NESCAC 2014

Started by Becks, February 27, 2014, 08:56:22 PM

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Ocean 1

I can't seem to find a broadcast schedule...anyone else?

Ocean 1


Becks

Quote from: Ocean 1 on October 22, 2014, 08:52:23 AMWeather could be a factor indeed...chance of rain 70%, wind at 20-30 mph and 54 degrees. Probability in my view is a win by Amherst. Conn has a kick and run style of play while Amherst plays possession soccer and has a stronger defense. Conn could get lucky with the home field advantage though. A Conn win/tie has major potential implications for NESCAC Championship home field advantage.
Conn is the real deal this year. Conn's best season ever in NESCAC. Hard to believe they were 1-6-3 in league last year.

Ocean 1

What a difference a year makes!

Kudos to the Camels!!

jc2

Entering the last weekend of NESCAC play, Amherst, Williams, Conn and Bowdoin have clinched home field for the first round. Wesleyan is out. There are still 6 teams vying for the 4 remaining playoff spots. What are the key matchups this weekend in terms of qualifying for the playoffs? Is it Tufts v Hamilton?

Ocean 1

Quote from: jc2 on October 23, 2014, 08:42:13 AM
Entering the last weekend of NESCAC play, Amherst, Williams, Conn and Bowdoin have clinched home field for the first round. Wesleyan is out. There are still 6 teams vying for the 4 remaining playoff spots. What are the key matchups this weekend in terms of qualifying for the playoffs? Is it Tufts v Hamilton?

There's actually Tufts v. Hamilton (if Ham wins, their 12 pts. will get them into the final 8) and Conn v. Trinity (if Trinity wins, their 13 pts. will get them into the final 8). For that matter, if Bates prevails over Williams (Bates home game) their 12 points could also get them into the final 8. Still alot of soccer left to play this weekend.

From a home field advantage point-of-view, Williams certainly has increased incentive to win their next 2 games as they will then host NESCAC semi's and finals given Conn's win over Amherst yesterday.

All NESCAC

Quote from: Ocean 1 on October 23, 2014, 08:38:38 AM
What a difference a year makes!

Kudos to the Camels!!

Great win by the Lady Camels...and they likely get a home playoff game....hopefully they can continue to play well.  Williams is still the best team in the league (IMO) but Conn, Bowdoin, Amherst are pretty good also....hoping all continue to play well and get NCAA berths.

jc2

Massey is predicting a 55% chance of a Tufts win and a 31% chance of a Hamilton victory. It gives Trinity a 34% chance of beating Conn (and Conn a 52% chance of winning).  It predicts only a 10% chance that Bates will beat Williams

Ocean 1

Quote from: All NESCAC on October 23, 2014, 10:20:16 AM
Quote from: Ocean 1 on October 23, 2014, 08:38:38 AM
What a difference a year makes!

Kudos to the Camels!!

Great win by the Lady Camels...and they likely get a home playoff game....hopefully they can continue to play well.  Williams is still the best team in the league (IMO) but Conn, Bowdoin, Amherst are pretty good also....hoping all continue to play well and get NCAA berths.

Agree about Williams as best in NESCAC right now. And Conn will definitely host a Quarterfinal NESCAC match at home. Assuming they win, they will then travel to continue to play.

As for NCAA berths, think based on 2013 selections where 13 New England teams received nods (including automatic qualifiers and at-large bids) that 2014 bodes well for the likes of Williams, Amherst, Brandeis, Conn, Bowdoin and MIT with New England College, Springfield and Roger Williams also potentially vying for spots. Key will be to remain in the top of the NCAA regional poll mix after Week 3 regional selections.

jc2

Entering the last few days of NESCAC play, only Wesleyan is out of the playoffs. Looks like there is a good chance of a 3 way tie for second thru fourth place and the tie break rules will get put to good use. If Amherst, Conn and Bowdoin do indeed win their last game, how will they line up?   

Ocean 1

Quote from: jc2 on October 27, 2014, 07:54:47 AM
Entering the last few days of NESCAC play, only Wesleyan is out of the playoffs. Looks like there is a good chance of a 3 way tie for second thru fourth place and the tie break rules will get put to good use. If Amherst, Conn and Bowdoin do indeed win their last game, how will they line up?

It would seem that if Amherst, Conn and Bowdoin win their last games and finish with the same point total, and assuming Williams wins v. Hamilton, the seeding order should go as follows by virtue of the tie-breaker rule (i.e., both Conn and Bowdoin beat Amherst and Bowdoin beat Conn during the regular season):

- #1 Williams
- #2 Bowdoin
- #3 Conn
- #4 Amherst

Can anyone validate?

jc2

I suspect most people are predicting that Conn, Amherst and Bowdoin will all win their last games and end up in a 3-way tie for second place. Massey lists the chances of winning as: Amherst 72%, Conn 84% and Bowdoin 68%. The chance of all 3 winning is then .72 x .84 x .68 = .41.

Surprisingly, if the Massey odds are accurate, it's more likely that at least one of the teams will lose than all 3 will win.

Only time will tell.

Becks

Quote from: jc2 on October 28, 2014, 07:29:35 AM
I suspect most people are predicting that Conn, Amherst and Bowdoin will all win their last games and end up in a 3-way tie for second place. Massey lists the chances of winning as: Amherst 72%, Conn 84% and Bowdoin 68%. The chance of all 3 winning is then .72 x .84 x .68 = .41.

Surprisingly, if the Massey odds are accurate, it's more likely that at least one of the teams will lose than all 3 will win.

Only time will tell.
Nice! Another fan of probability and statistics, I see.

Ocean 1

Quote from: jc2 on October 28, 2014, 07:29:35 AM
I suspect most people are predicting that Conn, Amherst and Bowdoin will all win their last games and end up in a 3-way tie for second place. Massey lists the chances of winning as: Amherst 72%, Conn 84% and Bowdoin 68%. The chance of all 3 winning is then .72 x .84 x .68 = .41.

Surprisingly, if the Massey odds are accurate, it's more likely that at least one of the teams will lose than all 3 will win.

Only time will tell.

That would of course mean an upset was in the making which is conceivable.

However, with Conn at 5-1-0 in Away games and Bowdoin and Amherst undefeated in Home games this year and with that trio possessing an average GAA of 0.62 and GFA of 1.63 vs. an average GAA of 1.66 and GFA of 1.13 for the Trinity, Wes and Tufts trio...I do not believe an upset is probable. That is, unless of course there are key injuries or  moment(s) of inspiration.

Let the games proceed!

Becks

#254
Quote from: jc2 on October 28, 2014, 07:29:35 AM
I suspect most people are predicting that Conn, Amherst and Bowdoin will all win their last games and end up in a 3-way tie for second place. Massey lists the chances of winning as: Amherst 72%, Conn 84% and Bowdoin 68%. The chance of all 3 winning is then .72 x .84 x .68 = .41.

Surprisingly, if the Massey odds are accurate, it's more likely that at least one of the teams will lose than all 3 will win.

Only time will tell.
Actually, looking back at this. You are correct that the chance of all 3 winning is .41. But that doesn't mean it is more likely that at least one of them will lose, because ties are also possible. Massey provides both teams' chances of winning, and using those figures, we can easily calculate the chances of a tie as well. Here's what Massey says are Conn's, Amherst's and Bowdoin's chances of winning, tying and losing.

Conn - 84%, 9%, 7%
Amherst - 72%, 13%, 15%
Bowdoin - 68%, 13%, 19%

So, if the likelihood of those teams getting a win or a tie is 93%, 85%, and 81%, respectively, the likelihood of all 3 getting a win or a tie is the product of those 3 or 64%, which means that the chances of at least one of the three losing is only 36%. So, while it is more likely that one of the 3 will lose or tie (59%) than it is that all 3 will win (41%), it is more likely that all 3 will win (41%) than that one of them will lose (36%).