NESCAC 2012

Started by Giggs, September 07, 2012, 12:39:28 PM

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Giggs

#90
I do not think Bowdoin's chance at Williams is a big if. Bowdoin appears to be on a bit of a run, but Williams went down to the wire in what appeared to be an even game with Wes. I expect a close game, and would not be surprised with either Bowdoin or Williams winning.

And if anyone there at the game uses twitter, how about giving real time thoughts using the hashtag #nescacwsoccer.

Giggs

Can someone please explain, how does Williams AND Bowdoin score at 17:45.

GUBFL

Congrats to Williams for another NESCAC title, but a tremendous showing for Bowdoin this weekend.  It seems in most years that the two NESCAC finalists end up making the NCAA with in some years a 3rd team making it, but this will be interesting to see what the NCAA does between Middlebury, Amherst and Bowdoin.  Don't think all three will go, wonder if Bowdoin did enough this weekend to make it at the expense of one of the other two?

maineman

Based on the NCAA ranking, it would appear that Amherst has the best chance of an AQ followed by Middlebury and then Bowdoin.  We'll all know on Monday at 1:30PM or so.

machine54

Williams is obviously in
Amherst will go
Midd has more wins than bowdoin   beat them in the regular season and has a higher regional ranking so midd before bowdoin but maybe they take bowdoin as well (midd has not been great their last five games) or perhaps neither
Remarkable job by williams after losing two great players to graduation but they get the best players so maybe no surprise after all.
Another choke job by amherst   Up two goals with twenty five to play   shades of their loss earlier in the season to Williams and in 2010 to midd up 3-0 with under 9 minutes to play only to lose to midd 4-3 in overtime.









jc2

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4F-q9O4ts

This is a clip from the Amherst v Colby game last weekend. Shouldn't this have been a red card?

What's going on at Amherst? Can't believe Coach Hughes would condone this behavior.

machine54

Wheaton lost to springfield and looks like Hopkins lost to haver ford   Tomorrow should be very interesting

jc2

In terms of the NCAA Regional Rankings,  games that go to PKs are counted as a tie, correct?

Giggs

Will be interesting to see  what happens with the selections and whether four can get in the tournament.  Last time 4 (or more) were selected was in 2000 when I think 5 teams were in.  I agree that Amherst will get one of the ALB's, with Mid having an inside track on Bowdoin if only three are given, but Mid's losses to Conn and Wes (two low ranked teams) --combined with Bowdoin's strong finish could make this interesting.  Here is hoping that all four get in!

Lastly, that Amherst incident is atrocious.  The coach should have taken her off the field--and it was meritorious of a red card.

Ocean 1

Quote from: jc2 on November 05, 2012, 06:12:29 AM
In terms of the NCAA Regional Rankings,  games that go to PKs are counted as a tie, correct?

Yes...I believe that is correct. As well as in NESCAC.

jc2

Does the selection committee put more weight on championship tournament games or does it weigh all games equally? If it's more or less by the numbers, Bowdoin's great run this weekend only netted them two ties. This means their overall winning pct will drop and their winning pct against ranked teams will stay at .500. Their SOS will improve though. Similarly, Amherst's overall winning pct and record against ranked teams will decline with the tie on Saturday. Are they still the #1 ranked team in the New England region today?

Ocean 1

Quote from: GUBFL on November 04, 2012, 05:51:11 PM
Congrats to Williams for another NESCAC title, but a tremendous showing for Bowdoin this weekend.  It seems in most years that the two NESCAC finalists end up making the NCAA with in some years a 3rd team making it, but this will be interesting to see what the NCAA does between Middlebury, Amherst and Bowdoin.  Don't think all three will go, wonder if Bowdoin did enough this weekend to make it at the expense of one of the other two?

Had the opportunity to watch both Bowdoin games. Against Amherst...they were courageous. Against Williams...they were toe-to-toe. Two tired teams and some of the best NESCAC soccer I've seen. Clear that the new Bowdoin coach is having an impact.

Other observation is that with 62% of the Williams team composed of underclassmen (Frosh/Sophs) and 61% for Bowdoin...both teams should continue as forces in NESCAC soccer.

Ocean 1

Quote from: jc2 on November 05, 2012, 10:37:36 AM
Does the selection committee put more weight on championship tournament games or does it weigh all games equally? If it's more or less by the numbers, Bowdoin's great run this weekend only netted them two ties. This means their overall winning pct will drop and their winning pct against ranked teams will stay at .500. Their SOS will improve though. Similarly, Amherst's overall winning pct and record against ranked teams will decline with the tie on Saturday. Are they still the #1 ranked team in the New England region today?

Found the attached link from D3 Soccer to be helpful in the analysis...http://www.d3soccer.com/columns/around-the-nation/2012/at-large-analysis-and-predictions

Ocean 1

For NCAA's and New England Region, automatic AQ's will go to the following 8 Conference Champs:
- CCC: Roger Williams
- GNAC: Lasell
- LEC: Mass. Boston
- MASCAC: Westfield St.
- NAC: Castleton
- NECC: Lesley
- NESCAC: Williams
- NEWMAC: Springfield

If the NCAA awards 4 of 20 Pool C at-large berths to the New England Region as they did in 2011, based on last Regional Rankings (RR) and weekend results, suggest the following 4 teams will also make the Big Dance:
- Amherst...#1 RR
- Middlebury...#2 RR
- Wheaton...#3 RR
- Toss-up between Bowdoin...#5 RR and Brandeis...#6 RR. But I'll go with Bowdoin based on the numbers... specifically results vs. regionally ranked teams.

Logic on at-large bids...these 5 have the highest numerical ratings of the remaining top regionally ranked candidates in N.E.:
                                W-L %     SOS     Results vs. Ranked Teams

Amherst                     0.900       0.584              0.700
Middlebury                  0.833       0.576              0.900
Wheaton                    0.826       0.539              0.643
Bowdoin                     0.735       0.580              0.563
Brandeis                     0.737       0.635              0.500

Other observation, strongest Strength-of-Schedule (SOS) in New England is Brandeis at 0.635 followed by Williams at 0.613...who also leads NESCAC in this category.