Top 25 talk

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SaintPaulite

Quote from: Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) on January 19, 2019, 08:53:54 AM

One of the major themes in this argument seems to be that Williams doesn't travel to play good teams the way some of the MIAC schools do.  From a competitive standpoint, that might be an argument to make, but one of the tenets of Division III has always been that a school doesn't get overly rewarded or punished for a decision like that.  Could Williams afford to travel more?  Of course, but a lot of schools couldn't and they deserve an equal shot at things.

St. John's is very good.  The gap between them and Williams in the poll is negligible.  When you get that high, it's a matter of nitpicking.  There's often an argument about NE vs Midwest teams, but often that's about size.  You're not going to find a bigger team anywhere in d3 this year than Williams.  If they have a weakness, it's depth, not toughness.

I love the back and forth, but let's stick to actual issues, with concrete arguments about actual teams as opposed to the old cliches that get thrown back and forth.

It's almost a bit beside the point now, but things aren't equal, never were, despite whatever allowances might be made. Often recruiting battles in D3 are won not by coaches but by the financial aid office. I bet Williams doesn't lose too many of those.

Certainly other schools have their advantages, too, but let's not get carried away there.

Smitty Oom

#12181
From the look of the box score the best player for SJU was absent today... Stokman. SJU should be able to beat Carleton, even in the road without him, but hopefully he will be healthy come Monday for the game against UST.

EDIT: Never mind... looked at D3hoops.com box score and he was on there. My MIAC mobile app had him not playing. Good plug for the d3hoops.com site!! Still he was 3-15 and 0-10 from 3 for a career 50+% 3PT shooter. He basically was absent. Always tough to play in the West Gym in Northfield, Hopefully they can get back to normal for the Monday game.

SaintPaulite

I'm sure their heads never made it past the Twin Cities. If anything this just makes it tougher for St. Thomas because the Johnnies will be desperate to avoid going 0 for the trip now.

Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

For the record... MIAC teams also only have to try and schedule five non-conference games and I know the coaches are thus very picky about who they want to play. They understand they need to pick power-houses so they can improve their SOS situation. Sadly, they shouldn't be playing as many conferences games, but that's a different topic for another day. They also have a lot of power-house programs not that far from them (relatively speaking). That is a compliment to the region and one MIAC teams have been, more of late, willing to take on. But that also means maybe one major road trip a year.

Williams and many in the NESCAC have to schedule a LOT more games and admittedly there is a steep decline in the quality of teams after the NESCAC and NEWMAC in New England and the greater region. While some will lament that Williams and others should schedule MORE powerhouse teams, something not considered is the costs of that. They have to schedule more major trips or tournaments as a result and that adds up financially.

I'm not defending the NESCAC, but I think a lot of people look at situations through the same prism they look at their schools or conferences. Williams has 14 non-conference games ... two of which are taken up by the Little Three ... leaving 12-non conference games. That is more than twice what MIAC teams have to contend with. So on the math that MIAC's schedule one major road trip a year (tournament, multi-day travel, or distance to play an opponent), that means Williams has to do two or more to compensate. Let's assume for a moment schools really can only afford one major trip (minority can afford two and no one is like Thomas More women this year), Williams is now in a situation where this becomes unpractical and expensive - and maybe shut down by budgets and administrators.

Just a different way of looking things from someone who has covered this sport for a long time ... and loves so many different teams and conferences in this Division.

In other words ... things aren't equal and I agree with many that NESCAC, NEWMAC, and other conferences have proven themselves despite what sometimes it looks like on paper to those looking at it through different colored glasses.
Host of Hoopsville. USBWA Executive Board member. Broadcast Director for D3sports.com. Broadcaster for NCAA.com & several colleges. PA Announcer for Gophers & Brigade. Follow me on Twitter: @davemchugh or @d3hoopsville.

Darryl Nester

#12184
How They Fared (Nearly Complete)
Two games just underway, will be edited in later

Top 25

Rank   Pts   TeamW-L   Results
#1625Nebraska Wesleyan17-0def. Coe, 80-72; def. Luther, 94-61
#2580Augustana17-1def. #34 Wheaton (Ill.), 77-73; def. T#37 Illinois Wesleyan, 87-65
#3563Williams15-2LOST to #28 Amherst, 62-63; LOST to T#37 Middlebury, 66-80
#4560Whitman16-1def. Pacific Lutheran, 113-63; def. Puget Sound, 115-81
#5539UW-Oshkosh16-1def. #23 UW-Whitewater, 82-75; def. UW-La Crosse, 72-66
#6468Whitworth15-2def. Puget Sound, 98-84; def. Pacific Lutheran, 71-56
#7444Hamilton15-1def. SUNY Geneseo, 68-43; 01/19 vs. #28 Amherst postponed
#8440St. John's13-2LOST to Carleton, 63-66
#9405UW-Stevens Point11-5LOST to UW-La Crosse, 57-61; LOST to UW-Platteville, 60-61
#10343Swarthmore14-3def. Muhlenberg, 84-54; LOST to Ursinus, 88-94
#11335St. Thomas14-1def. Bethel, 86-75; def. St. Mary's (Minn.), 87-64
#12315MIT15-2def. Springfield, 77-59; def. Babson, 94-90 OT
#13295Marietta15-2def. T#35 Mount Union, 81-69; def. Baldwin Wallace, 71-65
#14271Wabash16-1def. DePauw, 70-59; def. Denison, 85-74
#15254Plattsburgh State12-4LOST to Oswego State, 84-86; LOST to Cortland, 63-65
#16221Randolph-Macon16-2def. Bridgewater (Va.), 87-79 OT; def. Randolph, 92-47
#17190Lynchburg17-1def. Washington and Lee, 82-79; def. Eastern Mennonite, 78-66 OT
#18163Christopher Newport15-2def. Southern Virginia, 77-54; def. Penn State-Harrisburg, 89-61
#19148Pomona-Pitzer16-1def. T#35 Occidental, 70-65; def. Caltech, 93-76
#20141Capital14-3LOST to Heidelberg, 62-63; def. Ohio Northern, 102-49
#21138Wooster14-3def. Denison, 92-59; def. Hiram, 106-80
#22111Rochester12-3def. Carnegie Mellon, 78-70
#23107UW-Whitewater13-4LOST to #5 UW-Oshkosh, 75-82; def. UW-River Falls, 87-85
#2480Salisbury13-4LOST to York (Pa.), 75-90; LOST to Frostburg State, 86-97
#2573Wittenberg13-4def. Ohio Wesleyan, 98-94 OT; def. Oberlin, 92-84 OT


Others receiving votes
Rank   Pts   TeamW-L   Results
#2661Loras14-3def. Luther, 86-78; def. Central, 106-91
#2757Wesleyan13-4def. Pine Manor, 83-57; def. Connecticut College, 78-70
#2840Amherst13-2def. #3 Williams, 63-62; 01/19 vs. #7 Hamilton postponed
T#2936Gordon16-2def. Salve Regina, 79-70; LOST to Western New England, 88-94
T#2936Nichols16-2def. Roger Williams, 89-84; def. Curry, 99-79
#3121North Central (Ill.)   15-3def. Carthage, 67-63; def. Carroll, 75-52
T#3212New Jersey City13-5def. Kean, 84-60; LOST to Rowan, 80-84
T#3212Arcadia15-2def. Widener, 73-66; def. Lycoming, 78-51
#3411Wheaton (Ill.)13-5LOST to #2 Augustana, 73-77; def. North Park, 77-65
T#358Mount Union14-3LOST to #13 Marietta, 69-81; def. Wilmington, 86-84
T#358Occidental14-3LOST to #19 Pomona-Pitzer, 65-70; LOST to Redlands, 97-101
T#374Illinois Wesleyan11-7def. Elmhurst, 82-80; LOST to #2 Augustana, 65-87
T#374Middlebury14-5def. Albertus Magnus, 103-92; def. #3 Williams, 80-66
T#374Linfield13-4def. George Fox, 83-69; def. Pacific, 105-83
T#401Centre15-3def. Millsaps, 84-55; def. Birmingham-Southern, 84-74
T#401Guilford13-5def. Ferrum, 75-44; def. Bridgewater (Va.), 78-55

Titan Q

#12185
Probably a bit too early to think about this is tons of details, but...

I am thinking the Men's Basketball Committee is going to have a big challenge with bracketing this year due to the power in the Central and West.  Some current numbers per Matt Snyder - https://tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-regional-rankings.html.

RPI #1 - Nebraska Wesleyan (W): 1.000 WP, 0.589 SOS
RPI #2 - Whitman (W): 0.941 WP, 0.583 SOS
RPI #4 - Loras (W): 0.824 WP, 0.597 SOS
RPI #6 - Augustana (C): .944 WP, 0.547 SOS
RPI #7 - UW-Oshkosh (C): .941 WP, 0.538 SOS
RPI #11 - St. Thomas (W): 0.933 WP, 0.532 SOS
RPI #14- UW-Stevens Point (C): .688 WP, .607 SOS

(This doesn't even include Whitworth.)

I think Nebraska Wesleyan, Augustana, and Whitman are the overall top 3 seeds at the moment based on their resumes relative to the criteria.  Is there a way to put all 3 in different quadrants?  Put Whitman/Whitworth in a quadrant with a bunch of weaker teams from some other regions(s)?  Then have NWU and Augustana heading up two other quadrants? Can you do that with the flight rules?

Now consider UW-Oshkosh...will probably be ranked #4 by D3hoops.com tomorrow.  Could be a top 4 seed by criteria by Selection Sunday - NWU, Augustana, Whitman, UW-Oshkosh could easily be your best 4 teams.  Where does Oshkosh go?

Bracketing is always hard because of the imbalance in regional power, but it seems to me the problem is magnified this year.  The NE is strong, but the East, Atlantic, Mid-Atlantic, and South seem weak.  And even the Great Lakes seems down compared to most years.

We are a long, long way from knowing what this picture will look like on Selection Sunday, but seems to me the committee is going to have get very creative to avoid having 2 brackets of death and 2 very weak brackets.  If they stay true to the flight/travel rules, I think this is gonna be dicey.

#BracketOfDeath10YearAnniversary

FCGrizzliesGrad

Do you think if there are 2 NWC and 2 SCIAC teams in that they'd just stick them all together the first weekend or could we see one hosted by Whitman and one hosted by Pomona-Pitzer?

Quote from: Titan Q on January 20, 2019, 04:58:13 PM
I think Nebraska Wesleyan, Augustana, and Whitman are the overall top 3 seeds at the moment based on their resumes relative to the criteria.  Is there a way to put all 3 in different quadrants?  Put Whitman/Whitworth in a quadrant with a bunch of weaker teams from some other regions(s)?  Then have NWU and Augustana heading up two other quadrants? Can you do that with the flight rules?
I don't think there's enough teams in the upper midwest to keep Nebraska Wesleyan and Augustana separated. You could ship a few weak teams from the northeast out to Whitman where teams have to fly anyways but I think you'd still have to have a pod shipped well out of position the 2nd weekend to make it work.
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Titan Q

#12187
Quote from: FCGrizzliesGrad on January 20, 2019, 05:25:34 PM
Do you think if there are 2 NWC and 2 SCIAC teams in that they'd just stick them all together the first weekend or could we see one hosted by Whitman and one hosted by Pomona-Pitzer?

Quote from: Titan Q on January 20, 2019, 04:58:13 PM
I think Nebraska Wesleyan, Augustana, and Whitman are the overall top 3 seeds at the moment based on their resumes relative to the criteria.  Is there a way to put all 3 in different quadrants?  Put Whitman/Whitworth in a quadrant with a bunch of weaker teams from some other regions(s)?  Then have NWU and Augustana heading up two other quadrants? Can you do that with the flight rules?
I don't think there's enough teams in the upper midwest to keep Nebraska Wesleyan and Augustana separated. You could ship a few weak teams from the northeast out to Whitman where teams have to fly anyways but I think you'd still have to have a pod shipped well out of position the 2nd weekend to make it work.

Right.

I'm tellin' ya, it's dicey.

#BracketOfDeath10YearAnniversary

Dave 'd-mac' McHugh



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sac

Neb Wesleyan is a tough host to fix because their 500 mile radius includes relatively few options to avoid flights.  Which narrows even more if end up hosting the sweet 16 round and pretty impossible to avoid at least one flight. 


CCIW fans ought to keep in mind you can get Illinois Wesleyan, Wheaton and North Central to Nebraska Wesleyan without a flight but not Elmhurst.

Titan Q

Quote from: sac on January 20, 2019, 05:46:36 PM
Neb Wesleyan is a tough host to fix because their 500 mile radius includes relatively few options to avoid flights.  Which narrows even more if end up hosting the sweet 16 round and pretty impossible to avoid at least one flight. 


CCIW fans ought to keep in mind you can get Illinois Wesleyan, Wheaton and North Central to Nebraska Wesleyan without a flight but not Elmhurst.

Yes, having Nebraska Wesleyan and Whitman as top 4 national seeds causes all kinds of problems for the committee based on the travel rules.

SaintPaulite

UMAC champ should be able to get Lincoln unless it's St. Scholastica. Grinnell could get there, but not sure anyone else in that league that is likely to win could.

Can get there from western Wisconsin, maybe not eastern. Chicagoland, but not Chicago. St. Louis can get there. How much fun would Grinnell vs. Greenville be?

Send some of those teams the eastern teams usually fatten up on in the early rounds out west. Flying is flying, send Pitzer or someone east and see what they can do.

HCAC and the MIAA can get to Augustana. Capital can if they're in it.

If the top 4 is NWU, Augie, Whitman and Oshkosh...that might become difficult. Well, it would be impossible, obviously. But I think you could get 3 of the 4 and center the 4th quad maybe around Swarthmore if they're in it, or Ramapo or Hamilton. If the true top 4 is none of them, then there should be no consideration given to "home court" bc none of them have earned it.

Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

Quote from: SaintPaulite on January 20, 2019, 08:51:50 PM
UMAC champ should be able to get Lincoln unless it's St. Scholastica. Grinnell could get there, but not sure anyone else in that league that is likely to win could.

Can get there from western Wisconsin, maybe not eastern. Chicagoland, but not Chicago. St. Louis can get there. How much fun would Grinnell vs. Greenville be?

Send some of those teams the eastern teams usually fatten up on in the early rounds out west. Flying is flying, send Pitzer or someone east and see what they can do.

HCAC and the MIAA can get to Augustana. Capital can if they're in it.

If the top 4 is NWU, Augie, Whitman and Oshkosh...that might become difficult. Well, it would be impossible, obviously. But I think you could get 3 of the 4 and center the 4th quad maybe around Swarthmore if they're in it, or Ramapo or Hamilton. If the true top 4 is none of them, then there should be no consideration given to "home court" bc none of them have earned it.

Yes ... teams can get to those locations, but you also have to remember they have to get teams OUT of there to balance things off. That's usually the harder equation. Can they get some of the secondary teams (SJU or UST, second WIAC, second CCIW, etc.) out of the region and eastward (most likely) to allow a number of the teams you mentioned to those destinations. Or do they have to send those teams you mentioned to squads in the Great Lakes or the western side of the east coast to fill the holes those teams in the Central/West cannot because they cannot get there.

That's the real rub.
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SaintPaulite

Quote from: Dave 'd-mac' McHugh on January 20, 2019, 01:22:53 PM
For the record... MIAC teams also only have to try and schedule five non-conference games and I know the coaches are thus very picky about who they want to play. They understand they need to pick power-houses so they can improve their SOS situation. Sadly, they shouldn't be playing as many conferences games, but that's a different topic for another day. They also have a lot of power-house programs not that far from them (relatively speaking). That is a compliment to the region and one MIAC teams have been, more of late, willing to take on. But that also means maybe one major road trip a year.

Williams and many in the NESCAC have to schedule a LOT more games and admittedly there is a steep decline in the quality of teams after the NESCAC and NEWMAC in New England and the greater region. While some will lament that Williams and others should schedule MORE powerhouse teams, something not considered is the costs of that. They have to schedule more major trips or tournaments as a result and that adds up financially.

I'm not defending the NESCAC, but I think a lot of people look at situations through the same prism they look at their schools or conferences. Williams has 14 non-conference games ... two of which are taken up by the Little Three ... leaving 12-non conference games. That is more than twice what MIAC teams have to contend with. So on the math that MIAC's schedule one major road trip a year (tournament, multi-day travel, or distance to play an opponent), that means Williams has to do two or more to compensate. Let's assume for a moment schools really can only afford one major trip (minority can afford two and no one is like Thomas More women this year), Williams is now in a situation where this becomes unpractical and expensive - and maybe shut down by budgets and administrators.

Just a different way of looking things from someone who has covered this sport for a long time ... and loves so many different teams and conferences in this Division.

In other words ... things aren't equal and I agree with many that NESCAC, NEWMAC, and other conferences have proven themselves despite what sometimes it looks like on paper to those looking at it through different colored glasses.

The convo has kind of moved on, but...

The lack of conference games in the NESCAC is created by the NESCAC. It's not a bug; it's a feature. If they wanted to play double round robin because it's just so hard to make a non-conference schedule, they could and they would. They don't and don't, bceause that's a problem they want. Just like the West Coast Conference in D1 dropped 2 conference games so that Gonzaga could schedule more non-conference.

As for the MIAC, I think it would be interesting if they did what Scottish soccer does: split the league. You'd play everyone once 10 games, and then the top 5 and bottom 6 split. Top 5 makes the conference tournament right then, and the bottom 6 play for the last chance spot. Details to be worked out of course, but I think the general idea makes sense.

SaintPaulite

Quote from: Dave 'd-mac' McHugh on January 20, 2019, 08:58:33 PM
Quote from: SaintPaulite on January 20, 2019, 08:51:50 PM
UMAC champ should be able to get Lincoln unless it's St. Scholastica. Grinnell could get there, but not sure anyone else in that league that is likely to win could.

Can get there from western Wisconsin, maybe not eastern. Chicagoland, but not Chicago. St. Louis can get there. How much fun would Grinnell vs. Greenville be?

Send some of those teams the eastern teams usually fatten up on in the early rounds out west. Flying is flying, send Pitzer or someone east and see what they can do.

HCAC and the MIAA can get to Augustana. Capital can if they're in it.

If the top 4 is NWU, Augie, Whitman and Oshkosh...that might become difficult. Well, it would be impossible, obviously. But I think you could get 3 of the 4 and center the 4th quad maybe around Swarthmore if they're in it, or Ramapo or Hamilton. If the true top 4 is none of them, then there should be no consideration given to "home court" bc none of them have earned it.

Yes ... teams can get to those locations, but you also have to remember they have to get teams OUT of there to balance things off. That's usually the harder equation. Can they get some of the secondary teams (SJU or UST, second WIAC, second CCIW, etc.) out of the region and eastward (most likely) to allow a number of the teams you mentioned to those destinations. Or do they have to send those teams you mentioned to squads in the Great Lakes or the western side of the east coast to fill the holes those teams in the Central/West cannot because they cannot get there.

That's the real rub.

Well job 1 is getting teams to Nebraska Wesleyan, as it stands, and as many of the right teams as you can. Everyone east should move west that can. That's why I looked at who can get to Augustana from Indiana or Ohio...etc. Fly teams out west and fly west teams that are going to fly anyway back east to back fill. It would be a complete injustice to put Whitman, Whitworth and Pitzer in the same quad. But they did an even more stupid thing last year with Oshkosh, Wittenberg and Marietta and they weren't even forced into that.

So...yeah.