In the small sample size that is the NCAA tournament (just 63 games with a 64-team field, versus almost 3900 games across an entire season), the numbers fluctuate significantly from year to year. But, despite all that fluctuation, over time the numbers for the NCAA Tournament closely match that of the regular season. We already established that across entire seasons, approx. 56% of overtime games had a game-winning goal scored while approx. 44% remained tied. Over the past 10 NCAA Tournaments (611 total games, approx. 15% of a full season), the numbers match that fairly closely, with a 54%/46% breakdown.
This year's NCAA Tournament:
- is having more over time games: 14 the first weekend vs. the 10-year high of 12 and 10-year avg. of 9 for the first weekend
- is having more penalty kick shootouts: 10 the first weekend vs. the 10-year high of 8 and 10-year avg. of 5 for the first weekend
but the percentage of overtime games going to penalty kick shootouts, while high is not outside of the range of the past 10 years:
- 71% of overtimes went to PK's the first weekend vs. the 10-year high of 73% and 10-year avg. of 54% for the first weekend
Another thing to note if you dissect the numbers a bit more than I did in the tables above, overtime games tend to go to penalty kick shootouts more so the first weekend (49 of 91, 54%) then in subsequent rounds (14 of 46, 30%). This might be explained by having more mismatches the first weekend and having inferior teams who, for all intents and purposes are playing for a tie and PK's, versus the later stages of the tournament when a higher percentage of teams are genuinely trying to win and avoid PK's. But that is just a theory, because on the other hand, mismatches would be thought to result in goals more so than a battle of evenly matched opponents who could be expected to play to a stalemate.
I think the historical fluctuation from year-to-year with no discernable trend means that we can't jump to conclusions about this year's numbers and where things may be heading. And as has already been clarified, with no equalizing goals in overtime so far in this year's tournament, the elimination of sudden victory (aka "golden goal") in overtime of tournament games has had no impact thus far in this year's tournament.
Anyway, I hope the data helps us have a more informed discussion on the topic.