Pool C

Started by Info, February 26, 2005, 08:40:10 PM

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Info

Renaming this topic

Steve

Just noticed that Manchester is within the regional borders of the Central Region. I am still pretty sure about Hope.

Joel Gluskin

Oswego State also lost today as well.  Before today's games, Oswego State was #1 in the East Regional, while Hardin-Simmons was #2 in the South.  Oswego State was also #7 in SOSI based on Pat's earlier calculations.

Does NYU jump Oswego State with their win at Brandeis and become #1 in the East from the committee?  Does NYU now have a better shot than Brandeis even though they split head-to-head and Brandeis has a better overall record?

From quick glances at their schedules, Oswego State did beat Ithaca who was #3 in their region.  Hardin-Simmons appears to be 2-1 vs. regionally ranked teams with a split v. Howard Payne and a win over Trinity.

In my book, Hardin-Simmons joins the Bates-Bowdoin loser and Buena Vista and Wesleyan as Pool C locks.  This only leaves three berths for the likes of Albion, Hope, Trinity or DePauw, Brandeis, NYU, Wheaton, King's, Oswego State etc...

Steve

Sign that you've been worrying about Pool C bids too much...You have to correct your correction.

I can't read the handbook correctly.  Manchester is in the Great Lakes Region. So they aren't a regional opponent for Carthage.

Interesting note: As of about 5pm, when I last checked, 19 ranked teams had lost in their conference tourney or not won their AQ, and 5 more teams had to lose by tomorrow.  Borderline teams are going to have a tough time getting in.

Greg Rizzo

Allen,
King's SOSI is in the top 10 in the country.  Maybe they didn't beat a regioanlly ranked opponent as u say, but 3 of their 4 losses are to Scranton (2x, barely I might add) and Messiah, who were both ranked #1 in the country at some point this season.  They definitely deserve a Pool C bid.  They are 1 of the top 50 teams in the country.

Joel Gluskin

Greg,

Unfortunately for King's, Brandeis, NYU, Wheaton, DePauw or Trinity, Hope, Albion, Oswego State are all 1 of the top 50 teams in the country.  And every single one of them HAS(emphasis added) beaten a regionally ranked team.   And only three of them will get Pool C bids(assuming the bids I mentioned above to Bates/Bowdoin, Buena Vista, Wesleyan, and Hardin-Simmons.

This is what happens when conferences get automatic bids.  It happens all the time in every NCAA tournament; deserving teams are left out.

And when there's at least 8 teams that are all similar fighting for 3 spots, when 1 of those teams hasn't beaten a ranked team, it's going to be extremely difficult to find an argument to take them over someone else.

Allen M. Karon

Joel--

With all the upsets going on, D3Hoops.com as a whole may have their mock board ready before I can get my mock board ready.  I won't start working on it until Sunday morning, while they may be working overnight tonight on it.  I really need sleep tonight.

Pat Coleman

Through Saturday:
1-10
Bates     12.208
Bowdoin    11.700
Millikin    11.545
Scranton    11.375
Wesleyan    11.167
Randolph-Macon    11.077
Springfield    10.957
Southern Maine    10.846
Oswego State    10.846
Emmanuel    10.769

11-20
Staten Island    10.760
Mount St. Mary    10.741
King's    10.708
Howard Payne    10.708
Trinity (Texas)    10.667
DePauw    10.667
Salem State    10.640
Messiah    10.625
Buena Vista    10.591
George Fox    10.500

21-30
Baldwin-Wallace    10.480
Dickinson    10.458
Wheaton (Ill.)    10.409
Albion    10.409
Washington U.    10.350
UW-Stout    10.350
Mary Washington    10.333
Whitworth    10.316
McDaniel    10.308
Hardin-Simmons    10.292

31-40
Brandeis    10.292
Moravian    10.280
DeSales    10.240
New York University    10.208
Greensboro    10.182
Wilmington    10.160
UW-Oshkosh    10.120
Calvin    10.100
Ithaca    10.087
St. Benedict    10.042

41-50
Maine Maritime    10.042
Williams    10.000
New Jersey    10.000
Kenyon    10.000
Catholic    9.962
Fitchburg State    9.926
Alvernia    9.926
Hope    9.905
St. John Fisher    9.875
Johns Hopkins    9.870

51-60
UW-Stevens Point    9.846
Maryville (Mo.)    9.833
William Smith    9.826
Norwich    9.818
Cortland State    9.731
Brockport State    9.720
Simpson    9.714
Worcester State    9.696
Concordia-Moorhead    9.696
Ripon    9.682

61-70
Washington and Jefferson    9.650
Carleton    9.640
Bridgewater (Va.)    9.640
Mount Holyoke    9.636
Maine-Farmington    9.630
Frostburg State    9.565
Webster    9.560
McMurry    9.560
SUNY-Farmingdale    9.520
Richard Stockton    9.500


71-80
Colby-Sawyer    9.440
Lebanon Valley    9.435
Capital    9.400
Westminster (Pa.)    9.360
Oneonta State    9.346
Franklin    9.318
Denison    9.250
Sewanee    9.240
Amherst    9.231
Union    9.217

81-90
St. Lawrence    9.200
Puget Sound    9.190
Lawrence    9.182
Baruch    9.182
Wesley    9.167
Maryville (Tenn.)    9.158
Cal Lutheran    9.143
Illinois Wesleyan    9.125
UW-River Falls    9.050
Transylvania    9.050

91-100
Tufts    9.043
Luther    9.043
Babson    9.038
Western New England    9.000
Pitt-Greensburg    9.000
Chapman    9.000
Austin    9.000
Eastern Connecticut    8.963
Rowan    8.962
Wittenberg    8.960

Greg Rizzo

Joel,
I agree with some things u said.  But King's has no "bad" losses (Scranton 2x, Messiah, & DeSales, though King's beat DeSales 2x as well).  No one in the country beat Scranton at full strength.  Williams beat them in the 1st game of the season with Scranton's best player out.  Scranton has 26 in a row since.  Just my opinion, like you have yours, that King's should be in.

nyballer14

As I have learned through all of the postings there are 5 criteria they use to evaluate what teams receive pool C bids. The unfortunate thing for all of us is that we have NO idea what order of importance they will use in their analysis. All of us are crunching numbers and ranking teams based on SOSI and regional records, which is the logical way to look at it. I just looked at D3hoops board of teams and read the way they looked at the final 4 spots for Pool C, which they listed with SOSI and record against regionally ranked teams. I also know that everyone has a strong case for the team they favor because lets face it, with only 50 teams making the tournament(7 C's) that doesn't leave out 1 or 2 qualified teams, it actually leaves out more than a dozen. There will be less heartache next year due to the expansion of the tournament, but for now we all have to sweat it out.

Now on to my argument for my team, NYU.
I agree that the 20-5 record isn't the most appealing to everyone out there, which obviously ranks them lower in the SOSI (10.375 after last night), but NYU is 5-2 against regionally ranked teams, which is better than the other "bubble teams". Look at the teams D3hoops has contending for the last spots.

Whitworth 16-3 (10.316, 4-3)
Wheaton   19-3 (10.409, 1-2)
Hardin-Simmons 20-4 (10.292, 3-3)

NYU       19-5 (10.375, 5-2)
Isn't it funny to see that the SOSI is still better than 2 of the 3 and has a (.714) winning percentage against regionally ranked teams.

Wash U  1-1  (lost by 3 at one of the toughest places to play in the country) ranked ALL year

Brandeis 1-1 top 15 team  

Staten Island 1-0 (ranked #2 Atlantic)

Mount St. Mary 1-0 (#1 in Atlantic, their only loss this year)

COrtland  1-0 (#5 in East)

To me it should be SOS, not SOSI because just look at the teams on a schedule opposed to only rating it by the wins and losses on points. There are more NCAA teams on NYU's schedule than any other in the country and they still went 5-2 against ranked teams, which says a lot. Their 2 losses are to Wash U and Brandeis and in my opinion are Final Four caliber teams. The committee will do what they think is right for this season and I feel for everyone out there if your team doesn't make it.

nyballer14

My number was wrong on NYU SOSI...I apologize. I see the updated numbers state 10.208.

Steve

I am sure that the NCAA considers Carthage's region record to be 9-11. Their loss to Hope should be a region game, and their win against Manchester is not a region game.  Therefore Wheaton's SOSI is actually 10.273.

Also, the computer for some reason isn't crediting Oshkosh with a region win over Rockford.  That is a 15 point win and makes their SOSI 10.308

Sadly, I think Wheaton will lose out to Oshkosh in the region. And stands little chance, then, nationally.

(Message edited by skafkas on February 27, 2005)

Joel Gluskin

Well Steve, if it makes you feel any better, Pat's mock bracket has Wheaton in.

Steve

I saw that, but with these changes I don't think he would have made the same decision.

If Wheaton had beat Illinois Wesleyan and lost to Millikin, then they would have had a much better shot, with a 10.478 SOSI. They had their chance and knew that they needed to win that game.

Pat Coleman

Just to clarify, Manchester is indeed within 200 miles and is a regional game.