Curious as to thoughts on the NCAA OT policy as it relates to the 22-23 season. As we all know the NCAA eliminated OT in regular season therefore resulting in a significant numbers of tied matches.
Just to review what was demonstrated/concluded further up in the thread: the lack of overtime during the regular season did not change how many games were tied after 90 minutes. Naturally, because some overtime games have game-winning goals, the lack of overtime drove up ties.
Secondly (I may be wrong about this) but dropping sudden victory and having two full OT periods seems to have resulted in too many matches that went to PKs which I’m sure many agree is not the best way to end a match. I believe there were 5 matches determined by PKs in 21-22 and so far after two rounds we have already seen 10 this year in tournament.
You could only conclude that dropping the "golden goal" resulted in too many matches going to PK's
IF there were games in which one team scored in overtime and then the other team equalized. That did not happen in any of the 14 overtime games so far in this year's tournament. 10 of those 14 overtimes games saw no goal scored leading to PK's. 3 games had one team score a single goal and win, and 1 game had a team score twice and win. Thus the lack of the "golden goal" made zero difference in how often games went to PK's. Unless you are making the argument that because an overtime goal could be equalized, teams had less incentive to try to score versus taking their chances in the PK shootout. Not sure I'd buy that that. Most times an overtime will stand up (not be equalized), so I doubt there would have been any significant change in motivation to chase after an overtime goal. Like in the past, inferior teams may feel their interests are best served by playing for the tie and PK's while superior teams prefer to try to score and avoid the chap shoot of a PK shootout.
From the full-season numbers given a few posts above, games that go to overtime had a game-winner ("golden goal") roughly 55% of the time and finished tied 45% of the time. In this year's tournament, only 28.6% of overtime games had an overtime goal scored, while 71.4% remained tied. That begs the question: Are there less goals scored in overtime in the tournament (over time, not just this year) than across the regular season in years past when there was overtime (but no Pks)? Given how much is on the line, do teams play more conservative and take less risks in the tournament than they would in the regular season? It's possible, BUT in a regular season overtime game (thinking of years past, of course), there is no PK shootout so if you can remain tied you get the point and avoid a loss unlike in the tournament where the shootout looms which could end your season. That would seem to motivate better teams to go for the win in a tournament overtime game rather than take their chances in the shootout.
I believe there were 5 matches determined by PKs in 21-22 and so far after two rounds we have already seen 10 this year in tournament.
In 2019, there were 11 overtime games the first weekend, 8 of which went to penalty kick shootouts. Sure, 10 is more than 8, and 10 could very well be the most PK shootouts the opening weekend, but these things do fluctuate and only by looking further back as well as waiting to see what happens in the coming years could any firm conclusions be reached as to an abrupt shift due to changes with overtime (no "golden goal") versus a trend versus randomness. I suspect it's largely random fluctuations. Over time I expect the random overtime game in which both teams score in overtime resulting in a shootout that would not have occurred with the "golden goal" in place. Probably won't happen often enough to significantly change the numbers/percentages of games going to PK shootouts.