M pick up a second loss, and Millsaps picks up a second loss, then 1-loss CMU may very well be sitting at the top of the South region tableau on 11/11.  The Tartans probably have the most favorable schedule remaining to get to the finish line at 9-1 of the South region at-large contenders. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

d-train

Keep an eye this week on Willamette @ PLU.  The Lutes are a two-loss team (to Linfield and CLU) but could knock off the Bearcats this weekend.  If Willamette survives, I think the NWC will get two bids.