Pool C -- 2012

Started by wally_wabash, August 31, 2012, 11:19:36 AM

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MonroviaCat

Thoughts on Baldwin Wallace not being ranked?  Is this because of their financial aid violations or do we think they really just didn't rank above those 10 teams?
Go Cats!

d-train

Quote from: wally_wabash on October 31, 2012, 02:46:36 PM
I know the criteria doesn't specify "wins" against RROs but rather "results" against RROs, but are PLU's losses to Linfield and Cal Lutheran any better or worse than Heidelberg's loss to Mount Union?  I don't think we can really judge that.

PLU did lead in both their losses, and the final tally vs. Linfield was only -7.  Not sure that helps...

smedindy

Quote from: MonroviaCat on October 31, 2012, 02:58:10 PM
Thoughts on Baldwin Wallace not being ranked?  Is this because of their financial aid violations or do we think they really just didn't rank above those 10 teams?

It may have, though their SOS isn't that great either and they lost to Otterbein, whilst Heidelberg has only lost to Mt. Union.

LaCollegeFan

Yeah but just like PLU, LC led both #2 UMHB and #5 Wesley- only lost to Wesley by 3. Plus got a huge boost with Hardin-Simmons being ranked 10th. This one folks, is going to come down to the week 11. Got to love it! ;D

MonroviaCat

Yeah--still some big games for the potential Pool C teams.  Nearly all of those teams have at least one tough game left.  I think Wabash has the easiester road left (of Wally's pool C projections).
Go Cats!

desertcat1

Quote from: MonroviaCat on October 31, 2012, 02:33:09 PM
Quote from: desertcat1 on October 31, 2012, 02:28:09 PM
Wally ,

With only three teams with wins vs rro , Plu has the best lose with rro and a . higher  SOS 6140. than the other Pool C teams  as i see it?   what did i miss?   
Loss to RRO is not a criteria for selection my friend--as they say every year--it's not who you lose to, it's who you beat.  Oh it also has to do with how teams are selected--They are not all thrown in one pot based on the criteria but each Region brings their first team in and if that team is taken then the next team gets selected vs. other teams on the other regions list (or something like that).  I think PLU could still get in (if everything stayed the same as it is right now), but they could certainly use some help.....

Mcat  it says "results..  which if i read it right?  means,  like the little guru says,  it is bette to play and lose than not to have ever played  at all ?  RRO,  + for PLU.. I still like PLU over the last three in the C group as of now.  They should kill the rats too. ++ this week .
Plus it will save a flight too.
" If you are going to be a bear, be a Grizzly"

C.W. Smith

desertcat1

Quote from: d-train on October 31, 2012, 02:58:25 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on October 31, 2012, 02:46:36 PM
I know the criteria doesn't specify "wins" against RROs but rather "results" against RROs, but are PLU's losses to Linfield and Cal Lutheran any better or worse than Heidelberg's loss to Mount Union?  I don't think we can really judge that.

PLU did lead in both their losses, and the final tally vs. Linfield was only -7.  Not sure that helps...

Hey ccowbells,  it does in my book ..  Good luck if we get to dance again i want a nice slow willie song.  :-*
" If you are going to be a bear, be a Grizzly"

C.W. Smith

d-train

#232
Quote from: LaCollegeFan on October 31, 2012, 03:09:54 PM
Yeah but just like PLU, LC led both #2 UMHB and #5 Wesley- only lost to Wesley by 3. Plus got a huge boost with Hardin-Simmons being ranked 10th. This one folks, is going to come down to the week 11. Got to love it! ;D

Yeah, that's a tough break for us.  The greater depth in the West keeps PLU's victory over Willamette from counting as a RRO.  I think most would agree that Willamette deserves to be ranked more than Hardin-Simmons does, right?  (Plus, you may have scored the first 3 vs. UMHB - but a 27 point loss isn't too hot.)

MonroviaCat

Quote from: desertcat1 on October 31, 2012, 03:15:58 PM
Quote from: MonroviaCat on October 31, 2012, 02:33:09 PM
Quote from: desertcat1 on October 31, 2012, 02:28:09 PM
Wally ,

With only three teams with wins vs rro , Plu has the best lose with rro and a . higher  SOS 6140. than the other Pool C teams  as i see it?   what did i miss?   
Loss to RRO is not a criteria for selection my friend--as they say every year--it's not who you lose to, it's who you beat.  Oh it also has to do with how teams are selected--They are not all thrown in one pot based on the criteria but each Region brings their first team in and if that team is taken then the next team gets selected vs. other teams on the other regions list (or something like that).  I think PLU could still get in (if everything stayed the same as it is right now), but they could certainly use some help.....

Mcat  it says "results..  which if i read it right?  means,  like the little guru says,  it is bette to play and lose than not to have ever played  at all ?  RRO,  + for PLU.. I still like PLU over the last three in the C group as of now.  They should kill the rats too. ++ this week .
Plus it will save a flight too.
Yeah--you are right, it does say "results" but it seems like in the past years that winning those games matters while losing them doesn't--but Wally gave a pretty good rationale for his picks.  That being said, we've got 2 more weeks of games and plently of potential changes.....and then there is the potential wackyness that could ensue when they actually sit down and select and place teams into the bracket! :)
Go Cats!

desertcat1

they had a big surprise with two flights last year?  who knows what can happen this year.  8-)
" If you are going to be a bear, be a Grizzly"

C.W. Smith

wally_wabash

Quote from: MonroviaCat on October 31, 2012, 03:24:30 PM
Quote from: desertcat1 on October 31, 2012, 03:15:58 PM
Quote from: MonroviaCat on October 31, 2012, 02:33:09 PM
Quote from: desertcat1 on October 31, 2012, 02:28:09 PM
Wally ,

With only three teams with wins vs rro , Plu has the best lose with rro and a . higher  SOS 6140. than the other Pool C teams  as i see it?   what did i miss?   
Loss to RRO is not a criteria for selection my friend--as they say every year--it's not who you lose to, it's who you beat.  Oh it also has to do with how teams are selected--They are not all thrown in one pot based on the criteria but each Region brings their first team in and if that team is taken then the next team gets selected vs. other teams on the other regions list (or something like that).  I think PLU could still get in (if everything stayed the same as it is right now), but they could certainly use some help.....

Mcat  it says "results..  which if i read it right?  means,  like the little guru says,  it is bette to play and lose than not to have ever played  at all ?  RRO,  + for PLU.. I still like PLU over the last three in the C group as of now.  They should kill the rats too. ++ this week .
Plus it will save a flight too.
Yeah--you are right, it does say "results" but it seems like in the past years that winning those games matters while losing them doesn't--but Wally gave a pretty good rationale for his picks.  That being said, we've got 2 more weeks of games and plently of potential changes.....and then there is the potential wackyness that could ensue when they actually sit down and select and place teams into the bracket! :)

Also note that I'm not projecting future results here either.  Of the seven teams that I've picked for Pool C, 4 of them (Concorida-Moorhead, Elmhurst, Rowan, and Heidelberg) have difficult games remaining.  I would be shocked if all four of those teams get through the next two weeks without losing.  Huntingdon won't have a gimme with Adrian in week 11 either although I have a hard time seeing the Hawks give that one up if they need it to get in and Adrian has already punched their ticket to the playoffs. 

I'll acutally go through and give a breakdown of my thought process, pick by pick, later tonight when I have more time to type that all out. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

desertcat1

" If you are going to be a bear, be a Grizzly"

C.W. Smith

USee

although it won't matter if Elmhurst wins out, they got hurt a little by not having Wheaton appear in the RR. If it was going to happen, this would have been the week. So Wheaton's loss to Albion hurts Elmhurst too!


HScoach

Quote from: d-train on October 31, 2012, 02:58:25 PM
Quote from: wally_wabash on October 31, 2012, 02:46:36 PM
I know the criteria doesn't specify "wins" against RROs but rather "results" against RROs, but are PLU's losses to Linfield and Cal Lutheran any better or worse than Heidelberg's loss to Mount Union?  I don't think we can really judge that.

PLU did lead in both their losses, and the final tally vs. Linfield was only -7.  Not sure that helps...

Heidelberg led Mount 7-0 after the 1st and trailed only 12-7 at the half. 

Their biggest accomplishment may have been to be the first team that scored on the Mount 1st string defense as well as the first to make Mount play an entire 4 quarters.  H'Berg has a very tough 2 weeks to get to 9-1, but if they make it, they're a good enough team to win a playoff game or two as long as they're not facing a #1 or #2 seed.
I find easily offended people rather offensive!

Statistics are like bikinis; what they reveal is interesting, what they hide is essential.

LaCollegeFan

Quote from: d-train on October 31, 2012, 03:23:59 PM
Quote from: LaCollegeFan on October 31, 2012, 03:09:54 PM
Yeah but just like PLU, LC led both #2 UMHB and #5 Wesley- only lost to Wesley by 3. Plus got a huge boost with Hardin-Simmons being ranked 10th. This one folks, is going to come down to the week 11. Got to love it! ;D

Yeah, that's a tough break for us.  The greater depth in the West keeps PLU's victory over Willamette from counting as a RRO.  I think most would agree that Willamette deserves to be ranked more than Hardin-Simmons does, right?  (Plus, you may have scored the first 3 vs. UMHB - but a 27 point loss isn't too hot.)

Sorry wasn't trying to say PLU didn't deserve to be in. Was just stating a fact. Didn't mean to offend ya.