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21
North Region football / Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Last post by Mr. Ypsi on Yesterday at 11:17:38 pm »
Looking ahead to Saturday, two games will definitely affect the voting:  (5-1) IWU @ (5-1) WashU, and (6-0) Marietta @ (5-1) JCU.

Three other games might be interesting:  (4-2) Wheaton @ (3-3) Augie, (5-1) NCC @ (2-4) Carthage, and (3-3) DePauw @ (6-0) Witt.  Any other games that affect voting would be HUGE upsets, or at least anomalously close games.
22
East Region football / Re: FB: New England Small College Athletic Conference
« Last post by DC 53 on Yesterday at 11:15:44 pm »
   First and foremost, if you spend five minutes with Dave Murray you realize that he's not a good hire, but an excellent hire for Hamilton. Unless you lived through it as Hamgrand and I did, you have no idea of the depth of the catastrophe that was created by the two years of Cohen's reign of error in Clinton. Murray treated the players with great dignity, as he helped them to love football again. Not having control of one's schedule is one of the biggest roadblocks to turning around a program in NESCAC. From my experience as a coach, I can state with certainty, that football is the toughest sport to turn around quickly. Turning around a program that has been ravaged by an incompetent autocrat is even more arduous. While admissions and fin. aid have been fair to Murray and staff, they have not received the love that has been alleged to have occurred at other league schools. That's not a criticism of the peer schools; I've said before, when you step between the lines in this league you're on your own. Your currency is your effort, your commitment, and your talent. The level playing field is the same size in every venue.
  New York has the 4th largest population in the country. The Hamilton staff has it covered. The coach who recruits the NYC and LI area did the same at Alfred. In fact, he recruited my son when he was at Alfred. When he saw him at Hamilton, he remarked that my boy had truly found the right school for himself.  Nassau and Suffolk Counties alone have 3 million people and more than 100 public and private schools who play football. It's not Texas or Pennsylvania, but it never pretended to be. It's solid, competitive ball, and it sends its share of players to great programs, and some have made it to the NFL. The top TE prospect in the country played for the HS in the next town (where my wife  teaches) and he's seeing field time as a true freshman at The Ohio State University. Hamilton will find its share of "diamonds in the rough" here and in other parts of the Empire State. 28% of Hamilton's students hail from New England states, so they'll continue to do well there as well as in other parts of the lower 48. The real comfort zone according to the Hamilton staff is within the 4-5 driving window of College Hill. That includes much of NE, Pennsylvania, NJ and even parts of Ohio.
   Kenny Gray will indeed be back next year, as will ALL NESCAC LB Tyler Hudson. Both were not recruited by anyone else in NESCAC, and both were found because of close long-standing relationships between Hamilton staffers and HS coaches. Trust and honesty is huge in recruiting. I've spent most of my professional career advising student-athletes about college choices. It's an inexact science at best, and fakers and charlatans eventually get weeded out. Ultimately, it's about getting the best educational experience, and benefiting from playing a sport that most don't get to enjoy beyond HS.
    As NESCAC Football becomes more universally competitive, the crack (pun intended) research teams will also need to "up" their respective games in order to feed the prognosticating juggernauts that we've all come to know and love!
23
General football / Re: Pool C 2018
« Last post by bleedpurple on Yesterday at 11:12:10 pm »
If you're new to this, I kind of do it stream of consciousness style when I get to the at-large stuff.  Right now, all I've got is a Pool A table (coming below) and the list of ranked teams with some primary criteria data in a table.  I'll compare those teams and write about it as I'm looking at it. 

First the mechanics:
- There are 26 Pool A bids that go to champions of qualifying conferences. 
- Once the Pool A bids are delivered, one Pool B bid will be awarded to teams that do not belong to qualifying conferences (NEWMAC + Thomas More)
- That leaves 5 spots left which will be Pool C.  Everybody who is not already in the tournament to this point is eligible for these bids. 
- The at-large bids are determined by comparing the top-ranked teams remaining from each region using the selection/seeding criteria (check the handbook or FAQs on D3football.com for a primer on all of that).  Each committee member ranks those four teams, points get counted poll style, and the team with the most points goes in. 
- The next team available from the region of the team that just got selected steps in and the comparing/voting process repeats until the field is complete. 
Good?  Great.  Let's do this. 

Pool A
The projected 26 Pool A's as of this moment:
x

Nobody has clinched yet, so this is all pure projection at this point. 

Pool B
Pool B will be a running h2h comparison between the only team available from the South region, Thomas More, and whoever is winning the NEWMAC.  Could I get cute with this and try to justify a team that didn't win the NEWMAC for this spot if they had some sort of criteria advantage?  Maybe.  We'll see how that goes the further we get along this season.  For now though, I'm assuming the winner of the NEWMAC will be the top ranked Pool B-eligible team from the East region.  This week, that's going to be MIT.   

Round 1:
MIT: 6-0, 0-0 vs. RROs, 0.446 (176th) SOS
Thomas More: 5-2, 0-1 vs. RROs, 0.569 (57th)

So right now even though TMC has advantages in SOS and RRO results (0-1 vs. RRO is generally better than 0-0 vs RRO), if we have an undefeated NEWMAC champion, they're going in and that's what I'm doing here.  Thomas More is really only getting this bid in front of the NEWMAC champion if Thomas More wins at St. John's in Week 11 AND the top of the NEWMAC kind of chews itself up over the last month of the season. 

Currently, Thomas More and MIT are both not ranked by their regional committees (thank you fan polls for acting as surrogates this week), so the remaining at large tableaus from each region stand as follows:
East: Wesley, Salisbury, Ithaca, Cortland, Alfred
North: John Carroll, North Central, WashU, Wheaton, Marietta
South: Hardin-Simmons, Case Western Reserve, Johns Hopkins, Centre
West: St. Thomas, UW-Oshkosh, Linfield, Bethel

Not much to note from these lists.  In the North region we have a glut of CCIW teams that don't separate all that easily.  Same kind of deal with the NJAC teams in the East.  I'm not going to disqualify teams from the same conferences yet.  Hopefully we'll get some more clarity in the next week or so. 

And off we go. 

Pool C:
Round 1:
2N John Carroll - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.528 (98th)
2S Hardin-Simmons - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.542 (76th)
3E Wesley - 5-1, 1-1 RRO, 0.472 (157th)
3W St. Thomas - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.490 (136th)
(Wesley, JCU, St. Thomas, Hardin-Simmons)

I mean, this foursome could be half of the quarterfinals.  What a board!  So at this point in the season what we've got are mostly single loss teams that lost to the team we're projecting to win the conference, hence all of the 0-1's vs RROs.  The SOS's are a little bit all over the place, but they will normalize a bit between now and the end of the season.  The differentiator for me on this board is that Wesley played and beat a ranked team (Del Val), nobody else has really beaten anybody and the "result" part of the RRO thing is two tight losses (JCU and Wesley) and a pair of not-so close losses (St. Thomas and HSU).  Wesley is my pick. 

Round 2:
2N John Carroll - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.528 (98th)
2S Hardin-Simmons - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.542 (76th)
5E Salisbury - 6-0, 0-0 RRO, 0.419 (198th)
3W St. Thomas - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.490 (136th)
(JCU, St. Thomas, Hardin-Simmons, Salisbury)

So Salisbury jumps in and Salisbury is totally untested and has a wretched SOS which is going to put them at the end of this line for the time being, despite the 6-0 record.  John Carroll was close to being my first pick here, Salisbury doesn't change that equation for me, so the Streaks come off next.   

Round 3:
4N North Central - 5-1, 1-1 RRO, 0.592 (40th)
2S Hardin-Simmons - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.542 (76th)
5E Salisbury - 6-0, 0-0 RRO, 0.419 (198th)
3W St. Thomas - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.490 (136th)
(St. Thomas, Hardin-Simmons, North Central, Salisbury)

This is where the early season predictions get weird.  North Central has a good profile today, but they still have a game with IWU that, if they win, probably makes them Pool A and if they lose, knocks them way down in the rankings and changes how we evaluate them.  They have played some difficult games so far, so I slotted them in front of Salisbury on my mock ballot.  So that leaves us with St. Thomas and Hardin-Simmons.  I don't see a ton of profile difference between these two teams.  Their one big game both ended in 3-4 score margins but while St. Thomas was one yard away from applying serious pressure to St. John's, the Cowboys benefitted from red zone miscues against UMHB that depressed the margin in that game.  Teeny edge to St. Thomas.   

Round 4:
4N North Central - 5-1, 1-1 RRO, 0.592 (40th)
2S Hardin-Simmons - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.542 (76th)
5E Salisbury - 6-0, 0-0 RRO, 0.419 (198th)
4W UW-Oshkosh - 3-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.649 (8th)
(Hardin-Simmons, UW-Oshkosh, North Central, Salisbury)

Oshkosh is an interesting addition.  They have a not so competitive loss to UWW.  Similar ranked opponent losses exist on the profiles of HSU and NCC.  They are 1-1 outside of the division and I don't know what all to do with that.  They do have a common opponent with North Central (Carthage) but we won't have that result until Saturday (and it isn't likely to help Oshkosh).  It's close here, but I'm slotting Oshkosh between HSU and NCC on my ballot in this round.  HSU is my pick to go in.  They've been on the board from the beginning, they are the #2 team in their region, and have no real red flags.  The truth here is that these first four picks could come off in any order and we'd probably wind up with these same four in as we go to the final round.   

Round 5:
4N North Central - 5-1, 1-1 RRO, 0.592 (40th)
6S Case Western Reserve - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.473 (156th)
5E Salisbury - 6-0, 0-0 RRO, 0.419 (198th)
4W UW-Oshkosh - 3-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.649 (8th)
(UW-Oshkosh, North Central, CWRU, Salisbury)

So, quick sidebar on CWRU.  They seem to have cleared the "good only in the last year of a multi-year QB starter" hill and are just generally good now.  Which is great- they've been building to that for over a decade.  But now they've got get away from  Rochester in the non-league game because it kills them.  So many good teams- in their own city, let alone general geographic region- that they could find a non-league game that helps in years when they don't beat W&J.  The SOS is a total downer for CWRU, the PAC is not great under the top two this year so they won't get any RRO help there.  Their profile just doesn't stack up with Oshkosh or North Central.  In this very moment, I think North Central and Oshkosh have pretty similar profiles.  As I noted earlier, North Central isn't likely to stay in an at-large position (or at least not this at-large position), so I'm going to put Oshkosh in the tournament with the fifth and final pick.  If this were all of the data available, I'd really have to wrestle with how much emphasis to put on Oshkosh's out of division games, how much I like North Central's win over WashU, etc.  This would be super close if these files were closed. 

And so, for now at least, the at-large bids all went off to teams in the conferences that people have been suggesting.  Our fan polling is a good substitute for the regional rankings, but I will say that the regional rankings often value teams from non-power leagues a shade more than our fan polls do.  So runners up from places like the Centennial, North Coast, Northwest, SAA are very much in play.  Lots can happen in the last month of the season.

Thanks, Wally. Awesome as always!
24
... How is the other $24+ million towards athletics improvements planned to be spent? 


Air Norse is a possibility

THIS looks interesting!

25
General football / Re: Pool C 2018
« Last post by wally_wabash on Yesterday at 10:54:00 pm »
If you're new to this, I kind of do it stream of consciousness style when I get to the at-large stuff.  Right now, all I've got is a Pool A table (coming below) and the list of ranked teams with some primary criteria data in a table.  I'll compare those teams and write about it as I'm looking at it. 

First the mechanics:
- There are 26 Pool A bids that go to champions of qualifying conferences. 
- Once the Pool A bids are delivered, one Pool B bid will be awarded to teams that do not belong to qualifying conferences (NEWMAC + Thomas More)
- That leaves 5 spots left which will be Pool C.  Everybody who is not already in the tournament to this point is eligible for these bids. 
- The at-large bids are determined by comparing the top-ranked teams remaining from each region using the selection/seeding criteria (check the handbook or FAQs on D3football.com for a primer on all of that).  Each committee member ranks those four teams, points get counted poll style, and the team with the most points goes in. 
- The next team available from the region of the team that just got selected steps in and the comparing/voting process repeats until the field is complete. 
Good?  Great.  Let's do this. 

Pool A
The projected 26 Pool A's as of this moment:
x

Nobody has clinched yet, so this is all pure projection at this point. 

Pool B
Pool B will be a running h2h comparison between the only team available from the South region, Thomas More, and whoever is winning the NEWMAC.  Could I get cute with this and try to justify a team that didn't win the NEWMAC for this spot if they had some sort of criteria advantage?  Maybe.  We'll see how that goes the further we get along this season.  For now though, I'm assuming the winner of the NEWMAC will be the top ranked Pool B-eligible team from the East region.  This week, that's going to be MIT.   

Round 1:
MIT: 6-0, 0-0 vs. RROs, 0.446 (176th) SOS
Thomas More: 5-2, 0-1 vs. RROs, 0.569 (57th)

So right now even though TMC has advantages in SOS and RRO results (0-1 vs. RRO is generally better than 0-0 vs RRO), if we have an undefeated NEWMAC champion, they're going in and that's what I'm doing here.  Thomas More is really only getting this bid in front of the NEWMAC champion if Thomas More wins at St. John's in Week 11 AND the top of the NEWMAC kind of chews itself up over the last month of the season. 

Currently, Thomas More and MIT are both not ranked by their regional committees (thank you fan polls for acting as surrogates this week), so the remaining at large tableaus from each region stand as follows:
East: Wesley, Salisbury, Ithaca, Cortland, Alfred
North: John Carroll, North Central, WashU, Wheaton, Marietta
South: Hardin-Simmons, Case Western Reserve, Johns Hopkins, Centre
West: St. Thomas, UW-Oshkosh, Linfield, Bethel

Not much to note from these lists.  In the North region we have a glut of CCIW teams that don't separate all that easily.  Same kind of deal with the NJAC teams in the East.  I'm not going to disqualify teams from the same conferences yet.  Hopefully we'll get some more clarity in the next week or so. 

And off we go. 

Pool C:
Round 1:
2N John Carroll - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.528 (98th)
2S Hardin-Simmons - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.542 (76th)
3E Wesley - 5-1, 1-1 RRO, 0.472 (157th)
3W St. Thomas - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.490 (136th)
(Wesley, JCU, St. Thomas, Hardin-Simmons)

I mean, this foursome could be half of the quarterfinals.  What a board!  So at this point in the season what we've got are mostly single loss teams that lost to the team we're projecting to win the conference, hence all of the 0-1's vs RROs.  The SOS's are a little bit all over the place, but they will normalize a bit between now and the end of the season.  The differentiator for me on this board is that Wesley played and beat a ranked team (Del Val), nobody else has really beaten anybody and the "result" part of the RRO thing is two tight losses (JCU and Wesley) and a pair of not-so close losses (St. Thomas and HSU).  Wesley is my pick. 

Round 2:
2N John Carroll - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.528 (98th)
2S Hardin-Simmons - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.542 (76th)
5E Salisbury - 6-0, 0-0 RRO, 0.419 (198th)
3W St. Thomas - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.490 (136th)
(JCU, St. Thomas, Hardin-Simmons, Salisbury)

So Salisbury jumps in and Salisbury is totally untested and has a wretched SOS which is going to put them at the end of this line for the time being, despite the 6-0 record.  John Carroll was close to being my first pick here, Salisbury doesn't change that equation for me, so the Streaks come off next.   

Round 3:
4N North Central - 5-1, 1-1 RRO, 0.592 (40th)
2S Hardin-Simmons - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.542 (76th)
5E Salisbury - 6-0, 0-0 RRO, 0.419 (198th)
3W St. Thomas - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.490 (136th)
(St. Thomas, Hardin-Simmons, North Central, Salisbury)

This is where the early season predictions get weird.  North Central has a good profile today, but they still have a game with IWU that, if they win, probably makes them Pool A and if they lose, knocks them way down in the rankings and changes how we evaluate them.  They have played some difficult games so far, so I slotted them in front of Salisbury on my mock ballot.  So that leaves us with St. Thomas and Hardin-Simmons.  I don't see a ton of profile difference between these two teams.  Their one big game both ended in 3-4 score margins but while St. Thomas was one yard away from applying serious pressure to St. John's, the Cowboys benefitted from red zone miscues against UMHB that depressed the margin in that game.  Teeny edge to St. Thomas.   

Round 4:
4N North Central - 5-1, 1-1 RRO, 0.592 (40th)
2S Hardin-Simmons - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.542 (76th)
5E Salisbury - 6-0, 0-0 RRO, 0.419 (198th)
4W UW-Oshkosh - 3-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.649 (8th)
(Hardin-Simmons, UW-Oshkosh, North Central, Salisbury)

Oshkosh is an interesting addition.  They have a not so competitive loss to UWW.  Similar ranked opponent losses exist on the profiles of HSU and NCC.  They are 1-1 outside of the division and I don't know what all to do with that.  They do have a common opponent with North Central (Carthage) but we won't have that result until Saturday (and it isn't likely to help Oshkosh).  It's close here, but I'm slotting Oshkosh between HSU and NCC on my ballot in this round.  HSU is my pick to go in.  They've been on the board from the beginning, they are the #2 team in their region, and have no real red flags.  The truth here is that these first four picks could come off in any order and we'd probably wind up with these same four in as we go to the final round.   

Round 5:
4N North Central - 5-1, 1-1 RRO, 0.592 (40th)
6S Case Western Reserve - 5-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.473 (156th)
5E Salisbury - 6-0, 0-0 RRO, 0.419 (198th)
4W UW-Oshkosh - 3-1, 0-1 RRO, 0.649 (8th)
(UW-Oshkosh, North Central, CWRU, Salisbury)

So, quick sidebar on CWRU.  They seem to have cleared the "good only in the last year of a multi-year QB starter" hill and are just generally good now.  Which is great- they've been building to that for over a decade.  But now they've got get away from  Rochester in the non-league game because it kills them.  So many good teams- in their own city, let alone general geographic region- that they could find a non-league game that helps in years when they don't beat W&J.  The SOS is a total downer for CWRU, the PAC is not great under the top two this year so they won't get any RRO help there.  Their profile just doesn't stack up with Oshkosh or North Central.  In this very moment, I think North Central and Oshkosh have pretty similar profiles.  As I noted earlier, North Central isn't likely to stay in an at-large position (or at least not this at-large position), so I'm going to put Oshkosh in the tournament with the fifth and final pick.  If this were all of the data available, I'd really have to wrestle with how much emphasis to put on Oshkosh's out of division games, how much I like North Central's win over WashU, etc.  This would be super close if these files were closed. 

And so, for now at least, the at-large bids all went off to teams in the conferences that people have been suggesting.  Our fan polling is a good substitute for the regional rankings, but I will say that the regional rankings often value teams from non-power leagues a shade more than our fan polls do.  So runners up from places like the Centennial, North Coast, Northwest, SAA are very much in play.  Lots can happen in the last month of the season. 
26
North Region football / Re: North Region Fan Poll
« Last post by thunderdog on Yesterday at 10:51:14 pm »
Iím column 5. Looks like I differ from the crowd on 3 teams: Denison, WashU, and Wheaton.

I remain the high vote for Denison at #6, yet survey says Unranked or #11. Iíll admit that ranking the Big Red at #6 somewhat gives them a pass for their opening week loss at Soutwestern, but theyíre thru the heart of their NCAC schedule with a 2-1 record vs what I consider the top 3 opponents in Witt (66-68 loss), Wabash (34-10 win), and DePauw (20-12 win). I think they finish 8-2 and in sole possession of 2nd place in the NCAC. Iíll stick to my guns on this one.

Iím low man for WashU at #10 while survey says #6. This is somewhat tied to where I have Wheaton, which is Unranked (theyíd be my #11) while survey says #8. As a rather close follower of Wheaton football, I think this team has an incredibly high ceiling, but it also has a much lower floor normally associated with said high ceiling. The lack of consistency makes me feel as if Iím watching a completely different team from week-to week and itís also the reason why they donít make my ballot... currently, at least. Anyway, back to WashU. They played a heckuva game vs Wheaton. I was very impressed by QB Johnny Davidson. His escapability was frustrating (as a Wheaton fan) and reminiscent of Russell Wilson (WashU announcer appropriately said he looked like Fran Tarkenton). Their defense played lights out with the 10 sacks. All that said, I still feel the outcome was more a result of ďWheaton playing poorly and not making adjustments when needed, particularly on offenseĒ as opposed to ďWashU played great and earned the WĒ. WashU still has IWU and Millikin on the schedule, if Iím wrong, they should be able to win both those games. IMHO, I donít see WashU beating IWU (youíre welcome Titan fans, I always do what I can to provide your opponents with bulletin board material ;))

27
Multi-Regional Topics / D3hoops.com Classic in Vegas
« Last post by Dave 'd-mac' McHugh on Yesterday at 10:36:50 pm »
We never have done this, but figured it might be good to have a thread surrounding the D3hoops.com Classic in Las Vegas. We are entering our NINTH season!

Here is more information on the teams, matchups, and more for this upcoming year: http://www.d3hoops.com/classic/2018-19/d3hoops-classic/pairings
28
South Region football / Re: South Region Fan Poll
« Last post by BerryCollegeFan on Yesterday at 10:16:33 pm »
wish I had enough time to really study all the South Region teams to be able to put together a ballot...

thanks to those who do put in the time.
29
South Region football / Re: FB: Southern Athletic Association
« Last post by BerryCollegeFan on Yesterday at 10:14:06 pm »
Looks like another rainy game for the Vikings this weekend.
30
East Region football / Re: East Region Fan Poll
« Last post by Machiavelli on Yesterday at 10:05:46 pm »
And FYI, I know you can do what I did above at enough levels to spin just about anything in your favor. Itís like always bringing it Back to Bacon. But I challenge anyone to find a 100 point(on the dot) Delta with any team getting votes in the ERFP poll vs any team in the universe not getting votes. You canít.
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