Pool C - 2017

Started by wally_wabash, October 09, 2017, 09:11:08 AM

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wally_wabash

On CWRU...

XTP makes a ton of great observations.  I also want to point out that while yesterday's rankings weren't great for the Spartans, it's not a doomsday situation either.  They are going to get a big SOS boost over the next two weeks.  I'm not going to do all the math on this, but to give you an idea from an example that is really easy for me to look up, last week Frostburg had a 0.511 SOS ranked 109th in the division.  Not awesome, not terrible.  Good enough to not make you want to count them out.  Then they played 0-7 Southern Virginia and this week that SOS is 0.459 ranked 194th in the division.  Now it looks like Frostburg has played one of the weakest schedules in the division.  That's how much this thing can change.  Over the next two weeks, I expect that CWRU's SOS number will approach 0.48, they might even pass W&J in SOS, and I think if they do get all the way to 10-0, with the SOS increase, they'll be next in line after Hardin-Simmons. 

Also, CWRU may not even wind up in Pool C thanks to the resurgent GCC Wolverines.  That would put W&J in the hot seat. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

HansenRatings

Wally, when you do these projections, do you ever reorder the regional rankings if you feel the most deserving Pool C team isn't on the board? We know the National Committee does this, and I feel like IWU is probably the most-deserving Pool C team in the entire country. I would consider their exclusion from the tournament, if they win out, to be the biggest "miss" by the committee since the Pool system started.
Follow me on Twitter. I post fun graphs sometimes. @LogHanRatings

wally_wabash

Quote from: HansenRatings on November 02, 2017, 11:31:04 AM
Wally, when you do these projections, do you ever reorder the regional rankings if you feel the most deserving Pool C team isn't on the board? We know the National Committee does this, and I feel like IWU is probably the most-deserving Pool C team in the entire country. I would consider their exclusion from the tournament, if they win out, to be the biggest "miss" by the committee since the Pool system started.

The one that I do before we get the regional rankings (where I'm using the fan polls as surrogate rankings) I will tinker with the order where the voters are missing something from the criteria that's obvious.  Not that the fan polls are "wrong" just that they aren't bound by the NCAA's criteria.  I don't edit the official NCAA rankings though.  I almost did yesterday though. 

It's true that the national selection committee does reserve the right to reorder the regional rankings, but I think past chairs have said that they don't really do this- for football.  I believe Dave McHugh has reported that for basketball, they do tinker with the rankings.  My guess here is that if this were the list submitted by the North RAC to the national committee on 11/11, they'd change it, specifically the IWU/DePauw order.  It's just so obviously incorrect and not representative of the seasons those two teams have had. 
"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

SaintsFAN

#153
Quote from: wally_wabash on November 02, 2017, 09:09:22 AM
Also, CWRU may not even wind up in Pool C thanks to the resurgent GCC Wolverines.  That would put W&J in the hot seat.

Nope :)

That would be some kind of resurgence!

EDIT:  I'm wrong. 
AMC Champs: 1991-1992-1993-1994-1995
HCAC Champs: 2000, 2001
PAC Champs:  2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016
Bridge Bowl Champs:  1990-1991-1992-1993-1994-1995-2002-2003-2006-2008-2009-2010-2011-2012-2013 (SERIES OVER)
Undefeated: 1991, 1995, 2001, 2009, 2010, 2015
Instances where MSJ quit the Bridge Bowl:  2

AO

Quote from: wally_wabash on November 02, 2017, 11:38:54 AM
Quote from: HansenRatings on November 02, 2017, 11:31:04 AM
Wally, when you do these projections, do you ever reorder the regional rankings if you feel the most deserving Pool C team isn't on the board? We know the National Committee does this, and I feel like IWU is probably the most-deserving Pool C team in the entire country. I would consider their exclusion from the tournament, if they win out, to be the biggest "miss" by the committee since the Pool system started.

Not that the fan polls are "wrong" just that they aren't bound by the NCAA's criteria. 
The East RAC doesn't seem to feel very bound by the criteria either...

HansenRatings

Quote from: wally_wabash on November 02, 2017, 11:38:54 AM
Quote from: HansenRatings on November 02, 2017, 11:31:04 AM
Wally, when you do these projections, do you ever reorder the regional rankings if you feel the most deserving Pool C team isn't on the board? We know the National Committee does this, and I feel like IWU is probably the most-deserving Pool C team in the entire country. I would consider their exclusion from the tournament, if they win out, to be the biggest "miss" by the committee since the Pool system started.

The one that I do before we get the regional rankings (where I'm using the fan polls as surrogate rankings) I will tinker with the order where the voters are missing something from the criteria that's obvious.  Not that the fan polls are "wrong" just that they aren't bound by the NCAA's criteria.  I don't edit the official NCAA rankings though.  I almost did yesterday though. 

It's true that the national selection committee does reserve the right to reorder the regional rankings, but I think past chairs have said that they don't really do this- for football.  I believe Dave McHugh has reported that for basketball, they do tinker with the rankings.  My guess here is that if this were the list submitted by the North RAC to the national committee on 11/11, they'd change it, specifically the IWU/DePauw order.  It's just so obviously incorrect and not representative of the seasons those two teams have had.

They can get away with saying that because, until last season, those final regional rankings weren't released. I've spoken with coaches who had been on both committees in the past, and yeah, it happens a little more often than I think most people realize.
Follow me on Twitter. I post fun graphs sometimes. @LogHanRatings

Ralph Turner

Quote from: wally_wabash on November 02, 2017, 11:38:54 AM
Quote from: HansenRatings on November 02, 2017, 11:31:04 AM
Wally, when you do these projections, do you ever reorder the regional rankings if you feel the most deserving Pool C team isn't on the board? We know the National Committee does this, and I feel like IWU is probably the most-deserving Pool C team in the entire country. I would consider their exclusion from the tournament, if they win out, to be the biggest "miss" by the committee since the Pool system started.

The one that I do before we get the regional rankings (where I'm using the fan polls as surrogate rankings) I will tinker with the order where the voters are missing something from the criteria that's obvious.  Not that the fan polls are "wrong" just that they aren't bound by the NCAA's criteria.  I don't edit the official NCAA rankings though.  I almost did yesterday though. 

It's true that the national selection committee does reserve the right to reorder the regional rankings, but I think past chairs have said that they don't really do this- for football.  I believe Dave McHugh has reported that for basketball, they do tinker with the rankings.  My guess here is that if this were the list submitted by the North RAC to the national committee on 11/11, they'd change it, specifically the IWU/DePauw order. It's just so obviously incorrect and not representative of the seasons those two teams have had.
;)

You are too modest.  If Wabash has its say about the Dannies, then 11/11 will take care of the IWU/DePauw order. Monon Bell game with national implications!

Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

Quote from: HansenRatings on November 02, 2017, 11:31:04 AM
Wally, when you do these projections, do you ever reorder the regional rankings if you feel the most deserving Pool C team isn't on the board? We know the National Committee does this, and I feel like IWU is probably the most-deserving Pool C team in the entire country. I would consider their exclusion from the tournament, if they win out, to be the biggest "miss" by the committee since the Pool system started.

The national committee does it prior to the rankings being released. So if the national committee felt IWU should be higher, they would already be higher.

The RACs rank and send it on to the national committee basically as a recommendation. If the national committee concurs, that's that. If they disagree, they adjust. Then it is released.

So I doubt Wally would reorder considering it would throw the entire projections out of order. What we see in the regional rankings is how the national committee has set those regions and thus how we should forecast selections and matchups accordingly.
Host of Hoopsville. USBWA Executive Board member. Broadcast Director for D3sports.com. Broadcaster for NCAA.com & several colleges. PA Announcer for Gophers & Brigade. Follow me on Twitter: @davemchugh or @d3hoopsville.

HansenRatings

Quote from: Dave 'd-mac' McHugh on November 02, 2017, 01:46:22 PM
Quote from: HansenRatings on November 02, 2017, 11:31:04 AM
Wally, when you do these projections, do you ever reorder the regional rankings if you feel the most deserving Pool C team isn't on the board? We know the National Committee does this, and I feel like IWU is probably the most-deserving Pool C team in the entire country. I would consider their exclusion from the tournament, if they win out, to be the biggest "miss" by the committee since the Pool system started.

The national committee does it prior to the rankings being released. So if the national committee felt IWU should be higher, they would already be higher.

The RACs rank and send it on to the national committee basically as a recommendation. If the national committee concurs, that's that. If they disagree, they adjust. Then it is released.

So I doubt Wally would reorder considering it would throw the entire projections out of order. What we see in the regional rankings is how the national committee has set those regions and thus how we should forecast selections and matchups accordingly.

Are you saying the national committee does this for every iteration of the rankings, or just the final?
Follow me on Twitter. I post fun graphs sometimes. @LogHanRatings

Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

Quote from: HansenRatings on November 02, 2017, 02:03:18 PM
Quote from: Dave 'd-mac' McHugh on November 02, 2017, 01:46:22 PM
Quote from: HansenRatings on November 02, 2017, 11:31:04 AM
Wally, when you do these projections, do you ever reorder the regional rankings if you feel the most deserving Pool C team isn't on the board? We know the National Committee does this, and I feel like IWU is probably the most-deserving Pool C team in the entire country. I would consider their exclusion from the tournament, if they win out, to be the biggest "miss" by the committee since the Pool system started.

The national committee does it prior to the rankings being released. So if the national committee felt IWU should be higher, they would already be higher.

The RACs rank and send it on to the national committee basically as a recommendation. If the national committee concurs, that's that. If they disagree, they adjust. Then it is released.

So I doubt Wally would reorder considering it would throw the entire projections out of order. What we see in the regional rankings is how the national committee has set those regions and thus how we should forecast selections and matchups accordingly.

Are you saying the national committee does this for every iteration of the rankings, or just the final?

Every. There was one year, at least for basketball, where the committees weren't allowed to touch the in-season ones and just make suggestions. That was several years ago after some changes to the process. However, that was quickly scuttled because of how many problems it created unintentionally.

Every single regional ranking that is preoduced by the national committee has been effectively been gone over by the national committee and any changes they want to make are made.

Something that I have been reminded of often: the RAC stands for Regional Advisory Committee. Their role is to advise. The national committee instructs them how they want them to conduct the regional work. They then trust the RAC to the bulk of that work and given them a sense of the region, but if the national committee finds fault in their process or decisions, they will make the ultimate decision(s).

Every week.
Host of Hoopsville. USBWA Executive Board member. Broadcast Director for D3sports.com. Broadcaster for NCAA.com & several colleges. PA Announcer for Gophers & Brigade. Follow me on Twitter: @davemchugh or @d3hoopsville.

HansenRatings

Quote from: Dave 'd-mac' McHugh on November 02, 2017, 02:10:38 PM
Quote from: HansenRatings on November 02, 2017, 02:03:18 PM
Quote from: Dave 'd-mac' McHugh on November 02, 2017, 01:46:22 PM
Quote from: HansenRatings on November 02, 2017, 11:31:04 AM
Wally, when you do these projections, do you ever reorder the regional rankings if you feel the most deserving Pool C team isn't on the board? We know the National Committee does this, and I feel like IWU is probably the most-deserving Pool C team in the entire country. I would consider their exclusion from the tournament, if they win out, to be the biggest "miss" by the committee since the Pool system started.

The national committee does it prior to the rankings being released. So if the national committee felt IWU should be higher, they would already be higher.

The RACs rank and send it on to the national committee basically as a recommendation. If the national committee concurs, that's that. If they disagree, they adjust. Then it is released.

So I doubt Wally would reorder considering it would throw the entire projections out of order. What we see in the regional rankings is how the national committee has set those regions and thus how we should forecast selections and matchups accordingly.

Are you saying the national committee does this for every iteration of the rankings, or just the final?

Every. There was one year, at least for basketball, where the committees weren't allowed to touch the in-season ones and just make suggestions. That was several years ago after some changes to the process. However, that was quickly scuttled because of how many problems it created unintentionally.

Every single regional ranking that is preoduced by the national committee has been effectively been gone over by the national committee and any changes they want to make are made.

Something that I have been reminded of often: the RAC stands for Regional Advisory Committee. Their role is to advise. The national committee instructs them how they want them to conduct the regional work. They then trust the RAC to the bulk of that work and given them a sense of the region, but if the national committee finds fault in their process or decisions, they will make the ultimate decision(s).

Every week.

Thanks for clarifying. I was under the impression the RACs were given autonomy to produce their rankings according to the established criteria, and the national committee didn't get involved until the final week of the process.
Follow me on Twitter. I post fun graphs sometimes. @LogHanRatings

Dave 'd-mac' McHugh

Quote from: HansenRatings on November 02, 2017, 02:20:15 PM
Quote from: Dave 'd-mac' McHugh on November 02, 2017, 02:10:38 PM
Quote from: HansenRatings on November 02, 2017, 02:03:18 PM
Quote from: Dave 'd-mac' McHugh on November 02, 2017, 01:46:22 PM
Quote from: HansenRatings on November 02, 2017, 11:31:04 AM
Wally, when you do these projections, do you ever reorder the regional rankings if you feel the most deserving Pool C team isn't on the board? We know the National Committee does this, and I feel like IWU is probably the most-deserving Pool C team in the entire country. I would consider their exclusion from the tournament, if they win out, to be the biggest "miss" by the committee since the Pool system started.

The national committee does it prior to the rankings being released. So if the national committee felt IWU should be higher, they would already be higher.

The RACs rank and send it on to the national committee basically as a recommendation. If the national committee concurs, that's that. If they disagree, they adjust. Then it is released.

So I doubt Wally would reorder considering it would throw the entire projections out of order. What we see in the regional rankings is how the national committee has set those regions and thus how we should forecast selections and matchups accordingly.

Are you saying the national committee does this for every iteration of the rankings, or just the final?

Every. There was one year, at least for basketball, where the committees weren't allowed to touch the in-season ones and just make suggestions. That was several years ago after some changes to the process. However, that was quickly scuttled because of how many problems it created unintentionally.

Every single regional ranking that is preoduced by the national committee has been effectively been gone over by the national committee and any changes they want to make are made.

Something that I have been reminded of often: the RAC stands for Regional Advisory Committee. Their role is to advise. The national committee instructs them how they want them to conduct the regional work. They then trust the RAC to the bulk of that work and given them a sense of the region, but if the national committee finds fault in their process or decisions, they will make the ultimate decision(s).

Every week.

Thanks for clarifying. I was under the impression the RACs were given autonomy to produce their rankings according to the established criteria, and the national committee didn't get involved until the final week of the process.

Nope... I think there was an attempt to try that, but there is no way to make sure the RACs do a consistent job across the board in all regions if the national committee isn't working on them and talking with them all the time. Furthermore, it is the regional rankings technically according to the national committee, so they need to have a say.
Host of Hoopsville. USBWA Executive Board member. Broadcast Director for D3sports.com. Broadcaster for NCAA.com & several colleges. PA Announcer for Gophers & Brigade. Follow me on Twitter: @davemchugh or @d3hoopsville.

Bob.Gregg

The national committee is not going to leave a PAC 10-0 team out of the playoffs.  It's not going to happen.
Been wrong before.  Will be wrong again.

Ralph Turner

Quote from: Bob.Gregg on November 03, 2017, 05:13:39 PM
The national committee is not going to leave a PAC 10-0 team out of the playoffs.  It's not going to happen.
I agree. I cannot see that happening either.

Ralph Turner

#164
South Region Projections
1. Mary Hardin-Baylor 9-0                          Pool B #1
2. Hardin-Simmons 7-1 +                           Pool C #1
3. Berry 9-0                                               SAA Pool A
4. Washington & Jefferson 9-0                      Pres AC Pool A
5. Johns Hopkins 8-1                                  Projecting Centennial Pool A
6. Centre 8-1
7. Case Western Reserve 9-0                        a 10-0 CWRU Pool C #5
8. Franklin & Marshall 8-1
9. Huntingdon 7-1 +                                       USA South Pool A
10. Westminster (Pa.) 6-3



ODAC Pool A bid   ???